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Pulling the Goalie with 6+ Minutes Left was Soooo Dumb

WATTAGE4451 said:
How many 4 goal comebacks with under 6 minutes have you seen ever? It's not 1 in 100, it's 1 in several million. If cou vant maintain possession and score within 2 minutes, odds becomes 1 to several billions. The other team knows how much time is left. If you stay 5 on 5 and lose possession, instead of icing it, they start just passing it around if they hain possession and kill so much time you have no chance either.

A few 3 goal comebacks with empty net and 4 ?instead have happened including during the playoffs.

Odds are in billions anyways. If you can't maintain possession with 6 players, what makes you think they would have been able to with 5?
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No way are odds so bad even for a 4 goal deficit with over 6 min left.

When I was a bantam age player I watched a Midget triple A tournament in Vernon and the one squad came back and tied a 3 goal deficit with 1 min left (60 sec, 10 sec and 1 sec). I remember Calgary doing a 2 goal deficit comeback with a minute left in Iginlas early days in Calgary in the late nineties. Didn't Buffalo have a 7 goal first period in the regular season and a big comeback win against Pitts around that time; pretty sure NYR had a huge first period goal total too. Yes it's not likely but it's not impossible. And the key is using your momentum while jumping on the leader while they're asleep. Things can happen quick even in this sport. Then you use two lines mostly riding your first line for the final 2 minutes while employing set plays. Anything else is careless and taxing on your star players to the point of ineffectiveness due to fatigue.

I'm pretty sure I saw a game or two this playoffs with McDavid and Draisaitl being practically ridden for the final 3 minutes or more and it not working. Even superstars lose their ability to change a game after about a minute of play (normal shifts being anywhere from 35 to 45 sec).
 
Tofveve said:
No way are odds so bad even for a 4 goal deficit with over 6 min left.

When I was a bantam age player I watched a Midget triple A tournament in Vernon and the one squad came back and tied a 3 goal deficit with 1 min left (60 sec, 10 sec and 1 sec). I remember Calgary doing a 2 goal deficit comeback with a minute left in Iginlas early days in Calgary in the late nineties. Didn't Buffalo have a 7 goal first period in the regular season and a big comeback win against Pitts around that time; pretty sure NYR had a huge first period goal total too. Yes it's not likely but it's not impossible. And the key is using your momentum while jumping on the leader while they're asleep. Things can happen quick even in this sport. Then you use two lines mostly riding your first line for the final 2 minutes while employing set plays. Anything else is careless and taxing on your star players to the point of ineffectiveness due to fatigue.

I'm pretty sure I saw a game or two this playoffs with McDavid and Draisaitl being practically ridden for the final 3 minutes or more and it not working. Even superstars lose their ability to change a game after about a minute of play (normal shifts being anywhere from 35 to 45 sec).
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Maybe not 1 in a million but it's certainly not 1 in 100. I don't care about little league, how many 4.goal leads have there been in the nhl with 6 minutes left. Hundreds I bet and how many comebacks have we seen?

And yes riding McDavid and draisaitl for 3 minutea/ they lose effectiveness- but the idea is that you will ice 6 players to score within that 1st minute instead of riding them 3-4 minutes. Cuz if it takes you 3-4 minutes to score a goal, than you already lose. You need to cut it down to a 3 goal lead cuz if it's 4 goals with 5 minutes left, the odds get even more nonexistant.
 
Tofveve said:
Miracles happen with regular play and one team all of sudden going on a surge, getting some luck and then the team with the lead being flat. I've never seen a miracle by pulling a goalie with 6+ minutes left and the team with the lead being able to shoot at your empty net every chance they get the puck with icing being the only consequence.
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Carolina was down 3-0 to the Jets earlier this year, pulled the goalie with about 5 mins left and scored theee times with an Emory net to force OT. (Lost in OT on about the dumbest OT lien change I’ve ever seen)

So the miracles do happen.
 
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Based on what I’ve seen in most threads.

Gary Bettman made him pull the goalie to get Stone the hat trick ensuring the cup for Vegas


Am I doing this right?
 
WATTAGE4451 said:
How many 4 goal comebacks with under 6 minutes have you seen ever? It's not 1 in 100, it's 1 in several million. If cou vant maintain possession and score within 2 minutes, odds becomes 1 to several billions. The other team knows how much time is left. If you stay 5 on 5 and lose possession, instead of icing it, they start just passing it around if they hain possession and kill so much time you have no chance either.

A few 3 goal comebacks with empty net and 4 ?instead have happened including during the playoffs.

Odds are in billions anyways. If you can't maintain possession with 6 players, what makes you think they would have been able to with 5?
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Not sure where you are getting the sample sizes for these odds from. If a team has ever pulled off that 4 goal comeback, we aren't talking about several million. Hell, if we are just talking about the NHL, there haven't been close to a million games played in the history of the league.
 
KrisLetAngry said:
Someone did not watch the games.
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Yeah, I did. Bobrovsky stunk the joint up and was a shell of himself from the previous third rounds. He wasn't the only problem for Florida in the finals, but he was most definitely not a solution either. Reverted back to his extremely high-paid, but massively disappointing self. .828 SV% in the finals is just laughably bad.
 
WATTAGE4451 said:
Maybe not 1 in a million but it's certainly not 1 in 100. I don't care about little league, how many 4.goal leads have there been in the nhl with 6 minutes left. Hundreds I bet and how many comebacks have we seen?
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My high-level calculation suggests that, being down 4 goals with 6 minutes left, Florida had about a 1-in-7,000 chance of tying the game (without pulling the goalie). Not impossible, but highly improbable.

After pulling the goalie, the probability of forcing OT was much higher (but still very low), about 1 in 800. Strictly in terms of the odds, it was the right call. Forgetting the math, Maurice may have done it to "prove" to fans and/or the owners that he did everything he could. Still, 1 in 800 is highly unlikely.
 
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Osprey said:
There's also the possibility that Maurice didn't want to answer to the owner, players, media and/or fans about why he never pulled the goaltender. By doing so once and allowing one empty netter to really put the game out of reach, he could at least say that he tried to come back.
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Hockey Outsider said:
Forgetting the math, Maurice may have done it to "prove" to fans and/or the owners that he did everything he could. Still, 1 in 800 is highly unlikely.
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This interpretation strikes me as oddly uncharitable to Maurice.

Isn’t is more easily believable that, rather than a cynical and insincere demonstration that he was using all possible tactics to try and spark a comeback, he actually was using all possible tactics to try and spark a comeback?
 
Tofveve said:
They were down for 4, yes. But people need to consider that being down by 4 the team is a) very conscious that opponent is now pushing (when they pull their goalie, hence it wakes them up) and b) all the team in the lead has to do is ice the puck continually. It's not normal empty net play in the slightest. It's just non-stop shooting at an empty net with less than normal consequence.

Keep it 5 on 5 and keep doing what you're doing having scored 2 goals in the previous 4 or 5 minutes.

I'm a firm believer in 2.5 max down by two. Heck, okay, if you're down by 4 with 3 min left sure, whatever.

Normal down by 1 goal, no more than a minute and a half. 2 goals 2 min. That's it. Totally convinced of this.
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You’re a firm believer in playing to keep the score respectable, not to win…
 
Are we really going to pretend that Florida pulling the goalie when they did wasn't simply a classy move by Maurice who knew the game & series was over, they're IN Vegas, and Stone was a goal away from a hat trick?
 
Tofveve said:
No way are odds so bad even for a 4 goal deficit with over 6 min left.

When I was a bantam age player I watched a Midget triple A tournament in Vernon and the one squad came back and tied a 3 goal deficit with 1 min left (60 sec, 10 sec and 1 sec). I remember Calgary doing a 2 goal deficit comeback with a minute left in Iginlas early days in Calgary in the late nineties. Didn't Buffalo have a 7 goal first period in the regular season and a big comeback win against Pitts around that time; pretty sure NYR had a huge first period goal total too. Yes it's not likely but it's not impossible. And the key is using your momentum while jumping on the leader while they're asleep. Things can happen quick even in this sport. Then you use two lines mostly riding your first line for the final 2 minutes while employing set plays. Anything else is careless and taxing on your star players to the point of ineffectiveness due to fatigue.

I'm pretty sure I saw a game or two this playoffs with McDavid and Draisaitl being practically ridden for the final 3 minutes or more and it not working. Even superstars lose their ability to change a game after about a minute of play (normal shifts being anywhere from 35 to 45 sec).
Click to expand...

Toronto vs Columbus is the craziest comeback I've seen, which was 3 in 4 minutes.

4 in 6 minutes can definitely happen, but ya, probably not too likely.
 
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tarheelhockey said:
This interpretation strikes me as oddly uncharitable to Maurice.

Isn’t is more easily believable that, rather than a cynical and insincere demonstration that he was using all possible tactics to try and spark a comeback, he actually was using all possible tactics to try and spark a comeback?
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That's why I mentioned that possibility first. It seems oddly uncharitable to me to not note or quote that.
 
tarheelhockey said:
I’m just wondering where the second narrative would even come from. Wouldn’t have brought it up at all if two different people hadn’t said it.
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It comes from the fact that he pulled the goaltender when down by four goals and then put him back in after only one more. He gave up on the comeback rather quickly, suggesting that he may not have had much faith in it to begin with and might've attempted it partly because others would expect him to.
 
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Breakers said:
I remember when Roy did it

That dominated NHL talk for like 2 months when he pulled the goalie with 9 minutes left

Dinosaurs in the game almost lost their damn minds when they heard about it.
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I believe it was Mike Keenan who used to do this every so often
 
notbias said:
Toronto vs Columbus is the craziest comeback I've seen, which was 3 in 4 minutes.

4 in 6 minutes can definitely happen, but ya, probably not too likely.
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But toronto vs Columbus was with the goalie pulled for all 3
 
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