"Puck Luck"

[BobCole]

The "Deserve to Win O'Meter" is a website that simulates each game 1,000 times based on shots, chances, etc.

According to this data, the Pens expected record this season is 14-4-0, and their record in actuality is 9-9-0.

Of games the Pens "deserved" to win, they have won only 6 of 14. Last season, their expected record was 46-36; their actual record was 40-42.

I don't know what to do with this this formation, but that's it.

 

[Andy99]

well it happens too frequently to the Pens, and rarely in the opposite direction where we’re the ones who undeservedly win a game, that it can’t be “puck luck”…puck luck suggests a random occurrence…this is not random.,.this is a team trying to score goals in a way that’s not conducive to scoring for their personnel

 

[BobCole]

well it happens too frequently to the Pens, and rarely in the opposite direction where we’re the ones who undeservedly win a game, that it can’t be “puck luck”…puck luck suggests a random occurrence…this is not random.,.this is a team trying to score goals in a way that’s not conducive to scoring for their personnel

I agree

 

[Empoleon8771]

"The "Deserve to Win O'Meter" just evaluates games based on expected goals and ignores goal scoring talent. The Penguins just have really bad actual goal scoring talent, even with Crosby, Malkin and Guentzel.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The Penguins are proof that these analytics about "expected" goals have a long way to go.

 

[HuskerTornado]

There's puck luck, then there's puck suck.

You won't believe Rakell's "Deserve to Score-O-Meter" number.

Bylsma had a theory about goalie force fields to explain his team's scoring troubles.

 

[Gurglesons]

f*** Muck Sullivan

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

More like “Puck Suck” amirite??

 

[BusinessGoose]

xGF

 

[Honour Over Glory]

The "Deserve to Win O'Meter" is a website that simulates each game 1,000 times based on shots, chances, etc.

According to this data, the Pens expected record this season is 14-4-0, and their record in actuality is 9-9-0.

Of games the Pens "deserved" to win, they have won only 6 of 14. Last season, their expected record was 46-36; their actual record was 40-42.

I don't know what to do with this this formation, but that's it.

Nah, f*** that stat.

This team is being coached like shit.

 

[Daeni10]

The Penguins are proof that these analytics about "expected" goals have a long way to go.

Yes and no. I think in terms of actually measuring how many goals a specific team should have scored that night, it definitely has some way to go. However if you continue to score below your expected goals it certainly shows that you have some problems at finishing which is something you can take away from that. High xG just shows that you get many chances but are unable to convert on them.

My favorite football team has the same problem as in they get a very bad xG count and even worse finishing

 

[Icarium]

Turns out it's harder to score when your net front presence is next to zero. Who would have thought?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I just think there's way too much chaos in hockey for a "deserve to win" thing to matter.

Like, yeah, the team might've had four golden chances from the slot, but if that puck's coming off of DOC or Nieto's stick, well, it's like 1/8 of a scoring chance.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yes and no. I think in terms of actually measuring how many goals a specific team should have scored that night, it definitely has some way to go. However if you continue to score below your expected goals it certainly shows that you have some problems at finishing which is something you can take away from that. High xG just shows that you get many chances but are unable to convert on them.

My favorite football team has the same problem as in they get a very bad xG count and even worse finishing

Which football team is that? Man U?

 

[trader997]

How many post did we hit last night? And we scored a goal that got turned back... Last night was a game the Pens should have won but again we felt short. Luck is certainly not on our side for some games this year but net front presence and a good PP gets you in the playoffs these days which we don't have right now.

 

[Ulf5]

The Penguins are proof that these analytics about "expected" goals have a long way to go.

C'mon, no team produces more Tyler Kennedy shots per 60 than us.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

The "Deserve to Win O'Meter" is a website that simulates each game 1,000 times based on shots, chances, etc.

According to this data, the Pens expected record this season is 14-4-0, and their record in actuality is 9-9-0.

Of games the Pens "deserved" to win, they have won only 6 of 14. Last season, their expected record was 46-36; their actual record was 40-42.

I don't know what to do with this this formation, but that's it.

Two questions:
1. How did it do overall?
2. How predictive is it?
3. What is Phil Kessel up to? How is this for a bottom 6?
Z Eller Phil
DOC Acciari Hino

Phil on the PP?

 

[BusinessGoose]

Lol at phil kessel playing a bottom six role on a Sullivan

 

[BillyOcean]

Lot of puck cucks imo

 

[Turin]

The "Deserve to Win O'Meter" is a website that simulates each game 1,000 times based on shots, chances, etc.

According to this data, the Pens expected record this season is 14-4-0, and their record in actuality is 9-9-0.

Of games the Pens "deserved" to win, they have won only 6 of 14. Last season, their expected record was 46-36; their actual record was 40-42.

I don't know what to do with this this formation, but that's it.

Flawed meter, but the reality is with a powerplay in the top 10 the Pens are probably like 12-6 this year, yea.

 

[Peat]

Flawed meter, but the reality is with a powerplay in the top 10 the Pens are probably like 12-6 this year, yea.

'
Which is pretty much where the downfall lies.

This team's 5v5 scoring is fine. It's 6th, and within a couple of goals of expected. Yeah it'd be nice to add a little more goalscoring, but right now this team at 5v5 is a high scoring team that you'd expect to continue scoring high.

It has scored nearly 50% of expected on the power play.

If this team can make one trade, it should be acquiring the player that they think can fix the unit, and tbh they should consider hiring someone other than Reirden to run it.

 

[Turin]

'
Which is pretty much where the downfall lies.

This team's 5v5 scoring is fine. It's 6th, and within a couple of goals of expected. Yeah it'd be nice to add a little more goalscoring, but right now this team at 5v5 is a high scoring team that you'd expect to continue scoring high.

It has scored nearly 50% of expected on the power play.

If this team can make one trade, it should be acquiring the player that they think can fix the unit, and tbh they should consider hiring someone other than Reirden to run it.

Yup. Needs a fwd who can compliment Sid and Geno and it needs a new coach who has never worked with either of them and isn't afraid to tell them to get over their habits.

 

[canadianguy77]

We mostly attack from the side of the net. Other teams attack from the middle, because they have dynamic players who can cut in and beat a guy. They are not the same level of scoring chance regardless of what you've been led to believe from advanced analytics. The shots from the side of the net sre very low percentage. I never understood why they were ever lumped in with shots from the middle of the ice.

 

[eXile3]

Lol at phil kessel playing a bottom six role on a Sullivan

I feel so bad for Phil. Dude is so close to a 1,000 points and it looks like he won’t find a team. 1,000 points for an American born player is a big deal. I think there’s only like 10 of them.

 

[HandshakeLine]

'
Which is pretty much where the downfall lies.

This team's 5v5 scoring is fine. It's 6th, and within a couple of goals of expected. Yeah it'd be nice to add a little more goalscoring, but right now this team at 5v5 is a high scoring team that you'd expect to continue scoring high.

It has scored nearly 50% of expected on the power play.

If this team can make one trade, it should be acquiring the player that they think can fix the unit, and tbh they should consider hiring someone other than Reirden to run it.

We all thought EK65, the best offensive blueliner of his generation was that player. Nothing is going to change while Reirden is here.