Prospect Info: Prospect Rating #6 (2024 Version) - NOTICE: please change your vote to Ilyin or Ponomaryov

[Andy99]

@Solution @Andy99 @steelcityassault @deakka @Tom Hanks @Kasperi kapanen @Coastal Kev

Please consider changing your vote to one of Ilyin or Ponomaryov in order to avoid a runoff poll

Unhappily I did again…Ilyin is an unknown but seems to have more upside than what I’m hearing about Pono, so voted for him…I still think Broz will be better than those 2…just remember I was the only guy voting Puusty high over the last several years against the majority and he’s the only one who turned out to have a decent chance at a NHL career lol…

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

CDC's scurvy rhetoric has swayed me. Sorry. CLC. I've no idea why I default to calling you the Center for Disease Control.



Tangent, but I'm still tempted to put Poulin high. His numbers don't really warrant it but I feel like his weird whacky route means there's still some meat on the bone in terms of exposure to pro coaching and bigger guys putting it together a year or so after most people wrote them off as AHL fodder is not uncommon.

Yeah I wouldn’t have him above any of the guys in post you replied to bc he’s;

1) not that big
2) not that fast
3) older/waiver status

his development has just gone so poorly it’s hard for me to manufacture faith. I think it’s fair to be tempted by him, his season wasn’t that different from Pono’s statistically and they’re only a year apart.

I just don’t see a path for him to have success here with the waiver issue and glut of F depth. Can’t rank him high as a result of that and the above.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

he’s the only one who turned out to have a decent chance at a NHL career

DOC??

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah I wouldn’t have him above any of the guys in post you replied to bc he’s;

1) not that big
2) not that fast
3) older/waiver status

his development has just gone so poorly it’s hard for me to manufacture faith. I think it’s fair to be tempted by him, his season wasn’t that different from Pono’s statistically and they’re only a year apart.

I just don’t see a path for him to have success here with the waiver issue and glut of F depth. Can’t rank him high as a result of that and the above.

Poulin is not that big?

CDC's scurvy rhetoric has swayed me. Sorry. CLC. I've no idea why I default to calling you the Center for Disease Control.



Tangent, but I'm still tempted to put Poulin high. His numbers don't really warrant it but I feel like his weird whacky route means there's still some meat on the bone in terms of exposure to pro coaching and bigger guys putting it together a year or so after most people wrote them off as AHL fodder is not uncommon.

Poulin’s biggest issue is Mike Sullivan playing him over Lizotte and Acciari if we don’t make any additional moves.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Poulin is not that big?

not really. 6’1 208

 

[KrisLetAngry]

57.8% for Pono. Looks like Ilyin is most likely primed for 7.

Way better prospect rankings then last year. Great Job Dubas.

 

[eXile3]

not really. 6’1 208

I believe the league average is around 6’1 and 200 lbs? That’s from 2021. Can’t find more recent data.

That has always been my concern with Poulin. At the draft they raved about his size, I think he was 180ish when drafted?

Problem being once he got to the pro level he wasn’t going to have that advantage.

 

[Solution]

@Solution @Andy99 @steelcityassault @deakka @Tom Hanks @Kasperi kapanen @Coastal Kev

Please consider changing your vote to one of Ilyin or Ponomaryov in order to avoid a runoff poll

Done.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I believe the league average is around 6’1 and 200 lbs? That’s from 2021. Can’t find more recent data.

That has always been my concern with Poulin. At the draft they raved about his size, I think he was 180ish when drafted?

Problem being once he got to the pro level he wasn’t going to have that advantage.

He’s lost a TON of games to injury, COVID, mental health. Like over 100 by my rough count

Just sucks. Hope he can figure it out.

 

[Peat]

I believe the league average is around 6’1 and 200 lbs? That’s from 2021. Can’t find more recent data.

That has always been my concern with Poulin. At the draft they raved about his size, I think he was 180ish when drafted?

Problem being once he got to the pro level he wasn’t going to have that advantage.

215. He lost weight.

 

[eXile3]

He’s lost a TON of games to injury, COVID, mental health. Like over 100 by my rough count

Just sucks. Hope he can figure it out.

Yeah it sucks when a prospects career gets derailed by things they can’t control.

It would have been nice to see him given an actual chance at the NHL level but by the looks of our signings he’s either going on waivers or the press box.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

I’m surprised a lot of people are voting Ponomaryov if they believe his upside is 3C. I feel like Howe and Brunicke project to more upside.

 

[Malkinstheman]

I’m surprised a lot of people are voting Ponomaryov if they believe his upside is 3C. I feel like Howe and Brunicke project to more upside.

Pono has 4 years of development over them and has a high likelihood of being an NHL player. The recent draftees are total unknowns. Their upside likely isn't high enough for me to rank them over someone with a floor of a bottom-6 player.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I’m surprised a lot of people are voting Ponomaryov if they believe his upside is 3C. I feel like Howe and Brunicke project to more upside.

People really want that trade to be good.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Whether or not people realize it they're absolutely doing some weighted rating in their heads of upside and readiness.

 

[Ulf5]

Whether or not people realize it they're absolutely doing some weighted rating in their heads of upside and readiness.

Prospect rankings to me boils down to who I think will have the best career, plain and simple.
So it's Murashov, Murashov, Murashov, Yager, Blomqvist, Pickering, Ilyin.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I’m surprised a lot of people are voting Ponomaryov if they believe his upside is 3C. I feel like Howe and Brunicke project to more upside.

@Randy Butternubs

 

[Freeptop]

Whether or not people realize it they're absolutely doing some weighted rating in their heads of upside and readiness.

One thing I liked way back when from the original Hockey's Future website was how they had prospects rated by both upside and likelihood of reaching that upside.
So, for example, a forward might get a ranking of 7.0C, which would mean they had a ceiling of being a third-line forward in the NHL, but they weren't likely to achieve that potential (If I recall correctly, 10 was generational talent, 9 was elite/all-star level, 8 was top six, etc, while A meant that they were basically guaranteed to hit their ceiling, B meant they would likely fall by 1, C by 2, etc).

I mean, those ratings were often off by quite a bit, but I did like the idea of the system, at least

 

[Tom Hanks]

Prospect rankings to me boils down to who I think will have the best career, plain and simple.
So it's Murashov, Murashov, Murashov, Yager, Blomqvist, Pickering, Ilyin.

 

[Sideline]

Whether or not people realize it they're absolutely doing some weighted rating in their heads of upside and readiness.

Exactly. Maybe Pono tops out as a Nick Bonino type 3C. That's a very valuable player. Based on his years of playing against men he's safe bet to be at least a capable 4th liner.

Ilyin has had one really impressive year. If he keeps up the development track from that one year he's a first line winger. But it's only one year so the floor with him is "Hey remember that Russian kid the Penguins drafted that had a good year when he was 19? He's the assistant coach for the 2046 Russian Olympic women's hockey team."

 

[Ugene Magic]

Prospect rankings to me boils down to who I think will have the best career, plain and simple.
So it's Murashov, Murashov, Murashov, Yager, Blomqvist, Pickering, Ilyin.

And goalies that depend on a team to defense are not really going to do well here. So ranking goalies in the top 5/6 here is a total waste of time. They will be abused and people will drag them in the mud here.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

Pono has 4 years of development over them and has a high likelihood of being an NHL player. The recent draftees are total unknowns. Their upside likely isn't high enough for me to rank them over someone with a floor of a bottom-6 player.

I disagree. Brunicke and Howe had been acknowledged as potential first round picks by multiple scouts. They both have potential top 6/top4 upside. The Penguins’ draft this year was well-rated in terms of the quantity and placement of their picks because of this. I’ll take that over even a probable 3rd line forward every day of the week.

 

[Ugene Magic]

People really want that trade to be good.

By just pure volume just getting one NHLer out of the deal (Which they already did in Bunting) they have a chance for that trade to be more than good if any of Pono, Koivunen and Brunicki make an NHL impact.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

By just pure volume just getting one NHLer out of the deal (Which they already did in Bunting) they have a chance for that trade to be more than good if any of Pono, Koivunen and Brunicki make an NHL impact.

Yeah like I said people really want that trade to be good. You aren't going to have a more valuable piece to move any time soon so I suppose I can understand why people are really pumping it hard.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I disagree. Brunicke and Howe had been acknowledged as potential first round picks by multiple scouts. They both have potential top 6/top4 upside. The Penguins’ draft this year was well-rated in terms of the quantity and placement of their picks because of this. I’ll take that over even a probable 3rd line forward every day of the week.

Pono has the chance to reach his potential first and that has a weighted measurement in readiness.

Yeah like I said people really want that trade to be good. You aren't going to have a more valuable piece to move any time soon so I suppose I can understand why people are really pumping it hard.

The Pens gave up the best player in the deal so they got the best they could in the circumstances. Had they known that was the route they were going to go they should have shipped him out with a year of term left ala Staal and got that 1st and top prospects. That was the only way they were going to do better than a bunch of 2nds bunched together.