Prospect Info: Prospect Potential Probabilities

[Celtic Note]

I have been thinking about this for a while and wondering how our fan base would rate the percentage liklihood of a player reaching their apex, their most likely of potentials and their floor.

I am hoping we can do our most recently rated top 10 prospects and then compile everyone’s percentages to get means and medians for each of the players’ three tiers. After that I was hoping we could discuss how we feel about our pool.

Here are our top 10 to rank:

1. Dalibor Dvorsky
2. Jimmy Snuggerud
3. Theo Lindstein
4. Adam Jiricek
5. Zack Bolduc
6. Otto Stenberg
7. Juraj Pekarcik
8. Matt Kessel
9. Zach Dean
10. Vadim Zherenko

So here is an example:

Dvorsky
Ceiling: 1C - 25%
Most Likely: 2C - 55%
Floor: 3C - 20%


For the tiers, let’s keep things consistent and to reduce complication.

For forwards:
Elite
1st Line
2nd Line
3rd Line
4th Line
Tweener
AHL or lower

For D:
Elite
1st Pair
2nd Pair
3rd Pair
Tweener
AHL or lower


For Goalie:
Elite
Starter
Backup
Tweener
AHL or lower

Click to read more...

 

[BlueMed]

I'm a huge optimist, but after attending the prospect camp, I am still a little skeptical of Snuggerud. His skating is a bit sluggish although he is reportedly working on it. He's the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in my eyes. Will he be a Mike Hoffman or a Brock Boeser? I actually think Bolduc is a safer bet given his skating ability.

Also, Jake Neighbours isn't really a prospect anymore, but there are valid questions about his future production level. During his time in juniors, he produced roughly an equal number of goals and assists, and I would expect him to do the same once he matures a little more, but 11 assists last season leaves a lot more to be desired. If he can set up his linemates as well as he can finish, then I'd consider him a bonafide core player rather than a power play bonus. Long term, will he be a middle 6 winger like Brenden Morrow or a top 6 winger like Dustin Brown?

I think it's really difficult to provide specific probabilities on our prospects without significant NHL experience. Many scouts and writers who attempt to forecast these things are wildly off. I remember Robert Thomas being projected as a 3rd line center with his comparable veteran as Bo Horvat. Thankfully, he is starting to look a lot more like Nicklas Backstrom (20-25ish goals with 55-60ish assists per season).

 

[BluesReport25]

I'll give this a go. I think it's always good to be optimistic about prospects until they prove you wrong. For a lot of players it's simply about getting the chance to prove themselves that determines if they make it and what role they play in. For example Barbs here was put into a role of a 4th liner for so long and yet I believed he could've been so much more. Then he goes on to be a first line winger on a cup team. So it really all comes down to the opportunity a team is willing to give their prospect.
That being said let's get into the ranking...

Dalibor Dvorsky
Ceiling: 1C - 20%
Most Likely: 2C - 55%
Floor: 3C/W - 25%
Notes: It's going to be very hard for Dvorsky to be a 1C here with Thomas ahead of him. I also think he needs to work on his pace and energy to hit his most likely outcome. Good news is the 2C role is his for the taking (even this year if he dominates at camp)

Jimmy Snuggerud
Ceiling: 1RW - 35%
Most Likely: 2RW - 45%
Floor: 3RW/PP specialist - 20%
Notes: Snuggerud really needs to play with a play driver to be at his best. Good thing the Blues have Thomas right? I think Snuggerud is a better fit with Thomas than Kyrou is given his shooting ability and I could easily see a future top line of Neighbours-Thomas-Snuggerud

Theo Lindstein
Ceiling: 1st Pair - 20%
Most Likely: 2nd Pair - 65%
Floor: 3rd Pair - 15%
Notes: I see Lindstein as a Gunnarsson like top pair dman if that's what he becomes. Good at everything but never really great. I think he is almost a lock to be at least a 2nd pair dman.

Adam Jiricek
Ceiling: 1st Pair - 35%
Most Likely: 2nd Pair - 35%
Floor: 3rd Pair - 30%
Notes: Like I said at the top, for a prospect to really make it all that matters is opportunity. Well the Blues have 0 noteworthy RHD prospects and by the time Jiricek is ready for the NHL (likely 3 years), the Blues will need a replacement for Faulk so a 2nd pair spot will be open. After that Parayko will need to be replaced. Jiricek just needs to add weight and stay healthy. Lots of boom or bust potential so it is hard to predict.

Zach Bolduc
Ceiling: 1LW - 20%
Most Likely: 2LW - 65%
Floor: 3LW - 15%
Notes: Bolduc looked amazing to me at the end of last season. Easily was the best defensive forward on the team at times (that doesn't get talked about enough) and his shot is lethal. I think he's a lock in the top 6 long term for the Blues.

Otto Stenberg
Ceiling: 2C/W - 35%
Most Likely: 3C/W - 65%
Notes: I just think Stenberg is a lock for the middle 6 in the future. Where he plays, who knows, but he's going to be a good player for a long time.

Juraj Pekarcik
Ceiling: 1W - 5%
Most Likely: 3W - 40%
Floor: Tweener - 55%
Notes: Pekarcik has a ridiculous amount of skill but after watching him for the past year I've come to realize that his brain can't keep up with his speed. His puck control is really bad and he skates with his head down a ton. He needs to fix those 2 things to even be an NHLer but if he fixes both of those he has the slightest chance of being a star. He is still very young so he has a lot of time. I would've liked to have seen him take the college route but the Blues had other plans.

Matt Kessel
Ceiling: 2nd Pair - 35%
Most Likely: 3rd Pair - 65%
Notes: I don't consider Kessel a prospect but I'll include him on here. I think he's at least a 3rd pair D in the NHL and has the potential to be a 2nd pair D if the Blues let him. He's got some untapped offense if the Blues would let him go but you can tell he's so worried about making a mistake he won't even try to do any offense.

Zach Dean
Ceiling: 2C - 5%
Most Likely: 4C - 80%
Floor: Tweener - 15%
Notes: Interesting to rank because I think Dean has a high likelihood of being a bottom 6 center and even a 3C but he needs to get more physical otherwise he will end up as the next Alexandrov.

Vadim Zherenko
Ceiling: Starter - 5%
Most Likely: Tweener - 75%
Floor: AHL- 20%
Notes: Goalies are impossible to predict. Looks like Ellis might have passed Zherenko in the Blues goalie depth chart but only time will tell.

 

[Celtic Note]

I'm a huge optimist, but after attending the prospect camp, I am still a little skeptical of Snuggerud. His skating is a bit sluggish although he is reportedly working on it. He's the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in my eyes. Will he be a Mike Hoffman or a Brock Boeser? I actually think Bolduc is a safer bet given his skating ability.

Also, Jake Neighbours isn't really a prospect anymore, but there are valid questions about his future production level. During his time in juniors, he produced roughly an equal number of goals and assists, and I would expect him to do the same once he matures a little more, but 11 assists last season leaves a lot more to be desired. If he can set up his linemates as well as he can finish, then I'd consider him a bonafide core player rather than a power play bonus. Long term, will he be a middle 6 winger like Brenden Morrow or a top 6 winger like Dustin Brown?

I think it's really difficult to provide specific probabilities on our prospects without significant NHL experience. Many scouts and writers who attempt to forecast these things are wildly off. I remember Robert Thomas being projected as a 3rd line center with his comparable veteran as Bo Horvat. Thankfully, he is starting to look a lot more like Nicklas Backstrom (20-25ish goals with 55-60ish assists per season).

On the probabilities front, this is just a gut check on where we feel the prospects stand now. I know mine will change throughout the season and over the course of their years as prospects. It will get more accurate the further away from their draft year. I don’t think we need to write a percentage cast in stone. It’s a point in time analysis.

I think this analysis is different from our prospect rankings where we were comparing prospects to one another. With this exercise, it’s more about the players and where we feel they may land in their careers.

So for Snuggy, based on what you wrote, I might assume (just a SWAG interpretation, not trying to put words in your mouth) you would have him as the following:
Ceiling: 1W - 5-10%
Likely: 2W - 40-50%
Floor: 3W - 40-50%

Agreed on Neighbours. But I think it’s easier to get assists in juniors without decent hockey sense for the passing part of the game because of the competition level. That’s one area that I have questioned for Jake. It’s less of a I don’t think he has hockey sense and more of a will it develop enough to be a plus in the NHL. I think he made a small bit of progress there at the end of the season and some of it just didn’t convert. But, we/I still need to see more there.