Pronman: Ranking U23 NHL players and prospects

[Masked]

He just thinks that at the height of their NHL careers, the prospects will turn out better than the more established guys. It's not that crazy in my opinion. Plus it's fun offseason content.

It's beyond crazy that he could believe there's a chance Yakemchuk could turn out better than Sanderson. Maybe you're entertained by idiocy but there's so much of it in the world that I'm not.

 

[newfy]

The Lucas Raymond ranking might be Pronman's all-time worst take.

Lol this one is definitely up there for sure. Thats so bad

He just thinks that at the height of their NHL careers, the prospects will turn out better than the more established guys. It's not that crazy in my opinion. Plus it's fun offseason content.

I think everyone knows that. The problem is when a guy like Raymond is picked 4th overall, and at 21 has a 30 something goal, 70 something point season, thinking a bunch of these guys will be better is really, really dumb.

When the fun, offseason content is that stupid, dont be surprised if it gets ripped apart. Raymond stands out as maybe the worst ranking in this list, but theres plenty of other obvious ones as well

 

[2014nyr]

It's fair to argue this point but it's totally insane that Benson is at #62. As an 18 year old he was brought to camp as a way to give him experience/a taste of playing at this level so he would know what he needed to work on when he went back to the WHL. Instead he was so good the team was forced to have him on the Opening Day roster but with the intent for it to be a 9 game cup of coffee before being sent back. Then he played so well that he forced the team to keep him on the roster and he played in almost every game while being one of our better forwards (if more guys played like him last season we make the playoffs). Pronman's size bias is clearly obvious here.

i mean....no matter who does it on what platform...any attempt at ranking projected future value is simply an opinion of one person. everyone is entitled to their own, and nothing about either makes any difference at the end of the day...what's insane is taking offense to someone else's opinion.

personally, i like benson a lot. he's just the kind of player you want to have in your lineup...he's got an engine, great instincts, and high iq/effort. i would say though that i think he's got a fairly wide range of production potential...like i could see him becoming an annual 85+ pt offensive sparkplug, and i could see him topping out at a 40-60 pt middle 6 weapon. if you're of the opinion the latter is more likely, that ranking is in the right neighborhood. it's perfectly reasonable based on his body of work to date and his skillset as a player to think either play out. no opinion makes any bit of difference though. the only opinion i have on him is regardless of production ceiling or where he's ranked on any list, he's a player every single team would want in their lineup.

 

[Pavels Dog]

He just thinks that at the height of their NHL careers, the prospects will turn out better than the more established guys. It's not that crazy in my opinion. Plus it's fun offseason content.

You can use that justification but it still doesn't explain a lot of the weird rankings.

Yeah, I'm a Wings fans so I'll hyperfocus on that; but it makes no sense that Lucas Raymond is ranked lower this year than he was a year ago.
Even accounting for new additions to the list, he was jumped by Lafreniere, Wright, Byfield and Jarvis. Literally every similar player who took a step in their development jumped up the list - Raymond is the only one who fell; and he had the best season and biggest step forward!

I typically agree it's "fun offseason content", but the lack of internal logic or consistency in rankings is part of why I unsubscribed a while back. Drastic changes in rankings between the draft and August, even though zero hockey was played, for example.

 

[JohnLennon]

You can use that justification but it still doesn't explain a lot of the weird rankings.

Yeah, I'm a Wings fans so I'll hyperfocus on that; but it makes no sense that Lucas Raymond is ranked lower this year than he was a year ago.
Even accounting for new additions to the list, he was jumped by Lafreniere, Wright, Byfield and Jarvis. Literally every similar player who took a step in their development jumped up the list - Raymond is the only one who fell; and he had the best season and biggest step forward!

I typically agree it's "fun offseason content", but the lack of internal logic or consistency in rankings is part of why I unsubscribed a while back. Drastic changes in rankings between the draft and August, even though zero hockey was played, for example.

You're not wrong for disagreeing with a lot of these, but he also does cover his logic behind a lot of these rankings on the podcast. Give it a listen! He does not sound completely lost or ignorant when he justifies some of these placements.

Of course I still disagree with many as well, but we'll see how accurate it becomes. I think that's why he added tiers instead of leaving it as just one long list.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Well... At least it's not Scott Wheeler predictably overrating every offense-only player while undervaluing anybody who can play defense because he only knows how to look at stats.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

does anyone actually take Pronman seriously?

The athletic really needs to freshen up their hockey writers.

They should promote Ian Mendes, (or Bultman). They are actually good and know their hockey.

Does anyone ACTUALLY take any rankings seriously from anyone?? Sure they are fun to look at but it’s all just a crap shoot and people’s opinions.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Does anyone ACTUALLY take any rankings seriously from anyone?? Sure they are fun to look at but it’s all just a crap shoot and people’s opinions.

I mean, The Athletic has taken an ugly turn toward crap writing for about a year or two now.

Pronman doesn't bother me just because he at least seems to write based on actually watching hockey rather than stat watching or analytics bullshit. He has some batshit insane opinions but that's OK. Same as Button. He's way out there, but it's a different opinion that doesn't appear to be solely based on stat watching.

Like, these are guys that seem to watch hockey and formulate an opinion, even if it's one I disagree with.

It's the Scott Wheelers and Dom Lusczcynysyznysyznsyzns of the world that make me want to cancel my Athletic subscription. The site treats Dom's dumbass model like it's gospel.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

He attempted to rank every U23 NHL associated player and prospect pool in the league...no doubt it's not completely perfect. But at the same time...it's Pronman's own opinion, he's not trying to please anyone.


Maybe he just doesn't like Raymond? Lol

 

[Pavels Dog]

Of course I still disagree with many as well, but we'll see how accurate it becomes. I think that's why he added tiers instead of leaving it as just one long list.

I mean his lists haven't aged great generally. I appreciate the difficulty and wouldn't expect perfection, but there are some major fumbles especially when it comes to players who have already done it at the NHL which should be the easiest guys to rank somewhat accurately. Brock Faber is one such example on this list.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I mean his lists haven't aged great generally. I appreciate the difficulty and wouldn't expect perfection, but there are some major fumbles especially when it comes to players who have already done it at the NHL which should be the easiest guys to rank somewhat accurately. Brock Faber is one such example on this list.

If you listen to the podcast, he actually discusses the Faber ranking. Basically says he doesn't expect him to always have the opportunity he did last season when a guy like Buium comes in.

And the reason he ranks some recent drafted players over guys already in the NHL is that they have more room to grow/could have higher potential compared to guys in the league.

That's literally all from him on the podcast, not me FYI.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I don’t think Montreal fans will be happy with Reinbacher and Hutson ranks ( 69 and 87 ) . I like that his list is different than others but there are some head scratchers.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I don’t think Montreal fans will be happy with Reinbacher and Hutson ranks ( 69 and 87 ) . I like that his list is different than others but there are some head scratchers.

Its one guys opinion, no one should care that much where he ranks guys. No one can watch enough prospect and understand specific situations of prospects to make a list that wont have WTF takes with hindsight.

From a Habs fan perspective and only focusing on where he ranks Habs prospects relative to other Habs prospects, the fact that he has Justin Barron ranked so highly at 99 (and doesn't have Joshua Roy anywhere) is more of a WTF than him being low on Reinbacher and Hutson. And I'm among the biggest Barron fans on these boards.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Its one guys opinion, no one should care that much where he ranks guys. No one can watch enough prospect and understand specific situations of prospects to make a list that wont have WTF takes with hindsight.

From a Habs fan perspective and only focusing on where he ranks Habs prospects relative to other Habs prospects, the fact that he has Justin Barron ranked so highly at 99 (and doesn't have Joshua Roy anywhere) is more of a WTF than him being low on Reinbacher and Hutson. And I'm among the biggest Barron fans on these boards.

Ghule also ranked ahead of both ( 61 ) which was semi surprising to me ( though he does profile well as an all situations guy ) . Do Montreal fans agree that he’s your best d prospect / young D ? I know they like him but the shiny new toys seem to gather more praise . He has his limitations knowledge wise but certainly has more cred then your average HF poster .

 

[Captain Mountain]

I mean, The Athletic has taken an ugly turn toward crap writing for about a year or two now.

Pronman doesn't bother me just because he at least seems to write based on actually watching hockey rather than stat watching or analytics bullshit. He has some batshit insane opinions but that's OK. Same as Button. He's way out there, but it's a different opinion that doesn't appear to be solely based on stat watching.

Like, these are guys that seem to watch hockey and formulate an opinion, even if it's one I disagree with.

It's the Scott Wheelers and Dom Lusczcynysyznysyznsyzns of the world that make me want to cancel my Athletic subscription. The site treats Dom's dumbass model like it's gospel.

Wheeler's rankings are based on watching players too, I don't know why people say otherwise. Wheeler and Luszczyszyn will at least write hindsight/updating articles where they point out where they mess up, and Luszczyszyn frankly takes his model less seriously than his critics (even if other writers are over-reliant on it).

Pronman has prospects he likes and those he doesn't and is really slow to correct those biases, even when it becomes clear at the NHL level that he's wrong.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Wheeler's rankings are based on watching players too, I don't know why people say otherwise. Wheeler and Luszczyszyn will at least write hindsight/updating articles where they point out where they mess up, and Luszczyszyn frankly takes his model less seriously than his critics (even if other writers are over-reliant on it).

Pronman has prospects he likes and those he doesn't and is really slow to correct those biases, even when it becomes clear at the NHL level that he's wrong.

Wheeler is predictably heavily in favor of the offense-first types and has little to no regard for defense, which makes it highly suspicious that he's a stat-watcher.

For example, before he put out Detroit's ranking I had predicted he'd put ASP ahead of Danielson and Kasper. No surprise, he did.

He has a lengthy history of this.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Wheeler is predictably heavily in favor of the offense-first types and has little to no regard for defense, which makes it highly suspicious that he's a stat-watcher.

For example, before he put out Detroit's ranking I had predicted he'd put ASP ahead of Danielson and Kasper. No surprise, he did.

He has a lengthy history of this.

How dare he emphasize skill.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

How dare he emphasize skill.

That's one way to interpret giving preference to the players who's talent can be measured on the score sheet lmao.

Today I learned defensive ability isn't a skill.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

That's one way to interpret giving preference to the players who's talent can be measured on the score sheet lmao.

Today I learned defensive ability isn't a skill.

How dare he emphasize offensive skill . Better ? It was fairly obvious what I meant . Why you being mean Casper ?

 

[Captain Mountain]

Ghule also ranked ahead of both ( 61 ) which was semi surprising to me ( though he does profile well as an all situations guy ) . Do Montreal fans agree that he’s your best d prospect / young D ? I know they like him but the shiny new toys seem to gather more praise . He has his limitations knowledge wise but certainly has more cred then your average HF poster .

I guess it depends on who you ask or what you're looking at. IDC if he's ranked higher, but if we're projecting then it doesn't make sense that he's a tier higher than Hutson or Reinbacher.

Guhle's probably got a lower floor than either Hutson or Reinbacher, but he's in the NHL and has always had a higher ceiling than either with his defensive acumen complete game. Hutson is exciting because he's got incredible offensive skills and playmaking, but its not like its unreasonable to have doubts at his size and his improving but not ideal skating. He wasn't wrong to be lower than most on Adam Fox and Erik Brannstrom at similar points in their prospect journey, but he was clearly very wrong on one of those counts. Reinbacher had a bad D+1 season too, even if a lot of it was out of his control and he looked much better when he was in the AHL.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

How dare he emphasize offensive skill . Better ? It was fairly obvious what I meant . Why you being mean Casper ?

When you consistently favor offense over completeness or translating to the NHL you can't really be pissed when people think you're stat watching...

When you rank Hutson and ASP over Edvinsson and Reinbacher respectively, you deserve to eat shit for it.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

When you consistently favor offense over completeness you can't really be pissed when people think you're stat watching...

Do you have your own list that we can glean ?

 

[Captain Mountain]

Wheeler is predictably heavily in favor of the offense-first types and has little to no regard for defense, which makes it highly suspicious that he's a stat-watcher.

For example, before he put out Detroit's ranking I had predicted he'd put ASP ahead of Danielson and Kasper. No surprise, he did.

He has a lengthy history of this.

Pronman will stat watch and overrate offense-first type guys too, but I'd argue Pronman is a different type of stat-watcher, because he tends to undervalue hard to quantify skills (like hockey sense or vision) and overrate more quantifiable skills like hitting or skating speed.

The other thing is that even in recent history, offense-first guys overperform prospects more known for their defence.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Wouldn’t Hutson being an offense first guy be ranked very highly under these parameters then ? I know he’s not a great skater at that size but if it’s truly all stat watching shouldn’t he be a few tiers up ?

Which stats are we talking about? Pronman cares a lot about skating speed (which is also a stat, just not a counting stat) and factors that in more than other prospect writers.

Pronman, Wheeler, Button or literally any prospect writer are also not actually basing their rankings off a model, its an opinion. They each have biases, both in what they look for and individual prospects, but there are general preferences you can see if you compare their lists. Wheeler likes "smart" players who score a lot more than most, Pronman likes players with elite skating, "puck skills" and "compete", Button likes guys who have "compete" and engage physically. If you want a prospect ranking model (and I don't), then you can use one of those NHLe models.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Not making a new thread about it because it's somewhat adjacent to his U23 ranking, but Pronman lists the rebuilding teams by which ones are most likely to become contenders in the future. He includes every team that missed the playoffs last season in this list.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5707840/2024/09/10/nhl-rebuild-teams-ranking/

Spoiler: rankings

1. Blackhawks
2. Senators
3. Ducks
4. Sharks
5. Devils
6. Utah
7. Sabres
8. Kraken
9. Habs
10. Wild
11. Jackets
12. Wings
13. Flyers
14. Blues
15. Flames
16. Penguins