Primary vs Secondary Assists- 2018-19 season

[MartinS82]

^^^Nobody who comprehends the article could possibly write this.

If what you are typing were true, then every team would get more secondary assists at home than away. That simply isn't the case.



Again, nobody who comprehends the article could possibly come to this conclusion.

The conclusion very clearly isn't based on a video of a play where the NHL awarded secondary Sid a secondary assist despite him irrefutably not deserving it (although that does provide clear evidence that it happens).

The conclusion is based on 568 players over 11 seasons who played an average of roughly 500 games a piece. That's approximately 284,000 individual player stat games worth of data. I'd say that's a rather decent sample size.

The conclusion from the data is that secondary Sid unambiguously benefits disproportionately from secondary assists at home.

The chart that is posted actually shows that Stamkos and Subban score a dispraportionate amount of their secondary assists at home. Not Crosby. Crosby's split is about 150/115. Stamkos is 75/37. Crosby is less then 3/2 while Stamkos is 2/1. If your conclusion is Crosby scores a dispraportionate amount of secondary assists at home, your conclusion is wrong.

It's actually a pretty lame chart, as the distribution looks about right, considering also that home teams flat out score more goals then road teams, why would they have the same "expected" number of assists?

"Hockey Players Score More Points At Home!" Must be a conspiracy to prop up Crosby.

 

[MartinS82]

^^^Nobody who comprehends the article could possibly write this.

If what you are typing were true, then every team would get more secondary assists at home than away. That simply isn't the case.



Again, nobody who comprehends the article could possibly come to this conclusion.

The conclusion very clearly isn't based on a video of a play where the NHL awarded secondary Sid a secondary assist despite him irrefutably not deserving it (although that does provide clear evidence that it happens).

The conclusion is based on 568 players over 11 seasons who played an average of roughly 500 games a piece. That's approximately 284,000 individual player stat games worth of data. I'd say that's a rather decent sample size.

The conclusion from the data is that secondary Sid unambiguously benefits disproportionately from secondary assists at home.

Also your article states "The further a player is above it, the more disproportionate his tendency to rack up secondary assists at home" with regards to the "Expected" line. The stupid writer doesn't even know how to read his own graph. LOL.

If you are talking "proportional" like the author is, then you use ratios, not whole numbers. So someone up and to the right (Crosby) being off by a unit of measure is much less PROPORTIONALLY then someone down and to the left being the same distance away from the expected line.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The chart that is posted actually shows that Stamkos and Subban score a dispraportionate amount of their secondary assists at home. Not Crosby. Crosby's split is about 150/115. Stamkos is 75/37. Crosby is less then 3/2 while Stamkos is 2/1. If your conclusion is Crosby scores a dispraportionate amount of secondary assists at home, your conclusion is wrong.

It's actually a pretty lame chart, as the distribution looks about right, considering also that home teams flat out score more goals then road teams, why would they have the same "expected" number of assists?

"Hockey Players Score More Points At Home!" Must be a conspiracy to prop up Crosby.

A 10% variance is expected based on home scoring being higher than away. You would know this had you read the article.

Crosby's variance is 30%. This is over a period of ~ 700 games.

My conclusion is exactly correct.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Also your article states "The further a player is above it, the more disproportionate his tendency to rack up secondary assists at home" with regards to the "Expected" line. The stupid writer doesn't even know how to read his own graph. LOL.

If you are talking "proportional" like the author is, then you use ratios, not whole numbers. So someone up and to the right (Crosby) being off by a unit of measure is much less PROPORTIONALLY then someone down and to the left being the same distance away from the expected line.

Dude. Read up on 538. They are rather good at statistics.

And yeah, the variances get smaller and the anomalies reduce as the sample sizes increase. Shocker.

 

[peoplesman]

Secondary assist on powerplay is basically a participation point. 99% of them are completely replaceable plays by most good NHL players.

 

[MartinS82]

A 10% variance is expected based on home scoring being higher than away. You would know this had you read the article.

Crosby's variance is 30%. This is over a period of ~ 700 games.

My conclusion is exactly correct.

Do you agree with this statement:

"The further a player is above it (expected line), the more disproportionate his tendency to rack up secondary assists at home". Its straight from the article that I read.

 

[pi314]

A 10% variance is expected based on home scoring being higher than away. You would know this had you read the article.

Crosby's variance is 30%. This is over a period of ~ 700 games.

My conclusion is exactly correct.

So you are really going to hang your hat on, “The scorekeepers cheat”?

I’ll get the tin foil hats.

 

[Vujtek]

Secondary Sid is secondary Sid because he has benefitted more from secondary assists than any other player in the history of the game. While not getting the most secondary assists, Sidney Crosby is the only player in the history of the game where people will claim he is the best player of his generation by virtue of secondary assists. Every time people compare Sid's PPG or raw point totals to Ovechkin's, this is precisely what they are doing. Most people don't even realize they are doing it.

That's cool, we can leave out secondary assists and just look at the primary points PPG where Crosby has been top-10 all-time producer throughout his career. Well until this season when McDavid has jumped ahead of him and dropped Crosby to 11th spot. If we leave out the old timers from early days of NHL (Lalonde, Malone, Cameron and Denneny) by inserting some qualification of number of primary points (to say minimum of 400 career primary points), Crosby is 7th all-time in PPG behind only Gretzky, Lemieux, Bossy, Dionne, Esposito and McDavid (with McDavid also falling off for the time being with that 400 point minimum). Crosby's primary points PPG is higher than Ovechkin's. How's that for someone only benefitting from secondary assists and by virtue of that has been getting underserved praise?

 

[Midnight Judges]

How's that for someone only benefitting from secondary assists and by virtue of that has been getting underserved praise?

Whoever said whatever you just typed, you should respond to that person.

 

[Midnight Judges]

So you are really going to hang your hat on, “The scorekeepers cheat”?

I’ll get the tin foil hats.

No need for tin foil hats. The data is perfectly clear.

 

[Beauner]

Crosby's primary points PPG is higher than Ovechkin's. How's that for someone only benefitting from secondary assists and by virtue of that has been getting underserved praise?

Ovechkin is more of a scorer too, so you'd think he'd have more primary points. Yeesh.

No need for tin foil hats. The data is perfectly clear.

To you, and only you.

 

[Vujtek]

Whoever said whatever you just typed, you should respond to that person.

What on Earth are you talking about? I clearly quoted you and responded to your nonsense of a post with some actual facts instead of the same old lies you continue to spread here.

You keep telling continuously how Crosby's only claim for best player of his generation is in secondary assists. Well he's been top-10 all-time primary points PPG producer throughout his career, best of his generation, better than Ovechkin. Do explain how that is possible for someone whose only claim for the best player title is in secondary assists, as you keep on repeating on loops? Yeah, I know you're not able to produce a claim. You ignore these facts, just like you did during the playoffs when I pointed out one of your false claims to which you never bothered to respond and admit your mistake then. What a shocker.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Do explain how that is possible for someone whose only claim for the best player title is in secondary assists...

I never said that, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't call me a liar while simultaneously misrepresenting my opinions.

Go back and read what I wrote.

BTW I am not saying Crosby doesn't have a case for best player of his generation without secondary assists, I'm just pointing out that his case is almost always made in such a way that it heavily weighs secondary assists - which is what PPG does.

Sid's case is greatly weakened when secondary assists are omitted, perhaps fatally.

 

[Midnight Judges]

To you, and only you.

If the data is clear to me, and only me, then how am I able to post links to 5 different sources who have the same understanding? -All of which are perfectly consistent with everything I've said?

What is the objective value of an assist?

Simplify scoring: drop the pointless secondary assist

The Second Assist: Statistic or Gift?

https://www.tsn.ca/the-noise-surrounding-secondary-assists-1.1134501

Some NHL Stars Get More Assists At Home Than They Deserve

 

[Vujtek]

I never said that. Go back and read what I wrote. And try to comprehend it this time.

"has benefitted more from secondary assists than any other player in the history of the game"
"only player in the history of the game where people will claim he is the best player of his generation by virtue of secondary assists"

Those are your actual quotes. Neither of which have any factual basis, just your usual nonsense. But go ahead and try to deny the meaning of your statements there.

Also nice to see how you ignore the basis of my posts on how Crosby has been a top-10 all-time primary point producer one game-by-game basis throughout his career. Zero comments on that from you. What a shocker.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Also nice to see how you ignore the basis of my posts on how Crosby has been a top-10 all-time primary point producer one game-by-game basis throughout his career. Zero comments on that from you. What a shocker.

I am happy to address that.

It's a cherry picked stat because you are comparing 31 year old Crosby to players who have played their entire careers including their declines (with a few exceptions like Bossy and Orr). Many of those players played several hundred games at an older age than Crosby is right now. Your comparison is therefore not equitable to the players of the past, and while it does show something, it's largely invalid.

A proper comparison would be Crosby vs other players at this point in their careers and then adjusted for league wide scoring averages and perhaps adjusted for top end scorer averages (these things mostly work in Crosby's favor) to take things like powerplay opportunities per game into account.

 

[Vujtek]

I am happy to address that.

It's a cherry picked stat because you are comparing 31 year old Crosby to players who have played their entire careers including their declines (with a few exceptions like Bossy and Orr). Many of those players played several hundred games at an older age than Crosby is right now. Your comparison is therefore not equitable to the players of the past, and while it does show something, it's largely invalid.

A proper comparison would be Crosby vs other players at this point in their careers and then adjusted for league wide scoring averages and perhaps adjusted for top end scorer averages (these things mostly work in Crosby's favor) to take things like powerplay opportunities per game into account.

Now that you mentioned Orr, without secondaries his career PPG drops from 6th to outside of top-20. Yes, that is to be expected from a D-man. But when your claim was that nobody has ever in the history of NHL benefited from secondary assists like Crosby, well there's one counter point. Yes, Orr has lots of other claims for GOAT, like Crosby has for best of his generation, but in the context of secondary assists there's an all-time great who takes a deep dive in PPG without secondaries - to much higher degree that Crosby.

Yes, there are always flaws when using any all-time stat (either PPG or raw totals) when players have had different career arcs (some have played long career, so have been forced to retire near their peak, some are still active and thus their stats are continually evolving), but when the claim is that Crosby has benefited from secondary assists unlike any other player before or that his claim for best of his generation relies on secondaries, it's a meaningful stat to bring out to prove those claims false. And at worst it's a meaningful stat to negate that baseless claim which have zero statistical basis.

 

[Midnight Judges]

"has benefitted more from secondary assists than any other player in the history of the game"
"only player in the history of the game where people will claim he is the best player of his generation by virtue of secondary assists"

Those are your actual quotes. Neither of which have any factual basis....

Of course they do. Take all the best players from the previous generations:

Jagr
Gretzky
Orr
Howe
Richard
Shore

Now eliminate secondary assists from their stat lines. They still blow away their competition.

Not so for Sid.

Sid then becomes comparable on a per game basis to Ovie (.05 different or something like that), and substantially outscored through his best 14 years, while getting out-goaled by 215 or so.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Now that you mentioned Orr, without secondaries his career PPG drops from 6th to outside of top-20. Yes, that is to be expected from a D-man. But when your claim was that nobody has ever in the history of NHL benefited from secondary assists like Crosby, well there's one counter point. Yes, Orr has lots of other claims for GOAT, like Crosby has for best of his generation, but in the context of secondary assists there's an all-time great who takes a deep dive in PPG without secondaries - to much higher degree that Crosby.

Disagree. Compare Orr with other defensemen.

Take away secondary assists from their offensive stats.

Orr still crushes them all.

 

[authentic]

Secondary assist on powerplay is basically a participation point. 99% of them are completely replaceable plays by most good NHL players.

Not even close.

 

[Vujtek]

Of course they do. Take all the best players from the previous generations:

Jagr
Gretzky
Orr
Howe
Richard
Shore

Now eliminate secondary assists from their stat lines. They still blow away their competition.

Not so for Sid.

Sid then becomes comparable on a per game basis to Ovie (.05 different or something like that), and substantially outscored through his best 14 years, while getting out-goaled by 215 or so.

Do you consider Syl Apps Sr. same generation as Richard? Because Apps has higher primary points per game ratio than Richard (or Howe for that matter). Short career and what not but when looking at PPG he's ahead.

Beliveau is closer to Howe in all-time primary points per game ratio than Ovechkin is to Crosby. Raw totals aren't close so Howe does have that over Beliveau.

One would have to run the closer numbers on Jagr from his so called prime (and then it's a question on how that is defined; and for his competitors as well) but career wise Yzerman, Brett Hull, Bure, Sakic and Lindros are ahead of him in primary points PPG. They all overlapped most or all of their careers with Jagr (though Yzerman's offensive peak was just before Jagr arrived into NHL). Yes, Jagr's dropped due to his long career but same happened to Yzerman, Hull and Sakic too of them so again one would need to dig deeper to get better comparison.

As for modern day players - there's exactly four players with career primary points per game ratio over 0.850 (atleast prior to this season, I haven't checked on Kane's and Kucherov's up-to-date stats). I'm sure the names are easy to guess but here they are: Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin and McDavid. Now I guess you and should put McDavid to different generation with the other group. Crosby has the highest primary points per game ratio of him, Ovechkin and Malkin. If you look at career primary points per game totals, Crosby's "blowing away his competition" just like Howe did (Richard and Beliveau are at striking distance then a big gap - just like with Crosby and his generation).

Disagree. Compare Orr with other defensemen.

Take away secondary assists from their offensive stats.

Orr still crushes them all.

Well not Harry Cameron who would be in 6th all-time PPG without secondary assists. But yeah, no one else is close, but still no going behind the fact that Orr's PPG is boosted by secondary assists - to a higher degree than Crosby's. Not in comparison to other D-man, but in comparison to Crosby who you claimed was the biggest beficiary of all-time. I vehemently disagree with that.

 

[pi314]

"has benefitted more from secondary assists than any other player in the history of the game"
"only player in the history of the game where people will claim he is the best player of his generation by virtue of secondary assists"

Those are your actual quotes. Neither of which have any factual basis, just your usual nonsense. But go ahead and try to deny the meaning of your statements there.

Also nice to see how you ignore the basis of my posts on how Crosby has been a top-10 all-time primary point producer one game-by-game basis throughout his career. Zero comments on that from you. What a shocker.

Game. Set. Match.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Do you consider Syl Apps Sr. same generation as Richard? Because Apps has higher primary points per game ratio than Richard (or Howe for that matter). Short career and what not but when looking at PPG he's ahead.

Beliveau is closer to Howe in all-time primary points per game ratio than Ovechkin is to Crosby. Raw totals aren't close so Howe does have that over Beliveau.

One would have to run the closer numbers on Jagr from his so called prime (and then it's a question on how that is defined; and for his competitors as well) but career wise Yzerman, Brett Hull, Bure, Sakic and Lindros are ahead of him in primary points PPG. They all overlapped most or all of their careers with Jagr (though Yzerman's offensive peak was just before Jagr arrived into NHL). Yes, Jagr's dropped due to his long career but same happened to Yzerman, Hull and Sakic too of them so again one would need to dig deeper to get better comparison.

As for modern day players - there's exactly four players with career primary points per game ratio over 0.850 (atleast prior to this season, I haven't checked on Kane's and Kucherov's up-to-date stats). I'm sure the names are easy to guess but here they are: Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin and McDavid. Now I guess you and should put McDavid to different generation with the other group. Crosby has the highest primary points per game ratio of him, Ovechkin and Malkin. If you look at career primary points per game totals, Crosby's "blowing away his competition" just like Howe did (Richard and Beliveau are at striking distance then a big gap - just like with Crosby and his generation).

Well not Harry Cameron who would be in 6th all-time PPG without secondary assists. But yeah, no one else is close, but still no going behind the fact that Orr's PPG is boosted by secondary assists - to a higher degree than Crosby's. Not in comparison to other D-man, but in comparison to Crosby who you claimed was the biggest beficiary of all-time. I vehemently disagree with that.

Few things:

1) You have to factor in league wide scoring averages. Yzerman played far more seasons than Jagr in the high scoring era. It's a huge factor. If you don't account for it, it's just not equitable. Agree you gotta look deeper especially for players whose careers straddle the high scoring era, the DPE, and post lockout (which is really more DPE for the most part).

2) Points are not the only thing propping up the other greats. Richard had a Hart and 5 goal scoring titles to Apps's 0 and 0. No such rationale applies for Sid, who has 2 Harts to Ovechkin's 3, and 2 goal scoring titles to Ovechkin's 7 (and counting). Sid's case as an individual over Ovechkin is almost entirely dependent on PPG.

3) Howe blows away his competition in Harts and longevity. Sid does neither as of now. TBD on longevity.

4) I don't see how stats from Harry Cameron's day are remotely comparable to Orr's, let along his 24 game seasons and 129 game career. The numbers are all over the place.

 

[koyvoo]

Game. Set. Match.

I’ll bet not. Some people just refuse to concede, especially when their attachment to a narrative is far more emotionally based than logical. Still, it is not always fun watching people continuing to fight losing battles.

My buddy showed me an article about a lady in Colombia who has spent virtually every waking hour of her life since 1985 praying for the conversation of Satan. Literally. It’s funny, but imagine living an existence like that.

 

[Beauner]

I’ll bet not. Some people just refuse to concede, especially when their attachment to a narrative is far more emotionally based than logical. Still, it is not always fun watching people continuing to fight losing battles.

My buddy showed me an article about a lady in Colombia who has spent virtually every waking hour of her life since 1985 praying for the conversation of Satan. Literally. It’s funny, but imagine living an existence like that.

See, that example is legitimately sad.

But when it comes to talking about a game, someone clinging to a false narrative even after being shut down countless times is f***ing hilarious.