Presidents Trophy Curse

[sonic92]

Since the 05 lockout, only two teams (the 08 Red Wings and 13 Blackhawks) have managed to win the cup after winning the Presidents Trophy for the best record in the regular season.

In those 18 seasons, only five of those Presidents Trophy winners (the aforementioned two plus the 07 Sabres, 11 Canucks and 15 Rangers) have got past even the second round.

Six of those (06 Red Wings, 09 Sharks, 10 Capitals, 12 Canucks, 19 Lightning and 23 Bruins) have lost in the first round.

Now do you believe that there's a curse?

Click to read more...

 

[BayStBullies]

Winning the cup isn't easy. I don't find that stat surprising. Isn't that still 1 in 9 odds? That's well above average.

 

[Rschmitz]

Since the 05 lockout, only two teams (the 08 Red Wings and 13 Blackhawks) have managed to win the cup after winning the Presidents Trophy for the best record in the regular season.

In those 18 seasons, only five of those Presidents Trophy winners (the aforementioned two plus the 07 Sabres, 11 Canucks and 15 Rangers) have got past even the second round.

Six of those (06 Red Wings, 09 Sharks, 10 Capitals, 12 Canucks, 19 Lightning and 23 Bruins) have lost in the first round.

Now do you believe that there's a curse?

There are no such things as curses, but it certainly validates the idea that the regular season and postseason are played very differently and how the Cup is the hardest trophy to win in sports.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

It’s not a curse. Teams finishing 1st still have won more than any other seeding.

 

[BTP]

I told yall months ago the Presidents Trophy curse was going to f*** the Bruins hard this series. Let me bump that thread

 

[abo9]

Winning the cup isn't easy. I don't find that stat surprising. Isn't that still 1 in 9 odds? That's well above average.

Ding ding ding.

There's 16 teams participating in the playoffs. If the winner was decided at random, the president trophy winner would win 1.12 times over 18 years (6.25% chance of winning). President trophy team won twice? That's a 11.1% win rate.

If the results were at random, they'd get past the first round 50% of the time (9 years), and past the 2nd 25% of the time (4.5 years). 12 President trophy winners made it to the second round (66.67% winrate) and 5 past the second (27.7% win rate)

The sample size is nowhere near big enough to conclude anything, but if anything, those results do suggest that the President Trophy winning team has a better chance of winning than if the winner was determined at random.

Which should make sense to any NHL fan; the best team in the regular season is strong, but parity amongst playoff teams is pretty strong as well. And the further you get in the playoffs, the more you play other teams close in talent.

Add in to that playoff realities like injuries, and it makes sense that the President trophy winner isn't overwhelmingly winning cups.

Nothing here suggests a curse

 

[JaegerDice]

There’s no curse. The #1 seed wins the cup more than any other seed.

Being the best team wire-to-wire is tough. Not every #1 seed is going to win.

The 2008 Red Wings and 2013 Blackhawks are the two best teams of the cap era. Holding any President’s Trophy winning team up to those standards is pretty unfair.

 

[Hoek]

Not a curse but it is pretty crazy how few even get past the second round. I'd expect most of them to fail but not that early.

 

[kingsholygrail]

1986 Edmonton 119pts lost to Calgary 89pts in the Division Finals
1987 Edmonton 106pts wins the Stanley Cup
1988 Calgary 105pts loses to Edmonton 99pts in the Division Finals
1989 Calgary 117pts wins the Stanley Cup
1990 Boston 101pts loses to Edmonton 90pts in the SCF
1991 Chicago 106pts loses to Minnesota 68pts in the Division Semifinals
1992 New York Rangers 105pts loses to Pittsburgh 87pts in the Division Finals
1993 Pittsburgh 119pts loses to New York Islanders 87pts in the Division Finals
1994 New York Rangers 112pts wins the Stanley Cup
1995 Detroit 70pts loses to New Jersey 52pts in the SCF
1996 Detroit 131pts loses to Colorado 104pts in the WCF
1997 Colorado 107pts loses to Detroit 94pts in the WCF
1998 Dallas 109pts loses to Detroit 103pts in the WCF
1999 Dallas 114pts wins the Stanley Cup
2000 St. Louis 114pts loses to San Jose 87pts in the 1st round
2001 Colorado 118pts wins the Stanley Cup
2002 Detroit 116pts wins the Stanley Cup
2003 Ottawa 113pts loses to New Jersey in the ECF
2004 Detroit 109pts lost to Calgary 94pts in the 2nd round
2006 Detroit 124pts lost to Edmonton 95pts in the 1st round
2007 Buffalo(tied with Detroit in points, but had more wins) 113pts lost to Ottawa 105pts in the ECF
2008 Detroit 115pts wins the Stanley Cup
2009 San Jose 117pts loses to Anaheim 91pts in the 1st round
2010 Washington 121pts loses to Montreal 88pts in the 1st round
2011 Vancouver 117pts loses to Boston 103pts in the SCF
2012 Vancouver 111pts loses to Los Angeles 95pts in the 1st round
2013 Chicago 77pts wins the Stanley Cup
2014 Boston 117pts loses to Montreal 100pts in the 2nd round
2015 New York Rangers 113pts loses to Tampa Bay 108pts in the ECF
2016 Washington 120pts loses to Pittsburgh 104pts in the 2nd round
2017 Washington 118pts loses to Pittsburgh 111pts in the 2nd round
2018 Nashville 117pts loses to Winnipeg 114pts in the 2nd round
2019 Tampa Bay 128pts loses to Columbus 98pts in the 1st round
2020 Boston .714w% loses to Tampa Bay .657w% in the 2nd round
2021 Colorado 82pts(tied with Vegas , but had more regulation wins) loses to Vegas 82pts in the 2nd round
2022 Florida 122pts loses to Tampa Bay 110pts in the 2nd round
2023 Boston 135pts loses to Florida 92pts in the 1st round

In case people were wondering from the inception of the trophy.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

Well the Avs Lightning and Caps won the cup the year after winning the Presidents Trophy.

 

[Ovi895]

Since the 05 lockout, only two teams (the 08 Red Wings and 13 Blackhawks) have managed to win the cup after winning the Presidents Trophy for the best record in the regular season.

In those 18 seasons, only five of those Presidents Trophy winners (the aforementioned two plus the 07 Sabres, 11 Canucks and 15 Rangers) have got past even the second round.

Six of those (06 Red Wings, 09 Sharks, 10 Capitals, 12 Canucks, 19 Lightning and 23 Bruins) have lost in the first round.

Now do you believe that there's a curse?

So your odds in that time frame as PT winners are 1 in 9 (vs 1 in 30.5 as a random team)?

sounds like the opposite of a curse

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Well the Avs Lightning and Caps won the cup the year after winning the Presidents Trophy.

I think these teams learn load management
Why risk injury and exhaustion during the regular season ?

 

[BlackAdam]

Prolly has more to do that the Bruins who had bagged the President's Trophy earlier on really pushed themselves after to break the record for most points in an NHL regular season and may in turn gassed them come time for the playoffs against Florida. They simply looked outworked all series.

 

[WolfgangPuck]

Shades of the Golden State Warrior dominant season in the NBA during 2015-16.
GSW set NBA season win record going 73-9 that year and were heavy favorites
was up 3-1 in the NBA finals lost to LeBron and the Cavs in 7

 

[kingsholygrail]

Florida got to play spoiler after being spoiled themselves.

 

[The don godfather]

I dont believe in that . Ice the best team to win. Need puck luck sometimes. Bruins were 59 seconds possibly winning the whole darn thing.

 

[Troy McClure]

If finishing first is cursed, what standings finish is more successful?

The answer is none.

Bit this kind of talk is why sports betting makes so much money for the house.

 

[Grifter3511]

Ding ding ding.

There's 16 teams participating in the playoffs. If the winner was decided at random, the president trophy winner would win 1.12 times over 18 years (6.25% chance of winning). President trophy team won twice? That's a 11.1% win rate.

If the results were at random, they'd get past the first round 50% of the time (9 years), and past the 2nd 25% of the time (4.5 years). 12 President trophy winners made it to the second round (66.67% winrate) and 5 past the second (27.7% win rate)

The sample size is nowhere near big enough to conclude anything, but if anything, those results do suggest that the President Trophy winning team has a better chance of winning than if the winner was determined at random.

Which should make sense to any NHL fan; the best team in the regular season is strong, but parity amongst playoff teams is pretty strong as well. And the further you get in the playoffs, the more you play other teams close in talent.

Add in to that playoff realities like injuries, and it makes sense that the President trophy winner isn't overwhelmingly winning cups.

Nothing here suggests a curse

Bam!

Sticky this mutha f***a so this false narrative can die a quick death.

 

[OhBennyLeonard]

Isn't that still 1 in 9 odds? That's well above average.

??
Average in that most other sports leagues have less odds from best reg. season to champion? Because if you meant 1 in 9 is mathematically average I think 1 in 9 is the opposite of average.

If I was the 1 guy in 9 guys (or part of 10 guys in 90 or 100 in 900 etc.) that had a Stanley Cup ring, wouldn't that mathematically be the definition of above average, very above average?

Just because we are all fans of hockey doesn't mean we can't compute lol.

 

[kingsholygrail]

If finishing first is cursed, what standings finish is more successful?

The answer is none.

Bit this kind of talk is why sports betting makes so much money for the house.

I know I did the leg work a number of years ago, but it was something like 95% of all Stanley Cup winners since the expansion finished in the top 4 during the season. #1 isn't getting it all the time, but someone near the top is.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

I dont believe in that . Ice the best team to win. Need puck luck sometimes. Bruins were 59 seconds possibly winning the whole darn thing.

Boston was lucky to be in that position tbh. Florida was the superior 5 on 5 team nearly all series.

 

[Vegas07]

It’s happened in other sports.

Patriots were 16-0. Played a 10-6 team in the Super Bowl and put up by far their lowest point total after looking unstoppable in every game. And that was with Tom Brady at quarterback.

Cubs in 1906 and 2001 Mariners won 116 games. The Cubs only needed to win one series and still lost. Mariners lost in 5 to the Yankees and barely made it past the first round.

Warriors were 73-9, were down 3-1 to OKC and needed 7 games in that series, then were up 3-1 in the Finals and lost at home twice in 3 games.

And now we have the 2023 Bruins.

 

[Tawnos]

Winning the cup isn't easy. I don't find that stat surprising. Isn't that still 1 in 9 odds? That's well above average.

If we're talking since the 05 lockout?

1st: 2
2nd: 2
3rd: 2
4th: 3
5th: 0
6th: 1
7th: 1
8th: 2
9th: 2
10th: 0
11th: 1
12th: 0
13th: 1
Everyone else: 0

It's 11.76% of the time for the President's Trophy winner, which is better than the random 6.25% of playoff teams. But it isn't really an advantage compared to simply finishing near the top of the league.

 

[Matty Sundin]

Reasons why tanking can go both ways

 

[scholl]

Now do you believe that there's a curse?

I really like this curse. As a Panthers fan it feels so nice to pass the honor to fans of another team.

Honestly regular season is too easy for a team that wins almost all its games. They don't know what hard is. They also don't have some off nights when they save energy because they are so interested in statistics. This first reason is why Florida battled harder and the second reason explains why some Boston players were either injured or exhausted now when it counted. Many of them are also quite old compared to relatively young Florida players. Turnovers for example doesn't happen without the other team's forwarders being very active.