Preparation trumps skill?

[PatrikBerglund]

Looking at team Finland vs team Sweden in this year's WCs. Only 2-3 Finns where the most would've cracked the Swedish roster when it comes to skill and talent - yet they beat both Sweden, Russia and Canada.

Over an 82 games schedule in a group with only these teams, Finland would've gotten obliterated, but in this short tournament they smashed teams who on paper and vastly superior.

Finaland was together 6-7 weeks before WCs started, if I have understood it correctly - while most of the players in Sweden, Canada and Russia turned up just a few days before.

The only big difference I see is the time of preparation, did this variable really dictate the results in such a big way?

What else?

Click to read more...

 

[Halberdier]

Looking at team Finland vs team Sweden in this year's WCs. Only 2-3 Finns where the most would've cracked the Swedish roster when it comes to skill and talent - yet they beat both Sweden, Russia and Canada.

To be fair, only 2-3 of those would crack in to a better Team Finland WC roster and none into an OC roster.

Out of those guys 18 made their first appearance in WHC, and that's not because they are young (except Kakko). Captain Mörkö had just his 34th birthday, Kuusela is 36.

As you said, they were well prepared. They followed their system almost perfectly, and it did work.

 

[FiLe]

Preparation *can* trump skill in a short tournament, as Finland just proved everyone, but we should by no means treat this as the "new normal". As sweet a feat as this was, it was still very much an anomaly in the big picture. Most titles have still been won by squads you'd expect to win by eyeballing their rosters - and this will also be the case in the future. For example, in most years Switzerland's icing a squad that roughly equates this year's Finnish team in skill. The Swiss player pool is also a lot narrower than the elite's, meaning the player rotation from year to year is not so radical - this year's Team Switzerland had 15 players returning from the last year. What I'm saying is, if preparation really was preferable to skill, you'd have seen the Swiss capture one or two titles already. Finland might also have a title or two or more.

Preparation and team cohesion can help capture medals, we Finns are prime examples of that, and were even before this year. But the underdog going 3-0 in the final stage is still an extremely rare occurrence, and any country, including Finland, is still going to need their top players to show up regularly if they wish to dream about any kind of constant success.

 

[Esko6]

Team Finland was fantastic, but lets be honest, 9 out of 10 times they would have lost to Russia or Canada. All the puck luck aligned for them. The Sweden game was surprisingly even.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Jukka Jalonen is the best coach Finland has had.

 

[kalle wirsch]

Spirit trumps skills.There a lot of examples in sport,where a lesser talented team beats the big favourites.In football Greece and Danmark won the Euro.The miracle on ice is maybe the best example.

 

[IceHockeyDude]

Why would anyone even point out what would happen in 82 games when everyone knows it's a tournament. Besides VGK did pretty well last season. Finland was the best team in this tournament and won over Sweden, Russia and Canada (twice). See you in Switzerland next year.

 

[Lambo]

Team Finland was fantastic, but lets be honest, 9 out of 10 times they would have lost to Russia or Canada. All the puck luck aligned for them. The Sweden game was surprisingly even.

Yes for 10 Games vs Russia,Finland need this Team:

Teräväinen-Barkov-Laine
Granlund-Aho-Rantanen
Filppula-Koivu-Kapanen
Komarov-Kotkaniemi-Kakko

Ristolainen-Heiskanen
Vatanen-Lindell
Nutivaara-Maatta

Rask
Rinne

Then i sa good bye Russia!

 

[happysquirrel]

Team Finland was fantastic, but lets be honest, 9 out of 10 times they would have lost to Russia or Canada. All the puck luck aligned for them.

What stats support the idea that Finland would have lost 9 out of 10 times to Russia?

 

[Ippenator]

Looking at team Finland vs team Sweden in this year's WCs. Only 2-3 Finns where the most would've cracked the Swedish roster when it comes to skill and talent - yet they beat both Sweden, Russia and Canada.

Over an 82 games schedule in a group with only these teams, Finland would've gotten obliterated, but in this short tournament they smashed teams who on paper and vastly superior.

Finaland was together 6-7 weeks before WCs started, if I have understood it correctly - while most of the players in Sweden, Canada and Russia turned up just a few days before.

The only big difference I see is the time of preparation, did this variable really dictate the results in such a big way?

What else?

What some of you guys don’t seem to understand is that no, the final team wasn’t really together that long, as they had a lot of players that were cut off the team after all. Also some guys were added after Liiga finals were over, not that long before the WHC already started. They tried different lines and players and nothing was at all really polished all that time.

Of course Jalonen’s system has been built through the whole season though, and many players have got already the taste of the basic system during the autumn EHT tournaments. But this is how it has been for a really long time already, so nothing new in that.

The huge difference though was that after an awful, awful national team coach that we had for over two years in Marjamäki, we finally got again a very smart coach whom understands both, the game and the people extremely well. Without Jukka Jalonen or Erkka Westerlund (the other of the real all time Finnish top class coaches) as the national team coach, Finland will not win anything with a team missing clear star players.

This was a clear win for coaching. Preparation was a small part of it, but the true factor was the world class coaching and the relatively small difference that there is after all between NHL class and top European league class.

Just like Jukka Jalonen said in an interview: ”There might be some slight puck skills differences between the NHL and top European leagues, but otherwise the difference is practically non-existant in every other area in hockey.”

 

[koyvoo]

That’s silly. You can visibly see the difference in skill level, although the gap is much smaller than it once was.

It’s not like when Finlyis going to select its very best team half or even a quarter will be from the Liiga. It’ll be almost all NHLers because the Finns in the NHL are far more skilled than the Finns in the home league.

I’d say if Finland picked a team today for true best on best, there would be 3-5 at most liiga players on their roster, maybe not even that much and the rest would be from the far superior Finns in the NHL.

 

[FiLe]

What some of you guys don’t seem to understand is that no, the final team wasn’t really together that long, as they had a lot of players that were cut off the team after all. Also some guys were added after Liiga finals were over, not that long before the WHC already started. They tried different lines and players and nothing was at all really polished all that time.

The 6-7 weeks mentioned by the OP is clearly wrong. But regardless, the most of the team actually was together for an unusually long time. 11 out of the final 25 players were on the first camp roster, five weeks before the puck drop vs. Canada. Three new players who made it joined for the 2nd roster, four weeks ahead of time, and eight new ones for the third, meaning 21/25 of the final team were together for three weeks before the games began. They only added three new players from the Liiga finals (and one of them was the third string goalie).

Undoubtedly Finland's achievement was a coaching triumph, but it is a valid question to ponder if they also benefited from being together for quite a while before the games began, receiving instructions from Jalonen. Sure, there are issues that can only be worked out once the final team's been selected, like finding working line combinations, but there's also a lot of things related to the game plan that can be drilled into the players before these finishing touches. The squad that skated into the rink for the tournament opener was hardly a team ready to win the gold medal game, but they likely had a significant head start.

In any case, like I said already, we shouldn't expect this to become the new normal despite the approach working this one time. And Jalonen appears to agree, given how he gave statements about how he expects many more NHLers to join the next year once they've got their new contracts sorted out.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Skill beats everything else if judged on an even basis and over a sample size more than a game. If you have a moderately skilled team that is set up extremely well for success (Finland), you probably beat a highly skilled team that is just a collection of individuals out there (Sweden). However, if we had been in a system that was competent, I don't think Finland gets past us.

I don't think I've ever seen a Team Sweden look so in shambles as we did this tournament, and it was still an even game. That if anything shows how much skill means.

Another point is that I think people underestimate the skill of that Finnish team. They were a impact players in their professional leagues who were almost all coming off great seasons, and who embraced their underdog role to work their asses of for each other. If you watched their games, and I hope you did, they didn't just grind themselves to victory. They consistently displayed skill and poise. Maybe not on the level that Vorachek, Kucherov, and Nylander did this tournament, but enough to be effective.

 

[Ippenator]

That’s silly. You can visibly see the difference in skill level, although the gap is much smaller than it once was.

It’s not like when Finlyis going to select its very best team half or even a quarter will be from the Liiga. It’ll be almost all NHLers because the Finns in the NHL are far more skilled than the Finns in the home league.

I’d say if Finland picked a team today for true best on best, there would be 3-5 at most liiga players on their roster, maybe not even that much and the rest would be from the far superior Finns in the NHL.

No one has really claimed that there isn't any skill difference between the NHL and the top European leagues. There is some difference exactly with the puck handling for the benefit of the NHL naturally. The difference just isnt't huge anymore. But with skating, strength, general hockey IQ (the absolute top NHL players might be in their own class in this area though, but there aren't that many of them really), passing skills, defending skills or the goaltending, there are very small differences, if even any.

 

[koyvoo]

No one has really claimed that there isn't any skill difference between the NHL and the top European leagues. There is some difference exactly with the puck handling for the benefit of the NHL naturally. The difference just isnt't huge anymore. But with skating, strength, hockey IQ, passing skills, defending skills or the goaltending, there is very small differences, if even any.

The difference is so big that if Finland picked their best team today from all pros avail to them, it would be an overwhelming NHL laden team because the Finns in the NHL are immensely better than the Finns in the home league. Guys like Barkov, Rantanen, Aho, Heiskanen, Rask etc are light years better than the Finns in the Liiga.

 

[Ippenator]

The difference is so big that if Finland picked their best team today from all pros avail to them, it would be an overwhelming NHL laden team because the Finns in the NHL are immensely better than the Finns in the home league. Guys like Barkov, Rantanen, Aho, Heiskanen etc are light years better than the Finns in the Liiga.

Of course they are better than the Liiga players, because they are real top class players even in the NHL. But even though they are clearly better than the best Liiga players in general, I can assure you that none of them are MASSIVELY better than the best players in Liiga, SHL, KHL, NLA or even the Czech Extraliga. Sure better, but none of them would completely massively produce more points in those leagues than the best players there usually produce. Maybe a 10-30 point difference in points in a full season, but to think that there would be any bigger differences in the points, is seriously naive. Most probably the difference would be something like 10-20 points in most of this class of player's case.

 

[koyvoo]

Of course they are better than the Liiga players, because they are real top class players even in the NHL. But even though they are clearly better than the best Liiga players in general, I can assure you that none of them are MASSIVELY better than the best players in Liiga, SEL, KHL, NLA or even the Czech Extraliga. Sure better, but none of them would completely massively produce more points in those leagues than the best players there usually produce. Maybe a 10-30 point difference in points in a full season, but to think that there would be any bigger differences in the points, is seriously naive. Most probably the difference would be something like 10-20 points in most of this class of players case.

Of course they are massively better. That’s why the choice to choose them over Liiga players for a true best of Finland team would be a spilt second and very easy, no brainer decision to make. Because they are very clearly very superior. That’s why the overwhelming majority of Finns are considering this recent win as a mini miracle. Because it’s miraculous that these players beat teams with NHLers. If not, how would it be miraculous?

 

[Ippenator]

Of course they are massively better. That’s why the choice to choose them over Liiga players for a true best of Finland team would be a spilt second and very easy, no brainer decision to make. Because they are very clearly very superior. That’s why the overwhelming majority of Finns are considering this recent win as a mini miracle. Because it’s miraculous that these players beat teams with NHLers. If not, how would it be miraculous?

You are showing exactly the delusional thinking that especially way too many North Americans have about hockey. The same goes to some enthusiastic wannabe North American Finns that we have whom adore the NHL and everything North American without questioning anything that exists or comes from there.

Honestly I'm pretty darn sure, that most likely none of the best Finns in the NHL would crack 85 points in Liiga for a full season. Some of the best of them would most likely barely crack even 70 points in a season (the scoring title is usually won lately with about 60 points), and some of them wouldn't get even that. We might even have the chance to see about it when the next lockout happens likely quite soon.

 

[koyvoo]

You are showing exactly the delusional thinking that especially way too many North Americans have about hockey. The same goes to some enthusiastic wannabe North American Finns that we have whom adore the NHL and everything North American without questioning anything that exists or comes from there.

Honestly I'm pretty darn sure, that none of the best Finns in the NHL would most likely crack 85 points in Liiga for a full season. Some of the best of them would most likely barely crack even 70 points in a season (the scoring title is usually won lately with about 60 points), and some of them wouldn't get even that. We might even have the chance to see about it when the next lockout happens likely quite soon.

I can assure you not only North Americans feel that way and to think so is beyond delusional. You know who else thinks that? All the European national team organizers and managers who put their teams together and generally pick NHL players ahead of home league players because it’s beyond obvious who generally, they are much, much better players to choose.

I don’t know what the point totals would be, but guys like Barkov and Rantanen and Aho, because they are so ridiculously superior would generally out score players not good enough to make the NHL significantly. This is one of many reasons they’d be no brainer choices for an actual best of Finnish team.

 

[NyQuil]

All the preparation in the world is worthless if your goalie doesn't stand on his head.

 

[Ippenator]

I can assure you not only North Americans feel that way and to think so is beyond delusional. You know who else thinks that? All the European national team organizers and managers who put their teams together and generally pick NHL players ahead of home league players because it’s beyond obvious who generally, they are much, much better players to choose.

I don’t know what the point totals would be, but guys like Barkov and Rantanen and Aho, because they are so ridiculously superior would generally out score players not good enough to make the NHL significantly. This is one of many reasons they’d be no brainer choices for an actual best of Finnish team.

I'm not arguing that they aren't better than the present best Liiga players. Just that the difference isn't even close to what you claim it to be. Of course they will be chosen if they are available, but still the difference between them and the European league top players isn't massive. There's a difference still, that would get them chosen as the best available players. Just not by any means a massive difference though.

And I don't care if even many so called "experts" think like you claim (in fact I'm pretty sure that many don't even think that way, it's just easy for you to claim whatever supports your agenda), but I know that one of the best coaches (Jukka Jalonen) in the world has said pretty much what I'm claiming, and I believe absolutely rather in what he says and what my own eyes have told me for about two decades already, than in what you believe in, or claim some "experts" to believe in. But lets see how the lockout season will go. I'm pretty sure that loads of the NHL worshippers are going to be very disappointed and even shocked then.

 

[jj cale]

All the preparation in the world is worthless if your goalie doesn't stand on his head.

Bingo, in the end he basically was the difference, put a goalie in there that played at a lower level then he did and Finland is probably toast in the first period alone, Finland was strongly outplayed in the first period and were massively outplayed in the third and he saved them both times, he was in the zone and if he had not been so damn sharp they surely would have lost that game. That is not to say the preparation time together and coaching did not play a part or that the Finns didn't play great as a team for most of the tournament but in the end he was the difference maker,at least in the gold medal game he was and teams that get that type of game saving/winning goaltending is cyclical.

Of course, before anyone loses their head at me here for simply being honest let me hasten to add that the goaltender is part of the team. Not for one second am i saying they did not deserve to win because the guy played so good.

 

[koyvoo]

I'm not arguing that they aren't better than the present best Liiga players. Just that the difference isn't even close to what you claim it to be. And I don't care if even many so called "experts" think like you claim (in fact I'm pretty sure that many don't even think that way, it's just easy for you to claim whatever supports your agenda), but I know that one of the best coaches (Jukka Jalonen) in the world has said pretty much what I'm claiming, and I believe absolutely rather in what he says and what my own eyes have told me for about two decades already, than in what you believe in, or claim some "experts" to believe in. But lets see how the lockout season will go. I'm pretty sure that loads of the NHL worshippers are going to be very disappointed and even shocked then.

Jukka Jalonen, if selecting the team would choose the NHLers just like anyone else who has e en a little bit of a clue, and he would choose them without thinking a split second about it because of how vastly superior they are. No matter what he says to sound diplomatic. The proof will be in when the next Finnish best on best team is selected, by whoever is selecting it (provide the have an ounce of understanding for this sport).

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

Bingo, in the end he basically was the difference, put a goalie in there that played at a lower level then he did and Finland is probably toast in the first period alone, Finland was strongly outplayed in the first period and were massively outplayed in the third and he saved them both times, he was in the zone and if he had not been so damn sharp they surely would have lost that game. That is not to say the preparation time together and coaching did not play a part or that the Finns didn't play great as a team for most of the tournament but in the end he was the difference maker,at least in the gold medal game he was and teams that get that type of game saving/winning goaltending is cyclical.

Of course, before anyone loses their head at me here for simply being honest let me hasten to add that the goaltender is part of the team. Not for one second am i saying they did not deserve to win because the guy played so good.

He was sent DOWN from the AHL if i recall correctly.

 

[jj cale]

He was sent DOWN from the AHL if i recall correctly.

Really? well, he sure came up roses when it mattered. I mean he clearly was the single biggest difference in that game. I said in the gdt before the game started that it would be in the end whoever won the goalie duel, well..................he won it and they won it. Also, what I mean by lower level was level of goaltending play he displayed in that game not what level of league he played in.

Anything less then what he did on Sunday and we are talking about a Canadian gold not a Finnish one, it's that simple. He was the biggest difference maker in that game and was better then anybody else on that ice.