I've been wondering about the probable punishment for the HMRC thing.
A fine gets all the money back and then some. Certainly the quickest and easiest way to settle it all and not really rile up the supporters in a meaningful way.
Although it seems Luton may have received a 10pt deduction for a similar type of tactic. This would be tragic and, as things stand, send Newcastle into 17th level with Southampton. I would be shocked if such a thing would happen in season, though.
Would the Premier League actually inflict the punishment or could the FA go over their head?
In Luton's case the FA administered the punishment. It's worth noting, meanwhile, that a few sympathetic journalists claimed that although Luton had broken the letter of the law, they hadn't broken it's spirit.
Based on the High Court summary explaining it's rejection of NUFC's appeal over the seizure of documents relating to the case, if the club is found guilty there will be no such wriggle room to claim they intended no harm. HMRC intimated a flat out conspiracy to commit fraud respecting VAT, national insurance and income tax.
These are fundamentally antisocial crimes to be accused of at any time, let alone the Austerity era, and the public (rightly in my view) has little mercy for those who'd avoid paying their fair share towards the common good. This in turn holds out the possibility of the matter being politicised
.
So, let's hypothesise that NUFC are found guilty- hard though it is to conceive of a Mike Ashley-run business trying to dodge financial obligations. If the powers that be wished to make a token gesture to the effect that English football is serious about stamping out financial crookedness (and the I reckon FA would prove able to wheel out a suit that could say this publicly without the least ironic smirk or hint of shame), Newcastle would be heaven-sent candidates to take the fall. A high-profile club, but crucially one without the political clout either within the game or the wider world. And an owner who a healthy number of politicians and media outlets alike would be happy to hang out to dry. Which means little blowback from south of the Tyne.
As usual, it's prudent to expect the worst.