You're absolutely right. While the preliminary round standings are much more predictable, the playoff round gets murkier since anything can happen in a single game of hockey. I'll try my hand at it anyway, kind of making things up as I go, and go into some further detail on the playoff round matchups that my preliminary round standings predictions would produce.
Group A:
1. Canada
2. Sweden
3. Finland
4. Slovakia
5. Latvia
6. Austria
7. France
8. Slovenia (relegated)
Group A is pretty straightforward with a few surprises possible, but that's about how I would see them shaking out.
Group B:
1. Czech Republic
2. United States
3. Denmark
4. Switzerland
5. Germany
6. Norway
7. Kazakhstan
8. Hungary (relegated)
Group B is less straightforward than group A. I put the Czechs on top because they always seem to be pretty strong in the preliminary round. The United States takes second because even though I think we have the strongest "on paper" roster of the group, we don't like to have our shit together for a tournament like this, so I'll drop us a place in favor of the Czechs. Denmark has the host thing going for them so that vaults them into third, and Switzerland edges out Germany for the final quarterfinal place, but it wouldn't really surprise me if it goes the other way. Kazakhstan edges Hungary to avoid the relegation place, and that leaves Norway in 6th, because that's all there's left at that point (but it wouldn't surprise me either to see Kazakhstan take 6th and Norway drop to 7th).
That leaves the following quarterfinal matchups:
Canada vs. Switzerland - Canada shouldn't have too much trouble dispatching Switzerland. Maybe the Swiss keep it close, but lose anyway.
Czech Republic vs. Slovakia - Slovakia could elevate their game and win it, but I think the Czechs take it anyway.
Sweden vs. Denmark - battle of the hosts! Easy advantage Sweden, depends on where the game is played (I think in this case it would be in Sweden, maybe that's where all the quarterfinals are anyway, I don't know actually).
United States vs. Finland - since I'm cynical about my own country's showings at this tournament I wouldn't put it past Finland to elevate their game and win this one, so I'll go with that.
That leaves a final four of Canada, Czech Republic, Sweden, and Finland. Since the semi-finals are re-seeded, and I don't really feel like going into the details of what the exact record will be of the teams in the preliminary round, it wouldn't be entirely fair for me to say what the semi-final matchups would be. However, I did notice I took the top three teams in group A plus the group B winner to advance, so for the sake of this rather arbitrary prediction, I can possibly form the following semifinal matchups and medal games:
Canada vs. Finland - Canada should take this one.
Czech Republic vs. Sweden - Sweden takes this one.
Canada over Sweden for the gold, leaving silver with Sweden.
Czech Republic over Finland for the bronze. Sorry Finland, you had a good run.
Very arbitrary and kind of random guesses. I will not be taking any questions.