Predicting the Hart trophy winner

[Hockey Outsider]

The following table predicts the Hart trophy winner with 100% accuracy from 2001 through 2021:

 

[Hockey Outsider]

No, I'm not presenting this as serious research. A few of the rules (especially for 2013 an 2018) were artificial, made to fit the data.

Still, this can be interpreted as a (somewhat) serious criticism of the award voters. If two decades' of results can be summarized in a simple flowchart, that means the voters are predictable. Voting results were far less predictable prior to expansion (presumably because it was possible for writers to watch a meaningful number of games from every player). In recent years, it seems like the Hart voting is a combination of stats-watching and late-season group-think narratives.

Being predictable isn't necessarily a bad thing. We don't want things to be too unpredictable. Imagine the backlash if Crosby or Kane won the Hart this year. But there's also such a thing as being not unpredictable enough. If five lines of code can replace the consensus of the voters, how much value are they really bringing to the process?

I also looked into how accurate this is from 1980 to 2000. It gets 10 seasons right, 9 seasons wrong, and 2 aren't defined (1980 and 1995 - the formula doesn't deal with what happens when there's a tie in the scoring race, but it would be easy enough to make up a rule). Not terrible, but not great. In many of the cases where the flowchart gives us the "wrong" answer, the voters decided not to give the award to Gretzky or Lemieux (1990, 1991, 1992, 1997) - presumably due to voter fatigue. In other words, another played not named Wayne Gretzky, and not compared to his run of 200+ point seasons, almost certainly would have taken the Hart in 1991.

 

[frisco]

Noticed Jagr (1998, 2000) and Lemieux (1997) would spoil the formula if you go back just a few years past 2001.

My Best-Carey

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Noticed Jagr (1998, 2000) and Lemieux (1997) would spoil the formula if you go back just a few years. past 2001.

My Best-Carey

You're right on all three (though I mentioned in the 2nd post that this flowchart is much less successful predicting the results prior to 2001).

In the case of 1997 - I think it's a result of Lemieux being judged against his own previous success. In most seasons in NHL history, if you have a forward that leads the league in scoring by 13 points, and who helps get the team into the playoffs as the #6 seed in the conference, and whose team goes 2-4 without him, he'd have a very strong case for the Hart. Lemieux's 1997 season was objectively very strong, just not overly impressive by his own (very high) standards. There are a bunch of years where Gretzky and Lemieux could have won the Hart (1991 being the most obvious example), but I suspect there was voter fatigue.

No explanation for 1998. Usually if you have an Art Ross winner who leads the league by 10+ points, and is on a playoff team, he takes the Hart. Jagr finished 2nd in voting; that speaks to how good Hasek was.

2000 is an unusual case. It's one of only two times in the past 50+ years where the Art Ross winner missed a quarter of the season (the other of course being 1993). Pronger, of course, was only the 2nd defenseman over the past 70+ years to win the Hart trophy. It would be very difficult (though probably not impossible) for a flowchart or formula to pick an event that happens so rarely.

 

[MadLuke]

At least it is relatively complicated decision tree with 5 different end result having been "rare", which would indicate that if you continue some year's that it would require to add some new one.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Just want to point out that this table currently has Jonathan Huberdeau winning the Hart this season.

Don't take that a criticism... if anything, the chart does a nice job of illustrating how McDavid and Shesterkin could very well split the vote and open the door for an upset.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Just want to point out that this table currently has Jonathan Huberdeau winning the Hart this season.

Don't take that a criticism... if anything, the chart does a nice job of illustrating how McDavid and Shesterkin could very well split the vote and open the door for an upset.

I could see Huberdeau winning the Hart.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I could see Huberdeau winning the Hart.

In a vacuum he's easily Top 3 in the race this year. But factor in the media love for Barkov and I think he will be disproportionally low in the voting because enough guys will think "shows how good Barkov is"

 

[jigglysquishy]

Before his injury Matthews was the media favourite, but wouldn't have been by this method.

Still a couple games of hockey left, but wouldn't be surprised if McDavid can get to that 6 point gap.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

l

Still a couple games of hockey left, but wouldn't be surprised if McDavid can get to that 6 point gap.

two games left for each guy, seven pt gap

but given the inflation of scoring of this season, should it be a ten pt gap to really be congruent to the 6-7 pt gaps of MSL, cros, and ovechkin in the mid-2000s?

 

[Big Phil]

Yeah looks like Huberdeau according to that chart. I have to say though, I am not entirely sure a playmaking winger who isn't physical and didn't score a ton of goals will get a lot of love from the media, especially a guy playing in Florida. Look, I've seen enough of him all year, he's been great, and he destroyed the LW assists record quite easily. But does the media like him enough? Because to be honest, there are other candidates (McDavid, Matthews) where there is at least just as good of a case.

 

[The Panther]

According to my own brief dive into the stats yesterday on the main board (which, of course, was mocked and trod upon by posters -- mostly Leafs' fans -- because I didn't anoint Matthews as an untouchable God), the best candidates among forwards this season for the Hart are:

1A. Gaudreau
1B. McDavid
3. Matthews

Not that I've watched enough games to have a strong opinion about it, but based on what I know and the rough look at the stats I did, I think if I were voting, I'd vote for Johnny Gaudreau. (Of course, I'd prefer McDavid to win, but I honestly think Gaudreau deserves it a bit more.)

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

I've got Matthews winning right now

 

[Buffalowing1988]

I've got Matthews winning right now

I think Matthews wins and...I am sort of cool with it. I get crushed whenever I tell the ML fans that I think he's a different bracket than Marner. To each their own I suppose.

With that said, @Hockey Outsider just made some really cool and well-researched content and I think we should appreciate that more than anything else. That's the reason this forum is still the best.

 

[The Panther]

Johnny Gaudreau picked up his 90th even-strength point last night. What a season.

Most ES points since 1996-97 (25 years):
90 - Gaudreau 2022
84 - McDavid 2018
83 - H. Sedin 2010

Best Plus/Minus since 1987-88 (34 years):
+65 Gaudreau 2022
+62 Lindholm 2022
+60 Konstantinov 1996

Calgary is at a 112-point pace this season, compared to 81 last season.

How is Gaudreau not the Hart trophy favorite this year???

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

wow florida sitting huberdeau and barkov when hubs still could have made a late monster run at the art ross (hey, forsberg/thornton/henrik sedin/benn did it)

that’s tcb my friends

i’d give him the hart just for having the right priorities

 

[PostBradMalone]

Yeah looks like Huberdeau according to that chart. I have to say though, I am not entirely sure a playmaking winger who isn't physical and didn't score a ton of goals will get a lot of love from the media, especially a guy playing in Florida. Look, I've seen enough of him all year, he's been great, and he destroyed the LW assists record quite easily. But does the media like him enough? Because to be honest, there are other candidates (McDavid, Matthews) where there is at least just as good of a case.

Funny how a couple days changes things. Connor’s terrific performance against Pittsburgh gave him the cushion he needed according to OP’s chart. With Huberdeau done for the year he cannot get within that magic 6 point window of McDavid, so that rules him out. I can’t find anything on Gaudreau’s status for tonight but I’d be really surprised if he played a throwaway makeup game 72 hours before the playoffs begin which would take him out of the running too.

Matthews then is the only a) top five scorer b) without a teammate in the top five (barely) but there’s no way he pulls to within 6 points of McD even if he were to play both Leafs games remaining. A certain group on this board will hate to hear it, but the assured Art Ross winner has this thing on lock according to historical precedent.

 

[seventieslord]

There sure seems to be a concerted effort to buck this flowchart this season, though.

 

[MXD]

... I hope the wrench is thrown in that flowchart and the award giving to the actual best player and MVP, Roman Josi.

 

[Big Phil]

Johnny Gaudreau picked up his 90th even-strength point last night. What a season.

Most ES points since 1996-97 (25 years):
90 - Gaudreau 2022
84 - McDavid 2018
83 - H. Sedin 2010

Best Plus/Minus since 1987-88 (34 years):
+65 Gaudreau 2022
+62 Lindholm 2022
+60 Konstantinov 1996

Calgary is at a 112-point pace this season, compared to 81 last season.

How is Gaudreau not the Hart trophy favorite this year???

A heck of a year for Johnny Hockey, but I think Matthew Tkachuk sort of puts a bit of a wrench in things since he is a teammate so close to Gaudreau points-wise.

Funny how a couple days changes things. Connor’s terrific performance against Pittsburgh gave him the cushion he needed according to OP’s chart. With Huberdeau done for the year he cannot get within that magic 6 point window of McDavid, so that rules him out. I can’t find anything on Gaudreau’s status for tonight but I’d be really surprised if he played a throwaway makeup game 72 hours before the playoffs begin which would take him out of the running too.

Matthews then is the only a) top five scorer b) without a teammate in the top five (barely) but there’s no way he pulls to within 6 points of McD even if he were to play both Leafs games remaining. A certain group on this board will hate to hear it, but the assured Art Ross winner has this thing on lock according to historical precedent.

The west will hate it if Matthews wins it over McDavid, I know that for sure. To be honest, I don't know if there is a whole lot of difference between Marner and Matthews. McDavid didn't runaway with the Art Ross this year though. Up until a few days ago Huberdeau was slightly ahead of him. Draisaitl was pretty near neck and neck with him all season too, at times surpassing him in points. McDavid is the best player in the NHL, but he doesn't have the sort of dominant season that makes it impossible to not pick him. There isn't THAT much of a spread (a la Gretzky, Lemieux) where in a full season he is basically a lock.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Auston Matthews won the Hart trophy, which is contrary to what my (formerly infallible) flowchart predicted. Connor McDavid was the expected winner.

 

[The Panther]

Yeesh, I think this is a Hart win that isn't going to age particularly well. I mean, I'm happy for Leafs' fans because God knows they deserve some award winners, but Matthews receiving the Hart, Pearson, and 1st-team All Star is just.... wrong. Is there really any unbiased hockey observer who would take this season's Matthews over McDavid?

I would have been more satisfied if Gaudreau had won the Hart, to be honest.

(Also -- and I don't mean this to sound snarky, though it will -- but can someone in the Leaf's org please get Matthews a personal stylist? When you're already looking like John Holmes at his age, it's worrying.)

 

[Matsun]

Yeesh, I think this is a Hart win that isn't going to age particularly well. I mean, I'm happy for Leafs' fans because God knows they deserve some award winners, but Matthews receiving the Hart, Pearson, and 1st-team All Star is just.... wrong. Is there really any unbiased hockey observer who would take this season's Matthews over McDavid?

I would have been more satisfied if Gaudreau had won the Hart, to be honest.

(Also -- and I don't mean this to sound snarky, though it will -- but can someone in the Leaf's org please get Matthews a personal stylist? When you're already looking like John Holmes at his age, it's worrying.)

I think alot of people started to compare McDavid to himself and were probably left disappointed after what he showed last year. We were expecting him to hit 135-150 points but that did not happen and instead it seemed like other players had gained on him. This was ofcourse disproven in the playoffs but these awards are based on the regular season only. It's wrong to compare players to themself instead of their competition but it always ends up happening to the greatest and if McDavid and Matthews both were 3rd year players then I think McDavid wins this year.

 

[yada]

The funny thing to me about mcdavid is he finished 2 in the mvp race yet nobody talked about him actually winning the award. Even tho all teams have a losing streak mcdavids real chances went out the window when edmonton was losong resulting in tippets firing. I wonder how the voting ends had matthews ended the season with 59 goals, im guessing that magic number swayed some voting.

Having watched the rangers my vote would have been shesterkin because early on the rangers were certainly not great and were propped up by shesterkins numbers. In the playoff rounds against carolina and tampa bay you saw a lot of what the rangers first 3 months looked like. The media certainly wasnt paying attention to him as a winner. Elliott friedman was interviewed about a week before the season ended and he had matthews, mcdavid, and i think guedreau as his top 3 (mcdavid and matthews were for sure it was the third player I forget) he didnt even think of shesterkin or josi

Now despite how I would have voted i have zero issue with matthews, mcdavid, or even if josi would have won the hart. So many great seasons. What im surprised about is how josi and huberdreau finished so low. Its funny that if josi scores 5 more points he probably finishes top 3 in the hart race even if those points didnt affect the standings.

I think id like to see a return of votes being done in both the first half of the season and end of season voting. It drives me nuts that basically 2 players have seasons that can be great but the player with the sexier last week wins the award.

 

[Busher]

Auston Matthews won the Hart trophy, which is contrary to what my (formerly infallible) flowchart predicted. Connor McDavid was the expected winner.

As I mentioned earlier, this year was one of those exceptions where Matthews had enough going for him to be the worthy Hart winner. The 50 in 50, the .80 GPG, the defense, the team play. First to score goals at rates since Lemieux in 1996. He sealed it the moment he scored his 60th.

It’s hard to win the Hart when you only play 73 games, and it will be hard going forward too, but this year was a great exception. Joins only Gretzky and Lemieux as forwards since an 80 game schedule was introduced.