Boston Bruins Predict the Lineup & Lines discussion

[The don godfather]

A lot of Montgomery blame going around. I guess there needs to be a scape goat.

Up 3-1 in the series
Game 5- tied going into the 3rd
Game 6- 3rd period lead and lost
Game 7- 3rd period lead and lost

Players had so many late game chances to finish the series while tied or leading in the 3rd.

Players had an all time choke

Epic failure and collapse probably in all of sports.

 

[NDiesel]

Debrusk has never scored 30. He averages 67gp 20g and 19a over an 82 game season. Marchand is close, but at 35 he’s trending towards a 2nd line player and had 21 goals last year.

Sure it sounds much better if you claim Debrusk is a 30 goal scorer despite him never doing it and those years likely being behind marchand.

But sure if you would like a comparable we can say either hagel or killorn with 30 and 27 goals. Though if you want to say hagel is first line for them we will just stick with killorn

Nichushkin and landeskog when healthy are 2nd line players that put up similar numbers.

You want me to keep going because I can…

Firstly, I said Debrusk scored CLOSE TO 30....never said he hit 30

Second, you just chose two elite teams and picked their 2nd line, which doesn't really strengthen your point that they're 2nd liners...even in doing so:

Nichushkin had less points than both guys, then you mention Marchand is getting older but decide to use Landeskog as an example who is going on his second straight year of not playing hockey? Who even knows what he is at this point.

Hagel spent most of his time on line 1 with Point and Kucherov.

You can have Killorn if you want, although playing with a guy like Stamkos is not typical to any 2nd line...very similar to Zacha playing with Pastrnak on the "2nd line", obviously their totals are inflated a bit.

The problem here is 2nd liner is such a vague definition. By point total they arent really 2nd line guys anywhere outside of maybe 5 or 6 teams IMO.

 

[slim399]

Marchand-Coyle-Debrusk
Zacha-Merkulov-Pastrnak
JVR-Frederic-Geekie
Lucic-McLaughlin-Lauko
Boqvist

Gryz-McAvoy
Lindholm-Carlo
Forbort-Shattenkirk
Zboril-Mitchell

Goalie Hugs

 

[Dr Quincy]

I call BS. The guy put up 28 pts in 69 games playing 4th line. That's pretty dam good for a 4th liner. By comparison Nosek 18 pts in 66 on a record setting team.

Geekie went to arbitration with Seattle the previous season. Was probably lining up to go again. Seattle has more C depth than they can use. They couldn't find a taker so they let him go.

When you start with he had great puck luck @ 12.4 how is that great puck luck?
The guy is a career 10.4 . How is an 4th liner who puts up his numbers an anchor ?

If his time disappeared in the PO's that's a coaches decision. I remember Monty making similar choices , doesn't mean they are right.



100%. Like many others , I wasn't at all impressed with his coaching in the PO's. I'd go as far as blaming him for the 1st line exit. He'll have to do better, much better.

I won't get into the sheltered usage because I don't know if that's true or not.

When people talk about "luck" they are usually using stats like CF%, xGF% and PDO.

Geekie was a bit lucky with the number of goals his usual line scored compared to what was "expected".

His most common linemate was Daniel Sprong. When on the ice together at 5 on 5 they scored 24 goals and allowed 13. The on ice shooting % when they were together was 14.29. When apart, Geekie's OISH% was 10.56.

If you look at things like CF, FF and xG... they simply scored more goals and allowed less than a line usually would with the number of shots taken compared to shots allowed. They were slightly "out corsi'd", while they slightly out fenwicked and out shot the opposition. But their "expected goals" was only 15 while they scored 25.

This is what the author is talking about as far as luck. Over the long haul, players/lines/teams that are performing above or below "expected" will regress to the mean. There are players who consistently outperform the expected numbers because of some unique skill. It's possible Geekie has that and will continue to outperform what's expected.

But technically speaking, it wouldn't be surprising if he actually doesn't perform at the same rate of pts per minute as last year. In fact, it would be "expected". That doesn't mean he won't be a good player. But I see his ceiling as a 3C and people putting him on the 2nd line are going to be disappointed.

I'd expect Sprong's numbers to go down this year too.

 

[UncleRico]

Firstly, I said Debrusk scored CLOSE TO 30....never said he hit 30

Second, you just chose two elite teams and picked their 2nd line, which doesn't really strengthen your point that they're 2nd liners...even in doing so:

Nichushkin had less points than both guys, then you mention Marchand is getting older but decide to use Landeskog as an example who is going on his second straight year of not playing hockey? Who even knows what he is at this point.

Hagel spent most of his time on line 1 with Point and Kucherov.

You can have Killorn if you want, although playing with a guy like Stamkos is not typical to any 2nd line...very similar to Zacha playing with Pastrnak on the "2nd line", obviously their totals are inflated a bit.

The problem here is 2nd liner is such a vague definition. By point total they arent really 2nd line guys anywhere outside of maybe 5 or 6 teams IMO.

Oh so because I picked players on other playoff teams that means it doesn’t count?

You asked for similar guys with point production. Nichushkin has 5 more points than Debrusk the last two years. Both have missed a lot of games. Killorn has just had similar production as well.

Then there’s bunting, Wyatt johnson, reilly smith, zucker

All these guys have put up similar production to what you are asking about.

2nd line forwards it’s pretty common to have mid 20 goals and around 50 points. That’s exactly what Debrusk did.

 

[goldnblack]

Lysell time is now let's go!

Just as the board finally got their heads around no big savior trades coming to bring us top end C's, soon too will it get used to the idea that this young man is not stepping into the lineup this year as a regular player.

2024-2025 will be the great spending spree, the great goalie promotion, and the great prospect jump.

Till then, y'all best get used to something a little less sexy.

 

[NDiesel]

Oh so because I picked players on other playoff teams that means it doesn’t count?

You asked for similar guys with point production. Nichushkin has 5 more points than Debrusk the last two years. Both have missed a lot of games. Killorn has just had similar production as well.

Then there’s bunting, Wyatt johnson, reilly smith, zucker

All these guys have put up similar production to what you are asking about.

2nd line forwards it’s pretty common to have mid 20 goals and around 50 points. That’s exactly what Debrusk did.

I'm not quite sure what to say if you think Marchand is comparable with those list of names, Debrusk included.

I'll give you Debrusk being a 2nd liner based on his production, I just think healthy for a full season he would set himself apart from those names, but no way to tell until he does it.

 

[PlayMakers]

So two top 6 lines, but neither of those lines are suitable #1 lines.

JVR-Zacha-Pasta isn’t a #1 line if it features a 3rd line LW and a 2nd line center.

Then Marchand-Coyle-Debrusk also isn’t a #1 line with a 3rd line center and probably at this point 2nd line wingers.

Yeah it's one of those pick your poison things. Two top6 lines where neither one is a dominant 1st line, or one first line and three 3rd lines. I'm not a fan of one-line teams, I think they're too easy to play against. Plus, there's a chance that one of our top6 lines could click and play like a real 1st line. Maybe Marchand elevates Coyle to a 2nd line level player. Maybe Pasta elevates JVR... but at worst you've got two solid 2nd lines and can manage their matchups.

 

[JOKER 192]

I won't get into the sheltered usage because I don't know if that's true or not.

When people talk about "luck" they are usually using stats like CF%, xGF% and PDO.

Geekie was a bit lucky with the number of goals his usual line scored compared to what was "expected".

His most common linemate was Daniel Sprong. When on the ice together at 5 on 5 they scored 24 goals and allowed 13. The on ice shooting % when they were together was 14.29. When apart, Geekie's OISH% was 10.56.

If you look at things like CF, FF and xG... they simply scored more goals and allowed less than a line usually would with the number of shots taken compared to shots allowed. They were slightly "out corsi'd", while they slightly out fenwicked and out shot the opposition. But their "expected goals" was only 15 while they scored 25.

This is what the author is talking about as far as luck. Over the long haul, players/lines/teams that are performing above or below "expected" will regress to the mean. There are players who consistently outperform the expected numbers because of some unique skill. It's possible Geekie has that and will continue to outperform what's expected.

But technically speaking, it wouldn't be surprising if he actually doesn't perform at the same rate of pts per minute as last year. In fact, it would be "expected". That doesn't mean he won't be a good player. But I see his ceiling as a 3C and people putting him on the 2nd line are going to be disappointed.

I'd expect Sprong's numbers to go down this year too.

Thanks, very well explained.

1st of all I have no time for extended analytics.

Finally the argument is that he out preformed expectations? I don't even have a second for an argument like that.

 

[JOKER 192]

I was just posting what a magazine said, kinda trying to offer the other side as I was getting on the Geekie train, mostly out of pure desperation.

Ya cool, but if I'm gonna offer up a different perspective, that's not the one I'm offering.

 

[UncleRico]

Yeah it's one of those pick your poison things. Two top6 lines where neither one is a dominant 1st line, or one first line and three 3rd lines. I'm not a fan of one-line teams, I think they're too easy to play against. Plus, there's a chance that one of our top6 lines could click and play like a real 1st line. Maybe Marchand elevates Coyle to a 2nd line level player. Maybe Pasta elevates JVR... but at worst you've got two solid 2nd lines and can manage their matchups.

Two top6 lines is a nice way to say they really have two 2nd lines right now. Mostly due to their center position.

However I’m not even really sure a line that could potentially feature Coyle and jvr is a top 6 line.

Thank god this defense is elite and the bruins have an elite goaltending tandem(at least in the regular season). Because that entire forward group is going to struggle.

 

[shelbysdad]

Marchand-Coyle-Debrusk
Zacha-Merkulov-Pastrnak
JVR-Frederic-Geekie
Lucic-McLaughlin-Lauko
Boqvist

Gryz-McAvoy
Lindholm-Carlo
Forbort-Shattenkirk
Zboril-Mitchell

Goalie Hugs

close to what I am thinking....

Marchand-Zacha-Debrusk
Frederick-Merkulov-Pastrnak
JVR-Coyle-Geekie
Lucic-McLaughlin-Lauko
Boqvist

 

[bb74]

Yeah it's one of those pick your poison things. Two top6 lines where neither one is a dominant 1st line, or one first line and three 3rd lines. I'm not a fan of one-line teams, I think they're too easy to play against. Plus, there's a chance that one of our top6 lines could click and play like a real 1st line. Maybe Marchand elevates Coyle to a 2nd line level player. Maybe Pasta elevates JVR... but at worst you've got two solid 2nd lines and can manage their matchups.

Or 2 middle 6 lines... I think that is the underlying concern here.... a watering down of the potential depth with 2 middle 6 and 2 4th lines as we have seen on repeated occasion on the B' since the mid 70's all the while show-boating top 10 NHL players as a teaser to what "could be" if they had that extra depth/gear...

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

According to Steve Conroy's interview with Jim Montgomery, here's what to expect up front (at least in the short-term):

Marchand - Coyle - DeBrusk
van-Riemsdyk - Zacha - Pastrnak
xxx - Geekie - Frederic
Lucic - xxx - (Very Possibly) Chiasson

Leaving room for 2 to 4 of:
Beecher, Brown, Boqvist, Farinacci, Greer, Lauko, Lysell, McLaughlin, Megna, Poitras, Richard and Steen.


Montgomery also revealed that Jon Gruden's coaching responsibilities will be divided up between Joe Sacco and Chris Kelly. Sacco will handle the defense, while Chirs Kelly will be in charge of the powerplay.

"With Montgomery preferring a three-man bench, the new hire will be a second eye-in-the-sky with goalie coach Bob Essensa. The new coach will also focus on in-season development work."

Jim Montgomery still bullish on the Bruins

Bruins coach Jim Montgomery gives some of his insights on the upcoming challenges for the upcoming season.

www.bostonherald.com

 

[DKH]

DeBrusk-Zacha-Pastrnak

Marchand - Coyle - Frederic

???? - Merkulov- Geekie

What I would like to see

 

[Patdud]

Probably end up with this on opening night based on comments

JVR - Zacha - Pastrnak
Marchand - Coyle - DeBrusk
Boqvist - Geekie - Frederic
Lucic - Brown - Lauko

Gryzelyck - McAvoy
Lindholm - Carlo
Forbort - Shattenkirk

Ullmark
Swayman

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Probably end up with this on opening night based on comments

JVR - Zacha - Pastrnak
Marchand - Coyle - DeBrusk
Boqvist - Geekie - Frederic
Lucic - Brown - Lauko

Gryzelyck - McAvoy
Lindholm - Carlo
Forbort - Shattenkirk

Ullmark
Swayman

I wouldn’t treat Monty’s comments in August as any kind of gospel. He’s not going to give out jobs now.

 

[wintersej]

DeBrusk-Zacha-Pastrnak

Marchand - Coyle - Frederic

???? - Merkulov- Geekie

What I would like to see

I like the Marchand Coyle Frederic line but just wish there was a center to pair with DeBrusk instead of putting him up with Zacha and Pasta. Throw Geekie, Merkulov or Lysell on the other wing of DeBrusk. A man can dream.

 

[HustleB]

DeBrusk-Zacha-Pastrnak

Marchand - Coyle - Frederic

???? - Merkulov- Geekie

What I would like to see

I like Frederic in the top 6 a lot more than JVR. Looking forward to a competitive camp. Not just for 13th forward but also for minutes and opportunities. I hope Frederic up’s the ante and has a great camp. Not just him but all these young guys have to smell it.

 

[Dizzay]

JVR-Zacha-Pasta
Marchand-Coyle-Debrusk
Lucic-Geekie-Frederic
Boqvist-Beecher-Lauko
Greer

Gryz-McAvoy
Lindholm-Carlo
Forbort-Shattenkirk
Zboril

Ully-Swayman

 

[Hookslide]

close to what I am thinking....

Marchand-Zacha-Debrusk
Frederick-Merkulov-Pastrnak
JVR-Coyle-Geekie
Lucic-McLaughlin-Lauko
Boqvist

Please don't take offense , but did you pull a Billy Martin and pull that lineup out of a hat ?

 

[Kegs]

Please don't take offense , but did you pull a Billy Martin and pull that lineup out of a hat ?

What’s wrong with it? Seems like a fair guess. I don’t like McLaughlin myself. But a lot of the posters around here are very high on him.

 

[Son of Donegal]

Marchard - Coyle - JDB
Lauko - Zacha - Pastrnak
JVR - Geekie - Freddy
Lucic - Boqvist - Brown (taking most draws)
Greer

Until I see JVR in the mix...I don't want him in the top 6. As for Lauko, I like his hunger, speed and willingness to stir things up. Someone to draw attention away from Zacha and Pasta.

I almost went with Lucic - Brown - Greer, but...I think the B's will need more speed and mobility from a modern 4th line.

 

[wintersej]

I like Frederic in the top 6 a lot more than JVR. Looking forward to a competitive camp. Not just for 13th forward but also for minutes and opportunities. I hope Frederic up’s the ante and has a great camp. Not just him but all these young guys have to smell it.

The con here is that you now have Marchand on your matchup/shutdown line and you NEED to get scoring out of that Geekie line. Do you trust JVR Geekie Merkulov to do that?

 

[quietbruinfan]

Montgomery should separate Pasta and JVR. He will find out quickly that it will not work.