Pre-Lottery Mock Drafts

[Michoulicious]

I remember seeing something about the NFL, where statistically, players who get drafted way after the media consensus tend to be busts/disappoint, and players who get drafted way above the media consensus also tend to disappoint and be busts.

Takes 1 team to reach, and it could likely be a bad pick, but on the other hand if a bunch of front offices are passing on a guy compared to what the media consensus is, they have all likely seen/spotted something the media hasn't.

I imagine the same applies at the NHL level.

Probably... But then there are guys like Barzal that fall and end-up becoming stars.

Tough to say.

 

[dgibb10]

Probably... But then there are guys like Barzal that fall and end-up becoming stars.

Tough to say.

It's probably less true in the NHL than NFL for a number of reasons:

-NFL drafts older players
-Easier to compare competition since all are basically in the same league
-Vastly more resources available to NFL teams
-A number of NHL teams still haven't really gotten with the times in terms of analytics and data until very recently

But I expect it to still hold true in the NHL, although that's not to say every player who is a "reach" will be a bust, or that every player who falls will be a bust

 

[coooldude]

Again. Im talking about his decision making with the puck specifically. I saw lot of just simple or even mistakely simple moves. In KHL and in MHL. I his puck management is a thing why he wasnt as productive on MHL level before and this year. So what is working on his levels, could not work as well on NHL level. So thats a reason im temper my expactations.

This is what I see with Silayev on every viewing as well. He's so mobile and huge, that's very exciting. But he gets completely locked in on his first read with the puck. Sometimes that first read is good, sometimes bad, but he rarely flexes to his second or third reads. Maybe it's a confidence thing, maybe it can be taught, but he doesn't have it today.

14. SJS: Catton
15. DET: Yakemchuk

I don't think SJ takes another mid-sized playmaking center... we already have Eklund and Smith. Yakemchuk if available makes a ton more sense.

13. MIN: Sennecke
14. SJS: Catton
15. DET: Brandsegg-Nygard
16. STL: Jiricek

Similarly, if Yak and Sennecke are off the board, I don't think we take Catton even if he's super exciting because Eklund profiles very similarly and Smith plays a bit like both of them.

In this scenario I've seen Chernyshov mocked to us, and that makes sense, or maybe they jump for Jiricek, or maybe MBN to be Smith's "Leonard". I know it would make some people lose their minds to pass on Catton for Chernyshov, Jiricek, or MBN, but I am just guessing that's what Grier would do given he's looking for grit, size, speed, and our D pipeline is thin.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Similarly, if Yak and Sennecke are off the board, I don't think we take Catton even if he's super exciting because Eklund profiles very similarly and Smith plays a bit like both of them.

In this scenario I've seen Chernyshov mocked to us, and that makes sense, or maybe they jump for Jiricek, or maybe MBN to be Smith's "Leonard". I know it would make some people lose their minds to pass on Catton for Chernyshov, Jiricek, or MBN, but I am just guessing that's what Grier would do given he's looking for grit, size, speed, and our D pipeline is thin.

I think the Sharks should trade up to 10-12 and get one of the top-7 defenders from this class. There's a couple picks that don't really fit but just trying to work within the pre-lottery parameters. Eiserman at 4 is another one I don't really like, but who else when they need a F.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don't think SJ takes another mid-sized playmaking center... we already have Eklund and Smith. Yakemchuk if available makes a ton more sense.


Similarly, if Yak and Sennecke are off the board, I don't think we take Catton even if he's super exciting because Eklund profiles very similarly and Smith plays a bit like both of them.

In this scenario I've seen Chernyshov mocked to us, and that makes sense, or maybe they jump for Jiricek, or maybe MBN to be Smith's "Leonard". I know it would make some people lose their minds to pass on Catton for Chernyshov, Jiricek, or MBN, but I am just guessing that's what Grier would do given he's looking for grit, size, speed, and our D pipeline is thin.

I agree I’d take Yakemchuk over Catton for the Sharks if we won the Celebrini pick, but if the only other guys available are a tier below him then you just go BPA. Take Catton, let him dominate the WHL for another year, then use him as a trade chip for a young defenseman. If we didn’t win Celebrini and our first pick was Levshunov/Buium, then just take Catton. It’s not like we have any real top-6 C prospects outside of Smith. I know Smith and Catton isn’t exactly the ideal 1-2 center punch, but that’s better than drafting a hard-nosed 2nd line winger and not having a 2C at all.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

I agree I’d take Yakemchuk over Catton for the Sharks if we won the Celebrini pick, but if the only other guys available are a tier below him then you just go BPA. Take Catton, let him dominate the WHL for another year, then use him as a trade chip for a young defenseman. If we didn’t win Celebrini and our first pick was Levshunov/Buium, then just take Catton. It’s not like we have any real top-6 C prospects outside of Smith. I know Smith and Catton isn’t exactly the ideal 1-2 center punch, but that’s better than drafting a hard-nosed 2nd line winger and not having a 2C at all.

I think it would be fun for the Sharks to have a wave of forward prospects to follow, Celebrini, Smith, and Catton all incoming the next 1-2 years

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think it would be fun for the Sharks to have a wave of forward prospects to follow, Celebrini, Smith, and Catton all incoming the next 1-2 years

If we added Celebrini and Catton to what we already have in Eklund, Zetterlund, Smith, Musty, Bystedt, Edstrom, Bordeleau, Gushchin, Graf, Halttunen… yeah, we’d be pretty set at forward. It’d be an absolute wasteland on D, but boy would it be fun. And we can always spend our 33rd and 42nd overall picks this year on D.

The Sharks are nowhere near lucky enough for that to happen, but it’s fun to think about.

 

[Xirik]

I think the Sharks should trade up to 10-12 and get one of the top-7 defenders from this class. There's a couple picks that don't really fit but just trying to work within the pre-lottery parameters. Eiserman at 4 is another one I don't really like, but who else when they need a F.

If the Sharks want to trade Mukhamadullin for 10th OV I'm sure the Devils would be interested.

 

[coooldude]

I agree I’d take Yakemchuk over Catton for the Sharks if we won the Celebrini pick, but if the only other guys available are a tier below him then you just go BPA. Take Catton, let him dominate the WHL for another year, then use him as a trade chip for a young defenseman. If we didn’t win Celebrini and our first pick was Levshunov/Buium, then just take Catton. It’s not like we have any real top-6 C prospects outside of Smith. I know Smith and Catton isn’t exactly the ideal 1-2 center punch, but that’s better than drafting a hard-nosed 2nd line winger and not having a 2C at all.

It's definitely a good point. If they evaluate Catton in a clear tier above and he falls to us, and there's no D available, you take him and can use him as a chip (or he kicks ass and becomes a critical piece).

Obviously HFB would evaluate Catton above MBN, Jiricek, Chernyshov, and Sennecke. I'm not sure where the Sharks / other pro orgs would evaluate him.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It's definitely a good point. If they evaluate Catton in a clear tier above and he falls to us, and there's no D available, you take him and can use him as a chip (or he kicks ass and becomes a critical piece).

Obviously HFB would evaluate Catton above MBN, Jiricek, Chernyshov, and Sennecke. I'm not sure where the Sharks / othe pro orgs would evaluate him.

I definitely don’t see Catton as a strictly-Grier type of player, but then again, neither was Smith. That is to say, it wouldn’t shock me if we passed on Catton for one of the bigger but lower upside guys that you mentioned, but I would be very disappointed.

I get taking for positional need when all-else is basically equal, but Catton is in my 5-6 range and I’d sprint to the stage if he were there at 14 (the same way I felt when Benson fell last year). Yakemchuk would be the only guy I see consistently ranked lower than Catton whom I think has higher upside than Catton.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

If we added Celebrini and Catton to what we already have in Eklund, Zetterlund, Smith, Musty, Bystedt, Edstrom, Bordeleau, Gushchin, Graf, Halttunen… yeah, we’d be pretty set at forward. It’d be an absolute wasteland on D, but boy would it be fun. And we can always spend our 33rd and 42nd overall picks this year on D.

The Sharks are nowhere near lucky enough for that to happen, but it’s fun to think about.

Just figure out what dmen anahiem has circled at 35 and boston pick and grab those guys

 

[Juxtaposer]

Just figure out what dmen anahiem has circled at 35 and boston pick and grab those guys

No joke….

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

No joke….

That being said I’d be shocked if you don’t grab a dmen at Pitt pick…. Specially if you land celebrini

 

[Xirik]

It's definitely a good point. If they evaluate Catton in a clear tier above and he falls to us, and there's no D available, you take him and can use him as a chip (or he kicks ass and becomes a critical piece).

Obviously HFB would evaluate Catton above MBN, Jiricek, Chernyshov, and Sennecke. I'm not sure where the Sharks / other pro orgs would evaluate him.

Scouts and prospect "rankers" Aren't that great about knowing talent coming from the MHL. He's definitely the most underrated player of the draft class. I wouldn't be mad if the Devils took him at 10.

 

[Grinner]

That being said I’d be shocked if you don’t grab a dmen at Pitt pick…. Specially if you land celebrini

Why? Their's also a gapping hole of top 6 RW talent in our pool of prospects.
Where its presenty sitting, Pitts pick hits a real sweet spot for that position

 

[Guadana]

This is what I see with Silayev on every viewing as well. He's so mobile and huge, that's very exciting. But he gets completely locked in on his first read with the puck. Sometimes that first read is good, sometimes bad, but he rarely flexes to his second or third reads. Maybe it's a confidence thing, maybe it can be taught, but he doesn't have it today.


I don't think SJ takes another mid-sized playmaking center... we already have Eklund and Smith. Yakemchuk if available makes a ton more sense.


Similarly, if Yak and Sennecke are off the board, I don't think we take Catton even if he's super exciting because Eklund profiles very similarly and Smith plays a bit like both of them.

In this scenario I've seen Chernyshov mocked to us, and that makes sense, or maybe they jump for Jiricek, or maybe MBN to be Smith's "Leonard". I know it would make some people lose their minds to pass on Catton for Chernyshov, Jiricek, or MBN, but I am just guessing that's what Grier would do given he's looking for grit, size, speed, and our D pipeline is thin.

With Smith I would easily jump on Nygard or Chernyshov over Catton. Sometimes its better to have interior forward with good defensive game and skill over another playmaker. Both Chernyshov and Nygard are very good skaters and much better physically. Chernyshov is even better puckhandler. I don't see any problem to draft them over Catton with Smith and Celebrini on the board. I woukd prefer to draft them over Catton.

 

[Juxtaposer]

That being said I’d be shocked if you don’t grab a dmen at Pitt pick…. Specially if you land celebrini

That would be ideal, but frankly I think the BPA at 14 is unlikely to be a defenseman unless the team really believes in Jiricek. I think the consensus top six defensemen will all go top-10.

Obviously the ideal draft for the Sharks would go (1) Celebrini, (14) Yakemchuk/Parekh/Silayev, (33) Elick/Badinka/Emery, (42) Hutson/Kiviharju/Mews. But I think the D will be taken a little too early because literally everyone needs good defensemen. Most likely the BPA at 14 is a winger like Brandsegg-Nygard or Chernyshov or Sennecke, in which case you just take the guy you like best.

The good bad thing about the Sharks is that we basically need high end talent everywhere but LW, where we have Eklund and Musty. We can afford to go BPA at every pick, though after Smith/Musty/Halttunen as our high picks last year I definitely expect some defensemen.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

That would be ideal, but frankly I think the BPA at 14 is unlikely to be a defenseman unless the team really believes in Jiricek. I think the consensus top six defensemen will all go top-10.

Obviously the ideal draft for the Sharks would go (1) Celebrini, (14) Yakemchuk/Parekh/Silayev, (33) Elick/Badinka/Emery, (42) Hutson/Kiviharju/Mews. But I think the D will be taken a little too early because literally everyone needs good defensemen. Most likely the BPA at 14 is a winger like Brandsegg-Nygard or Chernyshov or Sennecke, in which case you just take the guy you like best.

The good bad thing about the Sharks is that we basically need high end talent everywhere but LW, where we have Eklund and Musty. We can afford to go BPA at every pick, though after Smith/Musty/Halttunen as our high picks last year I definitely expect some defensemen.

True, and you prob have another draft or 2 near the bottom before you start trending upwards…. So there is time to fill out the defense

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

I like Helenius to the Devils at 10, they can run Hughes, Hischier, Helenius, Haula down the middle crazy H's

 

[majormajor]

Like I said before, Demidov the has trifecta of characteristics that make players fall on draft day.

1) Smaller winger
2) Not the fastest skater
3) Russian

Certainly some will see it that way - Pronman compared him to Jeff Skinner, a classic very small player.

But Demidov is actually very tough and strong on his edges, much closer to NHL average size than he is to a Jeff Skinner type. Very rangy too with a long reach. He forechecks well. Only one year left under contract in Russia.

There are some concerns but it is not even one quarter as sketchy as the Michkov situation - where you have a very small player who is very slow, under contract for years in Russia, telling teams not to draft him, etc... etc.... I really could go on.

 

[Doublechin]

1. Sharks: Celebrini
2. Blackhawks: Levshunov
3. Ducks: Demidov
4. Blue Jackets: Buium
5. Canadiens: Lindstrom
6. Coyotes: Yakemchuk
7. Senators: Helenius
8. Kraken: Dickinson
9. Flames: Iginla
10. Devils: Silayev
11. Sabres: Parekh
12. Flyers: Eiserman
13. Wild: Catton
14. Sharks: Sennecke
15. Red Wings: Bransegg-Nygard
16. Blues: Greentree

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

1. SJS: Celebrini
2. CHI: Demidov
3. ANA: Levshunov
4. CBJ: Silayev
5. MTL: Lindstrom
6. Utah: Iginla
7. OTT: Parekh
8. SEA: Buuim
9. CGY: Dickinson
10. NJD: Eiserman
11. BUF: Catton
12. PHI: Helenius
13. MIN: Yakemchuk
14. SJS: Jiricek
15. DET: Greentree
16. STL: Brandsegg-Nygard

 

[Xirik]

1. SJS: Celebrini
2. CHI: Demidov
3. ANA: Levshunov
4. CBJ: Silayev
5. MTL: Lindstrom
6. Utah: Iginla
7. OTT: Parekh
8. SEA: Buuim
9. CGY: Dickinson
10. NJD: Eiserman
11. BUF: Catton
12. PHI: Helenius
13. MIN: Yakemchuk
14. SJS: Jiricek
15. DET: Greentree
16. STL: Brandsegg-Nygard

I would want the Devils GM fired if he picked Eiserman.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

I would want the Devils GM fired if he picked Eiserman.

That doesn’t seem extreme at all.

 

[Xirik]

That doesn’t seem extreme at all.

He drafted Holtz who had a good shot but lots of warts and tried to turn him into a two way forward. Drafting Holtz 2.0 instead of going for a more two way player to begin with seems stupid.