Good list. IMO McConnell-Barker has been playing like someone who should go in round 1. I'd also move Ludwinski up somewhere. Sergei Ivanov has been average/disappointing so far, and would go down to HM or lower (like a 4th/5th round) for me. I'm curious what makes you put McGroarty ahead of Geekie, and why Slafkovsky is so low?
You may be right about those two OHL kids. I'm still very conservative with placing the OHL guys because we lost a full season. It's only a few months into their first season of junior hockey, so I can't say that I have strong opinions yet. I try not to throw hot-takes out there about players that I don't know as much about. I will know their games better as the season goes on, which will lead to changes in my list.
As to McGroarty ahead of Geekie, I'm not really looking at it as comparing the two players when making my list. I guess I see some similarities as bigger forwards with pretty complete skillsets, but not amazing skating. And they both project to play center, although McGroarty hasn't played the position yet at the NTDP.
If I was to compare the main reason why McGroarty is 6 slots higher, I see higher upside in his game because I think his scoring potential is extremely high. Outside of my top 3 forwards, he's the player in this draft that I could see hitting 100 points, if he hits his ceiling. I've compared his scoring upside before to Drasaitl, and it seems silly to say he'll be as good as a player that is a lock to be a HOF'er. However, I think his upside is extremely high due to how good I think the different aspects of his scoring potential are (passing, shot, sense, size, stick-stills).
I see Geekie as a player who probably projects as a second line center with 1B center potential. I know some like to compare Geekie to Dach, and I would say that for Geekie to be higher on my list than McGroarty he'd have to project at the same level as Dach, which I think he falls short of. Dach's control of the game offensively is better, and I think his skating/size is also a little better.
See the below post for my thoughts on Slafkovsky
Good list. A lot of Swedish players from the HGC in top 64, and only 3 slovaks. Sweden must have easily won that game against Slovakia in dominating fashion than!
I think a number of those Swedes are late 2003's, so they wouldn't have been at that tournament. From the Swedes at that tournament, I moved down a few players, and moved up a few players. I wouldn't say I'm overly positive about the Swedes. Seems like an average crop for them without any top talents, but maybe some good depth.
As to the Slovaks, I moved Nemec up I think 16 spots, which is among the most of any players. I'm not sure I'm low on him anymore, maybe a little, but nothing substantial. Mesar moved up 10 spots from the prior list. There's never really a huge difference on these lists between 25-45, so I could certainly see him move up or down as the season goes on, but I have him 1 slot outside of round 1. Thats pretty good. Slafkovsky is the player I'm a little concerned about. His start to the season hasn't been too great. I see the puck skills, size, puck protection, scoring ability, but I think his defensive game needs work, as does his skating. I think he has some of the higher upside among the players outside of the top 15 on my list, but he hasn't really had a great start to the season in Liiga. I'm trying to balance his performance at the Hlinka with his start to the season. I think he's actually in the exact same slot as what I had before the Hlinka.
I'm not sure which other Slovaks are top 64 contenders at this time. I think I was rather generous to Elias to keep him as a third rounder due to his weaker start. I like his game though, so maybe he will improve and move up his list. 2nd round for a goalie is tough, but I guess it's possible if he has a very good season. Kmec moved up from my preseason list. I didn't elevate any players I didn't have on my prior list into the first round, and very few into the second round. If he continues to play as well as he has, second round certainly is possible. Petrovsky also moved into the next group of players I considered for my list, although he didn't make my list. Third round, maybe late 2nd, is a possibility. And then that could be six Slovaks in the first 3 rounds. That might be more than the Czech's, and probably any other country other than the big five nations. When was the last time that happened for Slovakia? I think that'd be a great start to regaining their status in international hockey. 2023 should also be a good draft for Slovakia.
Chesley over Jiricek? Whats your reasoning?
As I mentioned above, I don't look at these lists as putting players at the same position in competition for specific slots, so that wasn't my reasoning for where they are listed.
However, I would say the main areas where I think Chesley projects better are how he controls the game, and the pace he plays at. It's all very quick. Makes defensive plays, gets the puck up the ice, and looks to contribute into the attack. It's an up and down game. Jiricek has some nice tools, but I still see his game as a little raw. He's pretty good defensively, skates well for a player his size, has a good shot, but I'm still trying to figure out how good his hockey sense/puck skills are. Part of that is due to being a bigger defenseman, and those guys often take longer to figure out their projections. Is he Erik Cernak or is he what most expect Moritz Seider to be? Being the former wouldn't be a bad outcome, but I still see some variability in Jiricek's projection. I think what Chesley brings is very stable. Probably his worst case outcome is like a Jacob Trouba, and he may be a McAvoy.