Post-Lottery 2018 Mock Draft, Devils-centric

[Nubmer6]

Ohhhhh man would that be amazing. That kid is just unbelievable. Although my top two D are securely 1)Dahlin & 2)Hughes, the next group for me are very close with Smith, Boqvist, Bouchard, Dobson, Wilde and Miller. I think right now I would give Smith the slight edge in that group -- he's an incredible skater, he's extremely smart and competitive, he plays two ways, his vision/passing skills are tremendous. The only knocks on him are size related (5'10-180). In my mind, Smith is a future NHL all-star at the Devils' position of greatest need (LD).

If you give Smith only a slight edge in that group, would it be worth it to trade up? I mean, we probably have a shot at Wilde or Miller. What would you give up to get Smith instead? Is there any chance we trade up with Edmonton, who's reportedly shopping their #10, and would it be worth the cost?

 

[StevenToddIves]

If you give Smith only a slight edge in that group, would it be worth it to trade up? I mean, we probably have a shot at Wilde or Miller. What would you give up to get Smith instead? Is there any chance we trade up with Edmonton, who's reportedly shopping their #10, and would it be worth the cost?

Any trade with Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli usually ends up being a good trade for the team trading with Chiarelli.

That being said, I think the Oilers want to use the #10 pick to get either a top-3 D or a winger who can play with McDavid/Draisaitl. Right now I think the best matches for them would have to be Carolina (Faulk?) or Montreal (Pacioretty?). The Oilers would likely have to sweeten the pot to acquire either of those star players, however, but #10 pick would be a very strong starting point.

Ultimately, there is no reason to believe the Oilers are interested in trading down. They want a good player now.

One possibility in my mind would be Severson + another good prospect (Quenneville?) in exchange for the #10 pick. Oilers fans would say that this would be a bad trade for them, but again, we are not talking about an elite GM here. We're talking about Peter Chiarelli.

I'm not saying these are rumors, by the way. They're not. Just hypotheticals. I would love to get the #10 pick in NJ. The idea of getting a stud D like Smith or Dobson at #10 and then a high-upside wing like Kravtsov or Thomas at #17 is just unbelievable. I mean, the odds of such an instance are infinitesimal, but it's nice to dream.

 

[Nubmer6]

Any trade with Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli usually ends up being a good trade for the team trading with Chiarelli.

That being said, I think the Oilers want to use the #10 pick to get either a top-3 D or a winger who can play with McDavid/Draisaitl. Right now I think the best matches for them would have to be Carolina (Faulk?) or Montreal (Pacioretty?). The Oilers would likely have to sweeten the pot to acquire either of those star players, however, but #10 pick would be a very strong starting point.

Ultimately, there is no reason to believe the Oilers are interested in trading down. They want a good player now.

One possibility in my mind would be Severson + another good prospect (Quenneville?) in exchange for the #10 pick. Oilers fans would say that this would be a bad trade for them, but again, we are not talking about an elite GM here. We're talking about Peter Chiarelli.

I'm not saying these are rumors, by the way. They're not. Just hypotheticals. I would love to get the #10 pick in NJ. The idea of getting a stud D like Smith or Dobson at #10 and then a high-upside wing like Kravtsov or Thomas at #17 is just unbelievable. I mean, the odds of such an instance are infinitesimal, but it's nice to dream.

I was actually hoping to be able to get Klefbom from them for Severson, since they need help on RD, but I guess that would be just a pipe dream. The thought didn't really occur to me to get their #10 outright and not give up our #17. I'm not sure Severson + Quenneville is enough to do it, even with Chiarelli at their helm.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

If Chiarelli has an ounce of self awareness, he’s not making another trade with Shero. It could be a fair deal, but he has to know that pretty much everyone is going to conclude that he’s getting scammed.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If Chiarelli has an ounce of self awareness, he’s not making another trade with Shero. It could be a fair deal, but he has to know that pretty much everyone is going to conclude that he’s getting scammed.

Interesting fact: out of the top 10 scorers in the NHL this year, only three of them have been traded in their entire careers. All three of them have been traded by the same GM. The players are Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel and Blake Wheeler. The GM is Peter Chiarelli. And we are not even accounting for Tyler Seguin in this equation, who finished 24th in the NHL with 78 points.

The moral of the story is that we cannot overstate the fact that NHL GMs can be, quite simply, bad at their jobs.

 

[Brodeur]

Any trade with Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli usually ends up being a good trade for the team trading with Chiarelli.

That being said, I think the Oilers want to use the #10 pick to get either a top-3 D or a winger who can play with McDavid/Draisaitl. Right now I think the best matches for them would have to be Carolina (Faulk?) or Montreal (Pacioretty?). The Oilers would likely have to sweeten the pot to acquire either of those star players, however, but #10 pick would be a very strong starting point.

I was starting to think Tyler Myers to Edmonton would make some sense. Winnipeg's young guys are starting to get their big contracts. Ehlers' 6 mil/season extension starts next season. Trouba/Hellebuyck/Morrissey cost them a little more than 6 million combined this year, but that might get close to being tripled real soon. Then Laine/Wheeler are up for new deals the following summer, so they might like to turn Myers into future assets.

Carolina could be interesting in the sense that they were originally slotted to pick around #10 pre-lottery. So they might have really liked somebody in that spot (ie, Castron seemed to go out of his way to talk about Cody Glass post-lottery last year as if to say he had spent a lot of time scouting him but now wasn't in a spot to take him). When the Islanders won the lottery in 2000, they moved from #5 to #1. Later they'd trade back into the #5 spot to take Raffi Torres.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Interesting fact: out of the top 10 scorers in the NHL this year, only three of them have been traded in their entire careers. All three of them have been traded by the same GM. The players are Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel and Blake Wheeler. The GM is Peter Chiarelli. And we are not even accounting for Tyler Seguin in this equation, who finished 24th in the NHL with 78 points.

The moral of the story is that we cannot overstate the fact that NHL GMs can be, quite simply, bad at their jobs.

Oh, I’m not saying he won’t make another bad trade. Just that the optics will be terrible if it’s with Shero. Even he has to know that.

Also, the other trades were not known to be awful the second they were made. And actually, the Phil Kessel trade should have been a giant homerun, if he didn’t trade Seguin, and Sweeney had drafted Barzal with the pick he got for Hamilton.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I was starting to think Tyler Myers to Edmonton would make some sense. Winnipeg's young guys are starting to get their big contracts. Ehlers' 6 mil/season extension starts next season. Trouba/Hellebuyck/Morrissey cost them a little more than 6 million combined this year, but that might get close to being tripled real soon. Then Laine/Wheeler are up for new deals the following summer, so they might like to turn Myers into future assets.

Carolina could be interesting in the sense that they were originally slotted to pick around #10 pre-lottery. So they might have really liked somebody in that spot (ie, Castron seemed to go out of his way to talk about Cody Glass post-lottery last year as if to say he had spent a lot of time scouting him but now wasn't in a spot to take him). When the Islanders won the lottery in 2000, they moved from #5 to #1. Later they'd trade back into the #5 spot to take Raffi Torres.

Winnipeg can win the cup this year and next year with their unbelievable horde of talent. They are not trading for future assets.

I do agree with you on Carolina. Svechnikov is a lock to go at #2, but their scouts may have fallen in love with a Veleno or Kotkaniemi or Hayton at #10. They have built a stunning young blueline core of Hanifin-Slavin-Pesce with Bean-Martin-Fleury coming up through the pipeline, so maybe they decide to dangle Faulk -- who is precisely the player Edmonton needs. There are also rumors that Skinner could be traded, but I can't see new Canes GM Don Waddell being so daft. Though Skinner is precisely the type of player who would excel alongside McDavid, he is not the type of player Chiarelli seems to prefer (big, mean).

 

[StevenToddIves]

Oh, I’m not saying he won’t make another bad trade. Just that the optics will be terrible if it’s with Shero. Even he has to know that.

Also, the other trades were not known to be awful the second they were made. And actually, the Phil Kessel trade should have been a giant homerun, if he didn’t trade Seguin, and Sweeney had drafted Barzal with the pick he got for Hamilton.

I actually do not believe that the Hall trade was far-and-away Chiarelli's worst. The Griffin Reinhart trade is right there with it. Essentially, he traded Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier for a pylon. If you add Barzal to the list, Chiarelli traded FIVE of the NHL top 25 scorers this year (Hall, Kessel, Wheeler, Seguin, Barzal). Whatever the return on the Kessel deal, that's just atrocious asset management.

 

[MadDevil]

At least with the Hall trade he got back a useful NHL player. Granted he basically traded in a high end sports car for a pickup truck, but at least he got something in return.

Just imagine the Oilers if they'd kept Hall and drafted Barzal. They could have then dealt RNH or Draisatl for the top end defenseman they really need. Instead they've pissed away McDavid's ELC years.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

At least with the Hall trade he got back a useful NHL player. Granted he basically traded in a high end sports car for a pickup truck, but at least he got something in return.

Just imagine the Oilers if they'd kept Hall and drafted Barzal. They could have then dealt RNH or Draisatl for the top end defenseman they really need. Instead they've pissed away McDavid's ELC years.

I don't think Hall would be the player he is today had he stayed in Edmonton. Players often find new levels they didn't even know they had in themselves when they move to another organization. However, your point still stands.

 

[Zippy316]

At least with the Hall trade he got back a useful NHL player. Granted he basically traded in a high end sports car for a pickup truck, but at least he got something in return.

Just imagine the Oilers if they'd kept Hall and drafted Barzal. They could have then dealt RNH or Draisatl for the top end defenseman they really need. Instead they've pissed away McDavid's ELC years.

They would not have drafted Barzal. I believe the speculation was they were going to draft Eriksson Ek.

Hall likely does not revitalize his career in Edmonton with McDavid on the team. I don't think he was a problem, but both he and the organization needed a wake-up call. Edmonton had a great year in 16-17 and Hall completely changed his career around this past year.

 

[Devils Dominion]

At least with the Hall trade he got back a useful NHL player. Granted he basically traded in a high end sports car for a pickup truck, but at least he got something in return.

Just imagine the Oilers if they'd kept Hall and drafted Barzal. They could have then dealt RNH or Draisatl for the top end defenseman they really need. Instead they've pissed away McDavid's ELC years.

Is this an Edm-centric draft thread?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Is this an Edm-centric draft thread?

Well, Edmonton is (idiotically) shopping the #10 overall pick. If Shero could get somehow his hands on that, the Devils could draft Smith or Dobson at #10 and then get a high-upside F at #17. Or maybe Veleno at #10 and Miller or Wilde at 17.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Severson and JQ won’t get it done. You probably have to add our 17th pick. That’s a bit much to move up 7 spots in my opinion.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

a team that needs help on D trading one of its 3-4 best DMen for a draft pick sure is a GREAT strategy....

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Don’t know much about the prospect, however, if Hayton was to drop at where we pick should we consider him?

 

[Czech Trio]

With the emergence of Butcher and acquisition of Vatanen, offensively speaking, the blueline has taken a good step forward. This fact is starting to make me consider McIssac in the group of Wilde/Miller. Big minute eating, safe top 4 guy with offensive abilities to boot. Why is it that McIssac is almost always considered just a peg below the Miller/Wilde tier?

 

[devilsblood]

With the emergence of Butcher and acquisition of Vatanen, offensively speaking, the blueline has taken a good step forward. This fact is starting to make me consider McIssac in the group of Wilde/Miller. Big minute eating, safe top 4 guy with offensive abilities to boot. Why is it that McIssac is almost always considered just a peg below the Miller/Wilde tier?

By the sounds of it I'd say skating, and with that a more dynamic offensive skillset. As you say McIsaac looks to be more of a "safe" pick.

 

[KovalSNIPE]

With the emergence of Butcher and acquisition of Vatanen, offensively speaking, the blueline has taken a good step forward. This fact is starting to make me consider McIssac in the group of Wilde/Miller. Big minute eating, safe top 4 guy with offensive abilities to boot. Why is it that McIssac is almost always considered just a peg below the Miller/Wilde tier?

Because some nights he dominates and others he coasts. Simply inconsistent. He probably deserves to be more in the 10-12 range* on skill alone.

Someone is going to steal him because with the right coaching and right motivation, consistency can be taught.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I wouldn't touch McIsaac with any first round pick. You pick BPA and it appears Vitali Kravtsov will be that guy. Top 5 talent in the teens, similar to Kuznetsov. Whoever selects this kid is getting a star, potentially a superstar. I think Florida takes him ahead of us though.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I wouldn't touch McIsaac with any first round pick. You pick BPA and it appears Vitali Kravtsov will be that guy. Top 5 talent in the teens, similar to Kuznetsov. Whoever selects this kid is getting a star, potentially a superstar. I think Florida takes him ahead of us though.

Kravtsov to Florida is certainly a possibility, but keep in mind they drafted a RW in the first round last year (Owen Tippett). Drafting a RW in two consecutive first rounds is not often done by NHL GMs.

What I like about this draft, is that at #17 there should be several players available with "star" upside. Kravtsov is certainly one, but he is not alone. At F, Rasmus Kupari also has immense upside, whether at W or C. Bokk also has the potential to be a perennial 30+ goal sniper. At D, Miller and Wilde both have unbelievable upside, and boom/bust poster-child Ryan Merkley likely has more upside than any of them.

It's an interesting conundrum, for certain.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Only thing that concerns me about Kravstov is that if he carries his play from the playoffs to a full season next year he will likely be facing a decision to turn down millions for an ELC.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

@StevenToddIves Regarding Merkley, what is the truth behind his attitude torward learning the defensive side of the game? I haven't exactly tried to look super hard but I only saw people mentioning him needing to improve his defensive game but not anything particularly on his lack of willing to learn it. I saw some articles with Merkley himself stating that he's aware of his weaknesses and is trying to improve it.

I'm just really impressed with this guys skillset and offensive iq and my heart is saying to pick him haha.

Oh also, I did see some things about his "antics" and I'm not worried about it whatsoever. He's young and is really skilled. People have inflated egos at that age, especially people of his skill.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves Regarding Merkley, what is the truth behind his attitude torward learning the defensive side of the game? I haven't exactly tried to look super hard but I only saw people mentioning him needing to improve his defensive game but not anything particularly on his lack of willing to learn it. I saw some articles with Merkley himself stating that he's aware of his weaknesses and is trying to improve it.

I'm just really impressed with this guys skillset and offensive iq and my heart is saying to pick him haha.

Oh also, I did see some things about his "antics" and I'm not worried about it whatsoever. He's young and is really skilled. People have inflated egos at that age, especially people of his skill.

With prospects, we have to look at development curve in order to perform the (admittedly imprecise) task of projecting both future development and talent ceiling.

For instance, two seasons ago Adam Boqvist was an outstanding offensive defenseman who was atrocious in his own zone. Though now no one would confuse him with Scott Stevens defensively, he has become an extremely adequate defensive blueliner. Thus, even though no one is drafting Boqvist strictly based on his defensive abilities, he has developed to a point where he is no longer a liability there. So we can say that Boqvist is an extremely talented prospect who is developing along a normal curve, which increases his chances of reaching his potential.

Now, take my personal fave K'Andre Miller. Two years ago he was virtually a non-prospect. He had recently moved from forward to defense, and thus lacked knowledge and positioning skills on the backline. However, he is an extremely smart and athletic kid and his development curve has been like a skyrocket upwards. Though he is not as far along in his development as a similar athletic specimen like Noah Dobson, his extremely steep development curve makes me feel that Miller has the capability of catching and passing a kid like Dobson at the NHL level.

Now back to Merkley. What concerns scouts is not simply that he is a liability defensively. It is that he has shown little to no improvement in that aspect of his game over the past two seasons. Surely, everyone at the coaching and scouting level has told him time and time again that in order to make it in the NHL, he will have to up his play in his own zone and without the puck. The fact that he has shown little regard or desire in this respect is... well, alarming.

At the end of the 2016-2017 season, most prognosticators had Merkley as a top five pick offensive D and Boqvist as a top ten pick offensive D. But Boqvist's improved defensive play has moved him up into a possible top-5 selection. Merkley has dropped down into a possible second-round pick, solely because his development curve is only pointing upwards when the puck is on his stick.

Is it possible that Merkely, still just a kid, can flick a switch and start working his tail off and become an absolute superstar in the NHL? Yes. Is it possible that he continues to only play with discernible desire in the offensive end and becomes an AHL tweener? Also, yes. It's up to him. But that's the chance a team is taking when they draft him.

I hope I answered your question satisfactorily.