Speculation: Possum Oilers

[FlameChampion]

I said all year wait for the playoffs. The regular season hasn’t been meaningful for these guys in a while. It starts with McDavid he knows the one thing missing from cementing his name as an all time great is a cup. Coming as close as we did last year and not winning left a bitter taste. They don’t want to experience that again and at this point they have so much experience they know to pace themselves during the season and give it all when the games start to matter in the spring.

I just think if McDavid was saving himself for the playoffs, he would be more dominant than he has been. Hes been good but honestly him and Draisaitl have been more impactful in the past especially in the first two rounds.

 

[MessierII]

I just think if McDavid was saving himself for the playoffs, he would be more dominant than he has been. Hes been good but honestly him and Draisaitl have been more impactful in the past especially in the first two rounds.

His point per game is actually up from last year. Only 1 point on the pp too.

 

[FlameChampion]

His point per game is actually up from last year. Only 1 point on the pp too.

Fair enough. I stand corrected. Maybe the rest of the team picking it up has overshadowed him a bit.

 

[Mr Positive]

His point per game is actually up from last year. Only 1 point on the pp too.

Plus one of the downsides of treating the regular season like a preseason is that it might take time to get truly rolling. It was good that we had the Kings to start because we just have their number so it was a great chance to let players like Walman, Kane, Draisaitl, Hyman, Frederic, and Klingberg to work through their obvious rust and injury recovery and get up to full speed. McDavid might also be off his game still, with the linemate chaos around him and the special teams almost starting from scratch to find a new groove.

I said it early in the LA series. The longer this goes, the better. There was risk of being swept. I figured it was just about surviving the first round but it really seems like we are still not up to full game speed. Maybe game 4 was the breakthrough. We'll have to do another readjustment to bring in Ekholm, and I wonder if Jeff Skinner comes in again.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Long read, bear with me;

Well here we are. Well into the playoffs and now quite clear the Oilers are a much different club than was shown in regular season. The Oilers finished 9th place in 32 team league and 3rd in division not even having home advantage in any series.

One can never really know if a team is hanging back, hanging in the weeds or whether a club in regular season is just what it is.

The Oilers under present coaching staff have pulled wool over eyes, including mine.

Based on Regular season performance I often stated "this dog won't hunt" I was basing that on Age of team, performance, how little players were going in regular season etc. For instance we had only 3 players over 50pts. Everybody knows who they are. Everybody else seemed to struggle to produce in regular season. The team as a result struggled to gain any traction on the way to a fairly pedestrian 3rd place finish and down the stretch only 5pts up on the Calgary Flames in the out of playoffs rear view mirror.

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Suspicions were had that the club were taking a different approach this season Parking Kane all year, Parking McD, Drai, other players down the stretch. Of note there's no other time where McD and Drai were off the lineup this many games down the stretch. Sure they were banged up with undisclosed condition. But they were getting rest.

This year is somewhat reminiscent to 1990 Oilers. A non stellar regular season and 2nd place in division and 5th place in standings in a then 21 team league. (This would equate to roughly 8th place today in a 32 team league, very similar) That year the OIlers had usual players going but didn't look like any world beater. Then they got the Kidline, they found goaltending in Ranford, and that team struggled immensely in first round against Winnipeg but once they got on a roll it was a wagon. By SC final the club was unstoppable polishing off the Bruins in 5 games even though Bruins had the best season in the league.
The other comparable is that I've often said that KK/Coffey are the best coaches we've had since Muckler. Period.



This playoffs Oilers started off rocky struggling with the Kings, then found a decent goalie, and then got rolling. The team are currently on a 7W 1L run and are walking games.

But suddenly everybody is rowing. The only real difference from regular season is getting Kane back, and also having Walman. but also consider not having Ekholm. So this club shouldn't be inordinately better than the regular season. Unless the whole club was simply playing possum.

Lets do some individual contrasts. As mentioned in regular season we only had 3 players with 50 or more pts. Suddenly in playoffs we have 9 players on that kind of heater and several of them looking remarkably different than they did all season.
In regular season we only had 3 players with 25 or more goals. Drai, Hyman and McD in that order. Suddenly in playoffs we have so many hothands now with 9 players on a 25 or greater goal pace.

Players that have significantly elevated are Perry, Brown, Henrique Janmark savvy veterans that had to have been saving it all for playoffs. All 3 have been going off like machine guns suddenly in games here or there potting and producing. Its like this is our "Kid line" haha, this season except in hockey respects its Senior Citizens this time with Perry leading the way at age 40.

A primary reason I was saying "this dog won't hunt" all year (and my prognosis was 2nd or third round Oilers exit ftr) I was basing that on a bunch of old players cannot play an 82 game season and playoffs balls out. That they would run out of gas. What I hadn't predicted is how many of the players really were playing possum just lying low starting with guys like McD and Hyman. Really the only way you would get blow the doors off energy from this club, right now, is if they had all taken it fairly easy on regular season and Only Drai went hard all year and now he looks a bit gassed (although still playing huge quiet role like last night in a shutdown performance.

View attachment 1035079

The one thing though, still, is goaltending. The org ought to have acquired insurance in this position. Didn't have to be any elite goalie, Just somebody competent in case of injury or goalie struggles. Stu took the advice though, he simplified his game, stayed in net, didn't overcomplicate or overplay or go sliding around.

The org did though get a lot of insurance in the roster at other positions. We have more capable D now than we can dress and this even without Ekholm. So org gets big credit on this. Klingberg another one that at age probably didn't have tons of games left in him but can be good in limited games usage for playoffs. Walman has been better than I thought. Booch has returned to form. Kulak has gone back to playoff Kulak. At forward not much changed. We got Frederic but he's still not found his game and still may be injured. But of course we got Kane back which is huge. But we got so many forwards last night we parked Arviddson and again J Skinner and have Jones and Ryan in the reeds somewhere as well. We parked Kapanen all playoffs and last night he was a sparkplug, so was Stecher. so when guys get tired we have plug ins this post season.

I think the biggest thing about the start of the playoffs, was that the first few games was the first time this whole team has played together with how we were resting players and such, and now you even have players like Kapanen taking runs at vegas players and laying them out.

If Ekholm was healthy, we would have 6 D I wouldnt hesitate to play in that 18-22 minute mark with Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse, Walman, Klingberg, Stecher.

The Oilers have 2 players that are a minus, Nurse at -1 and Jeff Skinner at -2 in 1 game.

This isnt the same old Oilers that had to rely on the powerplay.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I said all year wait for the playoffs. The regular season hasn’t been meaningful for these guys in a while. It starts with McDavid he knows the one thing missing from cementing his name as an all time great is a cup. Coming as close as we did last year and not winning left a bitter taste. They don’t want to experience that again and at this point they have so much experience they know to pace themselves during the season and give it all when the games start to matter in the spring.

It's similar to how the pens stars paced themselves during the regular season.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Plus one of the downsides of treating the regular season like a preseason is that it might take time to get truly rolling. It was good that we had the Kings to start because we just have their number so it was a great chance to let players like Walman, Kane, Draisaitl, Hyman, Frederic, and Klingberg to work through their obvious rust and injury recovery and get up to full speed. McDavid might also be off his game still, with the linemate chaos around him and the special teams almost starting from scratch to find a new groove.

I had a theory about the PP that isn't true (yet) was something Scotty Bowman said about the first time he unveiled the 'Russian 5'.

After they absolutely spanked Calgary, Our GM's dad refused to put the R5 together again until key moments in the 2nd and 3rd playoff rounds because he felt if they were constantly used, then other teams at some point would be able to watch enough video on them and figure out what they were doing.

(Which is precisely what happened to our Powerplay).

Literally all of the key sequences and plays we used last year are now copy+pasted by every other team and practiced.

So I started to wonder if our coaching staff changed anything to make our playoffs unpredictable.

Turns out RNH sorta spilled the beans. The Knoblach line blender has been used so relentlessly the past season (to the detriment of regular season results) everyone has random chemistry with random linemates, and are able to quickly develop chemistry as they've all played with each other at various points throughout the season.

Last nights line switchups gave the Oilers a completely different look the Knights weren't prepared for. They weren't expecting Draisaitl to hard-match Eichel in a defensive role, and they weren't expecting such relentless speed and physicality from a Kane-Henrique-Brown line. They weren't expecting to be physically hammered by Hyman or for McDavid to block shots.


Our unpredictability is such a ridiculous advantage. If they gameplan around Game 4, then what? Do hard line-Matches to get Eichel away from Drai-Pod-Kapanen?

Cool lets put McDavid back on Drai's wing and let him feast on how slow the Hertl's line has been (no points from Hertl this series).

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I think it was clear as day the Oil were only in second or third gear for most of the regular season.
They ran a barebones roster #'s wise, and avoided physical play like the plague.

The question was always going to be could they flip the switch quick enough in the playoffs; and they flirted heavily with crashing out. It took a Hiller disaster-class to save them. However now that they're up and running? With Kane, Frederic, and Klingberg all getting up to speed, it's night and day when it comes to on ice product.

Also suddenly their main PB options are guys they've trusted to play all year in Skinner, Kapanen, and Stecher/Emberson. Last year you had questions about how much could Holloway or Broberg contribute; This year you know exactly what to expect out of Kapanen or Stecher, and the coach has no reservations about playing them.

The depth is now contributing and more importantly is able to rotate so everyone stays fresh. It's how they've been able to weather not having Ekholm.

 

[aqib]

Every championship run requires a mix of luck and strategy. Sitting Kane until the playoffs began, resting guys down the stretch, etc = strategy. A bounce here and there and Pickard making clutch saves = luck. If Skinner catches fire after sitting for a few games = more luck. Let's face it, we're due for some luck to come our way.

 

[Dieseloil]

Bounces and luck plus officiating have a lot to do with playoff hockey. We could of just as easily got the boot from LA.,

 

[Drivesaitl]

Great post. I felt the same way as you. The only difference was that I was confident prior to 4 nations as this team had lead the league, every single week, in xG differential. Then can 4 nations. After that I was hoping they would get thru the first round- but like you said- they became a wagon. This team was dead last in hits in the regular season!

You bring up Skinner. In his whole NHL career he has struggled with rush chances (odd and full man). According to Steve Valiquette, Skinner is dead last against it. Last season, the oilers allowed the 2nd least amount of rush chances against, and somehow, Skinner allowed the most goals. The problem is he has trouble assessing the speed of the rush and his timing and spacing. The winning game 7 goal against Florida was a 1 on 2 rush shot by Reinhard. Skinner’s in-zone goaltending is apparently pretty solid. Last year he had the second best save % against in-zone e
chances. If the Oilers can eliminate rush chances, and IF Skinner has worked on his timing on rush chances - he may be enough. Pickard is significantly better against the rush.

Thanks, haven't had any time to respond lately so catching up. The hits stat seems to tell a lot doesn't it. They were taking it easy in regular season. Meanwhile Hyman suddenly leads the league in hits in postseason. yeah this is an entirely different dial in. They were saving it.

I'd question the in zone stuff re Skinner. Its just that teams aren't really doing what need to do to solve him. They should generate mroe plays from behind net, and especially when on PP. If the cycle is in front of him Skinner does OK provided he see's the pucks.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I liked this so much I read it twice!

You have said many times that the team has ridden McDrai too hard through the regular season, and where we sit now is pretty strong evidence you were right. But it goes right down the entire lineup. I thought the Kings looked tired toward the end of last series, and last night we may have started to see that with Vegas as well. All of a sudden we seem to be the club that’s cruising while the opponent is the one that’s battling. The shoe seems to be on the other foot this season doesn’t it?

We’re not even through the second round yet so probably the less said the better for now. But it’s hard not to be just a little excited by what we’ve seen so far.

Thanks for appreciating my first threadstart in 4yrs. Yeah we had McD lite all season. Drai was dialing up his hard game all year and its also showing because he doesn't have tons in the tank. But KK also realizing this is givng Drai specifically defensive assignment in this series and the line ware doing well at it shutting down the top Vegas line. Its a kind of Sather/Muckler masterstroke.

The Oilers all of a sudden have all this energy for skating, hits adn outplaying. hopefully the gas tank lasts awhile.

As far as where we are I figured we'd go out in 2nd or 3rd round so the club the way they're playing is already exceeding expectation in my mind. Maybe they get it all, but none of us can complain with the way the club are playing. Every player giving last drop. You rarely see this sort of thing to this degree. Oilers got some resolve right now. They want it more than the teams they been playing. Goes along way.

 

[foshizzle]

Thanks, haven't had any time to respond lately so catching up. The hits stat seems to tell a lot doesn't it. They were taking it easy in regular season. Meanwhile Hyman suddenly leads the league in hits in postseason. yeah this is an entirely different dial in. They were saving it.

I'd question the in zone stuff re Skinner. It’s just that teams aren't really doing what need to do to solve him. They should generate mroe plays from behind net, and especially when on PP. If the cycle is in front of him Skinner does OK provided he see's the pucks.

Oh I agree on the in-zone save % with Skinner. Save % is more of a team stat, and we know the team was excellent at limiting high danger chances- so of course we would see an increase in save % because of this. Rush chances usually have uncontested shots- man v man- and Skinner losses those battles spectacularly

 

[Stoneman89]

Interesting to see that the top 2 teams in the regular season (based on points) are now on the cusp of elimination. Honestly, I am not totally surprised. Hellebucyk has always had the playoff anchor around his neck, and I think the Jets have too many sweethearts for a long playoff push. Washington completely overperformed this year, and were never as good as their record. They're a big robust team though, but too many holes, and are reverting to what they really are.

No one could really make a proper assessment of the Oilers capabilities (due to injuries, new players, etc), so some posters should stop beating themselves up on here. They are now showing that when at their best, they will be a tough out, if not THE toughest out. We've had a lot of tight games so far, but I believe we're getting due for a blowout or 2 when McDavid and Drai finally bring their triple A games together.

 

[alanschu]

I think the cup hangover was real until USA Thanksgiving or so

Then the goaltending remained sketch, and a wrath of injuries occurred

I think this team would have won the division if the above never happened

Florida's game log last year was hit or miss as well IIRC.

They had some real solid runs in the middle but got off to a slow start and were stumbling a bit at the end until they won 4 straight.

 

[timekeep]

Interesting to see that the top 2 teams in the regular season (based on points) are now on the cusp of elimination. Honestly, I am not totally surprised. Hellebucyk has always had the playoff anchor around his neck, and I think the Jets have too many sweethearts for a long playoff push. Washington completely overperformed this year, and were never as good as their record. They're a big robust team though, but too many holes, and are reverting to what they really are.

No one could really make a proper assessment of the Oilers capabilities (due to injuries, new players, etc), so some posters should stop beating themselves up on here. They are now showing that when at their best, they will be a tough out, if not THE toughest out. We've had a lot of tight games so far, but I believe we're getting due for a blowout or 2 when McDavid and Drai finally bring their triple A games together.

There is a good chance all 4 division winners will be bounced this round.

 

[MoneyGuy]

Talked with two Calgary friends.

First round: Oilers aren’t that good; Kings will win. We win: Kings rolled over for them; Vegas is too good and will win.

Second round: Vegas is much better than the Kings and will win handily. Oilers win and it’s Vegas rolled over but Dallas/Winnipeg are much better and will easily handle the Oilers. Especially Dallas; they’re a much better team.

It was exactly the same last year. Every series it was “the Oilers aren’t that good, they’re doing it with mirrors and the other team is much better.” When we won, it was “they rolled over for the Oilers. The Oilers will lose the next series.”

The other theme is: the other teams have no heart; the Flames would have beaten them.

When will the haters give these guys credit. They’re a very good team; no one is rolling over. They’re being beaten by a better team. There are no mirrors. The Flames would not have beaten them.

It’s like these guys are reading from a script.

 

[CornKicker]

i agree and even told my circle of hockey fans (maybe even posted it here) that the oilers are basically kevin nash sitting in a wheelchair with a fake cast on and come playoff time they are gonna hop up and just start dummying everyone.

 

[CornKicker]

also like to add in the oilers have mopped up 2 very good teams with arguably their best defender out with injury

 

[AM]

Plus one of the downsides of treating the regular season like a preseason is that it might take time to get truly rolling. It was good that we had the Kings to start because we just have their number so it was a great chance to let players like Walman, Kane, Draisaitl, Hyman, Frederic, and Klingberg to work through their obvious rust and injury recovery and get up to full speed. McDavid might also be off his game still, with the linemate chaos around him and the special teams almost starting from scratch to find a new groove.

I said it early in the LA series. The longer this goes, the better. There was risk of being swept. I figured it was just about surviving the first round but it really seems like we are still not up to full game speed. Maybe game 4 was the breakthrough. We'll have to do another readjustment to bring in Ekholm, and I wonder if Jeff Skinner comes in again.

Depends who we play. He’s not a good fit for playing Vegas.

It’s very likely that someone gets injured and he is next up.

Btw, playing the reg season inside the safe zone is the way to do it as long as you make the playoffs.

Playing on the edge in the reg season to get paid is exactly what we didn’t need.

 

[PitkanensGitch]

When we look at past cup champions, I used to think you needed the superstar, all situations #1 D to win. I looked at Hedman, Makar, Doughty, Keith, etc — guys who truly dominated in all aspects of the game. I remember thinking Carolina 2006 was the last time a team won without having the bonafide #1.

Then we look at the last two Cup champs. Florida and Vegas. Incredibly deep at D but no true #1 like the aforementioned. Pietro was great, Forsling was great — however neither fit the bill when we think of the Lidstroms, Makars, Hedmans, etc that dominated the Stanley cup winning clubs rosters.

It’s a new NHL where every single defenceman on your roster has to be solid and competent. With the improved play of Darnell we are now witnessing the evidence of this. Teams are realizing you can still find success and win Cups ‘by committee’ in the way Carolina did and to a lesser extent Pittsburgh with Letang as their top dog.

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Kulak
Walman-Klingberg

This is the best defensive group I’ve been alive to see as an Oilers fan. Every player is playing solid and we aren’t looking to shelter anyone. While Bouchard is very good, he isn’t Hedman. He doesn’t need to be. He isn’t Makar either and that’s all right.

Vegas and Florida realized the importance of pro scouting and bringing in guys who aren’t going to get exposed. By committee. We are one of those clubs now, and I’m interested in seeing if other teams start building this way in lieu of missing a superstar D.

We see a thread on the main board about not paying for the big #1 goalie anymore, teams opting to go with a tandem. I wonder if teams will start looking past paying the premium on a #1 guy on the back end when they can get multiple #2-3 guys instead.

 

[AM]

Oilers never played possum. They played it smart. Beating a 40 player team is harder than beating a 2 player team.

This is what it looks like.

 

[TimG]

If it was truly all calculated, crafted and planned this way, they should’ve dominated right from the get go against the kings. But that’s not how it went. They were lucky not to go down 3-0.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

My favourite thing about this era of Oilers is their elite ability to troll the dummy fans who prematurely shoot their mouth off all season long with bad takes. You’d think the usual suspects would learn eventually but they just continue to spew it and get proven wrong.

Loved McDavids comments in the last post game scrum in the room.