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Speculation: Possum Oilers

Drivesaitl

Time to Drive
Oct 8, 2017
46,837
72,091
Duck hunting
Long read, bear with me;

Well here we are. Well into the playoffs and now quite clear the Oilers are a much different club than was shown in regular season. The Oilers finished 9th place in 32 team league and 3rd in division not even having home advantage in any series.

One can never really know if a team is hanging back, hanging in the weeds or whether a club in regular season is just what it is.

The Oilers under present coaching staff have pulled wool over eyes, including mine.

Based on Regular season performance I often stated "this dog won't hunt" I was basing that on Age of team, performance, how little players were going in regular season etc. For instance we had only 3 players over 50pts. Everybody knows who they are. Everybody else seemed to struggle to produce in regular season. The team as a result struggled to gain any traction on the way to a fairly pedestrian 3rd place finish and down the stretch only 5pts up on the Calgary Flames in the out of playoffs rear view mirror.

1747160021376.png


Suspicions were had that the club were taking a different approach this season Parking Kane all year, Parking McD, Drai, other players down the stretch. Of note there's no other time where McD and Drai were off the lineup this many games down the stretch. Sure they were banged up with undisclosed condition. But they were getting rest.

This year is somewhat reminiscent to 1990 Oilers. A non stellar regular season and 2nd place in division and 5th place in standings in a then 21 team league. (This would equate to roughly 8th place today in a 32 team league, very similar) That year the OIlers had usual players going but didn't look like any world beater. Then they got the Kidline, they found goaltending in Ranford, and that team struggled immensely in first round against Winnipeg but once they got on a roll it was a wagon. By SC final the club was unstoppable polishing off the Bruins in 5 games even though Bruins had the best season in the league.
The other comparable is that I've often said that KK/Coffey are the best coaches we've had since Muckler. Period.



This playoffs Oilers started off rocky struggling with the Kings, then found a decent goalie, and then got rolling. The team are currently on a 7W 1L run and are walking games.

But suddenly everybody is rowing. The only real difference from regular season is getting Kane back, and also having Walman. but also consider not having Ekholm. So this club shouldn't be inordinately better than the regular season. Unless the whole club was simply playing possum.

Lets do some individual contrasts. As mentioned in regular season we only had 3 players with 50 or more pts. Suddenly in playoffs we have 9 players on that kind of heater and several of them looking remarkably different than they did all season.
In regular season we only had 3 players with 25 or more goals. Drai, Hyman and McD in that order. Suddenly in playoffs we have so many hothands now with 9 players on a 25 or greater goal pace.

Players that have significantly elevated are Perry, Brown, Henrique Janmark savvy veterans that had to have been saving it all for playoffs. All 3 have been going off like machine guns suddenly in games here or there potting and producing. Its like this is our "Kid line" haha, this season except in hockey respects its Senior Citizens this time with Perry leading the way at age 40.

A primary reason I was saying "this dog won't hunt" all year (and my prognosis was 2nd or third round Oilers exit ftr) I was basing that on a bunch of old players cannot play an 82 game season and playoffs balls out. That they would run out of gas. What I hadn't predicted is how many of the players really were playing possum just lying low starting with guys like McD and Hyman. Really the only way you would get blow the doors off energy from this club, right now, is if they had all taken it fairly easy on regular season and Only Drai went hard all year and now he looks a bit gassed (although still playing huge quiet role like last night in a shutdown performance.

1747159767294.png


The one thing though, still, is goaltending. The org ought to have acquired insurance in this position. Didn't have to be any elite goalie, Just somebody competent in case of injury or goalie struggles. Stu took the advice though, he simplified his game, stayed in net, didn't overcomplicate or overplay or go sliding around.

The org did though get a lot of insurance in the roster at other positions. We have more capable D now than we can dress and this even without Ekholm. So org gets big credit on this. Klingberg another one that at age probably didn't have tons of games left in him but can be good in limited games usage for playoffs. Walman has been better than I thought. Booch has returned to form. Kulak has gone back to playoff Kulak. At forward not much changed. We got Frederic but he's still not found his game and still may be injured. But of course we got Kane back which is huge. But we got so many forwards last night we parked Arviddson and again J Skinner and have Jones and Ryan in the reeds somewhere as well. We parked Kapanen all playoffs and last night he was a sparkplug, so was Stecher. so when guys get tired we have plug ins this post season.
 

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Long read, bear with me;

Well here we are. Well into the playoffs and now quite clear the Oilers are a much different club than was shown in regular season. The Oilers finished 9th place in 32 team league and 3rd in division not even having home advantage in any series.

One can never really know if a team is hanging back, hanging in the weeds or whether a club in regular season is just what it is.

The Oilers under present coaching staff have pulled wool over eyes, including mine.

Based on Regular season performance I often stated "this dog won't hunt" I was basing that on Age of team, performance, how little players were going in regular season etc. For instance we had only 3 players over 50pts. Everybody knows who they are. Everybody else seemed to struggle to produce in regular season. The team as a result struggled to gain any traction on the way to a fairly pedestrian 3rd place finish and down the stretch only 5pts up on the Calgary Flames in the out of playoffs rear view mirror.

View attachment 1035083

Suspicions were had that the club were taking a different approach this season Parking Kane all year, Parking McD, Drai, other players down the stretch. Of note there's no other time where McD and Drai were off the lineup this many games down the stretch. Sure they were banged up with undisclosed condition. But they were getting rest.

This year is somewhat reminiscent to 1990 Oilers. A non stellar regular season and 2nd place in division and 5th place in standings in a then 21 team league. (This would equate to roughly 8th place today in a 32 team league, very similar) That year the OIlers had usual players going but didn't look like any world beater. Then they got the Kidline, they found goaltending in Ranford, and that team struggled immensely in first round against Winnipeg but once they got on a roll it was a wagon. By SC final the club was unstoppable polishing off the Bruins in 5 games even though Bruins had the best season in the league.
The other comparable is that I've often said that KK/Coffey are the best coaches we've had since Muckler. Period.



This playoffs Oilers started off rocky struggling with the Kings, then found a decent goalie, and then got rolling. The team are currently on a 7W 1L run and are walking games.

But suddenly everybody is rowing. The only real difference from regular season is getting Kane back, and also having Walman. but also consider not having Ekholm. So this club shouldn't be inordinately better than the regular season. Unless the whole club was simply playing possum.

Lets do some individual contrasts. As mentioned in regular season we only had 3 players with 50 or more pts. Suddenly in playoffs we have 9 players on that kind of heater and several of them looking remarkably different than they did all season.
In regular season we only had 3 players with 25 or more goals. Drai, Hyman and McD in that order. Suddenly in playoffs we have so many hothands now with 9 players on a 25 or greater goal pace.

Players that have significantly elevated are Perry, Brown, Henrique Janmark savvy veterans that had to have been saving it all for playoffs. All 3 have been going off like machine guns suddenly in games here or there potting and producing. Its like this is our "Kid line" haha, this season except in hockey respects its Senior Citizens this time with Perry leading the way at age 40.

A primary reason I was saying "this dog won't hunt" all year (and my prognosis was 2nd or third round Oilers exit ftr) I was basing that on a bunch of old players cannot play an 82 game season and playoffs balls out. That they would run out of gas. What I hadn't predicted is how many of the players really were playing possum just lying low starting with guys like McD and Hyman. Really the only way you would get blow the doors off energy from this club, right now, is if they had all taken it fairly easy on regular season and Only Drai went hard all year and now he looks a bit gassed (although still playing huge quiet role like last night in a shutdown performance.

View attachment 1035079

The one thing though, still, is goaltending. The org ought to have acquired insurance in this position. Didn't have to be any elite goalie, Just somebody competent in case of injury or goalie struggles. Stu took the advice though, he simplified his game, stayed in net, didn't overcomplicate or overplay or go sliding around.

The org did though get a lot of insurance in the roster at other positions. We have more capable D now than we can dress and this even without Ekholm. So org gets big credit on this. Klingberg another one that at age probably didn't have tons of games left in him but can be good in limited games usage for playoffs. Walman has been better than I thought. Booch has returned to form. Kulak has gone back to playoff Kulak. At forward not much changed. We got Frederic but he's still not found his game and still may be injured. But of course we got Kane back which is huge. But we got so many forwards last night we parked Arviddson and again J Skinner and have Jones and Ryan in the reeds somewhere as well. We parked Kapanen all playoffs and last night he was a sparkplug, so was Stecher. so when guys get tired we have plug ins this post season.

Great post. I felt the same way as you. The only difference was that I was confident prior to 4 nations as this team had lead the league, every single week, in xG differential. Then can 4 nations. After that I was hoping they would get thru the first round- but like you said- they became a wagon. This team was dead last in hits in the regular season!

You bring up Skinner. In his whole NHL career he has struggled with rush chances (odd and full man). According to Steve Valiquette, Skinner is dead last against it. Last season, the oilers allowed the 2nd least amount of rush chances against, and somehow, Skinner allowed the most goals. The problem is he has trouble assessing the speed of the rush and his timing and spacing. The winning game 7 goal against Florida was a 1 on 2 rush shot by Reinhard. Skinner’s in-zone goaltending is apparently pretty solid. Last year he had the second best save % against in-zone e
chances. If the Oilers can eliminate rush chances, and IF Skinner has worked on his timing on rush chances - he may be enough. Pickard is significantly better against the rush.
 
I was calling for the benching of Perry, Janmark, Henrique, etc.

In hindsight it tracks. As @The Nuge mentioned above, it’s not uncommon for teams that have been deep to try and manage their play through the regular season to be healthy and energetic come time for games to matter. I posted weeks ago that I don’t care how any of our guys play in the regular season, as long as we make the playoffs. Funnily enough @Drivesaitl you may remember responding to this in disagreement — essentially saying they are what they are and to not expect them to bring it come postseason. I suppose that’s where this thread is coming from.

I am in disbelief at how well some of these guys are playing. Last night the pairings seemed perfect. Whole team dialed in. They typically played so weirdly in front of Skinner however it was like someone said something in the locker room that inspired each and every player to ‘play the right way’. The drastic change of mentality is shocking.

Connor Brown as the Pisani is special. He is so quick and healthy now, absolute gamer. I truly thought we were dead in the water against LA with them all doing nothing in our bottom 6.

Let us hope this sticks. I believe more importantly is having Nurse playing strong minutes. Stecher being able to takes 10 minutes more than Emberson is a boon as well. He looked damn good.

Most of us are disgusted by Stuart Skinner … however he’s our guy and we need to wish him the best.. that he can continue his play from last night and bring us to the promise land. Good luck brother.
 
This team reminds me of the 2014 Kings. Lots of recent playoff hockey, so they let off the gas in the regular season, and coasted in at 3rd in the division. Then proceeded to crank things way up for playoffs
I think we will see more of that from the Oilers in future seasons. Half-ass their way thru the season and crank it up in the playoffs.
 
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I was hoping they were playing rope a dope since the team looked, old, slow and not very physical during the season. The last month when all of a sudden every main player was "injured" gave me the feeling that they were taking it easy during the season and load managing for the playoffs. So far the Kings and Knights look much slower and more tired then us and taking it easy, especially near the end of the season is probably a factor for it.
 
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To start the playoffs too, we were just minutes away from going down 0-3 against the Kings. And a crazy bounce goal followed by one of the stupidest coaches challenges ever, followed by a PP goal just seconds after the start of the PP on a play we have never seen our team do before, leads us to 4 straight wins. We even flirted with going down 1-3 the next game until a stupid play by the Kings let us tie it :)

It was a whole year of underachieving, followed by us flirting with doom in the first round as far as any team could possibly take it without it being over. Finally some things started to go our way, finally our players were all looking reasonably healthy (minus Ek of course), finally a goalie was in the net that could make a timely save after a whole season of our "starter" struggling. A bunch of sparks at the same time and we were off to the races starting to look confident and put the season in the rear view mirror.

Great story if we actually can go all the way :)
 
I totally believe that this team was playing possum doing just enough to make the dance. After going all the way last year the regular season seemed like a big let down for our stars I think. I think they have finally caught on that it’s a marathon not a sprint. Even Connor and Leon seem to be almost purposely holding back and doing just enough to win. I think come the WCF/SCF we will see them hit another gear. There is one mission this season and it’s a big silver shiny one.
 
This is just a bizarre team. There really isn’t another team in the league quite like the Oilers are. This team looked frankly mediocre over large portions of the year. Even when they were first in the pacific, they didn’t inspire confidence.

The forward group in particular looked lacklustre in the regular season.

I’m not sure I personally buy that they have been playing possum all year. Their PP has looked pedestrian in the regular season and it looks pedestrian now.

I think the biggest difference is just the forwards. This group underachieved all year. Since about game 4 in the LA series, this forward group just looks different. I think Kane is a big part of it. I think he just makes everyone a bit bigger. I think guys like Kane, Perry, Frederic, Podkolzin etc are just a pain in the ass to play against. Guys like Janmark, Brown etc have elevated their game and are a pain in the ass from a forechecking point of view.

The scary part is that I don’t even think McDavid and Draisaitl have been all world and it honestly doesn’t matter. The forwards are coming in waves.

The defense is a mixed bag but have been playing better. Bouchard, Walman and Klingberg move the puck pretty well so it makes the team look faster than they are. Kulak also raises his game in the playoffs. Not sure how many dcores have 3+ guys that can move the puck well. Too bad we don’t have Ekholm because I think the dcore would look scary good with him.

The goaltending has been a mixed bag but honestly we don’t require spectacular goaltending. Maybe the rollercoaster of goaltending has given the team some resilience though. Other teams like Winnipeg, Washington etc kinda fall apart when their goaltending goes off the rails. Oilers are just kind of used to it.

I’m not really sure the team has been playing possum but they certainly have come together. I do think the team has guys who raise their games in the playoffs. The crazy fan base probably deserves some credit for pumping these guys up.
 
I think the cup hangover was real until USA Thanksgiving or so

Then the goaltending remained sketch, and a wrath of injuries occurred

I think this team would have won the division if the above never happened
 
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This thread feels like it’s a month premature but everything about this team feels good after a game like last night so who cares. One thing is certain though, this team is much better than the Kings and the Knights are. That in itself doesn’t mean much until they get into games against their next opponent and we can see how they stack up. Every series is different and too much can be made about how a team looked in the previous round. Perfect example of that is Dallas looked unbeatable heading into the WCF against the Oilers last year and then the wheels fell off for them.
 
Long read, bear with me;

Well here we are. Well into the playoffs and now quite clear the Oilers are a much different club than was shown in regular season. The Oilers finished 9th place in 32 team league and 3rd in division not even having home advantage in any series.

One can never really know if a team is hanging back, hanging in the weeds or whether a club in regular season is just what it is.

The Oilers under present coaching staff have pulled wool over eyes, including mine.

Based on Regular season performance I often stated "this dog won't hunt" I was basing that on Age of team, performance, how little players were going in regular season etc. For instance we had only 3 players over 50pts. Everybody knows who they are. Everybody else seemed to struggle to produce in regular season. The team as a result struggled to gain any traction on the way to a fairly pedestrian 3rd place finish and down the stretch only 5pts up on the Calgary Flames in the out of playoffs rear view mirror.

View attachment 1035083

Suspicions were had that the club were taking a different approach this season Parking Kane all year, Parking McD, Drai, other players down the stretch. Of note there's no other time where McD and Drai were off the lineup this many games down the stretch. Sure they were banged up with undisclosed condition. But they were getting rest.

This year is somewhat reminiscent to 1990 Oilers. A non stellar regular season and 2nd place in division and 5th place in standings in a then 21 team league. (This would equate to roughly 8th place today in a 32 team league, very similar) That year the OIlers had usual players going but didn't look like any world beater. Then they got the Kidline, they found goaltending in Ranford, and that team struggled immensely in first round against Winnipeg but once they got on a roll it was a wagon. By SC final the club was unstoppable polishing off the Bruins in 5 games even though Bruins had the best season in the league.
The other comparable is that I've often said that KK/Coffey are the best coaches we've had since Muckler. Period.



This playoffs Oilers started off rocky struggling with the Kings, then found a decent goalie, and then got rolling. The team are currently on a 7W 1L run and are walking games.

But suddenly everybody is rowing. The only real difference from regular season is getting Kane back, and also having Walman. but also consider not having Ekholm. So this club shouldn't be inordinately better than the regular season. Unless the whole club was simply playing possum.

Lets do some individual contrasts. As mentioned in regular season we only had 3 players with 50 or more pts. Suddenly in playoffs we have 9 players on that kind of heater and several of them looking remarkably different than they did all season.
In regular season we only had 3 players with 25 or more goals. Drai, Hyman and McD in that order. Suddenly in playoffs we have so many hothands now with 9 players on a 25 or greater goal pace.

Players that have significantly elevated are Perry, Brown, Henrique Janmark savvy veterans that had to have been saving it all for playoffs. All 3 have been going off like machine guns suddenly in games here or there potting and producing. Its like this is our "Kid line" haha, this season except in hockey respects its Senior Citizens this time with Perry leading the way at age 40.

A primary reason I was saying "this dog won't hunt" all year (and my prognosis was 2nd or third round Oilers exit ftr) I was basing that on a bunch of old players cannot play an 82 game season and playoffs balls out. That they would run out of gas. What I hadn't predicted is how many of the players really were playing possum just lying low starting with guys like McD and Hyman. Really the only way you would get blow the doors off energy from this club, right now, is if they had all taken it fairly easy on regular season and Only Drai went hard all year and now he looks a bit gassed (although still playing huge quiet role like last night in a shutdown performance.

View attachment 1035079

The one thing though, still, is goaltending. The org ought to have acquired insurance in this position. Didn't have to be any elite goalie, Just somebody competent in case of injury or goalie struggles. Stu took the advice though, he simplified his game, stayed in net, didn't overcomplicate or overplay or go sliding around.

The org did though get a lot of insurance in the roster at other positions. We have more capable D now than we can dress and this even without Ekholm. So org gets big credit on this. Klingberg another one that at age probably didn't have tons of games left in him but can be good in limited games usage for playoffs. Walman has been better than I thought. Booch has returned to form. Kulak has gone back to playoff Kulak. At forward not much changed. We got Frederic but he's still not found his game and still may be injured. But of course we got Kane back which is huge. But we got so many forwards last night we parked Arviddson and again J Skinner and have Jones and Ryan in the reeds somewhere as well. We parked Kapanen all playoffs and last night he was a sparkplug, so was Stecher. so when guys get tired we have plug ins this post season.

I liked this so much I read it twice!

You have said many times that the team has ridden McDrai too hard through the regular season, and where we sit now is pretty strong evidence you were right. But it goes right down the entire lineup. I thought the Kings looked tired toward the end of last series, and last night we may have started to see that with Vegas as well. All of a sudden we seem to be the club that’s cruising while the opponent is the one that’s battling. The shoe seems to be on the other foot this season doesn’t it?

We’re not even through the second round yet so probably the less said the better for now. But it’s hard not to be just a little excited by what we’ve seen so far.
 
It can be as simple as a veteran team just isn't good for the grind of a regular season but can rise to the occasion in the playoffs. Players like Hyman, Nuge, and Henrique were saving a lot of energy in the regular season because it didn't matter. Also why risk injuries for these meaningless games that will hurt your performance when it matters?

Plus yes, it was obvious that we were saving Kane for LTIR usage and to debut in the playoffs, and we were quick to scratch players for injury whenever we could, because the games didn't matter

There have been a lot of teams who won it all after giving up on regular season success. Tampa, Florida and Washington are recent examples of teams who followed this path and won the cup.
 
I said all year wait for the playoffs. The regular season hasn’t been meaningful for these guys in a while. It starts with McDavid he knows the one thing missing from cementing his name as an all time great is a cup. Coming as close as we did last year and not winning left a bitter taste. They don’t want to experience that again and at this point they have so much experience they know to pace themselves during the season and give it all when the games start to matter in the spring.
 

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