Possibility of Muzzin and/or Brodie left unprotected in the expansion draft?

[Sweet Leaf]

So trade him when Sandin reaches his projection if that's the case.

He has a no trade clause. Only way to move him is if Seattle claims him or he agrees to waive. Same with Brodie.

 

[Tak7]

Agreed with this, though I think Seattle take Dermott. Even if they have an abundance of D, Dermott has more value than Kerfoot IMO, and they can make trades.

That's the main reason why I think they take Kerfoot over Dermott (there's going to be so many better D available to them during the draft), but you may be right.

Either way, I think the Leafs are going to be OK during expansion.

 

[LeafGrief]

1. Biggest reason imo for the difference in ice time is Dermott is on the 3rd pairing with Bogo and Holl is on second pairing with Muzzin. We don't know if Holl would be ahead of Demott on the depth chart of Dermott played the right side like Holl does.

2. I'm not underrating Muzzin. He's a very good defencemen. Nazem Kadri was a great center and we traded him for non hockey reasons too. The cap is a bitch.

3. IMO Brodie is less likely to be left unprotected for this reason. IE Org less certain on Liljegren long term than Sandin.

4. And you know this how? You think that clause is there because the org anticipated one or both shitting the bed yet NEVER considered the option and likelihood that Dermott, Holl, Sandin and Liljegren would ever develop to a point where the org deemed those contracts an expensive luxury they could replace from within? This is irrational. I'm not saying it's going to happen or the way things will go down but to never think the org considered this is wrong imo.

1. That is not how hockey team's work. Look at the Lightning, they're a pretty good team right? Their top3 defense are Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev, in that order. They're all LHD and carry their own pairing. You can see that here: Team Line Combinations - Daily Faceoff Justin Holl doesn't play 9 minutes a game more because he's right handed.
2. Cap space is for having good players. Good players like Jake Muzzin. And we didn't trade Kadri for the cap space, ffs. We signed Kerfoot to a deal that's 1m less. That trade was about Barrie and unfortunately it blew up in our face.
3. Okay. Neither is going to be exposed though.
4. I know it in the same way that you know " The organizational "hope" at the time was the young guys would make these signings redundant in due course and they negotiated for that contingency." I looked at the facts and made a guess. I think it's pretty freaking unlikely that they structured contracts to get outs on 5m defenders because we had some guys in the AHL who looked pretty good. I don't really care what the organization considered, I'm sure they considered your possibility, but both Brodie and Muzzin have been excellent therefore they will not be exposed. It's really that simple. We're not going to expose good players on purpose when we're trying to win a cup.

He has a no trade clause. Only way to move him is if Seattle claims him or he agrees to waive. Same with Brodie.

Boy, it's a good thing he's our #2 and still amazing then eh?

 

[Tak7]

For the record I think there's little chance both are exposed and a pretty good chance one is exposed. Some further supporting points after reading through.

We scratched our heads at the term given out in the Hutchinson & Engvall deals, before we realized they were thinking ahead to expansion.

They didn't sign Brodie / extend Muzzin, and give them NMCs, just to try and push them out the door because of expasion.

1. I'm surprised, given our cap situation, how many of you think giving up young cheap talent on D with upside like Dermott and Holl is a way more palatable decision. Dubas and Keefe love these kids and for good reason.

Holl having another 2 years, at just $2 million, as a top 4 Dman on a cap strapped team in a flat cap world, is exactly why they'll protect Holl and forego the 7/3/1 protection requirement.

With Sandin & Liljegren in the pipeline, and a wealth of bottom pairing Dmen available in free agency every year (Bogosian), its understandable if they see Dermott as expendable. He hasn't really shown anything to suggest that he isn't anything other tham a bottom pairing guy so far. You don't lose a Muzzin / Brodie / Holl, off a team that is in "Win now mode", for upside and potential.

3. They like Liljegren. We like Liljegren. It's not unfathomable to project him as a top 4 defencemen in the next couple of years and again he's getting mature now. Again he's a young cheap option for a team in need of young cheap options.

Liljegren could easily be Dermott's replacement as a bottom pairing guy come next year. He was the team's main prospect trade chip heading into the deadline - it wouldn't surprise me if he's flipped in the off-season, but regardless, he also makes Dermott somewhat expendable.

 

[apollo678]

Having those 2 contracts switch from NMC to NTC is team friendly as it gives the team more options for the expansion draft. So I can totally see why Dubas would want the option.
But do I see him exposing either of those two guys because he is OK with losing either one? No way.

You negotiate as many options as you can get at the time of the contract signing so that you can use them if you need to. In this case both players have lived up to their contracts so I don't see why Dubas would choose to expose.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Was it Dubas not wanting to move Dermott for Weegar?
Or Florida not wanting to move Weegar for Dermott?
Do you just assume all GMs are lining up to give us better assets for our players?

This has to be one of the stupidest things Dubas has done as GM

 

[Sweet Leaf]

The reality is the cap forces teams into moving off guys they and the fans don't want to move off. We're going to lose guys we don't want to lose. We'll all argue about which players we should and could lose in the meantime.

One poster in this thread makes a case for moving Reilly as being our best long term move within the cap constraints. Again...something that would never come up in a non cap world.

There are no easy choices long term. It seems to me with Sandin and Lily coming, the cap being a going concern, Reilly needing to be resigned after 2022, something is going to break on D personnel wise that will surprise us one way or the other sooner than later and I'm betting on sooner.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The reality is the cap forces teams into moving off guys they and the fans don't want to move off. We're going to lose guys we don't want to lose. We'll all argue about which players we should and could lose in the meantime.

One poster in this thread makes a case for moving Reilly as being our best long term move within the cap constraints. Again...something that would never come up in a non cap world.

There are no easy choices long term. It seems to me with Sandin and Lily coming, the cap being a going concern, Reilly needing to be resigned after 2022, something is going to break on D personnel wise that will surprise us one way or the other sooner than later and I'm betting on sooner.

This is da truth ... but always remember da best teams keep an abundance of defensive depth around esp come playoff time when experience says it is needed for teams with long Cup runs .. you hardly ever have a forwards issue but many teams incl our Leafs had defensive issues like last year

 

[Arthur Morgan]

This has to be one of the stupidest things Dubas has done as GM

ahh they are just rumors. I dunno man
Friedman has pretty good sources but not all of it happens or were even in talks at all. just rumors
maybe at the time Dubas was trying to sell AJ for more than he was worth and felt it wasn't fair value.
who knows. maybe it turns out that Florida just straight up didnt wanna trade him unless it was over payment or just a test to see the strength of the market.

 

[Menzinger]

1. Biggest reason imo for the difference in ice time is Dermott is on the 3rd pairing with Bogo and Holl is on second pairing with Muzzin. We don't know if Holl would be ahead of Demott on the depth chart of Dermott played the right side like Holl does.

2. I'm not underrating Muzzin. He's a very good defencemen. Nazem Kadri was a great center and we traded him for non hockey reasons too. The cap is a bitch.

3. IMO Brodie is less likely to be left unprotected for this reason. IE Org less certain on Liljegren long term than Sandin.

4. And you know this how? You think that clause is there because the org anticipated one or both shitting the bed yet NEVER considered the option and likelihood that Dermott, Holl, Sandin and Liljegren would ever develop to a point where the org deemed those contracts an expensive luxury they could replace from within? This is irrational. I'm not saying it's going to happen or the way things will go down but to never think the org considered this is wrong imo.

The problem with the Kadri comparison is that Muzzin is the teams best defensive D man. Kadri at the time was the #3 centre.

Losing him creates a hole that's not going to be replaced by rookies

 

[Menzinger]

This has to be one of the stupidest things Dubas has done as GM

It would mean no Brodie. Likely wiill remain a hotly debatable"what if" depending on how accurate one views the rumors to be

 

[seanlinden]

Having those 2 contracts switch from NMC to NTC is team friendly as it gives the team more options for the expansion draft. So I can totally see why Dubas would want the option.
But do I see him exposing either of those two guys because he is OK with losing either one? No way.

You negotiate as many options as you can get at the time of the contract signing so that you can use them if you need to. In this case both players have lived up to their contracts so I don't see why Dubas would choose to expose.

Pretty much this.

It's also important to remember the "dynamic" that's created by the fact that a 4th defensive spot costs you 3 forward spots.

When Muzzin signed his deal, it was to be the team's #2 defeneman to Morgan Rielly. It was also a deal that had the potential to turn bad given his age & style of play. At the time, they had Travis Dermott who was viewed as high upside.

Let's say hypothetically, the Leafs had a really important 5th forward under contract, and Travis Dermott really elevated his game, and the Leafs went out and got a really good right-shot guy, and Muzzin's game took a bit of a tail off. Yes, a lot of IFs, but all of a sudden that NMC means your protecting a guy who hasn't lived up to expectations, and losing an important member of your team.

Fast forwarding to today... and most of those things haven't come to fruition. The 5th best forward under contract is Alex Kerfoot, and I think they're absolutely comfortable losing him. Travis Dermott hasn't really elevated his game, and Muzzin has been rock-solid, so there's little reason to believe that the Leafs will exercise the "out" they had with Muzzin for the ED.

Sure, they went out and got a right-side defender in TJ Brodie, and had one emerge in Justin Holl; but they've got the flexibility to protect 4D.

Similarly for Brodie, the Leafs needed to maintain the flexibility to be able to protect more than 4 forwards if they had to, and needed the ability to not protect Brodie if he wasn't working out in Toronto. They don't need to protect 4 forwards, and Brodie has absolutely worked out in Toronto.

--------

At the end of the day, it's going to be Dermott or Kerfoot, and I honestly don't think the Leafs really care which one, as I'd suspect whomever doesn't get taken by Seattle is likely going to be traded.

The Leafs need to free up cap space, and Kerfoot is by far the easiest way to do it. They need to free up a spot to get one of Sandin/Liljegren into the lineup, while Dermott is going to be looking for a raise from his ELC-money.

Once the expansion draft is done and a few teams lose their 4th or 5th best defencemen, the idea of offer sheeting Dermott to the tune of $2m X 2-3 years; and giving up a 3rd round pick, is going to make a lot of sense.

 

[DaWatcher]

Let me preface this by saying I love Muzzin, Holl, and Brodie; however, I am a numbers guy. They are entering the downside of their careers on the wrong side of 30. Muzzin has been injured before. Brodie has had injury problems in the past. Holl is a late bloomer, but lately his play has become unspectacular.

My goal would be to keep the youth we have so far developed. Ideally I would keep Dermott.

In terms of unprotected players I would list Holl, and Kerfoot. I think we could even retain Holl with a late round draft pick. I like Kerfoot, but his salary makes him expendable considering we need to re-sign Hyman and potentially a starting or at least 1B goaltender going into the off-season.

 

[Havoc]

This has to be one of the stupidest things Dubas has done as GM

Brodie > Weegar. You would really go back in time and undo Brodie to bring in Weegar?

We'll see this easy when it's back to 82 game normal schedule.

Canes have smacked the panthers and panthers are .500 against the bolts. Panthers would have second last goals against in our division (well third, canucks have lots of games in hand). Probably way worse than 141 goals against if they were in our division. Our division has so many snipers.

They've been beating up on the wings and jackets etc. all season long. Weegar is either actually really good or the most over rated D right now due to the division setup. I'm not willing to roll the dice and risk losing Brodie to find out which one is true.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Brodie is the best Dman on the Leafs. Muzzin is #2. No chance they are unprotected lol. Brodie has been outstanding this year.

 

[Ashdown2]

Brodie is the best Dman on the Leafs. Muzzin is #2. No chance they are unprotected lol. Brodie has been outstanding this year.

agreed .... there is a 0 % of ths happening.

just give seattle dermott, kerfoot and engvall and get back some draftpicks, because out cupboards are empty for next year.

 

[sxvnert]

0% either of those two are left unprotected. Dermott is the most likely player who will be selected by Seattle since Holl will be protected.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Brodie is the best Dman on the Leafs. Muzzin is #2. No chance they are unprotected lol. Brodie has been outstanding this year.

Agree with this take.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Both are too valuable.