[POLL] Is Toronto going to make it out of the first round?

[TheBeastCoast]

perhaps some Bruin injection will help get them past round

Goaltending will be their downfall AGAIN.

Goaltending has been a strength. It is more likely scoring that will hold us back if anything does.

 

[MCR74]

Goaltending has been a strength. It is more likely scoring that will hold us back if anything does.

Stolarz has been fantastic. I guess people see what they want to see.

 

[AvroArrow]

Stolarz has been fantastic. I guess people see what they want to see.

It's dudes that haven't seen a game since 2019 still posting nonsense like that, just goes to show how little they know

 

[Golden_Jet]

In the 8 games that Murray and Hildeby played they let in 26 goals.

Combined Woll and Stolarz have a 2.41 GAA which would’ve been 19 goals in those 8 games.

They also lack depth beyond their top 5 D so any injury to those guys and they become quite a bit weaker defensively.

Games missed McCabe 14, Tanev 7, OEL 3 some of which overlapped. And Carlo wasn’t added until the deadline.

you can say that about most teams, when they put in AHL goalies, I recall Soogard letting in 7 for Sens one game and 4 or 5 another.
All teams will have bad games over 82.
Injury wise that doesn’t look to bad for leafs defenseman wise. Zub missed 25 games on his own.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Every year I think it might be the year they break through. Until they do, I'm not betting on them.

 

[jbeck5]

In the 8 games that Murray and Hildeby played they let in 26 goals.

Combined Woll and Stolarz have a 2.41 GAA which would’ve been 19 goals in those 8 games.

They also lack depth beyond their top 5 D so any injury to those guys and they become quite a bit weaker defensively.

Games missed McCabe 14, Tanev 7, OEL 3 some of which overlapped. And Carlo wasn’t added until the deadline.

Ottawa has had moments of bad goaltending and injuries too.

Sogaard has a 5.24GAA lol

 

[AvroArrow]

Ottawa has had moments of bad goaltending and injuries too.

Sogaard has a 5.24GAA lol

I think you missed the point

The point was, the OP that he was responding to, pulled the Leafs overall goals against record, ignoring the games the 1G/2G didn't play

Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to evaluate Stolarz/Woll based on what our AHL goalie did when he got called up

It's like trying to say Matthews/Tavares can't produce, by pulling up stats up Kampf/Laughton

 

[jbeck5]

I think you missed the point

The point was, the OP that he was responding to, pulled the Leafs overall goals against record, ignoring the games the 1G/2G didn't play

Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to evaluate Stolarz/Woll based on what our AHL goalie did when he got called up

It's like trying to say Matthews/Tavares can't produce, by pulling up stats up Kampf/Laughton

I think you missed the point.

The conversation about goaltending and defense came up when a Leafs fan said the Leafs are drastically better in all positions and therefore will win easily.

Both teams have had callups play poorly...both teams have dealt with injuries...both teams improved at the deadline...so how are the GA so close between the two teams if defense and goaltending are drastically in Toronto's favour??? Every reasoning given ( A- callups dragging down GA , B- injuries, and C- improving after the deadline) also all apply to both Ottawa and Toronto...so we're left still waiting for an explanation that only applies to Toronto as to how they could be so much better in defense and goaltending but allow more goals???

So far, every reasoning also applies to Ottawa, therefore doesn't successfully explain how Toronto could be better defensively without it showing in GA stat.

 

[AvroArrow]

I think you missed the point.

The conversation about goaltending and defense came up when a Leafs fan said the Leafs are drastically better in all positions and therefore will win easily.

Both teams have had callups play poorly...both teams have dealt with injuries...both teams improved at the deadline...so how are the GA so close between the two teams if defense and goaltending are drastically in Toronto's favour??? Every reasoning given ( A- callups dragging down GA , B- injuries, and C- improving after the deadline) also all apply to both Ottawa and Toronto...so we're left still waiting for an explanation that only applies to Toronto as to how they could be so much better in defense and goaltending but allow more goals???

So far, every reasoning also applies to Ottawa, therefore doesn't successfully explain how Toronto could be better defensively without it showing in GA stat.

For the record I don't think goaltending is drastically in our favor. At best it's a wash, Ullmark is a proven star.

But it's the empty net goals against and extremely poor play of AHL goalies. You can't be seriously trying to attribute that to the actual team that the Leafs are going to be icing in the playoffs lol

 

[jbeck5]

For the record I don't think goaltending is drastically in our favor. At best it's a wash, Ullmark is a proven star.

But it's the empty net goals against and extremely poor play of AHL goalies. You can't be seriously trying to attribute that to the actual team that the Leafs are going to be icing in the playoffs lol

When did I?

All I've been clearly saying is how could a team be drastically better on defense and goaltending while allowing more goals against. Either something doesn't add up...which is the idea I'm challenging...or perhaps the original assessment that Toronto is drastically better on D and goalie was wrong, and I'm right to question it?

So either:

A) is there a factor that were overlooking that proves that Toronto is noticeably better in defense and goaltending? (that isn't a wash for both teams, such as 1) poor callups, 2)injuries, 3) improvement at deadline)

Or

B) the original assessment from the leaf fan was wrong?

So for question A, if you can't use excuse 1,2, or 3 that also apply to Ottawa, is there potentially another reason that can't also be applied to Ottawa?

 

[Golden_Jet]

I think you missed the point

The point was, the OP that he was responding to, pulled the Leafs overall goals against record, ignoring the games the 1G/2G didn't play

Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to evaluate Stolarz/Woll based on what our AHL goalie did when he got called up

It's like trying to say Matthews/Tavares can't produce, by pulling up stats up Kampf/Laughton

The post you quoted also listed Sens AHL average goals against when he played. It’s a wash.

Also when empty net goals are removed for both teams, it’s basically a wash.
3 goals different on the totals for the year.

 

[AvroArrow]

When did I?

All I've been clearly saying is how could a team be drastically better on defense and goaltending while allowing more goals against. Either something doesn't add up...which is the idea I'm challenging...or perhaps the original assessment that Toronto is drastically better on D and goalie was wrong, and I'm right to question it?

So either:

A) is there a factor that were overlooking that proves that Toronto is noticeably better in defense and goaltending? (that isn't a wash for both teams, such as 1) poor callups, 2)injuries, 3) improvement at deadline)

Or

B) the original assessment from the leaf fan was wrong?

Since you missed the point for the like the 3rd day in a row

Looking at their total goals against, and not taking empty net goals or when they had an actual AHL goalie in net, into context doesn't make sense. That's why you're confused here

Try looking at the goals against when Stolarz/Woll are playing and exclude empty net goals, it'll give you a much more accurate idea of where they stand (statistically) as a team in goals against

It's just not smart or accurate for that matter to try and evaluate a team simply by looking at a stat sheet and ignoring whether or not the actual starting goaltenders were in net, or if there was a goalie in net at all

 

[BradyTkachucky]

As the 2025 playoffs commence, the Toronto Maple Leafs are set to face the Ottawa Senators in a first-round matchup that, on paper, heavily favors Toronto. Here's a breakdown:


1. Offensive Firepower


Toronto's top-six forwards—Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares—provide a potent mix of scoring and playmaking. The addition of Max Domi, who re-signed with the Leafs after a productive season, adds depth and versatility to their forward lines.


Ottawa's offense, while promising with players like Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle, lacks the depth and consistency found in Toronto's lineup.


2. Defensive Stability


The Leafs' defense, bolstered by the acquisitions of Brandon Carlo and Chris Tanev, offers a balanced mix of experience and physicality. Carlo's presence adds stability to the blue line, complementing Toronto's defensive strategy.


Ottawa's defense features talent like Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson but lacks the depth and playoff experience of Toronto's defensive corps.


3. Goaltending Edge


Anthony Stolarz has taken over as Toronto's starting goaltender, entering the playoffs on a six-game winning streak. His recent performances have provided the Leafs with confidence between the pipes. Ottawa, on the other hand, acquired Linus Ullmark in hopes of stabilizing their goaltending situation. While Ullmark has shown promise, his ability to handle playoff pressure remains untested with the Senators.


4. Experience and Depth


Toronto's roster is rich with playoff experience, featuring a mix of seasoned veterans and emerging talents. This combination provides both skill and resilience, essential for deep postseason runs.


Ottawa is a team on the rise, but many of their key players are relatively inexperienced in playoff settings. This lack of experience could be a significant factor in high-pressure situations.


Conclusion


While the Senators have made strides in their development, the Maple Leafs combination of offensive depth, defensive stability, goaltending confidence, and playoff experience positions them as the clear favorites in this series.


Prediction: Leafs in 5.

 

[AvroArrow]

The post you quoted also listed Sens AHL average goals against when he played. It’s a wash.

That should also be excluded

Honestly though, blindly looking at stats and trying to rationalize which team is better isn't smart period. Eye test is always the best.

I think the Senators have the best defenceman between the two teams, Sanderson. But overall I like the Leafs 6 D-men as a whole a lot better than Ottawa's.

Goalies I think are pretty much a wash, you can give a slight edge to Ullmark since he's got the Vezina, but with how Stolarz has played this year it's very close.

I like the Leafs team defence as a unit a lot better, it's been our biggest strength all year.

 

[jbeck5]

Since you missed the point for the like the 3rd day in a row

Looking at their total goals against, and not taking empty net goals or when they had an actual AHL goalie in net, into context doesn't make sense. That's why you're confused here

Try looking at the goals against when Stolarz/Woll are playing and exclude empty net goals, it'll give you a much more accurate idea of where they stand (statistically) as a team in goals against

It's just not smart or accurate for that matter to try and evaluate a team simply by looking at a stat sheet and ignoring whether or not the actual starting goaltenders were in net, or if there was a goalie in net at all

I'm not missing that point. I'm telling you it's irrelevant and applies to Ottawa too.

You have yet to come up with a reasoning that explains it without it being a reasoning that applies to both teams.

You point to bad goaltending when you had an AHL goalie. We had bad goaltending with an AHL goalie and our backup...to the point we played our 3rd stringer over our backup because he was so bad...so counting the backup would also be bad.

Woll has allowed 108 goals in 41 starts.
Stolarz has allowed 71 goals in 31 starts.
That's 179 goals allowed on your goalies in 72 starts. That's 2.49GAA.

Ullmark has allowed 106 GA in 43 starts. That's 2.47GAA.

(These exclude empty net goals by the way...only include goals scored on the actual goalie)

So that means Toronto when having Woll or Stolarz in nets allows 2.49GAA.

Ottawa when ullmark in nets allows 2.47 GAA.

So this eliminates your callups...and yet Ottawa still allows less goals per game....


So how is it that Toronto has drastically better defense and goaltending if they allow more goals that Ottawa when the teams good goalies are in nets?

See, it's still you who's missing the point. Perhaps you can ask someone else for help understanding, because I'm struggling to lay out the issue for you, it seems. How else can I explain the question....

 

[jbeck5]

That should also be excluded

Honestly though, blindly looking at stats and trying to rationalize which team is better isn't smart period. Eye test is always the best.

I think the Senators have the best defenceman between the two teams, Sanderson. But overall I like the Leafs 6 D-men as a whole a lot better than Ottawa's.

Goalies I think are pretty much a wash, you can give a slight edge to Ullmark since he's got the Vezina, but with how Stolarz has played this year it's very close.

I like the Leafs team defence as a unit a lot better, it's been our biggest strength all year.

I've excluded AHL goalies and excluded empty net goals. Only included the goalies likely to see action (woll + stolarz + ullmark)

The Leafs duo: 2.49GAA
Ullmark: 2.47GAA

So this takes care of the call up or backup or AHL excuse or empty net excuse...

So if the Leafs have drastically better D and G, why do the Leafs starters allow 2.49 GAA while the sens starter allows less GA at 2.47GAA.

I'm not seeing any stats that indicate that the Leafs have noticeably better D and G which is what I'm objecting to, which is what this whole conversation is about.

 

[AvroArrow]

I'm not missing that point. I'm telling you it's irrelevant and applies to Ottawa too.

You have yet to come up with a reasoning that explains it without it being a reasoning that applies to both teams.

You point to bad goaltending when you had an AHL goalie. We had bad goaltending with an AHL goalie and our backup...to the point we played our 3rd stringer over our backup because he was so bad...so counting the backup would also be bad.

Woll has allowed 108 goals in 41 starts.
Stolarz has allowed 71 goals in 31 starts.
That's 179 goals allowed on your goalies in 72 starts. That's 2.49GAA.
(These exclude empty net goals by the way...only include goals scored on the actual goalie)

Ullmark has allowed 106 GA in 43 starts. That's 2.47GAA.

So that means Toronto when having Woll or Stolarz in nets allows 2.49GAA.

Ottawa when ullmark in nets allows 2.47 GAA.

So this eliminates your callups...and yet Ottawa still allows less goals per game....


So how is it that Toronto has drastically better defense and goaltending if they allow more goals that Ottawa when the teams good goalies are in nets?

See, it's still you who's missing the point. Perhaps you can ask someone else for help understanding, because I'm struggling to lay out the issue for you, it seems. How else can I explain the question....

I appreciate you effort in pulling those stats (genuinely)

Like I said, I don't think we have drastically better goaltending. At best it's a wash, probably a slight edge to Ullmark if we're being honest

As for defence, the Leafs blue line depth is much better, better 2-way forwards and a stronger team defensive game

I think Sanderson is the best D-man in this potential series, but after that I would take Carlo, Tanev, McCabe. Rielly and Chabot are a wash to me, guys are good offensively but make bonehead plays defensively

You're not gonna find it on a stat-sheet but watch the leafs team commitment to a 2-way game, checking has been much better, Matthews has been great on the PK this year as well

As a complete unit, I take Toronto's team defence all day


Offensive - Toronto
Defense - Toronto
Goaltending - Ottawa

Really hoping we get this series in round 1, would be great for the game/league

 

[NyQuil]

Everything starts over again at 0 once that first playoff game begins anyway.

 

[Mrb1p]

Probably not until they lose the Big loser, or I mean the Big papi.

 

[jbeck5]

I appreciate you effort in pulling those stats (genuinely)

Like I said, I don't think we have drastically better goaltending. At best it's a wash, probably a slight edge to Ullmark if we're being honest

As for defence, the Leafs blue line depth is much better, better 2-way forwards and a stronger team defensive game

I think Sanderson is the best D-man in this potential series, but after that I would take Carlo, Tanev, McCabe. Rielly and Chabot are a wash to me, guys are good offensively but make bonehead plays defensively

You're not gonna find it on a stat-sheet but watch the leafs team commitment to a 2-way game, checking has been much better, Matthews has been great on the PK this year as well

As a complete unit, I take Toronto's team defence all day


Offensive - Toronto
Defense - Toronto
Goaltending - Ottawa

Really hoping we get this series in round 1, would be great for the game/league.

No worries and thanks for toning down the heat haha I will reciprocate by being more polite as well!

So If you give the edge to ullmark, shouldn't you be supporting my argument in response to the leaf fan that said Toronto has better goaltending? Why did you argue against me and not against him, who I was objecting to?

So you think the edge ullmark has over will/stolarz was enough to makeup for the defensive edge you think the Leafs have over the sens to make for that similar GA stat?

I wonder if you're downplaying zub and Jensen's contributions....for example, chychrun got traded for Jensen and sens fans are extremely happy...surely that must be a hint at how good defensively Jensen has been for the sens if they were happy to trade him for a D that just signed for 8 million. Not saying Jensen is an 8 million dollar d...but maybe just maybe, he's also in the ballpark of Carlo, tanev, McCabe...same with zub. They're very reliable guys who can contribute on a top shut down pair.

I think you'll be impressed by the Sanderson-zub, Chabot-jensen pairings. They compliment each other very well.

I can appreciate the Leafs have taken a commitment to playing defense and 200ft hockey...but to say that without noticing the same about Ottawa would be short sighted to say the least.

The Leafs allowed 263 GA last year...down to 228 this year. That's reducing 35 goals(thought should be closer to 30 after the last couple games)

The sens allowed 281 GA last year...down to 225 this year. That's reducing goals by 56... Though should be closer to 50 when the season is done.

So I can definitely appreciate you saying the Leafs improved big time defensively...and though Ottawa started from a much worse defensive team, it should be acknowledged or noted that Ottawa has improved by much more defensively, to the point where they now have less GA than the Leafs.

So sure, I can see how the Leafs improved their commitment to 200 foot hockey...but I'm still not seeing how they improved it by more than the sens, or how their current level is ahead of the sens...

Why can't we say they're very close or a wash defensively and goaltending...the big difference is offense. The Leafs have the ability to run of the score while the sens have the ability to get shut out here and there. THAT'S the statistical difference.

So I think you should have been focusing your energy on arguing with the leaf fan about whether the Leafs have noticeably better D and G then arguing with me who objected that notion.

 

[Random Comment]

If Ottawa can stay out of the box they will win this series. On the backs of Sanderson and Ulmark.

 

[AvroArrow]

No worries and thanks for toning down the heat haha I will reciprocate by being more polite as well!

So If you give the edge to ullmark, shouldn't you be supporting my argument in response to the leaf fan that said Toronto has better goaltending? Why did you argue against me and not against him, who I was objecting to?

So you think the edge ullmark has over will/stolarz was enough to makeup for the defensive edge you think the Leafs have over the sens to make for that similar GA stat?

I wonder if you're downplaying zub and Jensen's contributions....for example, chychrun got traded for Jensen and sens fans are extremely happy...surely that must be a hint at how good defensively Jensen has been for the sens if they were happy to trade him for a D that just signed for 8 million. Not saying Jensen is an 8 million dollar d...but maybe just maybe, he's also in the ballpark of Carlo, tanev, McCabe...same with zub. They're very reliable guys who can contribute on a top shut down pair.

I think you'll be impressed by the Sanderson-zub, Chabot-jensen pairings. They compliment each other very well.

I can appreciate the Leafs have taken a commitment to playing defense and 200ft hockey...but to say that without noticing the same about Ottawa would be short sighted to say the least.

The Leafs allowed 263 GA last year...down to 228 this year. That's reducing 35 goals(thought should be closer to 30 after the last couple games)

The sens allowed 281 GA last year...down to 225 this year. That's reducing goals by 56... Though should be closer to 50 when the season is done.

So I can definitely appreciate you saying the Leafs improved big time defensively...and though Ottawa started from a much worse defensive team, it should be acknowledged or noted that Ottawa has improved by much more defensively, to the point where they now have less GA than the Leafs.

So sure, I can see how the Leafs improved their commitment to 200 foot hockey...but I'm still not seeing how they improved it by more than the sens, or how their current level is ahead of the sens...

Why can't we say they're very close or a wash defensively and goaltending...the big difference is offense. The Leafs have the ability to run of the score while the sens have the ability to get shut out here and there. THAT'S the statistical difference.

So I think you should have been focusing your energy on arguing with the leaf fan about whether the Leafs have noticeably better D and G then arguing with me who objected that notion.

The reason I quoted you was because at first you took the entire GAA, without considering who was in net + empty net goals, after you pulled those stats up it showed that Ullmark had a slightly better goals against stat than our starters

It's one of those eye-test things for me, if we do end up playing in a series you'll see it for yourself. I think our blue line is a lot deeper and far more experienced, and I think the impact Matthews/Tavares/Marner will have defensively is going to be a series changer.

It's not just the blue line, it's the complete team defence, I just don't think the Sens forwards are as good in their own end as Toronto's are.

I've told multiple posters on our own boards that we shouldn't be under estimating Ottawa, Ullmark looks like he's heating up at the right time and they got a young hungry team and IIRC you guys won the season series. It doesn't necessarily translate to the palyoffs always, but should be noted.

In my opinion, our team defence is much stronger than Ottawas, when you compare team D + goaltending between both teams, as a whole I like the Leafs a lot better. Just goaltending, edge Ottawa.

20 of those goals against were on the empty net, so 206 goals against a goalie this year

13 goals against were on an empty net last year, so 250 against a goalie last year

That's a 44 goal difference, obviously still 2 games to go.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Probably not until they lose the Big loser, or I mean the Big papi.

I expect Mitch Marner to step up before nostrils does , guy has no pulse

 

[Mrb1p]

I expect Mitch Marner to step up before nostrils does , guy has no pulse

You'd think that paying your 3rd best player 14 millions ISNT a good idea, lol.

 

[AvatarAang]

this thread is now the most commented thread in the Stanley cup forum - 22 pages so far and the next highest thread has 15 pages.

The leafs are the most popular team in the nhl and it’s not even close.