Poll: Based on the first 14 games, Where do you think we finish now?

[Wats]

Cannot believe only one other person (in addition to me) voted bottom 3. Are people so delusional?

Currently you have the 1st line playing lights out, the defense playing well vs expectations and the goalies are hot.
None of those will continue for 82 games.

The young D will hit a wall in December/January.
Montembault has a 0.930 save %. This will drop dramatically throughout the season.
The 1st line will be good but I think they will slow down a bit which would mean a few extra loses.

It's more expecting the worse. The fact the ended last the year before was only possible with Ducharme's tank magic.

 

[Nicko999]

Caufield is the best natural goal scorer since Lafleur or Rocket Richard. And Suzuki is Jacques Lemaire. There will be no slow down there.

The Goalies are playing over their head. But the young Ds are really that good. Sure, it was unforeseen. I would love a Top-3 pick, but I really don’t see it at all.

Caufield better than Richer even... amazing! Let' see Caufield having a 50 goal season first before making those absurd claims.
Suzuki is shooting at a ridiculous 27%. There will be a regression.

And it's not about how good the young D-man are, it's about the grind of an NHL season. Going from juniors to pros is hard and usually you hit a wall in the middle of the season.

Not even 20 games in yet. I will be sure to bump this thread when we are the 32nd team at the end of the season.

 

[Stoneburg]

These kinds of polls should only be taken after 20 games, not 14.

 

[salbutera]

This team is running on 1 line. The day they take off for 5-6 games or even if the goalies play for 25percent less better
They will go down

Lots of truth ..

I’d only caution where teams are in the standings at US Thanksgiving is where they usually end up +/- a couple of spots historically - and a team in playoff position has rarely fallen out. Habs are currently 2-pts out of last wild card spot and Thanksgiving is 12-days away

 

[Habs]

now that Columbus lost Werenski, I'm sure they are a lock for Bedard. We have had such an easy schedule with awful teams, going to get nasty after christmas. We will finish bottom 10

 

[Sorinth]

Cannot believe only one other person (in addition to me) voted bottom 3. Are people so delusional?

Currently you have the 1st line playing lights out, the defense playing well vs expectations and the goalies are hot.
None of those will continue for 82 games.

The young D will hit a wall in December/January.
Montembault has a 0.930 save %. This will drop dramatically throughout the season.
The 1st line will be good but I think they will slow down a bit which would mean a few extra loses.

The simple answer is that there are lots of other bad teams out there so even if this is a hot streak and we go back to sucking like last year it will be hard to outtank the other bad teams. Do you not remember the angst last year every time we won a game and people thought we would fall out of the bottom-5?

For reference, last year we ended up with a P% of 0.335, 3rd last was at 0.366. This year there are currently 5 teams under that 0.366 number, and 3 teams under our 0.335. So even if we were as bad as last year we could easily end up 4th.

 

[Walrus26]

Even with regression to the mean, this team is not bottom 3-bad this season - the competition is just too fierce.

If Suzuki, Caufield and Ghule miss half a season each with injuries, we're drating top 3.

 

[Kennerback]

Even with regression to the mean, this team is not bottom 3-bad this season - the competition is just too fierce.

If Suzuki, Caufield and Ghule miss half a season each with injuries, we're drating top 3.

We already have 7 wins 3 wins more than all the bottom 5 teams. Not only are we looking fine but we need to suck enough to make up the lead the bottom teams have on us. No Ducharme this season. Time to stick the fork in the tank. Some people in this thread are having trouble with acceptance.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

6-10

 

[Just this once]

I'll keep the bottom 5 prediction. It's more wishful thinking than anything, the .400 to .500 range is the most likely. so probably in the 8 to 12 range, something along those lines. I just don't care about the season if that's the case, it's a lost year.

Last season, the team broke down because Danault was the one holding it together quite literally. Now it seems Suzuki will replace him in that regard, so overall that effect is gone. Then the Ducharme effect is gone, that guy was terrible, not sure why people wanted him.

On top of that, I think Petry was a negative, so now that he is gone, it's a plus, just like Drouin will be a plus if he leaves this year. This being said, some good players are gone as well.

So we have basically one great line so far, and then more or less nothing. No decent PP or PK. An unproven defense, but that have done as good as last year, so it's a wash defensively, and no starter goalie.

So overall they should be better in theory than last year, and it shows in the way they play. How much better is the issue. Not good enough for a playoff spot for sure. It takes .600 and even with their good start, they aren't there, but close. They would also need a positive or neutral goal differential and they are -1 right now, and even if they the first line was producing more reasonably, they would only be around -10. Give Montembault a few extra goal, they could have been around -12/-13, which is enough for a fifth spot or just about, so it's still possible, just less likely than in the beginning.

 

[Scriptor]

Caufield better than Richer even... amazing! Let' see Caufield having a 50 goal season first before making those absurd claims.
Suzuki is shooting at a ridiculous 27%. There will be a regression.

And it's not about how good the young D-man are, it's about the grind of an NHL season. Going from juniors to pros is hard and usually you hit a wall in the middle of the season.

Not even 20 games in yet. I will be sure to bump this thread when we are the 32nd team at the end of the season.

Not even 20 games in yet. I will be sure to bump this thread when we AREN'T the 32nd team at the end of the season.

There, I fixed it for ya!

 

[Scriptor]

I'll keep the bottom 5 prediction. It's more wishful thinking than anything, the .400 to .500 range is the most likely. so probably in the 8 to 12 range, something along those lines. I just don't care about the season if that's the case, it's a lost year.

Last season, the team broke down because Danault was the one holding it together quite literally. Now it seems Suzuki will replace him in that regard, so overall that effect is gone. Then the Ducharme effect is gone, that guy was terrible, not sure why people wanted him.

On top of that, I think Petry was a negative, so now that he is gone, it's a plus, just like Drouin will be a plus if he leaves this year. This being said, some good players are gone as well.

So we have basically one great line so far, and then more or less nothing. No decent PP or PK. An unproven defense, but that have done as good as last year, so it's a wash defensively, and no starter goalie.

So overall they should be better in theory than last year, and it shows in the way they play. How much better is the issue. Not good enough for a playoff spot for sure. It takes .600 and even with their good start, they aren't there, but close. They would also need a positive or neutral goal differential and they are -1 right now, and even if they the first line was producing more reasonably, they would only be around -10. Give Montembault a few extra goal, they could have been around -12/-13, which is enough for a fifth spot or just about, so it's still possible, just less likely than in the beginning.

How is it a lost year development-wise when it's the kids carrying the load and learning in the process, all in a winning environment that shows how keeping the daily process going actually pays off?

With all due respect, what is your understanding of hockey and building a winner if the only thing that matters to you is how high a draft pick you land by finishing as bad as possible?

If Montreal picks in the 8th to 12 range, we'll be ecstatic about the impact player we picked, even if it doesn't end up being Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli (my personal favourite whom I'd even pick before Bedard).

The draft is that deep in the top-15, with ten pivots as legitimate candidates for the top-10, including 4 beyond Bedard and Fantilli who can also bring a physical element on top of a highly skilled game.

There's a serious RHD prospect for the top-10 in Cam Allen and a promising power winger from Finland in Kasper Halttunen in or around the top-10.

There's a lot to love between 8th and 12th, plus, the key to the 2023 draft, where Montreal already has Florida's unprotected pick, on top of their own pick, is what HuGo can do by the 2023 draft when it comes to acquiring one or more 1st round picks, protected or not.

If HuGo land a late 1st round pick for Edmundson, with Matheson back and the youngsters earning their wings on the left side, we won't even feel a sting.

Do HuGo trade Monahan if he stays healthy and produces, or do they try to extend him at a decent term for a decent cap hit?

Blasphemy, you might say, but a healthy, productive, extended Monahan would represent the addition of a top-10 talent that is already developed and confirmed as an impact player.

I don't believe in the wishful thinking that produces handshake deals where we trade Monahan for a boatload of assets coming back and still get to re-sign him as an UFA in the offseason. So, it's extend or trade and I'm personally fine with either scenario if he proves he can remain healthy and produce!

I'd be happy if we traded him because he would surely land us a 1st round pick and an interesting prospect. If Toffoli got us that, surely a big-bodied C who is good in the F/O circle (54.65%) can reap as much, no?

On the other hand, with Dach finding a comfortable landing on the RW alongside Suzuki and Caufield on the first line, Monahan would provide the type of offensive C that Dvorak just isn't for the continued development of our more offensive, top-6 prospects in the coming years. That, for the progression of the young forwards, is not negligible. Therefore, the argument to extend Monahan is not completely ludicrous, despite the potential return on a trade.

The key is to add as many top-10 talents t the roster as possible, not to get as many late first round picks as possible.

With a pick between 8th and 12th, we might also land an impact C like Dvorsky who might have slipped since he won't be showcased on the international stage with Slafkovsky and Mesar this season.

Otherwise, with a pick between 8th and 12th, Florida's unprotected 1st round pick and another pick we would have acquired for Edmundson in the first round, plus our own 2nd round pick between #40 and #44, there's surely a way to move up at the draft (not within the top-5, surely, but maybe between 5th and 8th by packaging our pick between 8th and 12th, the better 1st round pick from another team and our 2nd round pick?

There's plenty of things to be excited about, even if Montreal picks between 8th and 12th.

Your supposed disinterest under this scenario is a farce!

 

[Just this once]

How is it a lost year development-wise when it's the kids carrying the load and learning in the process, all in a winning environment that shows how keeping the daily process going actually pays off?

With all due respect, what is your understanding of hockey and building a winner if the only thing that matters to you is how high a draft pick you land by finishing as bad as possible?

All I said is I don't care about the season if they are to just not make the playoffs.
At least if they end up bottom, there is something to hope for.

People watch games no matter what, it's not my case.
It's got nothing to do with team building, but logically, a better pick can't hurt and would make the rebuild faster and probably better in quality, and then I will watch more. Right now I only wanted to see how the new guys were doing, what they looked like. I will probably take a break for the rest of the year and just look if they lost and the stats, because the games are not exciting to me, not worth my time. But it's fine if you feel different, no need to write an essay on team building.

 

[ArtPeur]

Cannot believe only one other person (in addition to me) voted bottom 3. Are people so delusional?

Currently you have the 1st line playing lights out, the defense playing well vs expectations and the goalies are hot.
None of those will continue for 82 games.

The young D will hit a wall in December/January.
Montembault has a 0.930 save %. This will drop dramatically throughout the season.
The 1st line will be good but I think they will slow down a bit which would mean a few extra loses.

It's not about what this team will do. It's also about other teams. It's already hard to outtank Anaheim, Vancouver and San Jose (+ Ottawa with their injuries)

The Habs have a really easy November schedule. I'm expecting December to be much tougher

 

[Habs Halifax]

I honestly believe this St. Louis coached Habs team will fight tooth and nail for a playoff spot.


Sadly, we won’t be in the bottom rung of the ladder with a high percentage probability of drafting either Connor Bedard or that Russian phenom.

I think confidence/momentum is a huge part to each season. Fans will always get emotionally attached to the previous season but I saw this Habs being a better team this season a mile away. Lots of Habs fans laughed at it when I said we will finish bottom 5-10 or bottom 8-12 range. Lots of them were thinking bottom 5 "guaranteed". I always find those absolute type comments comical.

I feel for the Jets. It's been a slow downhill road since Big Buff retired and Trouba trade. Ripped your strong D with great offensive forwards apart. They were really not replaced on the back end.

In terms of Bedard, I'm willing to bet that someone from 3-8 range wins one or both of the draft lotteries. Back to back seasons where last place won the lottery. That's not likely to happen the 3rd year in a row.

6-10

Bottom 5-10 was my gut feel all summer long (with an outside chance at bottom 8-12).

What do I think today? I voted bottom 6-10 but man... they keep me wondering if it's going to be higher.

 

[Habs Halifax]

All I said is I don't care about the season if they are to just not make the playoffs.
At least if they end up bottom, there is something to hope for.

People watch games no matter what, it's not my case.
It's got nothing to do with team building, but logically, a better pick can't hurt and would make the rebuild faster and probably better in quality, and then I will watch more. Right now I only wanted to see how the new guys were doing, what they looked like. I will probably take a break for the rest of the year and just look if they lost and the stats, because the games are not exciting to me, not worth my time. But it's fine if you feel different, no need to write an essay on team building.

Not saying you have done this but the ones who said they don't watch the games and then try to play fan expert on where we stand or what players are doing are the problem. Credibility is weak in this case.

 

[Wats]

Really hope people don't start flexing too much, look at Detroit and Buffalo... Really doesn't take much to go to the bottom this early in the season.

 

[Habs Halifax]

These kinds of polls should only be taken after 20 games, not 14.

Poll ends Nov 24th. Free to change your vote all the way up to that date. Nov 23rd will be the 20 game bud.

Are you not happy that we started well and you wanted a bottom 5 finish? Is that why you want it to be 20 games and not 14?

Really hope people don't start flexing too much, look at Detroit and Buffalo... Really doesn't take much to go to the bottom this early in the season.

Lots can happen yet but I think if we stay away from major injuries, this team will continue to gain more confidence/momentum IMO.

 

[Lshap]

I think confidence/momentum is a huge part to each season. Fans will always get emotionally attached to the previous season but I saw this Habs being a better team this season a mile away. Lots of Habs fans laughed at it when I said we will finish bottom 5-10 or bottom 8-12 range. Lots of them were thinking bottom 5 "guaranteed". I always find those absolute type comments comical.

I feel for the Jets. It's been a slow downhill road since Big Buff retired and Trouba trade. Ripped your strong D with great offensive forwards apart. They were really not replaced on the back end.

In terms of Bedard, I'm willing to bet that someone from 3-8 range wins one or both of the draft lotteries. Back to back seasons where last place won the lottery. That's not likely to happen the 3rd year in a row.



Bottom 5-10 was my gut feel all summer long (with an outside chance at bottom 8-12).

What do I think today? I voted bottom 6-10 but man... they keep me wondering if it's going to be higher.

Same here. Before the season I predicted the Habs picking 8-12th in 2023 because, even after last year's debacle, this team still has leftover DNA from its 2021 playoff run. Some people dismiss that playoffs as a fluke without considering that the fluke may have been the 2021/22 last-place finish.

Right now, the roster is a total mystery-box of rookies and kids. Even Montembeault is just 26. We really have no idea what this team is becoming.

Really hope people don't start flexing too much, look at Detroit and Buffalo... Really doesn't take much to go to the bottom this early in the season.

Very true.

One thing that's different about the Habs' rebuild is how defence-heavy it is. Four rookie D?? That's unheard of! Most other rebuilds focus on forwards, which inevitably leave the team exposed on the back end, like building a fancy house on a bad foundation. Colorado and Tampa were smart/lucky enough to find elite talent on defence; their success speaks for itself. Buffalo got Dahlin.... but they have wonky goaltending. If Montreal allows Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj to develop together, and brings Barron and Mailloux along at the right speed, they'll have the foundation of a solid team. Still need that #1 goalie....

 

[BJCOLLINS]

we've mostly played awful hockey teams , what a stupid schedule. That Toronto team was hot garbage to start the year. they Arizona and the Penguins who have been brutal. Wins against the blues and sabres, wings were all well deserved, but then the Canucks walk in and its another win.

We really have played 3 good teams thus far, wait till we start playing some solid clubs on occassion and see where we stand. The losses are going to start piling up to be sure.

This is a dream schedule for Montreal, nothing mostly bad teams through Dec
View attachment 606084

wow that is a strange schedule….we must spend a lot of time in the eastern conference after the new year. I wonder if finishing last triggers a loser schedule the following year??

 

[morhilane]

wow that is a strange schedule….we must spend a lot of time in the eastern conference after the new year. I wonder if finishing last triggers a loser schedule the following year??

I don't think so. Nobody expected some of the teams the Habs already faced this year to be that bad.

The real skewing in the Habs schedule is West vs East teams, which I suspect is a revenue thing.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think so. Nobody expected some of the teams the Habs already faced this year to be that bad.

The real skewing in the Habs schedule is West vs East teams, which I suspect is a revenue thing.

I said this summer that I avoid playing the "This team will be better and that team will be worse than us". Let this be a lesson for some fans to learn while others don't learn.

Each season brings new circumstances. Reality