Post-Game Talk: Point taken

[Dazed and Confused]

Arvidsson should be tried with McDavid, Skinner should be moved back onto the top 6 and given some looks on the top unit PP here and there in place of RNH as a reward for sticking with it and not tuning out. A lot of veteran players would let it get ugly if they were treated as he has been.

Knob is being overly stubborn.

Even as is, Jeff Skinner is scoring at about a 16 goal rate (27 goal rate the last 9 games) from the bottom 6 almost exclusively, I mean that's actually not bad relative to how players generally produce here from the bottom 6.

We haven't in the McDavid era had many guys score 16 goals with bottom 6 minutes exclusively.

It would've been nice to add Saad, but I wouldn't be surprised if he looked at the Jeff Skinner situation here and got scared off.

It's one thing I've noticed with the lines this season: There will be some rotation of guys in the top 6, but everyone's near exclusively with Drai OR McDavid.

RNH, Hyman, Brown with McDavid
Podz, and Arvidsson with Drai.

Outside of a single game here or there, there hasn't been a winger that's gotten a chance with both, to see where they fit better. Hell Skinner hasn't gotten a chance with either since about game 10, the only time he's been in the top 6 is with RNH at centre.



It's annoying because we've seen some flashes. For example, Arvidsson doesn't really click with Drai, but he did look good next to McDavid and Hyman. Plus Arvidsson's current role is one I think Skinner would actually be better suited for.

RNH's best game over the last little stretch came on the 3rd line at centre. Great, that would give Henrique someone to play with.

Arvidsson-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Drai-Skinner
Rico-RNH-Kap/Brown
Janmark-Philp-Perry/Kap/Brown

Hell Podz has been struggling recently, I'd have no issue also moving him down and giving Rico a look next to Drai for a few games too.

 

[K1984]

It's one thing I've noticed with the lines this season: There will be some rotation of guys in the top 6, but everyone's near exclusively with Drai OR McDavid.

RNH, Hyman, Brown with McDavid
Podz, and Arvidsson with Drai.

Outside of a single game here or there, there hasn't been a winger that's gotten a chance with both, to see where they fit better. Hell Skinner hasn't gotten a chance with either since about game 10, the only time he's been in the top 6 is with RNH at centre.



It's annoying because we've seen some flashes. For example, Arvidsson doesn't really click with Drai, but he did look good next to McDavid and Hyman. Plus Arvidsson's current role is one I think Skinner would actually be better suited for.

RNH's best game over the last little stretch came on the 3rd line at centre. Great, that would give Henrique someone to play with.

Arvidsson-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Drai-Skinner
Rico-RNH-Kap/Brown
Janmark-Philp-Perry/Kap/Brown

Hell Podz has been struggling recently, I'd have no issue also moving him down and giving Rico a look next to Drai for a few games too.

I like the top line, but I'd think about moving Hyman to LW not Arvidsson. Might help cash a few more being on his off wing too. However, I don't think Skinner works at all with Draisaitl and Arvidsson would be better served in an energy role.

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Henrique - Draisaitl - Perry
Janmark - RNH - Arvidsson
Podkolzin - Philp - Brown

Skinner gets a look with real players, Driasiatl gets a new look on the left side and seems to like playing with Perry, third line has speed on the wings and will be able to bring forecheck pressure, Podkolzin needs to be tried as a pure energy player because that's what he'll probably need to be in the playoffs.

For me Brown needs to start putting up or he needs to be out of the lineup. He's been rancid 5v5 lately to the point where his strong PK work is starting to not be worth keeping him in the lineup.

 

[Duke74]

The distortion on focus on the board so severe here that Drai was being blamed in the GDT thread for banging pucks off goal posts in a game he scored, and he just happens to be Rocket Richard again. Leon would seem to be the last one that should be blamed but..

Most of the club is snakebit.

I love Drai to death, but recently, he's been infected by the rest of the team's subpar finishing ability. Four goal posts the last three games, ten shots last game with just a goal to show for it...hopefully the silly tournament break gives him (and the rest of the team) a reset.

I like the top line, but I'd think about moving Hyman to LW not Arvidsson. Might help cash a few more being on his off wing too. However, I don't think Skinner works at all with Draisaitl and Arvidsson would be better served in an energy role.

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Henrique - Draisaitl - Perry
Janmark - RNH - Arvidsson
Podkolzin - Philp - Brown

Skinner gets a look with real players, Driasiatl gets a new look on the left side and seems to like playing with Perry, third line has speed on the wings and will be able to bring forecheck pressure, Podkolzin needs to be tried as a pure energy player because that's what he'll probably need to be in the playoffs.

For me Brown needs to start putting up or he needs to be out of the lineup. He's been rancid 5v5 lately to the point where his strong PK work is starting to not be worth keeping him in the lineup.

Ah, some fresh, creative thinking. If only Knoblauch would take his blinders off and try something different like that.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I like the top line, but I'd think about moving Hyman to LW not Arvidsson. Might help cash a few more being on his off wing too. However, I don't think Skinner works at all with Draisaitl and Arvidsson would be better served in an energy role.

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Henrique - Draisaitl - Perry
Janmark - RNH - Arvidsson
Podkolzin - Philp - Brown

Skinner gets a look with real players, Driasiatl gets a new look on the left side and seems to like playing with Perry, third line has speed on the wings and will be able to bring forecheck pressure, Podkolzin needs to be tried as a pure energy player because that's what he'll probably need to be in the playoffs.

For me Brown needs to start putting up or he needs to be out of the lineup. He's been rancid 5v5 lately to the point where his strong PK work is starting to not be worth keeping him in the lineup.

Can't argue with most of this, though I do disagree on Skinner not working with Drai. He didn't work with Drai and RV, primiarly because no one retrieved the puck on that line. But I think having Podz on the other wing solves that issue.

Imo Skinner style of actually waiting for the play to come to him vs. RV's jump into the middle of the play, pass the puck quickly, and generally try and cause chaos causes more mayhem for Drai and Podz vs. the opposition's defence, as he generally just throws the puck away. That's a more natural fit with McDavid and Hyman.


Also I think McDavid will have an aneurysm if he's between Hyman and Skinner. Both love to hold the puck and not pass it. You can have one of them on the line, but not both. (Kane's also very much in this category).


100% agree on Brown.

 

[TheTrashMan]

6 pages after a win

17 after a loss

I guess some people had a lot of saved Grady’s they couldn’t use before


Aka “i can call someone trash, but dont dare call me trash”

No go for it, I don’t care
I know I’m a good human being
I think you’re trash for even leaving this useless comment but opinions are like ass holes. Everyone has one and they stink!

 

[Missing smitty]

I love Drai to death, but recently, he's been infected by the rest of the team's subpar finishing ability. Four goal posts the last three games, ten shots last game with just a goal to show for it...hopefully the silly tournament break gives him (and the rest of the team) a reset.


Ah, some fresh, creative thinking. If only Knoblauch would take his blinders off and try something different like that.

Knoblauch clearly values defense above all else. He's obviously willing to sacrifice offense by putting Brown up on the first line...

 

[Drivesaitl]

I love Drai to death, but recently, he's been infected by the rest of the team's subpar finishing ability. Four goal posts the last three games, ten shots last game with just a goal to show for it...hopefully the silly tournament break gives him (and the rest of the team) a reset.


Ah, some fresh, creative thinking. If only Knoblauch would take his blinders off and try something different like that.

Banging howitzers off goalposts is hardly subpar finishing. For any other player the thinking would be wow that was close. For Drai is f***, why didn't you score that?

You know, its not like Drai is having trouble scoring this season. heh.

Knoblauch clearly values defense above all else. He's obviously willing to sacrifice offense by putting Brown up on the first line...

Sacrificing the remaining hairs on my balding scalp.

 

[harpoon]

They had every opportunity to increase their lead and didn't.

Haha. Listen to yourself. It’s embarrassing.

 

[Duke74]

Knoblauch clearly values defense above all else. He's obviously willing to sacrifice offense by putting Brown up on the first line...

I'm not sure how to feel about that. Team defense is incredibly important, especially in the playoffs, but we also need to score goals, something I feel we've really been struggling with despite the plethora of chances.

You know, its not like Drai is having trouble scoring this season. heh.

Overall, he's been great, but I'm seeing a concerning trend in the last three games.

 

[bucks_oil]

The oilers goalie coach pushed for Jack Campbell. I'm not sure they should be trusting anything coming from him...

Agree with this.. DONE w/ DUSTIN

From everything I can see (across probably ten guys now) he professes a blocking style which only works for huge and mobile… very old school (and hard to find)

The proprietary models do have more built into them options including the use of real time tracking. And yet the public models actually have been shown to give fairly similar results. Overall the public xG models to me look quite useful in the broad context. They are not meant to micro analyze individual events but rather as macro tools.

The problem is that if they aren’t built to model individual events but are summing up GSAA… how is that helpful

 

[bucks_oil]

A more realistic reliability model would look like three lines wired in parallel to a single line that is your goaltender - one with two guys (ie forward two forecheckers; best 2 of 8), one with one guy (F3, best 1 of 4), and one with two guys (ie your D). Alternatively - your three forwards weird in parallel wired to your D in series which is then wired to your goaltender in series.


If you were to run reliability calcs based on statistically simulated exponential decay or even relatively simple back of the napkin probability calcs - your system would clearly show that the goaltender is the weak link in the reliability chain and it's not even close.

To your first paragraph… I like this and agree… I was just making fun of you. As I’ve outlined separately, I believe in a minimum of two errors required to produce a GA. Everybody’s errors (except goalie) have redundancy and everybody’s errors can be erased by the next guy in the series… sometimes (though rare) even including the goalie.

To your second paragraph… this doesn’t pass the logic test and shows your personal bias. If goalies are the only ones that don’t have built in redundancy, than it would make sense that NHL goalies are selected because they make fewer mistakes than anyone else they competed with for the job… they are the ultimate perfectionist.

I actually think they make far less mistakes and are way more attuned to not taking risks, working within their physical capabilities and limitations, than most guys on the ice.

On the perfectionist scale:

Goalies > defensive defensemen > defensive centers > regular center > left wingers (since most are ex-C) > offensive D > gawd damn RW



I fully acknowledge the “creative, progressive, drive plays and goals” scale may be entirely different with goalies at the bottom. Makes sense right?

 

[bucks_oil]

Ya I recall that play (remember, I’m also a big DRW fan, so I might be clouded in my opinions of this entire game ). It was guaranteed-win night in my house!!

His entire career, his offensive play has been his calling card and his defensive play has been “average”. I’m thinking Paul “the defence whisperer” Coffey will need some time with him. There still seems to be a player in there.

Gee… why would you be a Det fan

I dunno if Coffey is the right guy to whisper much lol….

I was thinking about that play again this morning… I’d taken a gummy and was playing 3v3 on small ice with the best players from my Thursday league… every single guy that has been invited to that skate becomes a better team player… nowhere to hide and any lack of effort (it’s small ice, so stopping on the puck and two strides in your goalies direction is what wins games)…

Anyway… I’ve decided it was just exceptionally lazy. His only job was to box out and tie up a stick.

That doesn’t take any real effort at all… it’s f’n basic.

Maybe he was hypoxia in his first game after 18 months… but I will be watching

 

[iCanada]

To your first paragraph… I like this and agree… I was just making fun of you. As I’ve outlined separately, I believe in a minimum of two errors required to produce a GA. Everybody’s errors (except goalie) have redundancy and everybody’s errors can be erased by the next guy in the series… sometimes (though rare) even including the goalie.

To your second paragraph… this doesn’t pass the logic test and shows your personal bias. If goalies are the only ones that don’t have built in redundancy, than it would make sense that NHL goalies are selected because they make fewer mistakes than anyone else they competed with for the job… they are the ultimate perfectionist.

I actually think they make far less mistakes and are way more attuned to not taking risks, working within their physical capabilities and limitations, than most guys on the ice.

On the perfectionist scale:

Goalies > defensive defensemen > defensive centers > regular center > left wingers (since most are ex-C) > offensive D > gawd damn RW



I fully acknowledge the “creative, progressive, drive plays and goals” scale may be entirely different with goalies at the bottom. Makes sense right?

I don't think that's an example of bias - if a goaltender makes a mistake it's a goal.

If a forward makes a mistake, there's the D to fix it, and if the D makes the mistake, there's the goaltender to fix it.

It's inherent to the position. Probably over 90% of the time when a goaltender makes a mistake it's an automatic goal, and the other 5% of the time maybe a defender can make a miracle play - maybe. Every mistake another player on the ice makes there's atleast one other player, including the goalie, there to fix it.

I don't think that's a particularly wild take.

 

[bucks_oil]

I don't think that's an example of bias - if a goaltender makes a mistake it's a goal.

If a forward makes a mistake, there's the D to fix it, and if the D makes the mistake, there's the goaltender to fix it.

It's inherent to the position. Probably over 90% of the time when a goaltender makes a mistake it's an automatic goal, and the other 5% of the time maybe a defender can make a miracle play - maybe. Every mistake another player on the ice makes there's atleast one other player, including the goalie, there to fix it.

I don't think that's a particularly wild take.

My point is that goalies therefore get selected to make fewer mistakes.

Getting beat by a shot is not necessarily a mistake. So hoping for miracle saves is pointless.

Look for actual mistakes by the goalie and don’t talk about goals where they just get beat… that’s not a mistake and they aren’t there to save that one.

What they are there to do is stop stoppable shots, read the play (perfectly) and make the saves they physically can.

I personally think Skinner is sub-par physically and well above average intellectually/mistake-free… and big.

Those are the metrics: tactics, size and athleticism.

Smith was +athleticism, +size, -tactics.

Campbell was +athleticism, -size and -tactics.

Skinner is -athleticism, +size and +tactics

Pickard is +athleticism, -size and -tactics

I wish for all + on all obviously, but it would be great to have +athleticism, -size and +tactics… like prime Quick….

But it feels like Schwartz doesn’t even look at those guys. We skip over them in draft and continue to perpetuate this old school view of massive flawed goalies.

 

[Fourier]

Agree with this.. DONE w/ DUSTIN

From everything I can see (across probably ten guys now) he professes a blocking style which only works for huge and mobile… very old school (and hard to find)


The problem is that if they aren’t built to model individual events but are summing up GSAA… how is that helpful

In reality trying to model individual events is what's not useful. There are far too many of them to ever be able to do so. Your model would have to not only manage goals scored but also every save as well. That is because the impact of a goalie is not simply from the pucks that get by him but perhaps more so the ones that don't as well. We saw that in full color last night with the save that Woll made at the buzzer.

The xG models are intentionally macro focused. That is a feature not a bug. The difference between a Vezina winner and a backup is about 2 saves in 100. The simple sv% stat gives you a means of seeing which guy is making those saves. xG models refine this by recognizing that not all shots are created equal so as to further isolate the goalies role in the process. It's far from perfect but to have any real chance at meaning you need lots of samples over many different scenarios.

I have said this before but when you micro analyze a goal to assign blame what do you get out of that? Maybe you can say this goal was the goalies fault and this one was that guys fault or maybe you can assign weighted blame for mistakes that led to the goal. But so what. How does that help you determine if your guy was actually more likely to have stopped that puck regardless of the circumstance than someone else. To do that you need to look at players in all situations over extended periods and how they actually perform.

As I said some of the proprietary models actually add in some of the factors that you claim are important. But in the end that ends up not changing things much in terms of the output. That is not surprising because on whole unique events are not nearly as unique as they may seem.

Bottomline is this, if you want to know who is a good goal scorer you don't do that by analyzing each individual goal a guy scores to rate it in isolation for aesthetics while ignoring that total number that the player actually scores and the volume of chances he has.