Post-Game Talk: Point taken

You can algorithmically analyze millions of shot attempts and give them expected goal values in a couple of seconds.

If you tried to analyze those millions of shot attempts by looking at the tape and grading them manually, you not only would take an eternity, but could also inadverently introduce some bias / subjectivity.
There is a scorekeeper judging and recording each shot already. It’s already happening.

Toggling one more attribute would not be that difficult.

Yes there would be some bias subjectivity, but I’d rather have human judgement than no information at all and then conjour up (and blindly believe) info created by an algorithm.

Once we have real time puck tracking and teach AI how to discern a high difficulty save from a low difficulty save I may change my tune, but as it stands, having been explained the limitations of the current public models they are frankly useless. They can’t differentiate the most fundamental variable in save difficulty (did the goalie need to move quickly to get there or not).
 
I couldn't watch. How did Klingberg look?
I sort of guessed it

He was invisible, but with some bad defense. His skating and passing were very good. It was hard to see but some pundits made note of it. Soooo... imo he will capture his Dallas form. He has rust to shake and also has to learn and execute Knoblauch's system.
 
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I couldn't watch. How did Klingberg look?
Let me first frame my comments, he played his first game in over a year and Played his first game after significant hip surgery. He is also playing in a new system with a new players (he’s not coming back to his old team and teammates). All this creates questions…

But I thought he played very well. He clearly is an intelligent player and still has high end skills and on ice vision and sense to go along with his brains. He made some very good hard/firm passes to forwards to move pucks out of the D zone fast, he skated, swivelled and pivoted very well on his repaired hips.

On a few shifts he was first d back and had to take hits as he went to retrieve and he never shied away from the hits.

He is only going to get better with more games. I thought it was a very good start.
 
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Your own chart has expected goals at about 5-3. The actual goals were 2-2. Not sure how you're putting that on the goals. Sure, theirs was better and basically stole the game, but ours definitely did his job last night as well.
Despite Skinner doing well, I'd still like to see another goalie play behind our improved D systems. I still want to keep Skinner
 
It's okay. Skinner is a "good guy", so they'll keep starting him and keep him around through his continual mediocrity. Guy is and will always be a loser goalie, that gets out-duelled by names that theoretically shouldn't be in the same conversation as a starting goalie on a true cup contender.
 
Shame to lose this one after a great performance by Stu. Jeff skinner with a great overall game as well so he likely sticks in the lineup going forward.

Hopefully they realised they need more killer instinct when they have the lead and are dominating like they did in the first 30. Let's use this as incentive to pummel the leafs on Saturday.
 
You know if Skinner's save percentage started with a .8 it would've been posted ad nauseam in this thread by now.

He just finished the month of January with a .921 save percentage to follow his .913 in December. He's been good for a long while now.
Its about some sort of consistency and pattern. That's like like saying a sales guy tanks for a few months at dunder mifflin as a sales man. He picked it up for a bit so he's all good.
 
Detroit dead things are great at being no clutch down the stretch. So much panic in their game and you can see it everywhere in their turnovers. The 2nd goal was lol what are they even doing? As games become more important and sticks tighter this Red Wings team will blow it again. I mean look how terrible Debrincat alone was tonight. If I had that guy as a team mate I'd barf. Then they get Patrick Kane retirement tour coming back at some point. Wings didn't really impress me much. Most of the game I was wondering how they've been winning games. They give up so much.
Watching yesterday's game, one has to wonder how Edmonton manages to stay near the top of the league. Of course they have two of the best in the game, good goalie, and two good defenseman in Eckholm and Nurse. But, after that, not so much. I was not impressed. So the Oilers won in Detroit in OT, and lost in the s.o. yesterday. And they gave up a lot of chances for such a highly rated team. Unless they add defense by the TDL, no Cup in Edmonton this year.
 
Klingberg seemed to play a conservative game. Most of his passes were safe passes to Ekholm, and Ek led the play up ice.
 
It's okay. Skinner is a "good guy", so they'll keep starting him and keep him around through his continual mediocrity. Guy is and will always be a loser goalie, that gets out-duelled by names that theoretically shouldn't be in the same conversation as a starting goalie on a true cup contender.
they'll keep starting him cause he's got a .917 save percentage since December 1st

you picked an odd night to cry about him since he's the reason the Oilers even made it to OT and got a point
 
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It's okay. Skinner is a "good guy", so they'll keep starting him and keep him around through his continual mediocrity. Guy is and will always be a loser goalie, that gets out-duelled by names that theoretically shouldn't be in the same conversation as a starting goalie on a true cup contender.
Yeah, what a loser to only give up 2 goals and have a .941 sv% this game.

Meanwhile the offense couldn't score on the mighty Lyon. Do they love getting goalied by mediocre goalies? I remember they had trouble scoring on Mrazek and Vladar too.
 
Last 3 have been terrible games from EDM but they've still taken 5 of 6.

Guess that's what playing against bad teams gets ya
Meh, it's the Dog Days of the season. The Oilers are going through the motions right now ust like every team does at some point, Vegas is going through it too. They're the best team in the league since November 1st so they're doing just fine.

And for those crapping on Skinner. Maybe watch the game and not just look at shot totals, the Oilers were leaking Oil all night and Skinner came up big countless times to keep the Wings at bay. The Oilers also had a lot of chances, it was a wide open game both ways but I felt like Skinner made the tougher saves of the two goalies.
 
I couldn't watch. How did Klingberg look?
Let me first frame my comments, he played his first game in over a year and Played his first game after significant hip surgery. He is also playing in a new system with a new players (he’s not coming back to his old team and teammates). All this creates questions…

But I thought he played very well. He clearly is an intelligent player and still has high end skills and on ice vision and sense to go along with his brains. He made some very good hard/firm passes to forwards to move pucks out of the D zone fast, he skated, swivelled and pivoted very well on his repaired hips.

On a few shifts he was first d back and had to take hits as he went to retrieve and he never shied away from the hits. He is only going to get better with more games. I thought it was a very good start.
 
There is a scorekeeper judging and recording each shot already. It’s already happening.

Toggling one more attribute would not be that difficult.

Yes there would be some bias subjectivity, but I’d rather have human judgement than no information at all and then conjour up (and blindly believe) info created by an algorithm.

Once we have real time puck tracking and teach AI how to discern a high difficulty save from a low difficulty save I may change my tune, but as it stands, having been explained the limitations of the current public models they are frankly useless. They can’t differentiate the most fundamental variable in save difficulty (did the goalie need to move quickly to get there or not).
The proprietary models do have more built into them options including the use of real time tracking. And yet the public models actually have been shown to give fairly similar results. Overall the public xG models to me look quite useful in the broad context. They are not meant to micro analyze individual events but rather as macro tools.
 
Without getting into a heated debate, we are not talking about a uniform distribution of responsibilities here. The fact that there are 6 players on the ice does not imply that their potential responsibility for a goal against is equal. No matter what, the last line of defense is almost always the goalie. If he makes an error the result is probably a goal. If the right wing makes an error there are generally lots of potential remedies before a goal happens.

Yes, I know you are clever enough to know I was matching the sophistication of my argument to the post I was tongue-in-cheek responding to.

And you know I am clever enough and masochistic enough to know that nearly every single error I make ends up in the back of the net. But you also know that many more will make it into the back of the net, whether I make an error or not.

That's why goalies HATE errors, we bank 'em, we analyze them, we ruminate on them for days after the game ends... all of mine, even the ones you didn't see or won't agree to let me own, and many of yours too. And the standards are unreasonably high... that moment of self-doubt, where your brain says "I hope he doesn't shoot... here... f***" that's an unforgivable one, if you had time to doubt yourself you weren't really concentrating.

My personal attribution model, which dawned on me, with stoner's euphoria, during our 2006 run, and has been tested in real life obversational studies and 20 years of on-ice experimental testing ever since is summarized as follows:
1) It always takes at least two mistakes for a goal against - the two biggest mistakes prior to a goal are errors, worth discussing, the rest... there are usually more... not worth your present focus.
2) Two mistakes, back to back, will result in a goal against nearly 100% of the time
3) But mistakes can also be mitigated by strong team plays: a compensatory backcheck, a well played 2on1, a 10-bell save, etc.
4) In this way, I think about mistakes as having a large immediate impact, an echo which requires a compensatory response, and in ideal team-play-conditions they naturally dissipate and then disappear.
5) On any good team, you talk about mistakes such that they don't become systematic errors...
  • in real time to request help/coverage
  • immediately after goals "that's mine", "shoulda had that guy", "it would help if you" etc
  • At intermissions sometimes in hushed, vieled tones, other times with far more direct language
6) On good teams, physical mistakes (it was too fast, I was too slow, I stumbled, etc) are never errors, our physical limitations don't determine the outcome of the game... they exist, cannot be changed, and everyone's got 'em.
7) On good teams, what you focus on are mental errors, emotional errors, tactical errors... all of those are reasonably within our control.
8) Over time, teams that own their errors, make fewer of them and win more games
9) In broad strokes, you can tell the level of play a guy made it to/coaching they received/or generally their head for the game based on how they handle their own errors and those of their teammates
10) Sadly, even on good teams, with responsible teammates all around, you can almost always find that one prima donna who can't admit or adjust to their own errors. It's best to drop that guy before he ruins the dynamic, unless he's really, really good... in which case you move him to right wing and all silently agree to discount pretty much anything he ever says.

There you have it.
 
The proprietary models do have more built into them options including the use of real time tracking. And yet the public models actually have been shown to give fairly similar results. Overall the public xG models to me look quite useful in the broad context. They are not meant to micro analyze individual events but rather as macro tools.

Your a math guy... a stats nerd told me the general accuracy of the models are limited to about 85%. That's a lot of noise among that signal.

If I were a GM, that might be useful enough to spot a trend in my team game... but it wouldnt' be enough for me to overrule my coaches eye test or send my pro-scouts home when it comes to making decisions about individual players.
 
Meh, it's the Dog Days of the season. The Oilers are going through the motions right now ust like every team does at some point, Vegas is going through it too. They're the best team in the league since November 1st so they're doing just fine.

And for those crapping on Skinner. Maybe watch the game and not just look at shot totals, the Oilers were leaking Oil all night and Skinner came up big countless times to keep the Wings at bay. The Oilers also had a lot of chances, it was a wide open game both ways but I felt like Skinner made the tougher saves of the two goalies.
Skinner leaked in 2 goals and the Oilers stopped playing since. Sure Skinner played better in the game but he put the Oilers in a bad position in the first place
 
Let me first frame my comments, he played his first game in over a year and Played his first game after significant hip surgery. He is also playing in a new system with a new players (he’s not coming back to his old team and teammates). All this creates questions…

But I thought he played very well. He clearly is an intelligent player and still has high end skills and on ice vision and sense to go along with his brains. He made some very good hard/firm passes to forwards to move pucks out of the D zone fast, he skated, swivelled and pivoted very well on his repaired hips.

On a few shifts he was first d back and had to take hits as he went to retrieve and he never shied away from the hits. He is only going to get better with more games. I thought it was a very good start.

Agree with all of that, but I thought he seemed a little defferential on coverage... it seemed to impact the first goal against where he didn't engage the goalscorer and tie up his stick, despite being in perfect position to do so.
 
Watching yesterday's game, one has to wonder how Edmonton manages to stay near the top of the league. Of course they have two of the best in the game, good goalie, and two good defenseman in Eckholm and Nurse. But, after that, not so much. I was not impressed. So the Oilers won in Detroit in OT, and lost in the s.o. yesterday. And they gave up a lot of chances for such a highly rated team. Unless they add defense by the TDL, no Cup in Edmonton this year.
They're top 5 defensively this year. At most they add a depth defenseman.

Maybe do some more watching instead of fly by posting...
 
Skinner leaked in 2 goals and the Oilers stopped playing since. Sure Skinner played better in the game but he put the Oilers in a bad position in the first place

Neither of those goals were the least bit leaky. Both were deflected.

In particular Skinner (and Emberson for that matter) played that breakaway great and were victims of bad luck... Emberson's stick check changed trajectory of the puck. Skinner extending his leg to cover low-right opens his five hole, and unfortunately that's where Emberson's stick check directed the puck. It is physically impossible for Skinner to cover both at the same time.

In the shootout, you might want to take a 2nd look at Larkin's 7-hole goal, but then again Skinner's saves on the Draisaitl PK is the only reason we saw OT in the first place.
 

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