Value of: PLD's trade value this summer with 1 RFA year left?

[Habs Halifax]

Doubt the Jets trade PLD this season based on how they are playing. Looks like playoffs this season. However, what's going to happen this summer?

PLD recently said it's not out of the question he can stay with the Jets and resign but when I look at the direction, it looks like a rebuild or mini reset is in the future cards?

* PLD has one RFA year left
* Scheifele has 1 year in term left then UFA
* Hellebuyck has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Wheeler has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Ehlers has 2 years left then UFA
* Key parts signs past 2 more years are Connor and Morrissey

Based on structure on contracts with PLD first to extend (possibly), I think he still forces his way to UFA. If the Jets trade him this summer (Maybe draft day), what is his value?

Is Debrincat for the 7th pick close in value? Jets are not strangers to trading someone with one RFA year left that wants out... Trouba returned the 20th pick and Poink.

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[lomiller1]

Doubt the Jets trade PLD this season based on how they are playing. Looks like playoffs this season. However, what's going to happen this summer?

PLD recently said it's not out of the question he can stay with the Jets and resign but when I look at the direction, it looks like a rebuild or mini reset is in the future cards?

* PLD has one RFA year left
* Scheifele has 1 year in term left then UFA
* Hellebuyck has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Wheeler has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Ehlers has 2 years left then UFA
* Key parts signs past 2 more years are Connor and Morrissey

Based on structure on contracts with PLD first to extend (possibly), I think he still forces his way to UFA. If the Jets trade him this summer (Maybe draft day), what is his value?

Is Debrincat for the 7th pick close in value? Jets are not strangers to trading someone with one RFA year left that wants out... Trouba returned the 20th pick and Poink.

80-90 point big physical 2-way C have a lot more value than small scoring W. Debrincat also has a contract where the QO guarantees him 9+ million AAV on his next deal which would be an overpay, this further reduced his value relative to other similar quality players.

 

[Captain97]

Tbh any Dubois discussions are kind of tainted until we know if what he is saying is genuine or if he's saving face for the cameras.

It's been leaked/said to the media like 3 times he wants to play for the Habs so until new info comes it out ots kind of hard to value him correctly.

 

[branch]

80-90 point big physical 2-way C have a lot more value than small scoring W. Debrincat also has a contract where the QO guarantees him 9+ million AAV on his next deal which would be an overpay, this further reduced his value relative to other similar quality players.

Sorry but where has PLD scored 80-90 points in the past?

 

[Habsrule]

His value will be lower than what is expected. He has publicly stated that he wants to play for Montreal and even went to this past years draft held in Montreal in hopes that he gets traded there.

Teams will look at him as a pure rental and not as a player that the can re sign to a new contract.

 

[OrangePMD]

Without an extension, I don't think anyone would give an established young roster player like Pionk was in the Trouba trade. But even as a full season rental, he'd get top rental price, 1st +3rd + B-prospect.

Boston or Carolina could make sense.

 

[McJedi]

Doubt the Jets trade PLD this season based on how they are playing. Looks like playoffs this season. However, what's going to happen this summer?

PLD recently said it's not out of the question he can stay with the Jets and resign but when I look at the direction, it looks like a rebuild or mini reset is in the future cards?

* PLD has one RFA year left
* Scheifele has 1 year in term left then UFA
* Hellebuyck has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Wheeler has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Ehlers has 2 years left then UFA
* Key parts signs past 2 more years are Connor and Morrissey

Based on structure on contracts with PLD first to extend (possibly), I think he still forces his way to UFA. If the Jets trade him this summer (Maybe draft day), what is his value?

Is Debrincat for the 7th pick close in value? Jets are not strangers to trading someone with one RFA year left that wants out... Trouba returned the 20th pick and Poink.

This guy would be quite a rental at the deadline in 2024 as well.

1st in 2024 + 3rd + B+ prospect that was likely a first round pick in their draft.

If the deal was with the Flames, someone like Zary level.

 

[MDCSL]

Honestly if I’m the jets I trade him in the summer, after his stunt in Columbus and hinting he might want out I wouldn’t trust he’s going to keep up his play after signing a big ticket

 

[Captain97]

My trade prediction that if it is right I will be praised and if forgotten No one will remember.

Habs 2024 1st top 10 protected + Dvorak + Riley Kidney

For

PLD

 

[Djp]

Doubt the Jets trade PLD this season based on how they are playing. Looks like playoffs this season. However, what's going to happen this summer?

PLD recently said it's not out of the question he can stay with the Jets and resign but when I look at the direction, it looks like a rebuild or mini reset is in the future cards?

* PLD has one RFA year left
* Scheifele has 1 year in term left then UFA
* Hellebuyck has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Wheeler has 1 year left in term then UFA
* Ehlers has 2 years left then UFA
* Key parts signs past 2 more years are Connor and Morrissey

Based on structure on contracts with PLD first to extend (possibly), I think he still forces his way to UFA. If the Jets trade him this summer (Maybe draft day), what is his value?

Is Debrincat for the 7th pick close in value? Jets are not strangers to trading someone with one RFA year left that wants out... Trouba returned the 20th pick and Poink.

teams will not trade top 10 picks—especially 23 drsft.

most knowing it’s a top 10 trade we’re generally panic moves by GMs feeling they needed to win now.

trading for PLD comes the isdue of cap space— who even has it?

Ottawa, buffalo, and New Jersey have 2 centers on their team already. Anaheim have drafted top 10 centers in recent drafts.
Detroit, Chicago, Anaheim, arizona are possible….but they could be picking a top center in the draft. Most of thrm don’t have the trade pieces to do this.

 

[HabsQC]

They should try to go the Pacioretty/Stone way. Trade him to a team he wants to play with and have an extension in place. If he really wants to play for the Habs, I hope Kent Hughes doesn't bite and waits til he comes as a UFA.

 

[Habs Halifax]

80-90 point big physical 2-way C have a lot more value than small scoring W. Debrincat also has a contract where the QO guarantees him 9+ million AAV on his next deal which would be an overpay, this further reduced his value relative to other similar quality players.

The other angle to this is Debrincat had this season and one more RFA season in control so that was similar to Dubois last summer. You're right, 1 vs 1, Dubois has more value but it's altered with team control aspect where Dubois is one RFA year then UFA this summer.

I would expect it to be similar to Trouba. He had a 50 pts season and then traded for the 20th pick and Pionk.

Tbh any Dubois discussions are kind of tainted until we know if what he is saying is genuine or if he's saving face for the cameras.

It's been leaked/said to the media like 3 times he wants to play for the Habs so until new info comes it out ots kind of hard to value him correctly.

I think there would be a higher degree of probability he could re sign with the Jets if they had better team direction in terms of their contract structure/term for their core.

Dubois signing for lets say 7 or 8 years and then Jets go through a rebuild in 2/3 years? Something he and his agent would evaluate no doubt and ponder about. Doubt he wants to be part of rebuild or reset half way through his term.

 

[Habs Halifax]

My trade prediction that if it is right I will be praised and if forgotten No one will remember.

Habs 2024 1st top 10 protected + Dvorak + Riley Kidney

For

PLD

If the Habs trade a 1st, it's likely going to be the Panthers pick.... probably in the 10-18 range. Habs trading a future 1st with protection is too risky. Our direction is good but not that predictable. It could back fire into a lottery pick.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The other angle to this is Debrincat had this season and one more RFA season in control so that was similar to Dubois last summer. You're right, 1 vs 1, Dubois has more value but it's altered with team control aspect where Dubois is one RFA year then UFA this summer.

I would expect it to be similar to Trouba. He had a 50 pts season and then traded for the 20th pick and Pionk.



I think there would be a higher degree of probability he could re sign with the Jets if they had better team direction in terms of their contract structure/term for their core.

Dubois signing for lets say 7 or 8 years and then Jets go through a rebuild in 2/3 years? Something he and his agent would evaluate no doubt and ponder about. Doubt he wants to be part of rebuild or reset half way through his term.

More likely if he resigns it’s for 2-3 years not 7 or 8. The locker room is supposed to be much better under Rick. Who knows if he wants to go to mtl as badly right away. He could sign a short contract in Wpg or elsewhere and hope to go to mtl when they are ready to compete.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This guy would be quite a rental at the deadline in 2024 as well.

1st in 2024 + 3rd + B+ prospect that was likely a first round pick in their draft.

If the deal was with the Flames, someone like Zary level.

I think the Jets would move him at the draft or in the summer and they will know his intentions after the playoffs are done.

A full season vs rental at the deadline gets them a bigger return IMO. Rental price is likely a 20+ pick and prospect and trade on draft day might get the Jets a pick from 10-20 range and a prospect. Better % of hitting on someone in that range.

More likely if he resigns it’s for 2-3 years not 7 or 8.

Dubois won't sign for 2-3 years. He's going to take the 7 or 8 year deal and max out his AAV as much as possible. He's earned that right and his next contract sets him and his family for life.

If he wanted to sign the 2-3 year deal, he could have done that last summer.

 

[Crede777]

Trade him back to Columbus.

Winnipeg gets a good return.
Columbus gets a badly needed top-6 C.
PLD gets shown that pouting doesn't pay.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think the Jets would move him at the draft or in the summer and they will know his intentions after the playoffs are done.

A full season vs rental at the deadline gets them a bigger return IMO. Rental price is likely a 20+ pick and prospect and trade on draft day might get the Jets a pick from 10-20 range and a prospect. Better % of hitting on someone in that range.



Dubois won't sign for 2-3 years. He's going to take the 7 or 8 year deal and max out his AAV as much as possible. He's earned that right and his next contract sets him and his family for life.

If he wanted to sign the 2-3 year deal, he could have done that last summer.

Except that was unde Maurice and team didn’t look as good. He is smarter to sign a short deal now and 7-8 years later when he is older and last few years won’t be as good. So signing one more deal at 28.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Honestly if I’m the jets I trade him in the summer, after his stunt in Columbus and hinting he might want out I wouldn’t trust he’s going to keep up his play after signing a big ticket

Call me gullible but I do think he wants to play for the Habs... lets follow the timeline of events.

1) Habs shopping Subban before his NMC kicks in. Habs tried to get the 4th or 5th pick from the Oilers or Canucks but Blue Jackets ruin that plan by taking PLD 3rd ahead of Puljujarvi and Juolevi. I bet you Dubois thought he was close to being drafted by the Habs.

2) Asked for a trade out of Columbus. No doubt in my mind the Habs tried to trade for him and once again, Dubois likely pondered if he was going to be playing for the Habs. Jets offered Laine and Habs couldn't touch that offer.

3) First season for the Jets was very inspired hockey. Invisible in the playoffs against the Habs that year. Not the Dubois we have come to know.

4) Sucks it up and has a great 2nd season for the Jets. Then tells them he prefers to head to UFA but will honor his RFA years left. Also tells members around the Jets organization he would like to play for the Habs one day.

5) No doubt in my mind Gorton/Hughes talked to his agent when he was RFA last season. Jets and Habs likely talked trade but nothing developed. Dubois signs a 1 year deal vs a 2 year RFA deal.

Except that was unde Maurice and team didn’t look as good. He is smarter to sign a short deal now and 7-8 years later when he is older and last few years won’t be as good. So signing one more deal at 28.

It's not likely. You would not make that decision if you were him. His agent will advise against it. It's his time to cash in and you are thinking he won't? What happens if he gets injured in those 2-3 years?

Dubois is clearly going to sign with a team that has good direction and for 7 or 8 years. Gets to play for a team that is in the right direction and also gets to set his family up for life. I'd be shocked he don't choose this road.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Trade him back to Columbus.

Winnipeg gets a good return.
Columbus gets a badly needed top-6 C.
PLD gets shown that pouting doesn't pay.

Blue Jackets won't even offer anything. Why would they? He asked to be traded out and they are in rebuilding mode. What would be the point to have him play his RFA year with them and then leave for UFA?

 

[Snowman]

My trade prediction that if it is right I will be praised and if forgotten No one will remember.

Habs 2024 1st top 10 protected + Dvorak + Riley Kidney

For

PLD

Unlikely Winnipeg accepts a protected 24 first if that is all they are getting. They more than likely would look for an offer that includes a 23 first.

 

[57special]

He will get a deal to similar to Fiala, who is a better player, but Dubois is younger, and plays a more important position. So, essentially, two 1sts, or the equivalent. I am giving Faber the value of a first, because of how he has performed since being drafted.

I don't see WPG being excited about a return of a 2023 top 10 protected 1st only. PLD isn't prefect, but he is a young, big, top 6 C with one more year of team control, who is on a P/PG+ pace.

Add him to a C starved team like MN and they automatically become contenders. It just won't happen because of their cap situation.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Not sure why the Jets would trade him in the offseason unless there is an offer that is to good to pass (which I don't see coming).
There will be UFA centers available for teams with cap space, why not just go for another arbitration round and sell him at the deadline at 50%, should get a better return, because more teams could afford that.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Unlikely Winnipeg accepts a protected 24 first if that is all they are getting. They more than likely would look for an offer that includes a 23 first.

The habs could definitely trade a 23 first. They already own two of those, and they might have more if Monahan/Edmundson trades returns a 1st.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Unlikely Winnipeg accepts a protected 24 first if that is all they are getting. They more than likely would look for an offer that includes a 23 first.

I agree with this. Jets will look for a pick in 23 no doubt.

1st step is to allow the Jets and Dubois to go on a playoff run. Then go from there. If Dubois still says he wants to explore his UFA options or wants to be traded to the Habs (Trouba narrative), then we can talk on draft day.

Panthers could just miss the playoffs or just make it. So I would peg their pick to be in the 10-18 range. Lets say 10-20 as a safer bet. I'm assuming most agree with this. So yeah, a pick from 10-20 (will be known on draft day) and one more piece maybe. Starts with the Panthers pick and it's dependent on an extension in place.

Tricky part is if the Panthers miss the playoffs and win the lottery. Pick could be anywhere from 1-6 in that case. Not likely but possible. Not sure the Habs trade that pick in that case. I guess that depends on where our pick ends up. That could be 8-12 range.

 

[McJedi]

I think the Jets would move him at the draft or in the summer and they will know his intentions after the playoffs are done.

A full season vs rental at the deadline gets them a bigger return IMO. Rental price is likely a 20+ pick and prospect and trade on draft day might get the Jets a pick from 10-20 range and a prospect. Better % of hitting on someone in that range.



Dubois won't sign for 2-3 years. He's going to take the 7 or 8 year deal and max out his AAV as much as possible. He's earned that right and his next contract sets him and his family for life.

If he wanted to sign the 2-3 year deal, he could have done that last summer.

Agree. His max value is right before the 2023 draft. Get that Florida or Habs pick (whichever is higher, from the Habs) and take a dump contract like Hoffman or Arima to juice up the return.

Problem for the Habs now. If you’re trading for assets like PLD, your rich farm system gets attention and it gets raided. Much harder for Habs to win trades now because you have much to horse trade with. GMs know this and they hold the line on their demands. Call it the curse of good drafting.