We are not there yet but if the Habs enter in the playoffs, it will be against Washington if Ottawa don't choke. (Let’s just hope this post doesn’t jinx their playoff push.. ....)
Here are the numbers for Washington and the Habs since December 16th, and since February 22nd (the return of the Four Nations Cup).
I have a feeling some people might start sweating a little, because this isn’t exactly David vs Goliath — at least not the way the standings would suggest.
Habs :
Since December 16th :
28-14-6 – 154 goals for, 140 goals against (
+14)
Since February 22nd :
14-4-4 – 85 goals for, 82 goals against (
+3)
Washington :
Since December 16th :
28-13-7 – 162 goals for, 134 goals against (
+28)
Since February 22nd :
13-8-1 – 81 goals for, 71 goals against (
+10)
Montreal is heading into the playoffs with
nothing to lose — the exact opposite of Washington.
They’ve lost their starting goalie and are dealing with a few key injuries. The Habs, meanwhile, are mostly healthy, surging, and probably have
two of the hottest players in the entire NHL right now:
Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson since returning from the Four Nations break and add the best prospect in the entire league outside the NHL : Ivan "Le Terrible" Demidov
This is going to be a very interesting series. And to those predicting “Washington in 3” — let’s not forget what happened against
Toronto, shall we? Those kinds of takes just make the victory twice as satisfying when it happens.
So, for those with an
inferiority complex against the Capitals : You might want to reconsider — this series will be decided
on the ice, and
every inch will be hard fought.
P.S. The Habs currently rank
5th or 6th in the entire NHL since December 16th.
Yes, we’ll probably run out of gas at some point — whether it's fatigue, injuries, or Suzuki and Hutson coming back down to earth a bit. Guys like Armia and Anderson have been injured for months, and let’s be honest :
Montreal has no offensive depth. The Dvorak line will start to struggle at some point.
But the question is :
When will the magic fade?
Right now, the team
believes, and that’s a powerful thing.
Remember Toronto, Pittsburgh, or Washington during the
Halak spring run — things can shift
very quickly when the favorite starts to feel the ground shaking.
If the Habs can steal
just one game in Washington and come back to the Bell Centre tied 1-1,
the
pressure on the Caps will be enormous — and that’s where upsets are born.
Their coach will probably win the
Jack Adams with one hand tied behind his back,
but regular-season success doesn’t guarantee playoff glory.
Remember Boston just two years ago — they shattered every regular-season record…
and got bounced in the first round.
The
Ovechkin chase for 895 was their fuel all season. Now that the milestone is reached, we could see a
natural emotional dip — it’s human. The adrenaline will inevitably taper off.
- Alexei Protas is out for a few weeks.
- Matt Roy is dealing with a neck issue after a hit in the last game.
- Another player also left that same game after blocking a shot (I can’t recall who).
And most importantly:
Logan Thompson is injured.
Thompson has been phenomenal statistically, but more than that — the team
plays better in front of him:
- With Thompson: 31 wins in 42 games, averaging 4 goals per game
- With Lindgren: 18 wins in 35 starts, averaging 3 goals per game
That doesn't mean they’re doomed to choke — but given all the circumstances, I believe
Washington is the most beatable opponent the Habs could possibly face. Thompson and Lindgren have only 4 playoffs start each, 2-2 for the first one and 0-4 for the last one.
Montreal enters this series with
no pressure at all. For the Capitals, it’s the complete opposite.