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Playoffs Positivity Thread

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BergevinBurner said:
89 very well could be enough. It'd take one of the 4 teams were competing with to play just above 0.600 hockey for it not to be.

Detroit has the strongest strength of schedule in the entire league, so they're likely done. Islanders are 4th and they sold at the deadline, so I can't see them doing it. It's going to depend on what Columbus and the Rangers do in the homestretch.
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Do you actually believe the strength of schedule argument because I don't.
There are far too many variables that get overlooked.
Nothing can predict what a team will have in the tank or the effort they will put forth on any given night.
For me the exercise is very much a one game at a time proposition and take nothing for granted.
 
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It's awesome to see this team push to where they are today, slightly ahead of the pack fighting for the WC2 spot. The team has been playing some good hockey and they've gotten key plays when they've needed them. Lots of urgency and guys understanding their roles. I'm super impressed!

Slafkovsky, Newhook, Dvorak and Struble have stepped their games up notably recently.
 
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League parity is like a sine/cosine function where it's at its lowest when former contenders tear it down and ascending contenders reach their peak and at its highest when contenders exit their window and rebuilding teams are about to enter theirs. The massive reluctance to give more penalties this season because of the increased potency of power plays (a big reason for lower point total among league leaders) also drives parity as refs allow star players to get abused more

2021-2022 was The year of low parity in the Eastern conference and it has been trending toward max parity since. This season or the next one might be peak parity, then teams like the Pens especially will enter the season fully rebuilding. There are now 13 teams with 0.500 point percentage or over, last season it was 12, the one before it was 11. In 2021-2022, it was only 9

In these circumstances, the amount of points needed to make the playoffs is limited since more teams split a (relatively) limited number of possible points. In 2021-2022, the Caps were WC2 with 100 points, 89 might do it this season
 
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Rapala said:
Do you actually believe the strength of schedule argument because I don't.
There are far too many variables that get overlooked.
Nothing can predict what a team will have in the tank or the effort they will put forth on any given night.
For me the exercise is very much a one game at a time proposition and take nothing for granted.
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A perfect example to refute the strength of schedule argument is to look at what the Habs did in late demcember and January during the hardest part of their season. That's actually when they made their biggest push.

Besides, I think the scoreboard will be even more randomized down the stretch as top teams are more likely to rest certain guys if their spots are secured.... or just take their foot off the gas pedal with one eye on the playoffs.
 
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I'm absolutely blown away that we're actually in this spot. I really thought we were pretty much destined to end up in the 24th-28th range this year, and was ready to write the season off entirely after our poor start. Last night was the first Habs game I've truly cared about the outcome in almost 4 years. Awesome to see the guys elevate like this.
 
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JianYang said:
Someone is going to pick up the pace. 89 points is a very low bar.
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Teams just don't have the runway....

Max amount of pts teams can get if they win all their remaining games:
Rangers: 96 (they can't lose more than 3 games worth of points until season end to get 90 pts).
Isles: 95 (can't lose more than 2.5 games...)
Detroit: 93 (can't lose more than 1.5 games...)
Boston: 92 (can't lose more than 1 game...)
Jackets: 97 (can't lose more than 3.5 games...)

Habs: 101 (can't lose more than 5.5 games for 90 pts, requires playing for 0.566 over the last 15 games...doable) :D
 
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Rapala said:
Do you actually believe the strength of schedule argument because I don't.
There are far too many variables that get overlooked.
Nothing can predict what a team will have in the tank or the effort they will put forth on any given night.
For me the exercise is very much a one game at a time proposition and take nothing for granted.
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100%
Obviously nothing's set in stone and I'm not saying it can be used to predict any given game. It doesn't factor in injuries, fatigue, importance of the game to the teams involved, etc...

But if you have two "equal" teams and one has a strength of schedule of 0.600 and the others strength of schedule is 0.550, then over a large enough sample size you'll obviously see a clear trend of the team with the weaker schedule out performing the team with the harder schedule.
 
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HabzSauce said:
How did you get these numbers?

Habs can max out at 103. Wings and Rags at 98. Boston at 95....

I got different totals for every team lmao. Maybe I'm just way worse at math than I thought idk
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They're using points percentage. You're using total points. Montreal has 15 games left so a maximum of 30 points is available. Add the 73 points they have now & you have a maximum of 103 pts.

However, it is extremely unlikely Montreal wins all 15 games. There winning percentage is .545. If you times that by the maximum amount of points left in season you get 16.35, or 16 pts.

73 + 16 = 89 as an estimated final points total.

The issue of course is that winning percentage is based on the entire season. Since the Carrier trade, Montreal has played at a .638 record. That would be 19 pts for 92 pts.

Statistically, Montreal should finish somewhere between 89 and 92 pts.
 
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MarkovsKnee said:
They're using points percentage. You're using total points. Montreal has 15 games left so a maximum of 30 points is available. Add the 73 points they have now & you have a maximum of 103 pts.

However, it is extremely unlikely Montreal wins all 15 games. There winning percentage is .545. If you times that by the maximum amount of points left in season you get 16.35, or 16 pts.

73 + 16 = 89 as an estimated final points total.

The issue of course is that winning percentage is based on the entire season. Since the Carrier trade, Montreal has played at a .638 record. That would be 19 pts for 92 pts.

Statistically, Montreal should finish somewhere between 89 and 92 pts.
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Ahhh I see now thank you bro
 
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HabzSauce said:
How did you get these numbers?

Habs can max out at 103. Wings and Rags at 98. Boston at 95....

I got different totals for every team lmao. Maybe I'm just way worse at math than I thought idk
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MarkovsKnee anwsered how it works, but I'm using hockey-reference projections.

And yes, the "best" is the best simulated season they can still have and not really how many points winning all their remaining games (I missunderstood that part on the side, I didn't validate the numbers). Still the room isn't that much different. Habs have the most room to get 90+ pts out of all the teams.
 
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tazsub3 said:
For the people my age and older that remember Roy career in montreal , he used to allow stinkers regularly…. Then make 10 game saving insane saves hahah…
Not putting monte in the same league as Roy just saying happens to even the best
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We can also look at all the Price threads whenever the team went through a bad stretch, constant complaints about how Price letting in weak goals at the wrong time even though many weren't actually even bad goals just goals that could've been stopped.

Habs fans tend to hold the current goalie to a romanticized view of our previous HOF goalies. So much so that it's what my avatar even alludes too.
 
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MarkovsKnee said:
They're using points percentage. You're using total points. Montreal has 15 games left so a maximum of 30 points is available. Add the 73 points they have now & you have a maximum of 103 pts.

However, it is extremely unlikely Montreal wins all 15 games. There winning percentage is .545. If you times that by the maximum amount of points left in season you get 16.35, or 16 pts.

73 + 16 = 89 as an estimated final points total.

The issue of course is that winning percentage is based on the entire season. Since the Carrier trade, Montreal has played at a .638 record. That would be 19 pts for 92 pts.

Statistically, Montreal should finish somewhere between 89 and 92 pts.
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89 points is typically not enough to make the playoffs. 92 usually does. Good news is we're now in control of our own destiny. We don't need to scoreboard watch if we can keep winning.
 
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MoneyPuck are generational haters lol.
If you look at our odds of winning each remaining game on their site, they have us going 4-11 in the last 15. And pretty much every game they have us losing they have us as heavy underdogs.
 
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So tonight:

Colorado @ Ottawa: Avs are 8-1-1 in last 10. Sure would be nice to see Sens lose and get their super arrogant fans panicking again. Sens apparently have the easiest schedule left due to a lot of home games in April; but this week isn't too easy. After tonight's home game, they're @ NJD. Ottawa is not good on the road.

Maple Leafs @ Rangers: I'm expecting a Leafs win. NYR's D is big, but slow and can't move the puck all that well. The type of team Leafs love to feast on. Also, Rags offense has completely dried up. Their PP is shit, too.

Panthers @ CBJ: Another tough match for Columbus, who has one of the toughest schedules to end the season. Florida has been giving up leads & giving the puck away lately, which has led to 2 consecutive losses. CBJ are a good home team, but have 4 consecutive losses. Can they stop the spin out they're on? Hopefully not tonight!

Detroit is idle till Saturday when they're @ Vegas.
 
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It's hard to wrap my head around the real possibility that we'll be watching the Habs in round-1 in a month. I predicted they'd come close, but fall short. Hoping I'm wrong!
 
A lot can happen in 15 games. Here are the standings 15 games ago (note that Ottawa was 3rd in the Atlantic, and Tampa was out of a playoff spot):

1742503320129.png
 
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MarkovsKnee said:
So tonight:

Colorado @ Ottawa: Avs are 8-1-1 in last 10. Sure would be nice to see Sens lose and get their super arrogant fans panicking again. Sens apparently have the easiest schedule left due to a lot of home games in April; but this week isn't too easy. After tonight's home game, they're @ NJD. Ottawa is not good on the road.

Maple Leafs @ Rangers: I'm expecting a Leafs win. NYR's D is big, but slow and can't move the puck all that well. The type of team Leafs love to feast on. Also, Rags offense has completely dried up. Their PP is shit, too.

Panthers @ CBJ: Another tough match for Columbus, who has one of the toughest schedules to end the season. Florida has been giving up leads & giving the puck away lately, which has led to 2 consecutive losses. CBJ are a good home team, but have 4 consecutive losses. Can they stop the spin out they're on? Hopefully not tonight!

Detroit is idle till Saturday when they're @ Vegas.
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Fiiiiiinally some tough matchups for our enemies FFS lol

Don't let us down Avs, Laffs, Cats
 
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MarkovsKnee said:
So tonight:

Colorado @ Ottawa: Avs are 8-1-1 in last 10. Sure would be nice to see Sens lose and get their super arrogant fans panicking again. Sens apparently have the easiest schedule left due to a lot of home games in April; but this week isn't too easy. After tonight's home game, they're @ NJD. Ottawa is not good on the road.

Maple Leafs @ Rangers: I'm expecting a Leafs win. NYR's D is big, but slow and can't move the puck all that well. The type of team Leafs love to feast on. Also, Rags offense has completely dried up. Their PP is shit, too.

Panthers @ CBJ: Another tough match for Columbus, who has one of the toughest schedules to end the season. Florida has been giving up leads & giving the puck away lately, which has led to 2 consecutive losses. CBJ are a good home team, but have 4 consecutive losses. Can they stop the spin out they're on? Hopefully not tonight!

Detroit is idle till Saturday when they're @ Vegas.
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Toronto and colorado playing b2b. Hopefully it doesnt matter.
 
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