Toggle sidebar

Playoffs Positivity Thread

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
  • We're expecting server maintenance on March 3rd starting at midnight, there may be downtime during the work.

Will the Habs make the playoffs?

  • Total voters
    281
  • Poll closed .
Banjo Cat said:
It's pretty crazy how close together all the teams are in the race for that second wildcard spot. You never know. But whatever happens this season is a step up.
Click to expand...
Count not the points, but the number of wins. Also, don't forget the games among Eastern Conference teams, those are plentiful. And if only between competitors in the fight for the PO (up to 70 games in the bracket), how many wins or OT losses do they need to get to the PO/to the competitor with the most points. I'm not counting Buffalo and Pittsburgh:

Carolina - 12 (4) 0/0
New Jersey - 9 (3) 0/1lot
Columbus - 9 (5) 0/2 w-1lot
Detroit - 7 (3), 0/3 w-1lot
Ottawa - 13 (6) 1w/4 w-1lot
Boston - 7 (2) 1w-1lot/4 w-1lot
Montreal - 9 (2) 1 w-1lot/5 w
Rangers - 8 (4) 2 w-1lot/5w-1lot
Philadelphia 9 (3) 3 w-1lot/5 w-1lot
Islanders 8 (3) 3 w/6 w

Games (in coloured font - the last day until deadline, in your case until departure for the trip)

Lumii_20250302_161411592.jpg
 
Moneypuck has us at 12.6% odds of making the playoffs. Strangely, they have New York Islanders at 23.4% even if we are 2 points over them with a better pt%. Boston at 14.8%, Ottawa at 51.5% (wtf??), Rangers 45.4%, Red Wings 30.6% and Colombus 30.2%. Not sure how they make up their odds seems pretty random.
 
HabsCode said:
Moneypuck has us at 12.6% odds of making the playoffs. Strangely, they have New York Islanders at 23.4% even if we are 2 points over them with a better pt%. Boston at 14.8%, Ottawa at 51.5% (wtf??), Rangers 45.4%, Red Wings 30.6% and Colombus 30.2%. Not sure how they make up their odds seems pretty random.
Click to expand...
Yea, those don't make sense. If NYR win their game in hand they'll only be 1 pt ahead, yet their odds are >30% better than ours?
We only have 3 pts to gain ground on Detroit and Ottawa if they win their game in hand. Along with NYR, if they win their game in hand, only 3 teams to leap over. If we don't self destruct it's going to go down to the wire.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HabsCode
4 wins in a row without guhle. I'm impressed.

I keep waiting for us to come back down to earth but I'm enjoying this stretch of hockey. They're finding ways to win.

Remaining schedule:

sabres W
oilers L
flames W
canucks W
kraken W
panthers L
sens W
islanders W
avalanche L
blues W
flyers W
hurricanes L
panthers L
panthers L
bruins W
flyers W
preds W
wings W
sens W
leafs L
hawks W
canes L

If we win all these games, that gives us 28 points, or 14-8 record. That's some great hockey but not out of the question. We need to beat the teams slightly ahead of us @ 100% to really have a great run at it. 28 points gives us: 91 points. 91 would most likely put us in WC2 or 9th place. That's a tough outcome. If we play anything near .500 or lose games to the sens/bruins/flyers I just don't see us in WC2.

Crazier things have happened and maybe we have multiple 4/5 wins in a row to get it done.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Schooner Guy and Forum93
Forum93 said:
Yea, those don't make sense. If NYR win their game in hand they'll only be 1 pt ahead, yet their odds are >30% better than ours?
We only have 3 pts to gain ground on Detroit and Ottawa if they win their game in hand. Along with NYR, if they win their game in hand, only 3 teams to leap over. If we don't self destruct it's going to go down to the wire.
Click to expand...

They probably calculate on the history and make game to game predictions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Forum93
Rapala said:
I think it's time to congratulate HuGo and the players for sticking us squarely in the mix.
The description of being in the mix was always going to be having to make hard decisions at TDL.

Well here we are.
Click to expand...
Thank you to everyone except Kirby Dach
 
Forum93 said:
Yea, those don't make sense. If NYR win their game in hand they'll only be 1 pt ahead, yet their odds are >30% better than ours?
We only have 3 pts to gain ground on Detroit and Ottawa if they win their game in hand. Along with NYR, if they win their game in hand, only 3 teams to leap over. If we don't self destruct it's going to go down to the wire.
Click to expand...
They aren't just looking at the standings to come up with their odds, they somewhat explain their model and how they come up with the odds here MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works
 
  • Like
Reactions: Forum93 and HabsCode
1740942696199.png

Sens are probably still pretty injured even though guys are back, Bruins lost Marchand, Rangers/Flyers/Islanders are decent opponents in this race.

Red wings and Columbus are the two final bosses for the WC. Good thing is we only have to defeat one. I appreciate all the numbers game posts because it is useful and interesting, but at the end of the day, we gotta play the games, and you never know which teams end up skidding at the wrong time when we are on a hot streak.

The biggest key to us shoring up our points is our goalies getting us to OT. Those points add up (look at CBJ)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Be a Hab, Forum93 and Jurivan Demidovsky
BOS vs MIN starts in 30 min, so hoping for a Wild win. This will keep us two points behind Boston with 2 games in hand.

NSH plays NYR this evening. A Preds win keeps the Rags one point back with same games played.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Forum93
Habssince89 said:
View attachment 985473
Sens are probably still pretty injured even though guys are back, Bruins lost Marchand, Rangers/Flyers/Islanders are decent opponents in this race.

Red wings and Columbus are the two final bosses for the WC. Good thing is we only have to defeat one. I appreciate all the numbers game posts because it is useful and interesting, but at the end of the day, we gotta play the games, and you never know which teams end up skidding at the wrong time when we are on a hot streak.

The biggest key to us shoring up our points is our goalies getting us to OT. Those points add up (look at CBJ)
Click to expand...
CBJ are 4pts back of NJD & Canes - Car has in game in hand
 
Habssince89 said:
View attachment 985473
Sens are probably still pretty injured even though guys are back, Bruins lost Marchand, Rangers/Flyers/Islanders are decent opponents in this race.

Red wings and Columbus are the two final bosses for the WC. Good thing is we only have to defeat one. I appreciate all the numbers game posts because it is useful and interesting, but at the end of the day, we gotta play the games, and you never know which teams end up skidding at the wrong time when we are on a hot streak.

The biggest key to us shoring up our points is our goalies getting us to OT. Those points add up (look at CBJ)
Click to expand...

WTF happened to the Rangers.

How do we have more points than them.

Jesus Christ.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Be a Hab
GrandBison said:
Goal differential looks like one of the main vectors; yet it should qualify CBJ better.
Click to expand...
I agree. But for the Habs our goal difference is a little skewed because most of our big losses came at the beginning of the season. Since the arrival of Laine and Carrier into our lineup, we haven't really had bad losses. We're basically in every game.

This 4 game win streak has kept the dream alive, but imo we need to go 8-2 or something along those lines to have a legit shoot at the playoffs. We play Ottawa 2 more times and the Red Wings once more. Those game are in a couple weeks and we need to be close in points with those teams when we play them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GrandBison
Be a Hab said:
I agree. But for the Habs our goal difference is a little skewed because most of our big losses came at the beginning of the season. Since the arrival of Laine and Carrier into our lineup, we haven't really had bad losses. We're basically in every game.

This 4 game win streak has kept the dream alive, but imo we need to go 8-2 or something along those lines to have a legit shoot at the playoffs. We play Ottawa 2 more times and the Red Wings once more. Those game are in a couple weeks and we need to be close in points with those teams when we play them.
Click to expand...
Don't forget the change from Primeau to Dobes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GrandBison, Jurivan Demidovsky and Be a Hab
So we have had no 2C , Laine has not been what we hoped though he has contributed and Slaf has also not met expectations. The lack of a 2C and a meaningful 2nd line being the biggest issue.

And goaltending has not been consistently good.

Our D is still being figured out and developing.

Yet we are just 3 points out with a quarter of the season remaining. We are not remotely close to being contenders, but we are sniffing close to a spot
 
yianik said:
So we have had no 2C , Laine has not been what we hoped though he has contributed and Slaf has also not met expectations. The lack of a 2C and a meaningful 2nd line being the biggest issue.

And goaltending has not been consistently good.

Our D is still being figured out and developing.

Yet we are just 3 points out with a quarter of the season remaining. We are not remotely close to being contenders, but we are sniffing close to a spot
Click to expand...
An undeniable factor in your "yet we are just 3 points out..." is Patrik Laine. He's providing depth scoring of a 60pt player (much, much better than Newhook, Dach, and Slafkovsky) and has four GWG to his name already. Despite it being ugly, compromised, and disappointing stylistically -- Laine's provided much more than we hoped when we got paid to acquire him. We'd be in the bottom rungs if we lost his scoring.

Another major, major factor has been Hutson. Probably the number 1 factor imo. A 60pt pace season dman tilts the ice in a major way.

The lack of 2C has been painful, we could've had a serious season if we had a 2C and Dach hadn't been a disaster all season long.
 
ReHabs said:
An undeniable factor in your "yet we are just 3 points out..." is Patrik Laine. He's providing depth scoring of a 60pt player (much, much better than Newhook, Dach, and Slafkovsky) and has four GWG to his name already. Despite it being ugly, compromised, and disappointing stylistically -- Laine's provided much more than we hoped when we got paid to acquire him. We'd be in the bottom rungs if we lost his scoring.

Another major, major factor has been Hutson. Probably the number 1 factor imo. A 60pt pace season dman tilts the ice in a major way.

The lack of 2C has been painful, we could've had a serious season if we had a 2C and Dach hadn't been a disaster all season long.
Click to expand...
Laine and Hutson have been big factors in the team's progress, but don't underestimate overall defence. Adding Carrier, the gradual development of Guhle, Xhekaj, and Struble, a more responsible Matheson, plus Hutson, of course. We're giving up fewer shots, taking fewer penalties, and not getting hemmed in our zone as often. In nets, Dobes, as erratic as he's been, also won games that Primeau would've lost. For me, the maturity on the back end is the biggest difference in why the Habs are taking a modest step forward.

Yes, we've added a crazy amount of points from Hutson, but we've lost almost the same amount from Matheson's greatly reduced production.

Dach is a disappointment because he's injured again, not because he was a disaster on the ice. Yeah, he sucked for the first couple of months, but he was getting stronger as the season progressed and I believe he could've cemented himself on the top-6 had he continued playing. At this point it's moot, because we can't rely on him to be healthy.
 
HabsCode said:
Moneypuck has us at 12.6% odds of making the playoffs. Strangely, they have New York Islanders at 23.4% even if we are 2 points over them with a better pt%. Boston at 14.8%, Ottawa at 51.5% (wtf??), Rangers 45.4%, Red Wings 30.6% and Colombus 30.2%. Not sure how they make up their odds seems pretty random.
Click to expand...
A mix of remaking schedule strength + 5v5 analytics and other.

NYR have top tier analytics, but a tougher schedule then Ottawa, which has easier schedule and good analytics.

Detroit has the toughest schedule, CBJ the worst analytics and 2nd worst schedule so they fall behind.

Habs’ combination of analytics & schedule isn’t too bad but not enough to gain ground in their model.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom