I partially agree with a lot of this, but I disagree with the notion that teams can't flip a switch. There are plenty of examples of teams coasting to/at the end and then flipping the switch. The 2015 Hawks dropped 4 straight to end the season before looking exactly like the cap-dynasty Hawks in the playoffs. They also went 2-2-1 to close 2013. The Kings went 1-2-2 to close 2014. Good teams can turn it on and off in the regular season, throw some games in the garbage down the stretch and then flip a switch for the playoffs. Teams with a cushion to make the playoffs have the luxury to coast through stretches of the regular season while bubble teams generally can't afford to do that since their playoff hopes are still in doubt.
This season is a strange year in the sense that our playoff hopes were barely in real danger throughout this year. We were comfortably in a spot for the first half of the year. We were 7 points up in the standings just before that brutal stretch of 2 wins in 14 games and only 5 points out at our worst. We were sitting in a playoff spot on 4/1/21. Then 5 points out on 4/6/21 and back in a playoff spot by 4/10/21. For as bad as we have been for stretches, playoffs were only very briefly in real danger the way they are for most bubble teams. When we were out of a playoff spot for the last month, we had multiple games in hand and were up in points percentage. It has led to a split in people thinking that we are playing to the best of our ability and failing vs not getting up for games. I can't think of many examples like it.
I say all of this because I honestly don't believe that teams carry momentum from the regular season into the playoffs and that flipping a switch is a very real thing. To me, the question isn't "does the switch exist" but is rather, "is this a good team that has played below their ability or a mediocre team that doesn't have another gear?" I think there is reasonable support for both arguments.
Argument 1: This is a good team that has played below their ability
- 14 guys on the expected playoff roster won a Cup 23 months ago and that list includes our starting goalie, the playoff MVP and 8 of the team's top 10 playoff scorers.
- We know the goalie Binner can be. And no one seems to be talking about it, but he's rocking a .925 since the start of April
- The on-ice product is encouraging lately. The coaching staff finally figured out the guys who should be on the top PP unit and it is best in the league since (11 game sample).
- Parayko is the heart of the D and he is looking more and more like himself every night. 4/29/21 was the first time he cleared 21 minutes since 2/8/21. He was averaging 19:52 in the first 8 games of his return from injury. He is up to 23:01 in the games since and we are 7-2-3 in games he plays 21 minutes or more.
- Tarasenko was -8 in his first 14 games back and is +1 in his last 10. The team went 2-8-4 in that first stretch and is 7-3-0 in the second. Massive production hasn't arrived, but the rest of his game is rounding into form. He might not be an elite scoring threat in the playoffs, but he should be a legit secondary threat that isn't a horrific liability. That hasn't been the case for 80% of the season so far.
- Injuries and COVID at least somewhat have derailed this team. Injuries have been brutal this year and have objectively impacted the team. COVID magnified this because pretty much every time we started finding a groove we had our schedule thrown in to chaos. We could have wilted a month ago, but instead came together and have gone 8-3-2 against mostly playoff teams. This stretch has coincided with Parayko/Tarasenko/Binner rounding into form and are an accurate reflection of this team.
Argument 2: This team isn't constructed well and the recent stretch of good play is just a short-lived streak
- Too much of the Cup core is gone. Petro, Bo, Steen, Eddy, Maroon, Gunnar, Sunny and Allen made up a huge part of the leadership group, but more importantly made up an even bigger part of the defensive core of this team. 4 of the 7 D used in the Cup run are gone and that includes 3 of the 4 most-played D men. 3 of our top 4 forward penalty killers aren't here and the top 2 D penalty killers are gone. The Cup team was a defensive juggernaut and it is no where close to that anymore.
- Do we know who Binner is? We know who he can be, but who will he be over the next month+? He was the worst goalie in the league last playoffs and he has been inconsistent this year.
- Parayko and Tarasenko still don't look anything close to the way they did in 2019 and time is running out. There is little reason to believe that they wil suddenly be monsters when the playoffs start next week and this team isn't capable of winning the Cup if Parayko is just an adequate top 4 D man and Tarasenko is a secondary threat.
- Injuries and COVID are excuses to justify a defensively poor team that isn't built to play the coach's style. We are built to play fast, high event hockey and the coach keeps trying to fit square pegs into the round hole of his system. We aren't built to succeed with the system that won a Cup and the coach doesn't know how to build a system that fits the players he has.
- The current stretch of good play has still resulted in us losing ground on the team we'll play in round 1. We're not as bad as our low points this season, but even the high points aren't good enough to beat Vegas/Colorado.
I think that there is support for every bullet point for both arguments and ultimately I don't think anyone can know which argument is closer to the truth. That's why they play the games.
