Playoff Race Thread

[Dekes For Days]

All late 1st round & early 2nd round picks don't become good NHLers, but the idea that they are throw-aways and have limited value I think is wrong.

Nobody is saying they are throwaways. However, what they are is less valuable than young established NHLers on good contracts like Kapanen and Johnson, which is what was saved by trading the 1st away.

If we keep trading those picks off, then all we have left is the trade route, and that's a pretty slippery slope imho.

Or signing quality RFA-age players like Mikyehev, who can step right in to key roles and are the type of talents you'd hope to get out of a mid-late 1st round pick.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The whole deal around Marleau was fishy. Lou and Dubie would be too classy to even discuss it. But I do not blame him for unloading Marleau I just wish it was not a 2020 1st rounder. But who knows maybe that was the only deal on the table. and why would anyone do us any favours.

I honestly wonder if the Marleau contract is one reason why Shanahan choose to not re-sign Lou as the GM and give the job the Dubas.

 

[robertmac43]

I honestly wonder if the Marleau contract is one reason why Shanahan choose to not re-sign Lou as the GM and give the job the Dubas.

My guess is Shanahan was in on it as well.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

My guess is Shanahan was in on it as well.

I think so too ... but who knows. No one will ever say anything out of respect for Marleau.

 

[Big Muddy]

Nobody is saying they are throwaways. However, what they are is less valuable than young established NHLers on good contracts like Kapanen and Johnson, which is what was saved by trading the 1st away.

Or signing quality RFA-age players like Mikyehev, who can step right in to key roles and are the type of talents you'd hope to get out of a mid-late 1st round pick.

You can always try your luck at signing players outside of the NHL. We've done that before. Some make it, and some wash out (e.g., Ozhiganov, Lindholm, Zaitsev, Borgman, Soshnikov, etc.). But, its not automatic that it works out & the results are just as variable as the draft picks.

You can keep trying to land a few nuggets from non-NHL leagues each & every year. Nothing stopping or precluding us from using this as a supplemental strategy each year. But, when you trade your top picks away, they're gone. And that becomes problematic after a team has done that for a few successive years. The draft is the primary strategy versus relying or hoping that non-NHL sources work out.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But, when you trade your top picks away, they're gone. And that becomes problematic after a team has done that for a few successive years.

Is not having a 1st round pick good? No.
Is it better than the alternative? Yes.
Is not having a 1st round pick the end of the world when we have had multiple prospects step up and impress this year, multiple consecutive drafts having found steals, a young core signed long term, and a steal signing from overseas? No.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The whole deal around Marleau was fishy. Lou and Dubie would be too classy to even discuss it. But I do not blame him for unloading Marleau I just wish it was not a 2020 1st rounder. But who knows maybe that was the only deal on the table. and why would anyone do us any favours.

The problem was that Marleau only wanted to go to SJS, and they didn't want him. When the original trade request came out, the reports were that he was willing to go just about anywhere out west to be closer to home, and LAK, ANA, and ARI were interested. Not that we would get good value coming back, but there's no way we pay a 1st in that scenario, especially considering we'd be paying his bonus for them.

We paid a 1st because Marleau had a little temper tantrum and insisted to ONLY go to SJS, or a team that would buy him out so he could go to SJS. The deadline to buy him out was before his bonus was scheduled to be paid. So the team taking him on had to:

1) Set 1.25 million dollars on fire
2) Tie up 6.25 in dead cap for a full year

And if you failed to do either of those, you'd have to pay him his 3 million dollar signing bonus in cash while he sits out because you're not San Jose.

 

[Big Muddy]

You can always try your luck at signing players outside of the NHL. We've done that before. Some make it, and some wash out (e.g., Ozhiganov, Lindholm, Zaitsev, Borgman, Soshnikov, etc.). But, its not automatic that it works out & the results are just as variable as the draft picks.

You can keep trying to land a few nuggets from non-NHL leagues each & every year. Nothing stopping or precluding us or any team from doing that each year. But, when you trade your top picks away, they're gone. And that becomes problematic after a team has done that for a few successive years.

Is not having a 1st round pick good? No.
Is it better than the alternative? Yes.
Is not having a 1st round pick the end of the world when we have had multiple prospects step up and impress this year, multiple consecutive drafts having found steals, a young core signed long term, and a steal signing from overseas? No.

You can't count on landing gems from non-NHL league sources. It seems to me that we been down this path before and we've had lots that don't work out.

I get it that we like our management team & that we think they're smart. But, they are not so much smarter than their peers that will defy odds indefinitely. The draft is still the best tool in the tool box today. It will catch up to us as it has for numerous other teams who found themselves in this position.

Believe what you want to believe though & I think further conversation will be pointless.

 

[Martin Skoula]

You can't count on landing gems from non-NHL league sources. It seems to me that we been down this path before and we've had lots that don't work out.

I get it that we like our management team & that we think they're smart. But, they are not so much smarter than their peers that will defy odds indefinitely. The draft is still the best tool in the tool box today. It will catch up to us as it has for numerous other teams who found themselves in this position.

Believe what you want to believe though & I think further conversation will be pointless.

Trying to land a major piece from overseas is a bad plan, but you can get bottom-6/bottom pair players pretty reliably without breaking the bank. The whole point of the draft is to support the core at below-market cap hits at this point, we're probably not picking up any more core pieces unless we get lucky. Our problems start when the Gauthiers/Moores start creeping up into 1.5-2 mil AAVs, we just need bodies that can replace them at 700k reliably. Ozhiganov/Lindholm types are tolerable stopgaps for that purpose.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You can't count on landing gems from non-NHL league sources.

"Counting on it" isn't the point. The point is we already got it, and when you have a core locked down, you don't need one every single year. So much worry and hate thrown around about this year's 1st round pick, when this year we have gotten more value from the Mikyehev signing alone, not even counting the countless other gems we have found within our prospect pool/development system, that have been drafted, developed, and/or given opportunity by Dubas and/or Keefe.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The problem was that Marleau only wanted to go to SJS, and they didn't want him. When the original trade request came out, the reports were that he was willing to go just about anywhere out west to be closer to home, and LAK, ANA, and ARI were interested. Not that we would get good value coming back, but there's no way we pay a 1st in that scenario, especially considering we'd be paying his bonus for them.

We paid a 1st because Marleau had a little temper tantrum and insisted to ONLY go to SJS, or a team that would buy him out so he could go to SJS. The deadline to buy him out was before his bonus was scheduled to be paid. So the team taking him on had to:

1) Set 1.25 million dollars on fire
2) Tie up 6.25 in dead cap for a full year

And if you failed to do either of those, you'd have to pay him his 3 million dollar signing bonus in cash while he sits out because you're not San Jose.

What exactly would have been wrong if Marleau would have accepted a trade to the Kings or Sharks. He would still get his wish to be back in California and worst case his family was a few hours away in San Jose. Hell would it have been bad for them to move to either city for 1 year?

 

[ToneDog]

Is not having a 1st round pick good? No.
Is it better than the alternative? Yes.
Is not having a 1st round pick the end of the world when we have had multiple prospects step up and impress this year, multiple consecutive drafts having found steals, a young core signed long term, and a steal signing from overseas? No.

You do realize that most of the top players on our roster that we have drafted are high picks.

Matthews #1
Marner #4
Nylander #8
Rielly #5
Dermott #34
Lily #17
Sandin #29
Robertson #53
Goat #21

Sure we did good drafting AJ, Timo, and Engvall and finding Soup and Moore but these are not difference makers. We have not picked a serious stud outside the top 2 rounds since I can't recall (Kaberlae 1996).

And BTW JT #1, Kappy #22, Spezza #2, Hyman #123, Kerfoot #150, #141, Andy #87, Barrie #64

Yeah I know, we now have Dubas so things are different but the higher the pick the better chance of hitting a Home run.

 

[Martin Skoula]

What exactly would have been wrong if Marleau would have accepted a trade to the Kings or Sharks. He would still get his wish to be back in California and worst case his family was a few hours away in San Jose. Hell would it have been bad for them to move to either city for 1 year?

He was probably worried he'd actually have to work for his money without Babcock or Wilson involved.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He was probably worried he'd actually have to work for his money without Babcock or Wilson involved.

Prior to this season the Kings still had Ilya Kovalchuk on their roster and they had also bought out Dion Phaneuf. So it's not like they didn't mind spending money on veteran players like Kovalchuk or paying Phaneuf to no longer play for them.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You do realize that most of the top players on our roster that we have drafted are high picks.

This doesn't change anything I said. We realistically have our top impact players. We're talking about rotating depth.

People keep talking about the 1st in a vacuum, but they conveniently ignore both what was saved by trading the 1st (Kapanen and Johnsson), and the state of our prospect pool and how it has maintained and even improved without the 1st (Previous two 1st round picks were steals, 2nd round pick last year was a steal, multiple other promising picks, signed Mikyehev for free and was awesome, Engvall, Timashov, Gauthier, Holl, etc. have all taken steps, some massive, beyond what was expected of them).

 

[LeafsNation75]

My guess is Shanahan was in on it as well.

Maybe Shanahan told Lou try to sign Marleau if he could, that doesn't mean he wanted him to give him 3 years. Also if it was true that Babcock wanted Marleau signed what does that say about Lou's reputation since he was forced into it by the head coach who he technically could have fired and was giving an extra year to a player who never played for him before.

 

[LeafsNation75]

You do realize that most of the top players on our roster that we have drafted are high picks.

Matthews #1
Marner #4
Nylander #8
Rielly #5
Dermott #34
Lily #17
Sandin #29
Robertson #53
Goat #21

Sure we did good drafting AJ, Timo, and Engvall and finding Soup and Moore but these are not difference makers. We have not picked a serious stud outside the top 2 rounds since I can't recall (Kaberlae 1996).

And BTW JT #1, Kappy #22, Spezza #2, Hyman #123, Kerfoot #150, #141, Andy #87, Barrie #64

Yeah I know, we now have Dubas so things are different but the higher the pick the better chance of hitting a Home run.

There is no doubt that having 1st and 2nd round picks is valuable in the examples of those players you mentioned.

However I think including players like Tavares, Kapanen, Spezza, Hyman, Kerfoot, Andersen and Barrie shouldn't matter since none of them were selected by the Leafs. They were either acquired via trade or signed as UFA's.

Also since you mentioned Toronto not selecting any serious players outside of the first and second rounds besides Tomas Kaberle, you should know that Andreas Johnsson was a 7th round pick 202nd overall in the 2013 draft.

 

[ToneDog]

There is no doubt that having 1st and 2nd round picks is valuable in the examples of those players you mentioned.

However I think including players like Tavares, Kapanen, Spezza, Hyman, Kerfoot, Andersen and Barrie shouldn't matter since none of them were selected by the Leafs. They were either acquired via trade or signed as UFA's.

Also since you mentioned Toronto not selecting any serious players outside of the first and second rounds besides Tomas Kaberle, you should know that Andreas Johnsson was a 7th round pick 202nd overall in the 2013 draft.

Correct AJ and Engvall were 7th rounders which I gave credit for. The others were we traded for or signed but you can see the best are high picks too. At the end of the day we need to draft better in the mid to late rounds since we do not have lots of cap space and we are not finishing bottom 10 soon (hopefully).

 

[LeafsNation75]

Correct AJ and Engvall were 7th rounders which I gave credit for. The others were we traded for or signed but you can see the best are high picks too. At the end of the day we need to draft better in the mid to late rounds since we do not have lots of cap space and we are not finishing bottom 10 soon (hopefully).

Even though Dubas had traded Connor Brown he was someone they selected in the 6th round at 156th overall in the 2012 draft.

 

[Big Muddy]

"Counting on it" isn't the point. The point is we already got it, and when you have a core locked down, you don't need one every single year. So much worry and hate thrown around about this year's 1st round pick, when this year we have gotten more value from the Mikyehev signing alone, not even counting the countless other gems we have found within our prospect pool/development system, that have been drafted, developed, and/or given opportunity by Dubas and/or Keefe.

Countless other gems from non NHL sources***? That was the topic, not what you're pitching now. I'm not buying this (***), but more importantly, like I said before, pointless continuing this discussion. I'll let you have the last word because that's important for you.

 

[Fatass]

Yeah except the variance in the likelihood becomes increasingly small between picks as you get out of the top 10-15 in the draft. Obviously if Toronto tanks it this season and next (the pick is conditional), and somehow it ends up being a pick in the top 15 for Carolina, this looks a lot worse for the Leafs. However, I think Dubas was pretty safe gambling that this would be a pick closer to the 24-31 range (as it has been the past two seasons).

This off-season, Dubas successfully offloaded Marleau ($6.25M), Zaitsev ($4.5M), and Brown ($2.1M), and in total, traded away three 2020 draft picks (1st, 3rd, 7th) and acquired four (3rd, 4th, 6th, 6th). In terms of expected pick value, he traded away approximately 501, and gained approximately 420 (based on last year's standings)...the disparity in value of those picks, 81, is equivalent to about the 146th overall pick in the draft.

So, essentially this off-season, Dubas did the following:
In - Tyson Barrie ($2.75M), Alex Kerfoot ($3.5M), Cody Ceci ($4.5M), Aaron Luchuk (ECHL), Ben Harpur (AHL), David Clarkson (LTIR), Jordan Schmaltz (AHL)
Out - Nazem Kadri ($4.5M), Calle Rosen (AHL), Patrick Marleau ($6.25M), Connor Brown ($2.1M), Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5M), Michael Carcone (AHL), Garrett Sparks (AHL), Andreas Borgman (AHL), 146th overall pick.

So in essence, you lose two useful players (Kadri & Brown), and replace them with two useful players (Barrie & Kerfoot), while offloading two negative players (Marleau & Zaitsev), and replacing them with only one negative player (Ceci)...otherwise its just minor leaguers getting moved around. In total, this saved Toronto $6.6M in cap space, all for the price of a 146th overall pick.

That $6.6M is basically what allowed us to bring Johnsson & Kapanen back. So as important as draft picks, and that lottery ticket for new ELCs are...I don't think you can argue that Johnsson + Kapanen < 146th overall pick.

That’s all nice, but a great young core deserves to have a pipeline of top prospects coming up to support them. The team has spent (the players deserve the dollars; no argument about that) big cap dollars on its core pieces. That means there needs to be prospects coming in on ELCs to balance the books. UFA guys are too costly. Except fir the super cheap ones, who aren’t really good enough. It’s those young guys who are really good, but still on ELCs that are key. Giving up top picks diminishes the chances of drafting those key prospects. It’s only logical the higher the pick the more likely that player is useful. I think that’s why there is a draft, right?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Countless other gems from non NHL sources*** (which was the topic, not what you're pitching now)?

Please go back and read my response. I have addressed this multiple times. We don't need "countless other gems from non NHL sources". We got a great player, at a developed age, that we would be lucky to draft in the 1st round, and context like that (and the countless other things I mentioned) needs to be considered when endlessly complaining about the 1st round pick. The 1st round pick was not traded in isolation.

 

[Big Muddy]

There is no doubt that having 1st and 2nd round picks is valuable in the examples of those players you mentioned.

However I think including players like Tavares, Kapanen, Spezza, Hyman, Kerfoot, Andersen and Barrie shouldn't matter since none of them were selected by the Leafs. They were either acquired via trade or signed as UFA's.

Also since you mentioned Toronto not selecting any serious players outside of the first and second rounds besides Tomas Kaberle, you should know that Andreas Johnsson was a 7th round pick 202nd overall in the 2013 draft.

We have the $11 m Tavares. NYI had the inexpensive ELC/RFA Tavares. Now we're trying to figure out how to fix the blueline again because we are squeezed against the cap partially because of this.

Kapanen came via a trade involving Kessel. We got Kessel by trading away two 1sts who could have been Seguin & Hamilton. We'd been better off just keeping the picks.

All teams get some good players later in the draft. And, of course, you can supplement a strong core with the odd, strategic trade. That was not the specific topic that I was discussing though.

And, that doesn't mean that late 1sts or early 2nds are expendable and that was the topic at hand, not these other tangental topics. And, I'm not sure how someone supports the idea that getting players from non-NHL sources is better than landing them from late 1sts & early 2nds, which again, was the actual topic of conversation.

We've been down this path before. For every Mikyehev, there are "n" (where "n" is a large number) non NHL source players that wash out. This is deja-vu & starting to sound like the free wallets that Burke used to talk about.

 

[HellasLEAF]

....

 

[67Leafs67]

That’s all nice, but a great young core deserves to have a pipeline of top prospects coming up to support them. The team has spent (the players deserve the dollars; no argument about that) big cap dollars on its core pieces. That means there needs to be prospects coming in on ELCs to balance the books. UFA guys are too costly. Except fir the super cheap ones, who aren’t really good enough. It’s those young guys who are really good, but still on ELCs that are key. Giving up top picks diminishes the chances of drafting those key prospects. It’s only logical the higher the pick the more likely that player is useful. I think that’s why there is a draft, right?

The highlighted portions show that you definitely did not understand the post at all. You say it is "all nice", but then make the same argument the post just refuted.