Playoff race/Scoreboard watching thread

[CBJWerenski8]

There's still 16 games left, not that long ago Montreal went through a rough stretch and really looked like they were out of it, yet now they are only 1 point behind Rangers for the 2nd wild card spot while having two games in hand, having gone 7-1-2 in their last ten.

This is a horrible time to lose three in a row, but it's all still very much in their hands, CBJ also have played 2 less games than the Rangers and are only 2 points back. NYR actually have worse P% than either Canadiens or the Jackets.

The schedule is brutal. Even the favorable matchups come on unfavorable terms (like Pittsburgh who is now hot, and the second half of a back to back). I get your sentiment and I agree in theory it isn’t over, but it’s pretty over in my eyes.

 

[ViD]

Very favorable scores for us so far tonight

We just need to start winning, we’re still there

 

[Theo Von]

Very favorable scores for us so far tonight

We just need to start winning, we’re still there

….. montreal won. we’re now 3 points back of them with the same amount of games left.

heck, the islanders are now tied with us in the standings.

we’re absolutely done.

 

[NotCommitted]

Well, playing meaningful games this far into the season and getting back on the right track after the horrible last two seasons is already a great thing but there was a period of time it really looked like they were going to make it, so can't help but feel disappointed if they don't... but even if they fail to make it, shouldn't hold it against the players, they have really done a great job - this team was not supposed to go anywhere even before losing Monahan etc. so they have already overachieved for the season.

That said, it's not over yet. IMO they deserve the fans believing in them and staying with it until it's truly mathematically impossible. And if they indeed don't make it in the end, no reason to feel disappointed or let down, just enjoy the ride. This losing streak is bad though and not a great look, but again gotta keep in mind this is probably not so much the players failing or being anti-clutch, just that they have played all through the season at the top of their ability and teams which have been actually underperforming are now fighting for their life.

 

[ViD]

With us getting Monahan, Sillinger and Gud back this week plus the fact that we played well in those losses, I refuse to forfeit the season, we will battle back

 

[Nanabijou]

If you had told me back in Sept that CBJ would be 3-4 points out of a playoff spots in late March, I'd be ecstatic. They just need to find their scoring mojo again.

 

[Cowumbus]

They need to win 9-10 out of the last 13.

Since February, the Jackets are 5-12.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

They need to win 9-10 out of the last 13.

Since February, the Jackets are 5-12.

Was going to do a post laying out the schedules for us and the teams around us for the 2nd WC spot, but honestly, its pretty meaningless until they get to within 2 points.

So unless that happens, which I doubt it does (although MTL schedule is going to get rough here), I'm not even worried about it.

 

[Doggy]

If you had told me back in Sept that CBJ would be 3-4 points out of a playoff spots in late March, I'd be ecstatic. They just need to find their scoring mojo again.

In this case it's not about where they are as much as how they got here. If they had come out of the gates slowly but built up getting better and better as the season went along and were finishing strong but just miss that'd be OK. But to start off slow and then really strong through the middle and then collapse down the stretch conceding a playoff spot they were holding on to...that's disheartening.

I realize they still have time to turn around the narrative of how this season ends but where we stand at this very moment...it's a disappointing collapse.

Oh, and how huge are those losses to Montreal earlier in the season when the Habs were not playing well but we were?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

In this case it's not about where they are as much as how they got here. If they had come out of the gates slowly but built up getting better and better as the season went along and were finishing strong but just miss that'd be OK. But to start off slow and then really strong through the middle and then collapse down the stretch conceding a playoff spot they were holding on to...that's disheartening.

I realize they still have time to turn around the narrative of how this season ends but where we stand at this very moment...it's a disappointing collapse.

Oh, and how huge are those losses to Montreal earlier in the season when the Habs were not playing well but we were?

It's almost as if every game, every point matters.

 

[CBJx614]

Oof

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Posted in the GDT but tonight is it. If we lose, it’s done. Even for the most optimistic fan you’d have to admit it.

If we lose we’re 5 points back(because of tiebreaker), and Montreal plays twice before we play again. It could go up to 9 back. That’s not even including the Rangers/Isles/wings

 

[Cheddarcheese]

i think we got to win 9 out of our 13 games left. ( can get away with 8 if we beat Ottawa 3 times )

pretty gutty scheduled to finish up
ottawa x 3
wash x 2
leafs x1
colorado x 1
islander x 2
nash x 1
buffalo x1
philly x 1
van x1

nows the time to get hot lets go!!!!

 

[majormajor]

Posted in the GDT but tonight is it. If we lose, it’s done. Even for the most optimistic fan you’d have to admit it.

If we lose we’re 5 points back(because of tiebreaker), and Montreal plays twice before we play again. It could go up to 9 back. That’s not even including the Rangers/Isles/wings

I wouldn't admit it because it isn't true. We go more like from 10% chance of making it to 3%. We still wouldn't even have to win every game if we lose tonight, so it's too early to say "done". You like to call things too early.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I wouldn't admit it because it isn't true. We go more like from 10% chance of making it to 3%. We still wouldn't even have to win every game if we lose tonight, so it's too early to say "done". You like to call things too early.

It's a way of making a prediction about which you feel certain. "Lose tonight's game = too much to overcome for them to make the playoffs. So if they lose tonight, in my mind, then they won't make the playoffs" Just because it's possible doesn't mean it will happen.

I'm wrestling feeling the same way. I'm sure CBJW would be glad, come April 17, to have been wrong.

All of the above is to defend the "face value" content of a post. It's entirely possible that CBJW is attempting a strategy on a larger scale.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I wouldn't admit it because it isn't true. We go more like from 10% chance of making it to 3%. We still wouldn't even have to win every game if we lose tonight, so it's too early to say "done". You like to call things too early.

If you want to call a potential 9 point deficit as still alive, then go ahead. Even if the deficit remained at 4 (which is basically 5 since we have no tiebreakers), time has essentially run out. And that’s the best case scenario.

I called them dead a while ago, which I stand by. However I also deal with a ton of optimists in my family/close friend circle who haven’t given up, so I’m still very much aware of the other side of the coin too.

I don’t subscribe to the theory of mathematically Alive = still alive. I’m using basic logic.

 

[majormajor]

If you want to call a potential 9 point deficit as still alive, then go ahead. Even if the deficit remained at 4 (which is basically 5 since we have no tiebreakers), time has essentially run out. And that’s the best case scenario.

A "potential 9 point deficit" is just confusing things. If we lose tonight AND Montreal wins both of those games then yes our odds diminish to something around 1%. But we don't know whether Montreal will win those games, they have to play them first.

 

[Doggy]

I wouldn't admit it because it isn't true. We go more like from 10% chance of making it to 3%. We still wouldn't even have to win every game if we lose tonight, so it's too early to say "done". You like to call things too early.

As a New Yorker I am sarcastic all the time but have no idea about you midwesterners. I am guessing this is sarcasm...it's gotta be...right?

 

[CBJx614]

If you want to call a potential 9 point deficit as still alive, then go ahead. Even if the deficit remained at 4 (which is basically 5 since we have no tiebreakers), time has essentially run out. And that’s the best case scenario.

I called them dead a while ago, which I stand by. However I also deal with a ton of optimists in my family/close friend circle who haven’t given up, so I’m still very much aware of the other side of the coin too.

I don’t subscribe to the theory of mathematically Alive = still alive. I’m using basic logic.

I think mentally, if they lose tonight it's gonna be hard for this team to push and make it. Hopefully Guddy and Monny in the room help that push start tonight, but I'm not holding my breath yet. If we win tonight it could change quickly.

 

[majormajor]

As a New Yorker I am sarcastic all the time but have no idea about you midwesterners. I am guessing this is sarcasm...it's gotta be...right?

Not sarcastic and not sure why you think that.

Generally, people who speak in absolutes don't understand people who speak in probabilities. Maybe that's what you're on about.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Not sarcastic and not sure why you think that.

Generally, people who speak in absolutes don't understand people who speak in probabilities. Maybe that's what you're on about.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.

 

[Xoggz22]

I wouldn't admit it because it isn't true. We go more like from 10% chance of making it to 3%. We still wouldn't even have to win every game if we lose tonight, so it's too early to say "done". You like to call things too early.

Clearly you are taking his statement too literally. If you look at the history, it's going to take roughly 92 points or more to get in. That's 10 wins and an OT loss just to get to 92 points in the last 13 games. Now look at their record on the season...31-29-9... while it isn't a perfect barometer, that would be roughly 6-6-1 for a total of 84 points. It's not a perfect view given they have gotten 3 points in their last 10 games so they could get hot and win 8 of 13....maybe (but unlikely at this point). Essentially, the mountain to climb, while not insurmountable, is nearly impossible to overcome with the teams to pass and no tie breakers going our way. It's an unfortunate position to be in after such a great year to be a fan, but they are done.

 

[majormajor]

Clearly you are taking his statement too literally. If you look at the history, it's going to take roughly 92 points or more to get in. That's 10 wins and an OT loss just to get to 92 points in the last 13 games. Now look at their record on the season...31-29-9... while it isn't a perfect barometer, that would be roughly 6-6-1 for a total of 84 points. It's not a perfect view given they have gotten 3 points in their last 10 games so they could get hot and win 8 of 13....maybe (but unlikely at this point). Essentially, the mountain to climb, while not insurmountable, is nearly impossible to overcome with the teams to pass and no tie breakers going our way. It's an unfortunate position to be in after such a great year to be a fan, but they are done.

Perhaps CJBW can correct me and he really means by "done" something like 3% chance, but I actually think he wants me to take him literally.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Perhaps CJBW can correct me and he really means by "done" something like 3% chance, but I actually think he wants me to take him literally.

I do, but if you want to cling to the mathematical 3% chance (or whatever it would be) go for it. I know who would end up correct. And so do you, which is why I find this whole argument odd.

 

[majormajor]

I do, but if you want to cling to the mathematical 3% chance (or whatever it would be) go for it. I know who would end up correct. And so do you, which is why I find this whole argument odd.

If someone says 3% probability something happens, and the thing doesn't happen, that doesn't mean they were incorrect.

With probabilities the test is how often will it happen out of 1000 times. 20-40? Then I'm in the neighborhood. Zero out of 1000? Then you were right. Obviously we are unlikely to find out "who was right" this season because they are likely to miss the playoffs, which is what we both expect to happen.