Playoff Analysis and Future Thoughts

[Pizza!Pizza!]

I know he was on a roll this season but I am still in the 'fire armstrong' crowd. That said, I dont know who would be a good replacement for him, so Im fine if he sticks around awhile longer. It could always be worse.

Coaching improved this year but obviously could have been better. I sent an email to the State Department to try to get Claude Julien's work visa revoked, hopefully that solves our coaching problems.

Kyrou is better than Dizee gives him credit, but he suffers from what we Wings fans call "Dylan Larkin Syndrome". He can be the heart the soul of the team, but if he's playing on your first line you aren't going to win anything. Kyrou is best as a middle 6 and doesn't have the size, muscle or the compete level for first line action (as Dizee so often points out). With his salary it would be nice if he was shipped out for a bigger body (maybe send him to Buffalo and try to get Tage Thompson back lol), shame he didnt sign a more team friendly deal like Nugent-Hopkins did in Edmonton.

Defense needs to be re-worked. Individually I like all of the players, but their play styles do not complement each other well, need less small bodied puck movers and more big shutdown shot blockers.

 

[execwrite1]

The forward lines and goalkeeping are solid. The fixes need to happen on defense.

Parayko, Fowler
RHD Broberg
RHD Tucker

Ideally replace Faulk, Leddy and Suter. Second and third pair RHD.

Still rooting for an Aaron Ekblad signing.

 

[Beninnola]

Can you see DA spending $13M/yr on a free agent? That's never been his M.O.
I think he'd prefer to roll out an offense that can cause death by a thousand cuts, rather than load up on expensive stars at the top of the roster.

I think an argument can be made that a very healthy cap structure includes one premium talent in the higher tier. If you’re spending it all one way or another - I think ideally you’d want your compensation distributed in a curve similar to the leagues talent. It sort of parks the dollars in a distribution that you’d ideally strive to keep intact - replacing the big contracts with new ones when they expire. I don’t think there is enough talent for every team to have this model cap structure, so you’re either fortunate to have it or not.

when the cap structure does not represent the talent curve of the nhl - I feel you could argue the team has too few competitive restrictions? It’s easy to give guys paydays when you’ve got the whole pie on the table. Some jobs are earned and others are filled because that’s what the situation requires: you want as many jobs to be earned as possible, minimizing the number you fill through necessity. Once you’ve committed such a large percentage to one individual you’re raising the level of competition for the other roles as the group fights over much less overall pie to share. The barrier to offering deals is raised slightly.

I don’t think individual aav would ever be a problem for our organization - so long as we don’t end up with multiple high end assets like the avalanche, although I can see age, bonus structure, and movement clauses being problems potentially. The benefit of any long term deal is that the cap will be rising each year of it - the aav may be high the day the deal is signed but the aav will not (or we have bigger problems) be considered high the day it expires.

 

[Xerloris]

I think an argument can be made that a very healthy cap structure includes one premium talent in the higher tier. If you’re spending it all one way or another - I think ideally you’d want your compensation distributed in a curve similar to the leagues talent. It sort of parks the dollars in a distribution that you’d ideally strive to keep intact - replacing the big contracts with new ones when they expire. I don’t think there is enough talent for every team to have this model cap structure, so you’re either fortunate to have it or not.

when the cap structure does not represent the talent curve of the nhl - I feel you could argue the team has too few competitive restrictions? It’s easy to give guys paydays when you’ve got the whole pie on the table. Some jobs are earned and others are filled because that’s what the situation requires: you want as many jobs to be earned as possible, minimizing the number you fill through necessity. Once you’ve committed such a large percentage to one individual you’re raising the level of competition for the other roles as the group fights over much less overall pie to share. The barrier to offering deals is raised slightly.

I don’t think individual aav would ever be a problem for our organization - so long as we don’t end up with multiple high end assets like the avalanche, although I can see age, bonus structure, and movement clauses being problems potentially. The benefit of any long term deal is that the cap will be rising each year of it - the aav may be high the day the deal is signed but the aav will not (or we have bigger problems) be considered high the day it expires.

Normally that one higher tier talent should be a game breaker and preferably a game breaker in the playoffs. Is Marner that?

 

[STL fan in MN]

I know he was on a roll this season but I am still in the 'fire armstrong' crowd. That said, I dont know who would be a good replacement for him, so Im fine if he sticks around awhile longer. It could always be worse.

Coaching improved this year but obviously could have been better. I sent an email to the State Department to try to get Claude Julien's work visa revoked, hopefully that solves our coaching problems.

Kyrou is better than Dizee gives him credit, but he suffers from what we Wings fans call "Dylan Larkin Syndrome". He can be the heart the soul of the team, but if he's playing on your first line you aren't going to win anything. Kyrou is best as a middle 6 and doesn't have the size, muscle or the compete level for first line action (as Dizee so often points out). With his salary it would be nice if he was shipped out for a bigger body (maybe send him to Buffalo and try to get Tage Thompson back lol), shame he didnt sign a more team friendly deal like Nugent-Hopkins did in Edmonton.

Defense needs to be re-worked. Individually I like all of the players, but their play styles do not complement each other well, need less small bodied puck movers and more big shutdown shot blockers.

You just want Army fired so you guys can replace Yzerman with Army, don’t you?

Army is quite literally leaving as GM a year from now. On 7/1/26, Alex Steen becomes the GM. Army will stay as Team President.

Also, why in the world would he be fired? His last 12 months has been fantastic. Absolutely stole Holloway and Broberg, brought in a great coach in Monty and then made a great deal for Fowler as well. What’s been his worst move lately? Texier for a 4th? Even though it’s looking like Tex likely won’t work out here he still probably played more for the Blues this season than the average 4th rd pick would.

I wasn’t a huge fan of some of the moves Army did from 2021-2023 but I have to admit he’s been pretty great this year.

 

[Beninnola]

Normally that one higher tier talent should be a game breaker and preferably a game breaker in the playoffs. Is Marner that?

lets revisit this after the post season.

I’m of the mindset that any team with a mostly healthy marner cannot lose an elimination game. Similar to marners play with Makar during 4 nations: they were unstoppable and thanos. He’s good enough to carry and he’s good enough to carry in big games. I believe that he gave something to 4 nations and the leafs will get it too. Let’s see if that works out.

How good would we be if we had Robert Thomas AND a guy with more primary assists (rates, not just cumulative numbers) the last few years? What would teams do if we separated them? What would they do if we put them together? Yes please. (Note that imo marner had higher primary assists rates than Thomas because we traded a winger for a draft pick and that makes primary assists harder, but Thomas still gets a boatload of them).

Extra credit: Marner had more points this season than McDavid

Monty seemed to do well with premium talent getting 61 goals out of pasta. Perhaps the blues would use the Boston best regular season all time template cap structure and include a super highly paid RW.

 

[Xerloris]

Perhaps the blues would use the Boston best regular season all time template cap structure and include a super highly paid RW.

I mean we don't have 2 stud centers on sweet heart deals to really use that. talking about Bergeron and Krejci

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

You just want Army fired so you guys can replace Yzerman with Army, don’t you?

Army is quite literally leaving as GM a year from now. On 7/1/26, Alex Steen becomes the GM. Army will stay as Team President.

Also, why in the world would he be fired? His last 12 months has been fantastic. Absolutely stole Holloway and Broberg, brought in a great coach in Monty and then made a great deal for Fowler as well. What’s been his worst move lately? Texier for a 4th? Even though it’s looking like Tex likely won’t work out here he still probably played more for the Blues this season than the average 4th rd pick would.

I wasn’t a huge fan of some of the moves Army did from 2021-2023 but I have to admit he’s been pretty great this year.

I wanted him gone in 2019. after the Cup run I stopped complaining for a bit, but I still think he's a flawed GM overall and want someone new at the helm. The problem with mediocre GMs (like Yzerman, who I think is worse than Army) is that even if their mistakes outweigh or outnumber their wins....firing them almost always guarantees you end up with someone worse. Almost all NHL GMs are bad at their jobs, but since its a good ol' boys club they just keep playing musical chairs and there is rarely any new blood (and when there is, you end up with Pejorative Slurs like the guy from the Coyotes that got forced out of the league).

Basically, in a perfect world, Army would have been gone at least 6 years ago and replaced with someone better. However, in the real world 95% of his likely replacements in that timeframe would have worse than him anyway. He's made several really great moves lately which - just like the Cup win - made everyone forget all the years of bad moves he made leading up to those points.

I really hope Steen is better than Army and stays around a long time if he is.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I wanted him gone in 2019. after the Cup run I stopped complaining for a bit, but I still think he's a flawed GM overall and want someone new at the helm. The problem with mediocre GMs (like Yzerman, who I think is worse than Army) is that even if their mistakes outweigh or outnumber their wins....firing them almost always guarantees you end up with someone worse. Almost all NHL GMs are bad at their jobs, but since its a good ol' boys club they just keep playing musical chairs and there is rarely any new blood (and when there is, you end up with Pejorative Slurs like the guy from the Coyotes that got forced out of the league).

Basically, in a perfect world, Army would have been gone at least 6 years ago and replaced with someone better. However, in the real world 95% of his likely replacements in that timeframe would have worse than him anyway. He's made several really great moves lately which - just like the Cup win - made everyone forget all the years of bad moves he made leading up to those points.

I really hope Steen is better than Army and stays around a long time if he is.

NHL GMs in your world sound like the opposite of the kids at Lake Wobegone. They’re all below average.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I wanted him gone in 2019. after the Cup run I stopped complaining for a bit, but I still think he's a flawed GM overall and want someone new at the helm. The problem with mediocre GMs (like Yzerman, who I think is worse than Army) is that even if their mistakes outweigh or outnumber their wins....firing them almost always guarantees you end up with someone worse. Almost all NHL GMs are bad at their jobs, but since its a good ol' boys club they just keep playing musical chairs and there is rarely any new blood (and when there is, you end up with Pejorative Slurs like the guy from the Coyotes that got forced out of the league).

Basically, in a perfect world, Army would have been gone at least 6 years ago and replaced with someone better. However, in the real world 95% of his likely replacements in that timeframe would have worse than him anyway. He's made several really great moves lately which - just like the Cup win - made everyone forget all the years of bad moves he made leading up to those points.

I really hope Steen is better than Army and stays around a long time if he is.

So they should’ve fired him even though there was a 95% chance the next guy would be worse? Nah, I’m good.

I don’t have a great feel yet for how i think Steen will be as a GM but he’s clearly a super thoughtful and smart guy so hopefully he’s able to make the right moves over the years. I for one am glad Army will still be around to help mentor Steener his first couple years as GM.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Army is a great GM and I agree that getting rid of him would likely lead to worse results. Also, I feel like evaluating his moves without taking in the context of ownership/town/market is extremely flawed which seems to be happening here.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I can't watch any of these Stars-Jets games without being pissed about Game 7.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I can't watch any of these Stars-Jets games without being pissed about Game 7.

Same. I watched for about 30 seconds, saw all the fans in white sitting in the seats and thought, “you all shouldn’t be sitting there.” And I just couldn’t. So changed the channel. I’ve been watching some of the other series but I just can’t watch that one. At least not yet. If it gets to Game 6/7 I’ll try to.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Same. I watched for about 30 seconds, saw all the fans in white sitting in the seats and thought, “you all shouldn’t be sitting there.” And I just couldn’t. So changed the channel. I’ve been watching some of the other series but I just can’t watch that one. At least not yet. If it gets to Game 6/7 I’ll try to.

If it had to happen, at least it was the Jets and not some insufferable fanbase. Imagine if Colorado had pulled that on us.