Playoff Analysis and Future Thoughts

[SirPaste]

TBH I feel like if Dizee just cared a little more and posted more the Blues probably would have won it in 4 games.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

My God, man. You're like Gallager here smashing pumpkins. You desperately need some new material.

Gallager reference LMAO

 

[Allens Five Hole]

I can’t agree with posters who are claiming we were only in the series with Winnipeg due to Hellebuyck’s deficiencies.

We dominated them on home ice. He wasn’t great but it’s not like we were only winning 1 goal games. We clearly benefitted from last change and got matchups we craved.

I think it’s pretty clear we were in the series mainly due to them being down several top skaters throughout the series, not due to Hellebuyck, regardless of what media personalities etc want to claim.

Regarding our future, I am cautiously optimistic. I don’t think I can say for certain that we are going to make a jump next year if we don’t upgrade substantially at 2C. I’m worried that by the time some of our youth develop into legitimate NHLers, we will be losing the primes of Parayko and Binner and have holes to replace there.

As another poster said, count me in on Utah being a problem next year. I wasn’t too happy to see them move up so much in the lotto. I think that’s a dangerous team that we will need to beat out for playoff position. On top of the top 3 this season, the Wild getting cap cleared, Utah making strides, and us, there’s not enough chairs at the table for everyone. We can’t be complacent.

 

[Thallis]

Which of our 3 victories do you think goes the other direction if Helly was simply average?

I very much disagree that him being simply average turns 7, 5, and 5 goal nights from the Blues into 1 or 2 goal nights for the Blues. Our expected goals in each of our wins were between 2.4 and 2.95, despite pretty noticeably taking our foots off the gas offensively down the stretch. Helly being better wouldn't have caused Binner to allow more goals. Binner allowed 1 goal until garbage time in games 3 and 6. In both games, the refs started calling game management penalties to control after-the-whistle stuff that was getting out of hand due to the score. They aren't getting those calls in a tight game. And then in game 4 he allowed 1 goal through the whole game.

So in each of our wins, we're talking about Helly needing to allow 3+ fewer goals for it to be a tight game that they'd have a chance to win. And in all 3 games, he'd need to have stopped more than expected just for them to get into an empty net scenario.

Helly being awful was great fun, but I think his play turned likely Blues wins into curb stomps. He'd have needed to be far better than just league average for them to get any of those 3 games to OT. I don't disagree with the overall point that a ton went right in this series for us, but Helly turning pumpkin isn't the only reason we came 1.6 seconds away from winning that series.

Game 4 is a one goal game before Hellebuck has a complete meltdown in the second, starting with that muffin he gave up to Schenn. Hellebuck in anywhere close to his normal form keeps that at 2-1 and who knows what happens at that point? Winnipeg was pushing hard in that period and starting to take over when it happened, I'd bet money we lose that game and the series in 5 under normal circumstances.

 

[TheDizee]

TBH I feel like if Dizee just cared a little more and posted more the Blues probably would have won it in 4 games.

I picked the Jets in 5, I was positive I could give them 1 win in this series. I was somehow able to muster enough strength to get them to 2 extra wins and a few seconds away from 3 extra wins and a series win.

If Kyrou had as much determination in him to fight for pucks and win board battles as I do in having him traded, he would win MVP every season. Instead, he only cares about vBucks and catching new Pokemon on Pokemon GO.

 

[STL fan in MN]

My God, man. You're like Gallager here smashing pumpkins. You desperately need some new material.

How dare you.

He smashed watermelon not pumpkins.

 

[Stealth JD]

How dare you.

He smashed watermelon not pumpkins.

Funny thing is I saw watermelon in my head…I just said ‘pumpkin’ presumably because of the band…and cognitive decline. LOL

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

TBH I feel like if Dizee just cared a little more and posted more the Blues probably would have won it in 4 games.

Dizee went ice cold on his GDT's. He knows it which is why he's trying to scapegoat Kyrou, to deflect the attention from his lack of playoff performance.

 

[Xerloris]

Dizee went ice cold on his GDT's. He knows it which is why he's trying to scapegoat Kyrou, to deflect the attention from his lack of playoff performance.

you know, you're right. Dizee is the one that let us down in game 7

 

[execwrite1]

The electro-shock therapy helped and after coming out of a catatonic state I'm eating solid food.

We'll get 'em next year.

Let's Go Blues!

 

[ds774622]

We had so much go right in that series that typically does not. We faced a historically bad goaltending performance from the most expensive player on the Jet's roster while they were missing an entire top 6 line and still couldn't close it out. A team with real cup aspirations should have blown through Winnipeg in the state they were in. The path you're describing, essentially gooning our way to the cup final, l isn't a real thing. It hasn't happened in decades, why would we think that's an actual path? Why is our path to success that other teams' stars get hurt and ours aren't? I want the franchise to be in a state where on paper and on ice we should be dominant in the opening rounds of the playoffs, with players who can take over a conference final. That's how you create decade long contention windows, not play "what ifs" on if we can hurt important enough players. That's what loser franchises who play bullshit hockey do.

Hasn't happened in decades? Florida is LITERALLY doing it as we speak, last year, and probably the year before too. Unless you're specifically talking about the Blues, which we were absolutely labeled goons in 2019 especially after the Barbashev and Sunny suspensions.

 

[Thallis]

Hasn't happened in decades? Florida is LITERALLY doing it as we speak, last year, and probably the year before too. Unless you're specifically talking about the Blues, which we were absolutely labeled goons in 2019 especially after the Barbashev and Sunny suspensions.

Florida was and is an elite defensive team. How many players did the injured on route to the cup? I could be wrong, but I don't remember any. I remember the knies hit the previous year, but nothing last year. The 2019 blues were on of the best defensive teams of the modern era as well. When I say "gooning their way to final" I'm not talking about being a team that people think is dirty, I'm talking about beating better teams because we injure their best players every series.

 

[ds774622]

Florida was and is an elite defensive team. How many players did the injured on route to the cup? I could be wrong, but I don't remember any. I remember the knies hit the previous year, but nothing last year. The 2019 blues were on of the best defensive teams of the modern era as well. When I say "gooning their way to final" I'm not talking about being a team that people think is dirty, I'm talking about beating better teams because we injure their best players every series.

 

[Brian39]

Game 4 is a one goal game before Hellebuck has a complete meltdown in the second, starting with that muffin he gave up to Schenn. Hellebuck in anywhere close to his normal form keeps that at 2-1 and who knows what happens at that point? Winnipeg was pushing hard in that period and starting to take over when it happened, I'd bet money we lose that game and the series in 5 under normal circumstances.

I didn't like Helly's compete on that Schenn goal, but that was a high danger scoring chance. Parayko fed a would-be back door tap in pass from the goal line that get slowed/stopped by a sliding Jets defender and then Helly's outstretched stick. Schenn's stick was 1 to 2 feet from the puck when it touched Helly's stick and then he quickly corralled it and roofed it. Again, I didn't like Helly's compete on the puck but basically every goalie is going into RVH and attempting to block the pass like Helly did in that situation. And it is far from a given that a better reaction prevents Schenn from corralling that loose puck. That's pretty far from a muffin. And then we scored again a minute later on a point shot that was going wide until it tipped of a Jets player's pants 1 foot before going into Helly's glove.

I really disagree that those two goals were a Helly meltdown. At least 1 of those goes in 90% of the time and both go in a reasonable amount of time. And even if we say it should have still been a 1 goal game at intermission AND Helly makes a better effort to stop the Thomas goal, the Jets had a good 3rd period but Binner shut the door completely that night. Binner stopped 30 of 31 in that game. I really disagree that we can assume that a goalie on his game stops all 3 goals we scored in late 2nd/early 3rd PLUS the Jets generate more/better chances to score on Binner.

 

[pseudoswede]

What should we do with Krug's cap space? Maybe lock a contract extension for both Holloway and Broberg?

 

[Brian39]

What should we do with Krug's cap space? Maybe lock a contract extension for both Holloway and Broberg?

I think that any "use" of his cap space should (and will) be directed at plugging roster holes heading into the 2025/26 season when those two are still on their current deals. We have tons of cap flexibility for 2026/27 and beyond (the time period where Broberg and Holloway's raises would impact our cap).

In the summer of 2026 we have to give raises to Broberg, Holloway, Bolduc and Fowler (or a replacement for Fowler). But we also currently have $28M coming off the books plus the announced $8.5M cap increase, which leaves us currently with $42M in space for 2026/27 plus the expected $6.5M LTIR relief for Krug. Let's say we max out the Krug LTIR relief and add $13M in cap commitments this summer (that extend past 2025/26). That still leaves us with $29M in cap space plus Krug's presumed $6.5M LTIR relief for 2026/27. That plethora of cap space is what we will "use" to give out those raises.

Then in the summer of 2027 we have to extend/replace Snuggy/Neighbours/Binner. But we also have another $24M coming off the books this summer plus another $9.5M announced increase to the salary cap.

Then in the summer of 2028 you have Dvorsky/Stenberg/Lindstein/etc coming off their ELCs and hopefully deserving raises. Schenn's $6.5M comes off the books that summer and we'll see what is happening with the cap.

The 3 summers following this one are structured really well in terms of aging/declining high-cost vets coming off the books as young players are due their raises. Obviously you can spend your way into reduced flexibility by giving out dumb money, but having $28M and then $24M come off the books in back to back summers while the cap jumps substantially allows you to very comfortably lock up your blossoming young talent whose raises will be equally staggered. We are incredibly well positioned to use our current cap space to add pieces that help in 2025/26 and beyond.

 

[Louie the Blue]

We took President's trophy team to the brink when their MVP candidate goalie turned into a pumpkin. If Helle turned in even a league average performance, it would have been less close. We played great but we played at 95%, they played at 75% and we still lost.

6-9 sure. Maybe that doesn't move the needle. But 10th would have given us #1 OA, not the Isle. And that does move the needle. It's a Fowler level floor LD for potentialy a decade instead of 2 years.

The only games I think Hellebuyck melted down were 3 and 4. I think the Jets skaters are to blame for Game 6. And if you think the Blues played to 95% of their potential for the series, I’d heavily disagree.

The long stretches of no offensive pressure from the forwards in Games 1, 5, and 7 for the Blues are as about inexcusable as Hellbuyck’s performance for the series.

 

[LogosBlue]

I think DA is going to pull all the strings to land Marner and flip Kyrou for young RD and or futures. That would be a serious upgrade on wing and fill a RD hole

 

[Stealth JD]

I think DA is going to pull all the strings to land Marner and flip Kyrou for young RD and or futures. That would be a serious upgrade on wing and fill a RD hole

Can you see DA spending $13M/yr on a free agent? That's never been his M.O.
I think he'd prefer to roll out an offense that can cause death by a thousand cuts, rather than load up on expensive stars at the top of the roster.

 

[Majorityof1]

The only games I think Hellebuyck melted down were 3 and 4. I think the Jets skaters are to blame for Game 6. And if you think the Blues played to 95% of their potential for the series, I’d heavily disagree.

The long stretches of no offensive pressure from the forwards in Games 1, 5, and 7 for the Blues are as about inexcusable as Hellbuyck’s performance for the series.

Helle had 3 games under .800 and 2 more under .850 out of 7. He has only hit or bettered the league average from last year's playoffs, .905, in one game. 5 of 7 games were well below league average.

The long stretches of no pressure were when the Jets were shutting down what we were doing and we didn't have the talent to overcome that. I didn't see us making mistakes or playing lazy. I saw a better team with the ability to dictate matchups taking advantage of our weakened middle 6. My argument was the team was not good enough to compete without Helle playing poorly. Pointing out long stretches where we weren't competitive kind of proves my point.

 

[LogosBlue]

Can you see DA spending $13M/yr on a free agent? That's never been his M.O.
I think he'd prefer to roll out an offense that can cause death by a thousand cuts, rather than load up on expensive stars at the top of the roster.

I think in his press conference that he talked about acquiring a 200ft offensive weapon. That sure sounds like Marner to me. It could also be several others in the league as well but when i heard those words...my brain immediately said, Marner. And yes, I think if he can offload Kyrou (which alot of teams would be interested in) that he would sign Marner to 12M to 13M a year contract. As many have said, this is his last hurrah and i think he may do some things to cement his legacy.

 

[Stlblue50]

Can you see DA spending $13M/yr on a free agent? That's never been his M.O.
I think he'd prefer to roll out an offense that can cause death by a thousand cuts, rather than load up on expensive stars at the top of the roster.

Marner doesn’t scream playoff built and looking at his stats he’s much more of a playmaker racking in the assists on an offensively stacked Toronto team. I don’t see him putting up those numbers here. Only 13 goals in 65 playoff games.

I also agree that Army isnt one to go crazy and spend big on one UFA. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t sign at least a 3C. Would love to trade Faulk and his 6.5 but that would probably require a pick to go with and we are running out of those.

Imagine what our defense would look like without the Broberg and Fowler pick ups! Both for only two 2nds!!!

 

[TheDizee]

I think DA is going to pull all the strings to land Marner and flip Kyrou for young RD and or futures. That would be a serious upgrade on wing and fill a RD hole

That is going to require going out on a limb and dumping Kyrou before his NTC kicks in and then hoping you don't lose a bidding war for Marner. It is quite risky.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I didn’t see any of Armstrong’s meaningful player acquisitions coming before they happened this past year. I can’t even bring myself to speculate. I’m just looking forward to seeing his next trick.

 

[LogosBlue]

That is going to require going out on a limb and dumping Kyrou before his NTC kicks in and then hoping you don't lose a bidding war for Marner. It is quite risky.

A risk i'm hoping they are willing to make with the emergence of Snuggy and Goalduc.