Players peaking later?

[Hippasus]

I think Crosby and Ovechkin tricked people into remembering players as peaking early. McDavid, Gretzky, Matthews, and many more had their most productive seasons at 26. That’s always been the athletic prime but some players are exceptions to the rule.

Richard, Orr, Gretzky, Yzerman, Lemieux, Ovechkin, Crosby: early 20s statistical peak.

The majority of the rest, including Howe, Bobby Hull, Brett Hull, Jagr, Kucherov, Mackinnon: mid to late 20s makes sense.

There will always be exceptions like John Bucyk, Ray Whitney, and Tim Thomas.

 

[JianYang]

Since when was was 22years of age considered a player's peak?

 

[jaric1862]

Since around 2016ish, junior hockey and the pro game have completely diverged. At the junior level, there’s a huge emphasis on speed, skill, and offense … It’s essentially a ‘pond hockey’ style now. With the NHL, it’s remained rooted in its traditional focus on size, physicality, and strong defensive play, etc. This has made it much harder for talented junior players to transition and make an immediate impact in the NHL. It takes players a little longer to get their feet under them.

 

[GOilers88]

Always thought players hit their primes in the mid to late twenties, stats be dammed. Won't find many complete players in their early twenties.

 

[Regal]

There was some statistical analysis I had read some years back that showed that statistically players peaked around 22-23 years of age, which is where I got that from. IIRC it was looking at historical data across a long period, but I can't remember the details. I've also found this to be a rather commonly driven narrative across the years.

I don’t believe those numbers ever fully accounted for league scoring and/or did so poorly. Because league scoring mostly went down for years until recently, except for the spike after the lockout, it meant a lot of players had their highest scoring seasons earlier.

It also didn’t account for injuries. So, players like Lemieux who might have had his best statistical season at age 27 in 92-93 if he wasn’t injured get considered to have peaked earlier because they were healthy. Or guys like Lindros and Kariya who were never the same after a young age weren’t able to have the older seasons they might have.

I think it also tended to focus on the top tier players who came into the league as already good. I think players who started slow have always had a bit later peaks toward the mid 20s. There’s also something to be said about focusing only on a single season. A guy’s three best years might be at 23, 26 and 28, with all of them being quite close, but if the age 23 season was the best that’s all that gets counted. I wonder if multiple seasons should be included in data provided they’re within a similar range. With someone like Gretzky, there isn’t a lot of statistical variation between age 21 and age 27 in his per game numbers relative to the league. So whether someone takes 21 where his peak goalscoring was or 25 where his peak point totals were is going to affect the results.

At the same time, if we’re just talking about the currently league, I do think a series of weaker drafts is a problem, and covid affecting development probably is a part of that. There haven’t been too many offensive stars to enter the league since Makar

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

I think it was more than just those two. And it got more rare for guys to be productive in their 30s.

The players you listed are pretty special. In the 90s and early 2000s you saw a lot of non generational players age really well. Then for a few years after 2005 it was more rare and some players just flat out couldn't keep up with the speed of the game.

I think it is true that players seem to be aging better right now. Maybe covid development had something to do with that, that there has been little roll over in the top scorers in the past 4 or 5 years. But I think it's just that players who came in around 2013 or later we were more prepped to adapt to a fast game.

Yeah they're special players but the 25ish-28 rule applies to all players. I can make an exhaustive list of all player's and their statistical prime but I don't have the time and wouldn't tell me anything I don't know. Doesn't mean their production will be Matthews-like- just the statistical offensive peak for a player.

Richard, Orr, Gretzky, Yzerman, Lemieux, Ovechkin, Crosby: early 20s statistical peak.

The majority of the rest, including Howe, Bobby Hull, Brett Hull, Jagr, Kucherov, Mackinnon: mid to late 20s makes sense.

There will always be exceptions like John Bucyk, Ray Whitney, and Tim Thomas.

Incorrect. Gretzky's all time peak of 215 points was his age 25 season. Ovechkin was a freak of nature at a young age and Sid's prime was never actualized as he had a nasty injury at the time.

That's not true. Gretzky was 24-25 for his 215 point season, and 22-23 for his peak season by PPG. Matthews peaked in PPG at 24, McDavid peaked in PPG at 24.

Point stands. 25-28. Although I thought it was his 26aged season initially. McDavid hit 150+ points at age 25/26 season. And Matthews scored 69 goals at 26.

Just going by players of my own team: Tage Thompson finally broke out at 25. Dahlin is 24 and appears to have taken a new step with 19 points in 23 games. (Although d-men peak a bit later generally). Alex Tuch broke out as PPG at age 26 after years of being a 50ish pt. forward and he is PPG this season too. Goalies a different story. Goalies usually aren't even regulars at 24. (Unless drafted high or unusually good for their age)

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

delete mods plz, double post. gotta maintain that post/like ratio

 

[DFC]

Yeah they're special players but the 25ish-28 rule applies to all players. I can make an exhaustive list of all player's and their statistical prime but I don't have the time and wouldn't tell me anything I don't know. Doesn't mean their production will be Matthews-like- just the statistical offensive peak for a player.

Incorrect. Gretzky's all time peak of 215 points was his age 25 season. Ovechkin was a freak of nature at a young age and Sid's prime was never actualized as he had a nasty injury at the time.

Point stands. 25-28. Although I thought it was his 26aged season initially. McDavid hit 150+ points at age 25/26 season. And Matthews scored 69 goals at 26.

Just going by players of my own team: Tage Thompson finally broke out at 25. Dahlin is 24 and appears to have taken a new step with 19 points in 23 games. (Although d-men peak a bit later generally). Alex Tuch broke out as PPG at age 26 after years of being a 50ish pt. forward and he is PPG this season too. Goalies a different story. Goalies usually aren't even regulars at 24. (Unless drafted high or unusually good for their age)

I agree with you. I just think we saw a blip that lasted about a decade where players were hitting their primes sooner.

 

[Golden_Jet]

top 1-10 in scoring, the ages are: 25, 27, 28, 29, 31, 27, 29, 29, 28, 27.
Top 11-20 in scoring, the ages are: 26, 27, 27, 27, 26, 22, 33, 28, 26, 37.

The only player breaking the pattern there is Stützle. In the top 30, the only player under 25 is Jack Hughes.

Stutzle is (22) a year younger than Hughes.
Hughes was drafted a year earlier.

 

[Matsun]

Pretty simple, the younger generation of NHL stars just isn’t as good as the one that came before it. Maybe Covid had some impact but just looking from roughly the 2018 draft onwards there’s not been a ton of offensive stars relative to the norm.

Because of the rise in scoring it's gone under the radar how underwhelming the drafts have been when it comes to forwards for a while now. I think Elias Petterson and Jason Robertson are the only players drafted after 2016 to have hit 100 points and neither of them are looking like future superstars. Jack Hughes flashed superstar potential last year (5th in PPG over the calendar year) but is not producing at the same level right now. Recent drafts are obviously too soon to tell but I don't really see guys like Wyatt Johnson scoring 110 points in a season. I really liked the forwards from the Bedard draft though and I think they can become really good. Sadly I think if Bedard was at the McDavid/Crosby level he would already be a top 10-5 forward, but hopefully he is ends up MacKinnon level.

 

[ClydeLee]

There was some statistical analysis I had read some years back that showed that statistically players peaked around 22-23 years of age, which is where I got that from. IIRC it was looking at historical data across a long period, but I can't remember the details. I've also found this to be a rather commonly driven narrative across the years.

Numerous stats people have had graphs and data about it. Idk of it is changing or if they ever did deep dives historically if it was equal to the current era.

There's always a lot more to think about these than just. This age spot means this, like not all younger guys getting opportunities equally.