It brings me much schadenfreude to see Cutter down there at <0.5ppg.
Player Discussion Will Smith
- Thread starter Shark Finn
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Thats only since january 1st. He has been pretty consistent since early december, late november.
I'm not going to post this in the main board Calder thread, because that place is a hive of villainy, but I kind of think Will Smith has looked like the best rookie in the league for the past month. Doubt he sustains it, and zero chance he's better than Macklin over the course of their careers, but Will has been unreal. Really nice to see after the slow start and all the doubt early on.
no doubt. As a major 'Smith to AHL' supporter, I am in shock at the level of improvement. I am not sure Ive ever seen a player take the kind of strides he has within a season. He went from being physically dominated, turnover machine who was minus a ton and clearly did not belong... to a bona fide top liner, point per game producer who plays a complete game.
it's not just that the points have started to come, its also his defensive play, and decision making. He is suddenly a stellar two-way player! Amazing! Hats off to Will, but also to Warso and the rest of the coaching staff. That's some of the best teaching I have ever seen.
I knows it's a crazy take, but I would nominate warso for coach of the year. The sharks were right there, tied or leading in the third period in the vast majority of games. So close, and despite all the adversity, all the nail biters that just went wrong, all the trades of all the talent, and Warso just keeps 'em plugging along and putting together high quality games. What he has done with a team that completely lacks size, has teenagers as your best players, has no real NHL D... its great work.
While I agree with the „improvement“-part of the above post, let’s not get carried away. Smith is not even close to being a stellar two-way forward. Heck, I don’t even know if he will ever be a (decent) two-way forward. Yes, he has improved his d habits and play in the d zone quite a lot. But the base line (first 20 games or so) was „clearly worst defensive forward in the whole league“
Edit: His stat-line since that Boston game:
19 GP, 7G, 13 A, +7
Edit: His stat-line since that Boston game:
19 GP, 7G, 13 A, +7
I've been hoping Smith ultimately turns into something like Scheifele. He's likely never going to be worth much defensively, but if Celebrini can be our two-way, all-situations 1C, Smith can feast as a point-per-game 2C and power play anchor. That's my hope, anyway.
I have been watching his play in his own zone. Hes making much better decisions, whether thats pitchforking pucks up and out when there is no clear outlet to dumping pucks deeps instead of trying to make neutral zone jukes. His stick positioning for blocking passes and disrupting opposition D has improved a lot and he is breaking up plays backchecking far more. His skating off the puck is also vastly improved.
He's playing wing, so his defensive play is never gunna be as clear as a center's. His responsibilities are much higher in the zone, but his job centers around getting pucks out from along the boards, being a good outlet option himself, and then making smart plays through the neutral zone and avoiding turnovers. its also about not forcing plays that just arent there and lading to high turnovers and chances against. Hes improved on all those metrices by leaps and bounds.
I would say, in the last two months, he has already reached 'decent' defensive status. Maybe 'stellar' went a bit far, but I don't see bad things happening too often when he is on the ice in any zone.
hes already playing that role as a 19 year old (at least for a few more days.) If the last two months are any indication, we are just scratching the surface.
Smith and celly could be Crosby-Malkin level good. Seems like hyperbole, and maybe it is a little (Smith aint close to malkin sized and crosby is arguably a top 10 player of all time so thats a crazy high bar for celebrini), but given their rookie production as teenagers, particularly in the latter half of the year, I think it's not unreasonable. Both could easily end up 100 pt players 5-7 years from now.
Like you said, 20 pts, +7 in the last 19 games from smith (almost two months). Celly is also pretty much point per game from about 10 games into the year.
Point per game at age 18 or 19 is practically unheard of.... Only a few selet superstars have been able to do that.
1. Celebrini has a higher point per game pace than matthews did. Better than Hughers. Better than MacKinnon. Better than Hall, Tavares, RNH. Better than Stamkos, Kane...
About the same as 'generational' bedard, and better than him this year. Hes not even much behind mcdavid (and 6 months younger than mcdavid in his debut date). Hes definiely behind crosby and ovie, but still, his rookie year ranks up there amongst the best... Top 5 point per game numbers as an 18 year old in the last 20+ years.
2. Smith started slow of course, but his production the last 2 months now rivals those aforementioned superstars, and only seems to be getting better. I think its fair to expect that he will continue this pace and may even accelerate it.
And, amazingly, the two of them have done that without a reasonable puck mover on D than can skate, make a good outlet, and also draw defender in the O zone and open up space. Imagine how good they would be with a 23-24 year old Schaefer and dick on the point, forcing defending teams to spread out and opening up so much more space in the nuetral zone in transition and down low in the O zone.
Overall, the progression of those two is beyond my wildest expectations. You can really see the light at the end of the tunnel right now. It's not there yet, but you can see it coming. Add in Ek who is on pace for a 65pt/82gm pace, and I think we could see THREE point per game players next season.
I cant wait to see what cherny, musty, and Dick can do next year too. I wonder if Cherny, in particular, may become a 19 year old dominant force as well next year....
I think he’s graduated from “guaranteed puck battle loss” to “initially contests the puck in a battle.” I want to see him stop doing so many fly byes before we call him decent.
Smith has been excellent, and I agree that he is not a legit Calder contender, but why is being a "stellar 2-way forward" part of the criteria for Calder consideration when Buston as Hodge calls him is a turnstile defensively despite being, you know, a defenseman?
Because Hutson is a top-10 offensive defenseman in the league and a top-5 PPQB. That's how he provides value despite being sheltered and very bad defensively. If Smith were scoring at a 90 point pace, no one would complain about his defense.
But it is pretty cool that Smith hit my "I would be happy with this" full season point total in only 59 games. So I'm not finding much to complain about.
If a player scores six goals a game, but never even enters his own zone unless he's forced to by the refs (for icing, say), he's be the most valuable player who ever lived despite having less defensive value than any player in history.
Value is about total impact. If you put up a ton of value one way, and are atrocious the other way, you can be more valuable than someone who is good both ways.
Scoring six goals every game is an impossible hypothetical anyway (which I use intentionally to illustrate the point), and the Calder is an award for past performance.
Jux playing with house money now. You wanted 80 points combined? we are at 84. If Cele and Smith even finish at a.5pt per game pace they would eclipse a 100. Lets flirt with 110 points.
I think Smiths defensive play to start the year was so god awful bad that any marginal improvement has made him look a ton better. But a ton better is still not average given how bad it was to start.
He was literally absent on defense early in the year. Now he's at least in plays.
Points aside, I'm not sure I've ever seen an almost 20 year old so scared of physical contact. They really need to get him more engaged + in the gym in the offseason.
oddly enough it works for him at this point, at least he can get back in the play if he doesn't inevitably get destroyed physically
Sooo many, Gretzky, Janney, Oates, Marleau, Havlat, J Toews, Lafontaine, P Turgeon, Yashin, Lebeau, Kurri.........
I wouldn’t say Marleau was afraid of contact, I just don’t think anyone could catch him to hit him.
Smith is just tiny (strength-wise) compared to a regular NHLer, so there’s no reason to try and engage when you’re just going to get thrown on your ass. He’s been much better with his stick, positioning, etc…
