Speculation: Player Discussion: Will Smith

[coooldude]

He'll be 20yo in 6 weeks

You did all that work to clip the quote and failed to read the part where I said "last year," referring to his 18yo season in the NCAA.

"He didn't look big or strong in NCAA so it's no surprise at all there, and he looked variably slow or fast last year which many speculated might just be the effects of lifting heavy / not yet having a deep fitness base as an 18yo."

 

[LilLeeroy]

He is a pretty divisive player. Plenty of homers kept saying he was a passenger on the BC line, especially NYR and Caps fans because their draftee must be the best.

The EP guys just don't understand that doing good things away from the puck is also possible. They love puck dominant guys who you can see are doing well without needing to think too hard.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Among forwards with 500 minutes played at 5v5, Smith is now up to 95th in 5v5 points/60. So he just makes the cut for top-line scoring rate.

Even if you just look at 5v5 points, he is tied for 128th. And this is with only 2 secondary assists. So at 5v5 he is indisputably scoring at the rate of a top-6 forward.

I will post his player card with some commentary tomorrow after the model finishes running but his EV offensive on-ice numbers are all comfortably top-6 quality as well. Again, a contender probably doesn't have him in their top-6 due to his flaws, but offensively he is playing like a top-6 F at 5v5. That's a massive jump from how he started the year.

 

[Star Platinum]

You did all that work to clip the quote and failed to read the part where I said "last year," referring to his 18yo season in the NCAA.

"He didn't look big or strong in NCAA so it's no surprise at all there, and he looked variably slow or fast last year which many speculated might just be the effects of lifting heavy / not yet having a deep fitness base as an 18yo."

Curious for those of you that know - how much of being a fast skater is mechanics vs athletic ability?

 

[tiburon12]

Among forwards with 500 minutes played at 5v5, Smith is now up to 95th in 5v5 points/60. So he just makes the cut for top-line scoring rate.

Even if you just look at 5v5 points, he is tied for 128th. And this is with only 2 secondary assists. So at 5v5 he is indisputably scoring at the rate of a top-6 forward.

I will post his player card with some commentary tomorrow after the model finishes running but his EV offensive on-ice numbers are all comfortably top-6 quality as well. Again, a contender probably doesn't have him in their top-6 due to his flaws, but offensively he is playing like a top-6 F at 5v5. That's a massive jump from how he started the year.

In this sense, I wonder how much growing and adding some weight will improve his confidence in the corners and with puck possession/retention. Almost every game there are pucks that a player who is confident in their size and strength would win, but Smith shies way and tries to make a proactive defensive play. Contrast that with a player like Duehr, who knows exactly how he can use his size to make smart puck plays.

This ins't a knock on him, but he very visibly has a boy's body still. Im not expecting him to bowling ball through people like Zetterlund, but i imagine a lot will start to round out once he gets stronger

 

[MackAttack71]

You did all that work to clip the quote and failed to read the part where I said "last year," referring to his 18yo season in the NCAA.

"He didn't look big or strong in NCAA so it's no surprise at all there, and he looked variably slow or fast last year which many speculated might just be the effects of lifting heavy / not yet having a deep fitness base as an 18yo."

My bad. Missed the context there.

 

[Barrie22]

Smith’s 6 game point streak is the 2nd longest out of the rookies this season. Only behind hutsons 9.

 

[Jargon]

Smith’s 6 game point streak is the 2nd longest out of the rookies this season. Only behind hutsons 9.

But think about how long his AHL streak would’ve been

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

As promised. EV offence play driving and finishing are very solid. 5v5 primary assist rate near the top of the league. (I don't put that much stock in it, it's just 10 assists - he's just done it in very few minutes).

I wouldn't sweat the PP number too much just because it's a pretty small sample and those numbers aren't always super reliable in general. I don't think there's too much of a difference in what his long term forecast would be whether that number is 0%, 2%, or 30% - the key is he hasn't clicked on the PP yet but he has the tools to do so.

The EV defence has been discussed ad nauseum but that is what is really dragging him down at this point. He's got a long way to go there, but if his EV defence were just bad, he would already be a decent top-6 F at 19.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Don't look now, but Smith is on pace for 40 points mostly at even strength playing 14.5 minutes a night and getting no meaningful PP time. Couple of more games like he's been playing lately and he could catch up to Stankoven for fourth in rookie scoring.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

View attachment 970283
As promised. EV offence play driving and finishing are very solid. 5v5 primary assist rate near the top of the league. (I don't put that much stock in it, it's just 10 assists - he's just done it in very few minutes).

I wouldn't sweat the PP number too much just because it's a pretty small sample and those numbers aren't always super reliable in general. I don't think there's too much of a difference in what his long term forecast would be whether that number is 0%, 2%, or 30% - the key is he hasn't clicked on the PP yet but he has the tools to do so.

The EV defence has been discussed ad nauseum but that is what is really dragging him down at this point. He's got a long way to go there, but if his EV defence were just bad, he would already be a decent top-6 F at 19.

So a possible +0.5Labanc but instead of shooting it's his passing. MG should get something good in a few years if he continues to juice him up and can realize this dude will never be a threat on any serious team.