Value of: PK Subban 50% retained - $4.5mil AAV

[seanlinden]

I agree, I could see that happening if Toronto has a 1 or 2 year contract they want to get rid of plus a 2nd or 3rd and he'd be headed out

Even at 50% retention, Toronto doesn't have the space for him... lets say you get double retention, and take Nick Ritchie back as well, the Leafs are still over the cap. The would likely need to trade Travis Dermott for a league-minimum forward to make it work, then that torpedo's any chance of adding some more support up front.

For a team looking at Subban, will probably also look at Justin Braun... who makes $1.8m. If Philly needs to retain, $900k.

Let's assume we say that Justin Braun is worth a 2nd with nothing else attached.

- Last year 25% of Foligno's $5.5m cost a 4th to SJ
- Last year 25% of Savard's $4.25m cost a 4th to DET
- For Subban, it's $9m, but only $2m in actual cash, so maybe 25% retention on him costs a 5th, but could see it being higher with some teams just not able to absorb the $2.25m cap hit to do the retention.

Would you rather have Justin Braun at $1.8m or PK Subban at $2.25m?

My sense is Braun... so maybe it's the kind of thing where it's a 3rd for Subban + a 5th, with the 5th going to whomever is double-retaining.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

Even at 50% retention, Toronto doesn't have the space for him... lets say you get double retention, and take Nick Ritchie back as well, the Leafs are still over the cap. The would likely need to trade Travis Dermott for a league-minimum forward to make it work, then that torpedo's any chance of adding some more support up front.

For a team looking at Subban, will probably also look at Justin Braun... who makes $1.8m. If Philly needs to retain, $900k.

Let's assume we say that Justin Braun is worth a 2nd with nothing else attached.

- Last year 25% of Foligno's $5.5m cost a 4th to SJ
- Last year 25% of Savard's $4.25m cost a 4th to DET
- For Subban, it's $9m, but only $2m in actual cash, so maybe 25% retention on him costs a 5th, but could see it being higher with some teams just not able to absorb the $2.25m cap hit to do the retention.

Would you rather have Justin Braun at $1.8m or PK Subban at $2.25m?

Teams that miss on their original target will move on to Subban, he certainly won't be anyone's first choice but someone will take him.
Didn't realize the Leafs had zero cap space though. I'm sure they could figure it out if they wanted him though

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I'd be surprised if Subban moves, for logistical reasons. A lot of deadline activity happens on deadline day. GMs do have a tendency to delay, hoping that someone overpays before accepting reality. The Devils likely will have to wait for the market to clear before teams turn to fallback options.

The problem is his cap hit. Few potential buyers can handle $4.5 mil, the cheapest New Jersey can make him. A deal most likely has to involve a 3rd party, but the teams willing to do that for fair value will have their phones ringing off the hook for 1st or 2nd tier targets to other contenders, presumably at relatively higher prices (25% has been worth a 4th or 5th up to this point). There may not be a retention slot available at 2:45 or whatever for a low priority player.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

I'd be surprised if Subban moves, for logistical reasons. A lot of deadline activity happens on deadline day. GMs do have a tendency to delay, hoping that someone overpays before accepting reality. The Devils likely will have to wait for the market to clear before teams turn to fallback options.

The problem is his cap hit. Few potential buyers can handle $4.5 mil, the cheapest New Jersey can make him. A deal most likely has to involve a 3rd party, but the teams willing to do that for fair value will have their phones ringing off the hook for 1st or 2nd tier targets to other contenders, presumably at relatively higher prices (25% has been worth a 4th or 5th up to this point). There may not be a retention slot available at 2:45 or whatever for a low priority player.

You're completely disregarding the most likely scenario though, the Devils take a contract of similar cap hit that the acquiring team doesn't want

 

[burstnbloom]

What would your team offer? Devils can take back a bad contract with 1-2 years remaining on the term to make it work.

I want to watch the world burn.

PK to Boston, 50% retained

Forbort to Devils - hey he's good on the PK.

 

[HockeyVirus]

While I agree he's not anywhere near the player he once was I think a playoff team wouldn't mind adding him for some depth, especially if the Devils take a contract in return, which I assume they would as most teams don't have 4.5 in caps pace

This changes things. I'd do a 2nd + Ritchie for Subban @ 4.5

 

[HugeInTheShire]

This changes things. I'd do a 2nd + Ritchie for Subban @ 4.5

This is exactly what I think a Subban trade will end up looking like, and the Devils should jump at this kind of deal

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

You're completely disregarding the most likely scenario though, the Devils take a contract of similar cap hit that the acquiring team doesn't want

When you start looking at the teams that could be interested, expiring contracts that could act as cap balancers are not in abundance. Carolina has been the team most frequently in the rumor mill for a RD (Klingberg) and it can only barely afford Subban by sending Bear the other way and going down to a 21 man roster. Toronto would require New Jersey taking back a multi-year dump. Tampa has nothing undesirable to move.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

When you start looking at the teams that could be interested, expiring contracts that could act as cap balancers are not in abundance. Carolina has been the team most frequently in the rumor mill for a RD (Klingberg) and it can only barely afford Subban by sending Bear the other way and going down to a 21 man roster. Toronto would require New Jersey taking back a multi-year dump. Tampa has nothing undesirable to move.

I think the Devils wouldn't mind taking a two year deal if the pick is right or adding a 3rd team to lessen the blow.
I think Carolina make sense if they can't land Klingberg or anyone else better than PK, Toronto make a little less sense as they have no space at all but have 2 year deals they'd like to remove and TB is a loooong shot for the reasons you mentioned.
I also wouldn't be surprised if it's not a contender but a team trying to ensure a playoff spot that takes a shot on him

 

[TBF1972]

If you were a team facilitating this trade, wouldn't a 3rd be like the minimum for you to even waste your time with it?

but you think the devils would entertain the first part of your proposal for future consideration? the devils save like 500k and don't have a rhd to replace him. either the devils get something they like or subban plays out his contract. future consideration won't move him out of new jersey.

 

[seanlinden]

Teams that miss on their original target will move on to Subban, he certainly won't be anyone's first choice but someone will take him.
Didn't realize the Leafs had zero cap space though. I'm sure they could figure it out if they wanted him though

To be fair... there are a long list of defencemen rumoured / likely to be available that are more desirable than Subban. His cap hit also excludes a good chunk of teams.

In Toronto's case, he's probably 5 or 6 down the list of realistic targets, and that's assuming 75pct retention and Ritchie going the other way.

To me, Subban seems like a deal to a team trying to toe the middle ground in the West. (There is no middle ground in the east) Maybe Anaheim cashes out on a defenceman, then gets Subban to backfill.

 

[seanlinden]

This changes things. I'd do a 2nd + Ritchie for Subban @ 4.5

zero chance the Leafs do that. Plus, they don't have the space.

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

My rec team will take him at 100 percent retained. Only if he brings the beer for every game.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I think the Devils wouldn't mind taking a two year deal if the pick is right or adding a 3rd team to lessen the blow.
I think Carolina make sense if they can't land Klingberg or anyone else better than PK, Toronto make a little less sense as they have no space at all but have 2 year deals they'd like to remove and TB is a loooong shot for the reasons you mentioned.
I also wouldn't be surprised if it's not a contender but a team trying to ensure a playoff spot that takes a shot on him

There's a lot that could get moved. Klingberg is the big fish. Ristolainen is flying under the radar. Manson could become available. Braun and Miller are interesting bottom pair solutions of differing styles that require less cap work to make a trade happen. That's not even mentioning scenarios that involve a LD moving over, opening the door for Lindholm, Giordano, Chiarot and Leddy. The D market is as deep as I can recall.

Put everything together and a Subban trade seems like a big hassle for relatively low stakes. Not that it can't happen, but I don't like those odds. If Fitzgerald can't get a trade done before the deadline, he won't deserve criticism.

 

[LTIR]

I think Subban @50% for Barrie would be win win for both sides especially if NJ is also shopping Severson.

NJ gets a longer term RD and Oilers get a different type (more physical) of Dman.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I wonder if the bump in merch sales might be worth it to a team.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

There's a lot that could get moved. Klingberg is the big fish. Ristolainen is flying under the radar. Manson could become available. Braun and Miller are interesting bottom pair solutions of differing styles that require less cap work to make a trade happen. That's not even mentioning scenarios that involve a LD moving over, opening the door for Lindholm, Giordano, Chiarot and Leddy. The D market is as deep as I can recall.

Put everything together and a Subban trade seems like a big hassle for relatively low stakes. Not that it can't happen, but I don't like those odds. If Fitzgerald can't get a trade done before the deadline, he won't deserve criticism.

I'm fairly confident he'll find a taker somewhere, but he's been alright this season and if they don't, I don't mind having him finish his contract in NJ either... kinda like Fitz did with Murray last year, he didn't get an offer that was adequate so he kept him.
I'm different than most Devil fans though, I'd be open to re-signing him assuming it's a serious pay cut and 2 year max

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

I wonder if the bump in merch sales might be worth it to a team.

I wouldn't think there'd be any bump in merch sales.

 

[mouser]

He's playing a shade under 20 minutes a night, I don't know how many 3rd pairing guys are at that TOI he is also only -4 for the season, which considering how bad the Devils are, that isn't too bad, if fact it's the best +/- of any Devils defenseman
I'm not saying he's going to be a hot commodity or anything, but people get too hung up on how far he's fallen to actually pay attention to what he's doing.
I totally understand why though, people here hate Subban and will go out of their way to show how bad he is

Subban is 5th in TOI/G for the Devils defensemen.

i.e. Subban is averaging 3rd pairing minutes with Jersey.

I don’t think many if any payoff teams want to acquire Subban for their 2nd pairing. If teams do want to bolster their 3rd pairing there are cheaper cap hit options and style fits then Subban imo.

 

[Scoresberg]

I could see a re-union between Subban and the Preds. Would be pretty nostalgic to bring him in for one last run.

 

[MightySelanne8]

Subban at 90% retained is worth a 15th round pick. Why would any legit contender want to make their D worse?

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Every team wants defensive depth

That can be found at a much lower cap hit.

 

[Smitty426]

That can be found at a much lower cap hit.

If Devs find a 3rd party to take on an addl half its $2.5M. Actual cash is like $1 as he has been paid up in the summer. There's value there. The TDL gets GM goofy.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If you were a team facilitating this trade, wouldn't a 3rd be like the minimum for you to even waste your time with it?

Based on past examples no.

 

[SDBondra]

I feel like I might swap Justin Schultz for him but I don’t think that really makes either team better and Schultz seems like a really nice guy so maybe I wouldn’t. Subban might handle spot PP duty better I guess.

I’m so unenthusiastic and bored by this idea that I think I’ll just