OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball
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Empoleon8771
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Surprised that Griffin wasn't also on that list, but Fangraphs tends to be conservative with freshly drafted players like him. I figure he's starting as a 45+ FV guy and will rise to the top-100 once he starts having success in the minors.
Pham with a nuke off of Ashcraft yesterday in workouts.
Pham with a nuke off of Ashcraft yesterday in workouts.
ChaosAgent
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- May 8, 2018
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Yeah, TBH the only reason the 10th ranked prospect in last year's draft doesn't make that list is because it's the Pirates drafting him.
Empoleon8771
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Just from checking briefly, all of the guys ranked in Fangraph's top-100 from the draft last year are college draft picks that are 3-4 years older than Griffin and drafted higher than Griffin. I don't think it's that surprising that he's starting out as a likely 45+ FV prospect due to his age.
Wattsburgh
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- Apr 3, 2023
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With this young starting rotation, all the Pirates need to do is sign one big bat and they would be comfortable for the next handful of years. I don’t get it. That one household name can make the difference of guys like Hayes Davis and Cruz getting better and panning out into the minors with Termarr. Makes no sense. Not even financially.
They need to get a real bat but they should be closer to competent lineup this year assuming everyone thats established plays to their norm.
Pham - competent
Cruz - good
Reynolds - good
Bart - competent
Horwitz - competent
Ikf - meh
Hayes - competent when healthy
Cutch - competent
That leaves us needing at least one of Endy, Davis, Yorke or Gonzalez to be good if more can breakout there is a blink and you’ll miss it chance at being an average lineup.
Not good enough. One more set it and forget it bat would be a difference maker.
Pham - competent
Cruz - good
Reynolds - good
Bart - competent
Horwitz - competent
Ikf - meh
Hayes - competent when healthy
Cutch - competent
That leaves us needing at least one of Endy, Davis, Yorke or Gonzalez to be good if more can breakout there is a blink and you’ll miss it chance at being an average lineup.
Not good enough. One more set it and forget it bat would be a difference maker.
DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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ChaosAgent
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- May 8, 2018
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DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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I don't mind getting Heaney in general, but I worry about whatever shoe is going to fall via trade given the vast majority of MLB moves on Cherington's record.
Empoleon8771
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I like adding Heaney by itself and will love it if it comes with a corresponding SP for hitter trade.
Heaney was a guy I was saying all off-season I'd want to sign as a Keller replacement if they traded Keller.
Heaney was a guy I was saying all off-season I'd want to sign as a Keller replacement if they traded Keller.
With heaneys injury history and general meh history, if hes a keller replacement, the keller deal needs to be a no doubter
Empoleon8771
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Between having Heaney as a MLB proven arm and Chandler as a top prospect, I don't think you need to be picky with a Keller return there. It's really a no brainer to move him for a bat if you can do it.
bigdaddyk88
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- Apr 21, 2019
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Heaney is the 4th starter he allows Oviedo to start as the long man and keeps Chandler Burrows Harrington in Indy for a month to not burn a year of service time
DJ Spinoza
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- Aug 7, 2003
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I think a Keller trade has to be a slam dunk regardless of external considerations simply because Keller is a rare type of glue pitcher in an MLB rotation. While he's not flying off the page with total shutdown stuff, the type of pitcher he has become is pretty hard to just fabricate out of nowhere but very important to a team that can consistently win enough to be in a playoff race.
He's very fairly paid and I think well-positioned to help anchor a lot of innings during this pretty short, 3-4 window where we have a chance to win with Skenes. I don't want to suggest he's untouchable, but I fear that he'd be hard to replace, so any return for him has to immediately and decisively solve some problems on the offensive end. We already wasted a big opportunity in 2024, so wasting another in 2025 (which we're already on pace to do given the way this offseason has gone down) would again be inexcusable.
We'll see how the dust settles. I find it hard to believe there isn't some potential trade in the works, but initially, all this means is that there's veteran competition for some of the backend starts. That's probably a good thing in general, and I think getting a veteran LHP starter is probably also a good thing, given that Falter is more of a depth guy anyways. I find it hard to believe Heaney would need to fully compete and earn a spot, so barring some disaster, he's gotta be penciled in as the #4 guy, pending a possible trade.
There's certainly a path to just standing pat with even better pitching which ideally trickles into the bullpen as well. There's risk of injury, but then you'd have the depth to cover it, and if you avoid it, a team like Baltimore might be more antsy for rotation help if they are having trouble keeping pace by sometime in May.
All told, I'll wait and see before reacting more strongly, but my basic position right now is that it would have been much better to just pay less in a trade for Josh Naylor and have him as the starting 1B for this year. He's not a long-term solution, but given that we are seeing clips of Adam Frazier working at 1B, it seems silly to worry about beyond 2025, and at least Naylor would have been a decisive fix at a major position of need, without a big prospect cost. I'm not one to look down my nose at veterans, but I'd rather maybe have Ortiz back and not have Pham and Heaney but have Naylor as the 1B and then figure out something else from there (obviously, both make such trivial salaries that there's no reason we couldn't at least have one of them along with Naylor and a super cheap payroll).
But tldr; feels inevitable that another shoe is dropping in the next week or so.
He's very fairly paid and I think well-positioned to help anchor a lot of innings during this pretty short, 3-4 window where we have a chance to win with Skenes. I don't want to suggest he's untouchable, but I fear that he'd be hard to replace, so any return for him has to immediately and decisively solve some problems on the offensive end. We already wasted a big opportunity in 2024, so wasting another in 2025 (which we're already on pace to do given the way this offseason has gone down) would again be inexcusable.
We'll see how the dust settles. I find it hard to believe there isn't some potential trade in the works, but initially, all this means is that there's veteran competition for some of the backend starts. That's probably a good thing in general, and I think getting a veteran LHP starter is probably also a good thing, given that Falter is more of a depth guy anyways. I find it hard to believe Heaney would need to fully compete and earn a spot, so barring some disaster, he's gotta be penciled in as the #4 guy, pending a possible trade.
There's certainly a path to just standing pat with even better pitching which ideally trickles into the bullpen as well. There's risk of injury, but then you'd have the depth to cover it, and if you avoid it, a team like Baltimore might be more antsy for rotation help if they are having trouble keeping pace by sometime in May.
All told, I'll wait and see before reacting more strongly, but my basic position right now is that it would have been much better to just pay less in a trade for Josh Naylor and have him as the starting 1B for this year. He's not a long-term solution, but given that we are seeing clips of Adam Frazier working at 1B, it seems silly to worry about beyond 2025, and at least Naylor would have been a decisive fix at a major position of need, without a big prospect cost. I'm not one to look down my nose at veterans, but I'd rather maybe have Ortiz back and not have Pham and Heaney but have Naylor as the 1B and then figure out something else from there (obviously, both make such trivial salaries that there's no reason we couldn't at least have one of them along with Naylor and a super cheap payroll).
But tldr; feels inevitable that another shoe is dropping in the next week or so.
Jaded-Fan
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I really like chandlers upside but heaney isnt anything more than roster spackle. Keller while no star himself is a workhorse.
If you move keller there is a real chance all your rotation is, is Skenes, the large range of outcomes of Jones, and a bunch of poop. So imho if your moving the steady presence its need to be for somethin that is a legitimate haul
MrBrightside
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The idea that signing a mediocre 4/5 SP is the predecessor to the big move that we've all been waiting for all offseason is some serious hopium and giving Cherington way more credit than he's earned. Keller is what he is, but while he's not a star, MOR guys with his durability and occasional gems are very valuable. As Ramzi said above, after Skenes, Keller, and maybe Jones, the rotation is a lot of question marks, and while there is upside and potential there, I wouldn't be quick to dump Keller.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Heaney last 3 years: 73 games started, 4.00 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 380 IP
Keller last 3 years: 92 games started, 4.13 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 530 IP
Heaney is 34 years old, stuff is backing off year to year. Worse underlying numbers and no upside to have a “career year” going forward.Heaney last 3 years: 73 games started, 4.00 ERA and 4.22 FIP in 380 IP
Keller last 3 years: 92 games started, 4.13 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 530 IP
Keller also has one of the best health grades in for current mlb starters. Also signed for multiple years.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Heaney:
Keller:
You're really overrating Keller if you think there is a significant difference between the two.
The point of bringing in Heaney and trading Keller is that Heaney is your temporary #3 starter and then Chandler takes over as the #3 starter when he's ready. Heaney himself is a solid rotation guy (probably fringe 3/4 IMO) and Chandler projects to have an upside even higher than that. Frankly it's a complete no brainer to do.
MrBrightside
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There is a significant difference between the two. There's a reason Keller got nearly $100M from a cheap ass organization (and would have gotten it from someone else had the Pirates not paid him) and why Heaney was a street free agent after Spring Training started and was the backup plan to Jose Quintana.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Or another thought: maybe Keller's getting $75 million because he's a lot younger than Heaney.
Keller has value in that he's young and has been extremely healthy as a SP. But in terms of results, he's marginally better than Heaney. Heaney is a fringe #3/4 starter that won a world series 2 years ago as a #4 starter. Keller's probably a workhorse #3 starter.
I simply do not see a legitimate argument for keeping Keller over trading him for a bat, unless the quality of return you'd get just doesn't justify it. This organization simply has too much pitching talent to hold onto a workhorse #3 over trading him for hitting help. I'm not going full Chaos and saying Keller sucks, but it would be horribly misguided for the team to hold onto him over trading him if the returns are good.
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ChaosAgent
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- May 8, 2018
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Keller objectively doesn't suck. But when he has a modicum of expectations on him he shrinks away from them. Every time we start hyping him up he promptly delivers 2 months of 5.50 ERA pitching.
He is like Tristan Jarry Pirates edition. I can't imagine him starting a playoff game and not getting obliterated.
I still wouldn't rule out reading Jones for a much bigger fish, if it is available.
They HAVENT been that different the last few years BUT:
1. Keller HAS been better (3.92 FIP to 4.22)
2. Kellers stuff is better (102 stuff+ to 98)
3. Keller has less risk of skill degredation due to age
4. Keller has less risky health profile
5. Keller has additions year of value due to his contract
6. Range of outcomes significantly favors Keller.
And maybe most importantly of all IF Chandler is ever ready. Chandler is an excellent prospect no doubt but for a team whos goal is to push towards contention you dont leave your SP 3 slot open for a prospect. If Chandler proves himself this season AND everyone else stays healthy THEN it becomes a no brainer next offseason.
Now if you get a no doubt offer (whatever hypothetical that may be) then sure you take the gamble. Otherwise hold onto your strength.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
We're not talking about Heaney on a multiple year deal, we're talking about Heaney on a 1 year deal. And they wouldn't be going into this year with their SP3 slot for a prospect, it would be Heaney until Chandler is ready. And from the sounds of it, Chandler should be ready this year.
I just can't fathom prioritizing the #3 starter position over the absolute massive need for bats this team has when you could have Heaney now and Chandler in the future, plus Ashcraft, Burrows and Harrington as alternates in AAA as other high potential pitchers.
