OT: Pirates Talk: Lets Play Ball
- Thread starter Zirakzigil
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ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Kelly had 3 ejections already, IIRC. He shows emotion and isn't afraid to stand up for his guys.
15-14 with the roster Shelton was on pace to lose well over 100 games with.
Bednar is back on track under him. That's huge.
The offense is consistently better. Cruz is a staple at the leadoff which Shelton shunned repeatedly. Davis showing signs of life.
15-14 with the roster Shelton was on pace to lose well over 100 games with.
Bednar is back on track under him. That's huge.
The offense is consistently better. Cruz is a staple at the leadoff which Shelton shunned repeatedly. Davis showing signs of life.
GilbertSeinfeld
I mean, hey?
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The Davis improvement is the biggest positive of all.
DJ Spinoza
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I don't think we're anywhere near these kinds of posts having meaning, but gotta seize the momentum from this current streak and solid pitchers on the mound in Keller tomorrow and Falter Wednesday to carry out the sweep.
Pretty much need that + 3/4 from the Cubs, and we still won't be very close to games mattering much, but let's just hope for some good baseball to continue.
Pretty much need that + 3/4 from the Cubs, and we still won't be very close to games mattering much, but let's just hope for some good baseball to continue.
bigdaddyk88
Registered User
- Apr 21, 2019
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Amazing catch
The Athletics have a ton of young hitters and not alot pitching. Jack willson kid is having a great season Butler and Soderstorm are studs
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I’m not 100% sold on Kelly, but you simply can’t deny he’s done a great job so far and the change has been a spark for the Pirates. It seems Shelton really lost the room and now the guys are rallying behind Kelly. Between that and guys like Davis finally taking a step forward, they may have something to work with going forward.
This year is a lost cause due to the start, but I think continuing to play well for the rest of the year will put them in a good position for 2026.
This year is a lost cause due to the start, but I think continuing to play well for the rest of the year will put them in a good position for 2026.
DJ Spinoza
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2003
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I forget who was asking about Baseball America and Griffin the other day, but I did listen to a BA podcast about a week ago where they compared Griffin and Tigers prospect Bryce Rainer. They didn't get too far into Griffin, but noted that the main question as he turned pro for a lot of scouts was the hit tool, which he seemed to answer. Given the rest of his tools, the question really now seems to be how huge the hype train is going to get for him, since if things do click and he hits his far right tail outcome, we're talking about an MVP type player.
Obviously for now we need to pump the brakes on that for a guy in A ball (and to be clear, I am the one saying MVP type -they just say that the sky is the limit if he hits his 5% top outcome, which = the same thing), but it seems pretty unanimous that Griffin's pro debut has been as good as it could have possible been.
That's a real boon when you consider the other first round talent that's really popped so far which we could have had with a better draft position: Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz, and Jac Caglianone most come to mind, especially the latter if he starts hitting tanks for a playoff-contending Royals team over the next three months.
I also brought it up because Noah Hiles talked about him during his system update this morning, given the news that he's moved up to Greensboro. Hiles was pretty adamant that he thinks Greensboro won't be the final promotion for Griffin this summer, which was interesting to hear. It makes sense why he would say that, because Greensboro is such an offensive environment and the pitching isn't that much different from low-A, so it stands to reason that the level will be more about checking the box for Griffin.
We'll see how it goes, but it will definitely be an interesting sign if we get him a decent number of ABs in AA to challenge him this summer. On the one hand, you have to see how that goes for him in the event it does happen, but on the other hand, I started thinking about his fastest path to the majors.
The first person who sprung to mind was Witt, probably for obvious reasons, but it's hard to use him both in general as a generational talent and also in particular given that the covid year impacted him. He entered the minors after his draft and then had the covid year, followed by a year of AA/AAA before breaking onto the opening day roster, so that amounts to 1.5ish years in the minors with the actual year of no minor league baseball during covid sprinkled in.
If Griffin were to follow a similar path, that could mean an MLB debut in 2026 is not totally out of the question, but it depends on a few factors. If he spends about a month in Greensboro, that could set him up for approximately two months of games in Altoona.
I doubt that there's any path to an opening day 2026 type situation for several obvious reasons, including that you don't want to rush him. A big indicator will really be what happens when he gets to AA pitchers. Given that Greensboro has a better offensive environment, the expectation should basically be that he hits the ground running there. It will be AA where we'll really see if there's some friction along his path as he faces pitchers who can better exploit a young hitter.
Hiles also touched on this, but a looming question for the time-to-majors speculation is which position he'll play. OF will expedite things more but I've heard good things about SS, which is obviously more valuable, not to mention if we are talking about the latter half of 2026 MLB Pirates, Cruz seems to finally be settling into CF. Hiles said he thinks Griffin will play more CF in Greensboro than SS, but also that the Pirates want him to keep playing both.
tldr; on all of this is that IMO, he's being set up to position himself for a 2026 MLB debut if he proceeds without any major speed bumps. If they wanted to slow play it, there's not necessarily a reason to have him able to get to AA this year. If I am guessing right and he does get two months of AA games, then that lines him up to have some boxes to check before a late-June/July (i.e. post-super two) MLB call-up if everything does click, and if not, he's still more or less on a path that would be AA/AAA all of next year, spring training/opening day in 2027. Perhaps a "middle ground" is small cup of September coffee next year if he doesn't keep torching the minors but still basically progresses. I don't see much else given the relatively early push the Greensboro and the chatter about Altoona so early in the season.
Obviously for now we need to pump the brakes on that for a guy in A ball (and to be clear, I am the one saying MVP type -they just say that the sky is the limit if he hits his 5% top outcome, which = the same thing), but it seems pretty unanimous that Griffin's pro debut has been as good as it could have possible been.
That's a real boon when you consider the other first round talent that's really popped so far which we could have had with a better draft position: Chase Burns, Nick Kurtz, and Jac Caglianone most come to mind, especially the latter if he starts hitting tanks for a playoff-contending Royals team over the next three months.
I also brought it up because Noah Hiles talked about him during his system update this morning, given the news that he's moved up to Greensboro. Hiles was pretty adamant that he thinks Greensboro won't be the final promotion for Griffin this summer, which was interesting to hear. It makes sense why he would say that, because Greensboro is such an offensive environment and the pitching isn't that much different from low-A, so it stands to reason that the level will be more about checking the box for Griffin.
We'll see how it goes, but it will definitely be an interesting sign if we get him a decent number of ABs in AA to challenge him this summer. On the one hand, you have to see how that goes for him in the event it does happen, but on the other hand, I started thinking about his fastest path to the majors.
The first person who sprung to mind was Witt, probably for obvious reasons, but it's hard to use him both in general as a generational talent and also in particular given that the covid year impacted him. He entered the minors after his draft and then had the covid year, followed by a year of AA/AAA before breaking onto the opening day roster, so that amounts to 1.5ish years in the minors with the actual year of no minor league baseball during covid sprinkled in.
If Griffin were to follow a similar path, that could mean an MLB debut in 2026 is not totally out of the question, but it depends on a few factors. If he spends about a month in Greensboro, that could set him up for approximately two months of games in Altoona.
I doubt that there's any path to an opening day 2026 type situation for several obvious reasons, including that you don't want to rush him. A big indicator will really be what happens when he gets to AA pitchers. Given that Greensboro has a better offensive environment, the expectation should basically be that he hits the ground running there. It will be AA where we'll really see if there's some friction along his path as he faces pitchers who can better exploit a young hitter.
Hiles also touched on this, but a looming question for the time-to-majors speculation is which position he'll play. OF will expedite things more but I've heard good things about SS, which is obviously more valuable, not to mention if we are talking about the latter half of 2026 MLB Pirates, Cruz seems to finally be settling into CF. Hiles said he thinks Griffin will play more CF in Greensboro than SS, but also that the Pirates want him to keep playing both.
tldr; on all of this is that IMO, he's being set up to position himself for a 2026 MLB debut if he proceeds without any major speed bumps. If they wanted to slow play it, there's not necessarily a reason to have him able to get to AA this year. If I am guessing right and he does get two months of AA games, then that lines him up to have some boxes to check before a late-June/July (i.e. post-super two) MLB call-up if everything does click, and if not, he's still more or less on a path that would be AA/AAA all of next year, spring training/opening day in 2027. Perhaps a "middle ground" is small cup of September coffee next year if he doesn't keep torching the minors but still basically progresses. I don't see much else given the relatively early push the Greensboro and the chatter about Altoona so early in the season.
I think he won't spend a lot of time in A+ just because that kind of environment like some of the west coast, higher altitude places in AAA can lead to bad habits. I just hope they don't rush him even if he has some early success just so he can potentially save someone's job versus learning to deal with pitchers who can sequence more than 2 fringe average or above pitches and not sit fastball.
MrBrightside
Registered User
They've played better with Kelly, no question, but the fact they have a 2.61 ERA since he took over is the reason they're winning far more than what he's doing. That said, I'm fine rolling with him and seeing how things go.
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DJ Spinoza
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Yeah, I still think it's not that big of a deal. The main reason they are bad is because the roster is bad.
The players seem to have been checked out on Shelton, so for that reason and a few others, it was the right move, but it's still not a huge needle-mover. It would be incredible if the team were at a .500 level right now (if we say for the sake of argument that that's what would have happened if he were the manager from game 1), but a .500 team in 2025 would still be either a disappointment or not a disappointment because the expectations have successfully been so lowered by no meaningful additions being made over the winter (the target acquisition is a no-power old first baseman...).
That's still ultimately the big question. I guess we could say that Frazier was a decent supplementary addition for the bench, and obviously Heaney has been fine for the rotation, but the offense is just woefully inadequate. The pitching is good enough that these kinds of small runs of decency are going to happen at some point during the season, but at the end of the day, the roster that Ben Cherington constructed is still one that is going to have a fighting shot at a top-5 pick in the draft if the lottery goes the right way.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Now that I'm back on an actual full size keyboard, I wanted to expand on the Shelton/Kelly transition.
Full stop, I do think Cherington deserves to be fired. I'm not nearly as forceful about it as some, in large part because working for Nutting puts you in a monumental bind, financially, not just in terms of FA's, but hiring coaches. Building infrastructure, expanding analytics. Those departments suffer, without a doubt under Nutting. It took Huntington, 8 or 9 years, IIRC, before the Pirates had a winning record under his direction. And let's not forget BC tore the entire org (player wise certainly) so he started from scratch, essentially. Covid didn't help matters either.
This doesn't absolve BC from not producing positive steps, in the most important department. Wins and losses. I do think there are too many of his draft picks that either are just starting their MLB careers or not yet graduated, to make a final assessment. This team, in 2-3 years, could still absolutely be a contender, whether BC is around or not. And many of the players pushing us into contention, BC will have either drafted, signed, or traded for.
To be clear, he hired Shelton. He kept Shelton FAR too long. That's (unless someone higher up at the exec level is pulling more strings than we know) on BC.
Shelton is, historically, one of the worst managers of all time. It astonishes me that some sleep on the kind of ineptitude he showed, routinely, as a manager. Sure, the rosters were often filled with a lot of cheap temu versions of real ballplayers, but as the talent did start to tick up, the record didn't.
The team looked lifeless to begin the year. Typical Shelton baseball with baserunning blunders galore, errors all over the place, the same relievers being put in the same situations despite the results being absolute shit. And often, there didn't seem to be any repercussions for poor play. HIs constant shuffling of the lineup card was puzzling to say the least. And lastly, I've long felt he just exudes a certain aloofness that didn't translate to the media/fans and based on the continued lackadaisical play, the players.
I'm not saying Don Kelly is a future HOF'er or will somehow turn the squad into a real threat but he's certainly shown more of a spine and stood up for players when the umps were making horrendous calls. It's far too early to make any sort of judgement about him as a bench boss, but I'm already more impressed with how the team has responded to the change and his personality vs DS.
Again, based on pure results, Cherington deserves the axe, but we've yet to see many of his premium drafted talent rise to the majors yet. That includes Chandler, Griffin, Johnson, leading the pack.
Speaking of Griffin, he continued to rake in his first action at Greensboro. The EV's are indicative of a budding superstar. There is a very real 5, tool, MVP caliber player if everything clicks. Just watching a few of his games and other highlights, KG passes the eye test. Then you see the 6'4'' 220 lbs, 19 year old, running and defending at elite rates.
Hunter Barco has a chance to be a contributor in the rotation. NIck Yorke will get more reps at some point this year. We need more time to see what Gonzo, Davis, among a few others are. Jared Jones should be back next summer.
How about some 2024 draft picks that are off to electric starts?
Wyatt Sanford - SS - 19 years old - Bradenton (A) - 2nd round
-Over his first 26 games between rookie ball and full season, Sanford is roaring.
Will Taylor - OF - 22 years old - Greensboro (A+) - 5th round
-Just promoted, with Griffin, to NC. If he continues to hit and run like this, for much of the rest of the year, it'll be hard not to see him jump into a top 10 to 15 position on our prospect list.
Other Cherington draftees/signees/trades to keep an eye on as the year progresses:
Axiel Plaz - C - 19/Bradenton (A)
Esmeryln Valdez - OF - 21/Greensboro (A+)
Edward Florentino - OF/1B - 18/Rookie Ball
Omar Alfonzo - C - 21/Greensboro (A+)
Keiner Delgado - SS/2B - 21/Greensboro (A+)
Wilber Dotel - SP - 22/Altoona (AA)
It wouldn't surprise me to see Cherington ride the momentum of the hot starts for Griffin/Sanford, the rise of Bubba Chandler, and role the dice on another HS SS (Eli Willits/Billy Carlson), or SP (Seth Hernandez) at 6 overall. Sounds like they've been heavily connected with Oregon State's SS, Aiva Arquette.
It'll be interesting to see how the team plays over the rest of the season. Unless the team plays a better than .500 record the rest of the year, I do think you need to move on from BC.
Full stop, I do think Cherington deserves to be fired. I'm not nearly as forceful about it as some, in large part because working for Nutting puts you in a monumental bind, financially, not just in terms of FA's, but hiring coaches. Building infrastructure, expanding analytics. Those departments suffer, without a doubt under Nutting. It took Huntington, 8 or 9 years, IIRC, before the Pirates had a winning record under his direction. And let's not forget BC tore the entire org (player wise certainly) so he started from scratch, essentially. Covid didn't help matters either.
This doesn't absolve BC from not producing positive steps, in the most important department. Wins and losses. I do think there are too many of his draft picks that either are just starting their MLB careers or not yet graduated, to make a final assessment. This team, in 2-3 years, could still absolutely be a contender, whether BC is around or not. And many of the players pushing us into contention, BC will have either drafted, signed, or traded for.
To be clear, he hired Shelton. He kept Shelton FAR too long. That's (unless someone higher up at the exec level is pulling more strings than we know) on BC.
Shelton is, historically, one of the worst managers of all time. It astonishes me that some sleep on the kind of ineptitude he showed, routinely, as a manager. Sure, the rosters were often filled with a lot of cheap temu versions of real ballplayers, but as the talent did start to tick up, the record didn't.
The team looked lifeless to begin the year. Typical Shelton baseball with baserunning blunders galore, errors all over the place, the same relievers being put in the same situations despite the results being absolute shit. And often, there didn't seem to be any repercussions for poor play. HIs constant shuffling of the lineup card was puzzling to say the least. And lastly, I've long felt he just exudes a certain aloofness that didn't translate to the media/fans and based on the continued lackadaisical play, the players.
I'm not saying Don Kelly is a future HOF'er or will somehow turn the squad into a real threat but he's certainly shown more of a spine and stood up for players when the umps were making horrendous calls. It's far too early to make any sort of judgement about him as a bench boss, but I'm already more impressed with how the team has responded to the change and his personality vs DS.
Again, based on pure results, Cherington deserves the axe, but we've yet to see many of his premium drafted talent rise to the majors yet. That includes Chandler, Griffin, Johnson, leading the pack.
Speaking of Griffin, he continued to rake in his first action at Greensboro. The EV's are indicative of a budding superstar. There is a very real 5, tool, MVP caliber player if everything clicks. Just watching a few of his games and other highlights, KG passes the eye test. Then you see the 6'4'' 220 lbs, 19 year old, running and defending at elite rates.
Hunter Barco has a chance to be a contributor in the rotation. NIck Yorke will get more reps at some point this year. We need more time to see what Gonzo, Davis, among a few others are. Jared Jones should be back next summer.
How about some 2024 draft picks that are off to electric starts?
Wyatt Sanford - SS - 19 years old - Bradenton (A) - 2nd round
-Over his first 26 games between rookie ball and full season, Sanford is roaring.
Will Taylor - OF - 22 years old - Greensboro (A+) - 5th round
-Just promoted, with Griffin, to NC. If he continues to hit and run like this, for much of the rest of the year, it'll be hard not to see him jump into a top 10 to 15 position on our prospect list.
Other Cherington draftees/signees/trades to keep an eye on as the year progresses:
Axiel Plaz - C - 19/Bradenton (A)
Esmeryln Valdez - OF - 21/Greensboro (A+)
Edward Florentino - OF/1B - 18/Rookie Ball
Omar Alfonzo - C - 21/Greensboro (A+)
Keiner Delgado - SS/2B - 21/Greensboro (A+)
Wilber Dotel - SP - 22/Altoona (AA)
It wouldn't surprise me to see Cherington ride the momentum of the hot starts for Griffin/Sanford, the rise of Bubba Chandler, and role the dice on another HS SS (Eli Willits/Billy Carlson), or SP (Seth Hernandez) at 6 overall. Sounds like they've been heavily connected with Oregon State's SS, Aiva Arquette.
It'll be interesting to see how the team plays over the rest of the season. Unless the team plays a better than .500 record the rest of the year, I do think you need to move on from BC.
the one place Cherrington has done well in is the draft. All other areas has been below average to abject disaster
Speaking of analytics, the Pirates are looking for a director of baseball systems: https://pirates.rec.pro.ukg.net/PIT...tunityId=1f6bef68-89b5-4131-8456-d84708cecffd
WickedWrister
Registered User
I think this stat sums it up best
Them continuing to play well most likely allows Cherington to keep his job next year.
ChaosAgent
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- May 8, 2018
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I mean Keller's starts are consistently at the very fringe of "quality" 5 IP 2 runs 6 IP 3 runs. Eh
I think I saw an article that mentioned in 2021, 54.5% of quality starts resulted in wins for the team. Assuming that hasn't changed significantly, a winning percentage of .250 v .545 is pretty far below expected.
BusinessGoose
Registered User
Unless you have an ERA of 9+, you aren't affecting your team winning as a pitcher. It's as dumb as goalie win stats. If you're .932 save percentage but your record is 12-45, is that your fault?
These guys need to put up less than 2 runs to have a chance at an official W
Anyway, raise it
These guys need to put up less than 2 runs to have a chance at an official W
Anyway, raise it
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Bednar rebounding under Kelly is a huge feather in his cap and gives BC a legitimate trade chip if he keeps up this dominant form.
ChaosAgent
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TooManyHumans
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TooManyHumans
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Cutch with his 3 run HR is now all alone in 3rd with 241 homeruns as a Pirate, one ahead of Clemente.
Btw, Bobby Bonilla still has over a decade of getting $1,190,000 every July 1st from the Mets. Lol.
Btw, Bobby Bonilla still has over a decade of getting $1,190,000 every July 1st from the Mets. Lol.
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