Confirmed with Link: Pionk extension 6 years 7 AAV

[Mortimer Snerd]

they literally just added a 7.7 billion USD tv contract, the cap will raise then next few seasons and expansion is very very likely as well adding even more money to the league

also the memo that was sent out with the projections said two future seasons (2026-27 and 2027-28) are subject to "potential minor increases (up or down)." so even if it doesn't reach that 104 number is doesn't seem likely it will be much below it

I don't think you are realistically allowing for the possible effects of this economy. A very small amount of inflation after the pandemic has lead to a cost of living crisis for some people. The inflation coming from a world wide trade war will be far worse. Look at how Jets attendance dropped with that 2 years of historically pretty mild inflation. We don't know how much that attendance issue was caused by the economy but the Jets were not back to fully selling out CLC even with this tremendous season, so it must have played a significant part. Even if this trade war comes to a quick end, we are in for a rough ride for the next while. The NHL's projections could be right out of the window.

 

[Romang67]

My general take on all signings right now is that yes, if these players drop off (which I'm very worried Pionk might do early because of his playstyle and size), we're boned. But screw it, our window closes when Hellebuyck and Scheifele fall off anyway, so might as well keep players here for a few more years.

 

[surixon]

they literally just added a 7.7 billion USD tv contract, the cap will raise then next few seasons and expansion is very very likely as well adding even more money to the league

also the memo that was sent out with the projections said two future seasons (2026-27 and 2027-28) are subject to "potential minor increases (up or down)." so even if it doesn't reach that 104 number is doesn't seem likely it will be much below it

Sure but that deal is paid in Canadian dollars not American. So if the economy tanks and the Canadian dollar tanks with it then that deal is worth significantly less then what they project it to be. As would be all the Canadian regional TV deals and gate revenue. Bettman himself has said the current economic situation could have very real negative impacts on league revenue.

I'm sure the cap will rise but I wouldn't be banking on it rising as much as projected.

 

[Daximus]

Depends on what it will take to sign Ehlers and Samberg. But yes, the rising cap may make this quite affordable. With the economic uncertainty we have right now, I'm not putting much faith in the cap projections beyond next year.

That's fair. I think the only thing that will stop us from signing Ehlers will be the team and Ehlers plans which are likely largely hinging on this playoffs. If Ehlers comes back and preforms I could see mutual interest to sign a long term extension. If he comes back and has issues producing again then I could see mutual interest to part ways.

As for Samberg I know a lot of people want to lock him up on a longterm deal but I think his camp is going to want to bet on a bridge deal to increase his value long term.

 

[Daximus]

My general take on all signings right now is that yes, if these players drop off (which I'm very worried Pionk might do early because of his playstyle and size), we're boned. But screw it, our window closes when Hellebuyck and Scheifele fall off anyway, so might as well keep players here for a few more years.

Yeah at this point we are only going to be good as long as our 1C and 1G are viably top players in the league. The falloff is likely to happen but then we just ride it out and let them retire as Jets or get traded to a contender later on.

 

[surixon]

That's fair. I think the only thing that will stop us from signing Ehlers will be the team and Ehlers plans which are likely largely hinging on this playoffs. If Ehlers comes back and preforms I could see mutual interest to sign a long term extension. If he comes back and has issues producing again then I could see mutual interest to part ways.

As for Samberg I know a lot of people want to lock him up on a longterm deal but I think his camp is going to want to bet on a bridge deal to increase his value long term.

He's one year from UFA, I don't see a bridge at all in the cards.

 

[gojetsgo]

Sure but that deal is paid in Canadian dollars not American. So if the economy tanks and the Canadian dollar tanks with it then that deal is worth significantly less then what they project it to be. As would be all the Canadian regional TV deals and gate revenue. Bettman himself has said the current economic situation could have very real negative impacts on league revenue.

I'm sure the cap will rise but I wouldn't be banking on it rising as much as projected.

it's still a major increase in the revenue they are getting which means the cap will go up the next few seasons, if the economy continues to tank then you will probably see a flat cap in the following years but the next few years there should be an increase

 

[Flair Hay]

Have samberg-demelo played at 5v5?

Only 90 mins

 

[Flair Hay]

Pionk's biggest issue is he's very ordinary in terms of being able to break the puck out of his end with control. He gets into defensive trouble when he is to carry the transition load on his pairing. When he has a partner that can move the puck efficiently out of the done like JoMo and Snerg he succeeds.

I'd peg him as average off the puck in his end and real good offensively in the ozone but his transition game is what really holds him back.

Pionk's strengths are definitely geared towards the team putting the puck in the net when he is on the ice, 5v5 or PP. He just doesn't drive play or suppress offense much. Samberg has become an elite suppressor obviously.

Two good but not great puck movers that struggle as primary puck mover but together do the job well.

 

[gojetsgo]

I don't think you are realistically allowing for the possible effects of this economy. A very small amount of inflation after the pandemic has lead to a cost of living crisis for some people. The inflation coming from a world wide trade war will be far worse. Look at how Jets attendance dropped with that 2 years of historically pretty mild inflation. We don't know how much that attendance issue was caused by the economy but the Jets were not back to fully selling out CLC even with this tremendous season, so it must have played a significant part. Even if this trade war comes to a quick end, we are in for a rough ride for the next while. The NHL's projections could be right out of the window.

+new tv deal
+potential expansion

honestly haven't seen a single person outside this forum question that the cap was actually going to go up

 

[Gm0ney]

so what your saying is if pionk plays with legit top 4 defensemen that can skate well he puts up good results but when you pair him with #7 defensemen or top 4 defensemen on the slower side he puts up bad results...

That's a lot of qualifiers for what kind of defenseman he needs to be partnered with. I think he really needs a top pairing guy who's capable of carrying him...because when Neal gets a bit overloaded in his zone, chaos ensues.

 

[gojetsgo]

That's a lot of qualifiers for what kind of defenseman he needs to be partnered with. I think he really needs a top pairing guy who's capable of carrying him...because when Neal gets a bit overloaded in his zone, chaos ensues.

a top 4 defensemen that can skate is a lot of qualifiers?

I really think you are ignoring how much of a drop off it goes from playing with samberg/jmo to the rest of the field and putting it all on pionk for not being able to carry those players to good results in the top 4

it would kinda be like judging jmo for not being able to carry the poolman then saying he needs be carried by demelo

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's fair. I think the only thing that will stop us from signing Ehlers will be the team and Ehlers plans which are likely largely hinging on this playoffs. If Ehlers comes back and preforms I could see mutual interest to sign a long term extension. If he comes back and has issues producing again then I could see mutual interest to part ways.

As for Samberg I know a lot of people want to lock him up on a longterm deal but I think his camp is going to want to bet on a bridge deal to increase his value long term.

Ehlers is impossible to figure out at this point. The latest injury just adds to the difficulty. That said, I have suspected an own rental situation since the off-season passed with neither a trade nor a contract. Even if that was/is the situation it could always change with any movement by either side.

IMO, Jets need to pay up to sign Samberg. His camp won't want a bridge deal if the Jets make the right offer. A bridge deal would be something like 2-3 years 4-5 mil. That would mean leaving money on the table for those 2-3 years that would need to be made up in the following contract. That's not easy to do. I doubt they sign 8x6 but I expect they would sign 8x8. Just my guesses.

 

[Gm0ney]

He's one year from UFA, I don't see a bridge at all in the cards.

Yeah there's no bridge option with Samberg - he could opt for arbitration and be a UFA in July 2026.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

+new tv deal
+potential expansion

honestly haven't seen a single person outside this forum question that the cap was actually going to go up

I can only saw wow, have you not been paying any attention to the news? The entire world's economy is going through an entirely unprecedented upheaval right now. Virtually all economists are predicting recession. None of them is willing to guess at the extent of that recession.

I'm not saying the cap is not going to rise after this year, but it is a complete unknown. It could go up as forecast. It could go down. I don't think anyone is capable of forecasting what we will be seeing a year from now. Business leaders are hunkering down and putting plans for investment on hold. Existing contracts are being cancelled. They are all just waiting to see what will come next.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lock up Barron for a reasonable contract and what a great deal for Jakub Touba

Barron came in the Copp trade. Pionk came with the pick that turned into Heinola. But considering what has happened to Trouba we still did alright.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Define “biting us in the butt”.

If you mean Pionk’s play declining in the back half of that contract and it being unmovable, yeah I’d say that’s pretty likely.

We’re in win now mode. As long as he has Security Blanket Sammy as his partner, I’m not too worried in the short term.

That is a reassuring factor. But last year Pionk had Dillon who should have been a pretty good partner.

 

[Gm0ney]

a top 4 defensemen that can skate is a lot of qualifiers?

I really think you are ignoring how much of a drop off it goes from playing with samberg/jmo to the rest of the field and putting it all on pionk for not being able to carry those players to good results in the top 4

it would kinda be like judging jmo for not being able to carry the poolman then saying he needs be carried by demelo

Dillon was too slow? Check the Edge data. He's approximately as fast as Samberg.

If the qualifier is "he needs to play with one of the two best defensemen on the team" then yes, it's a lot of qualifiers.

Using the same criteria of 60+ minutes TOI over the last 3 seasons, Morrissey has played with 7 partners: DeMelo, Pionk, Schmidt, Dillon, Samberg, Stanley, and Miller. Positive CF% with all 7, positive GF% with 6, positive xGF% with all 7. Morrissey has been good with anyone. Pionk's only been good with Morrisey (who makes all his partners look good) and Samberg (who makes *almost* all of his partners look good).

So no, it's not quite like judging Morrissey for not being able to carry one guy 5 years ago.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is what I thought he'd get, I just didnt think it would be here. So what does mean now? I suspect Ehlers is going to market, but is Vilardi gone too?

Vilardi is a separate question. He is an RFA so very different circumstances. 1 more year, presumably with arb rights.

 

[gojetsgo]

I can only saw wow, have you not been paying any attention to the news? The entire world's economy is going through an entirely unprecedented upheaval right now. Virtually all economists are predicting recession. None of them is willing to guess at the extent of that recession.

I'm not saying the cap is not going to rise after this year, but it is a complete unknown. It could go up as forecast. It could go down. I don't think anyone is capable of forecasting what we will be seeing a year from now. Business leaders are hunkering down and putting plans for investment on hold. Existing contracts are being cancelled. They are all just waiting to see what will come next.

and yet rogers just agreed to a 7.7 billion USD tv contract just two weeks ago, I don't think the recession will effect the cap for the next couple of years with the recent attendance records new tv deals and potential expansion teams, in a few years if the attendance drops I can see the cap not going up much or another flat cap but I think the next 2 years will be close to whats being projected

 

[Buffdog]

Samberg's had 9 defensive partners with at least 60 minutes at 5v5 over the past 3 seasons (from most to least TOI): Pionk, Schmidt, DeMelo, Stanley, Schenn, Morrissey, Miller, Dillon and Capobianco. He has positive CF% with 7 of them, positive GF% with 6, and positive xGF% with 6.

Pionk's had 7 with 60+ TOI: Dillon, Samberg, Morrissey, Fleury, Stanley, Schmidt, and DeMelo. He has positive CF%, GF% and xGF% with 2 of them (Samberg and Morrissey).

Deployment probably has something to do with it. But Pionk needs to be carried and Samberg and Morrissey are the only ones who seem capable of it. Pionk struggles on the 2nd pair without a competent partner.

As long as Samberg sticks around and plays with Pionk, it's not a problem.

You can't make any conclusions from sample sizes as small as 60 minutes (especially if you're going to talk about actual goal differential)

If I tried that to point Stanley in a more positive light using a 60 minite sample size, you'd (rightfully) skewer me

I'm not saying you're wrong about Samberg, but let's be consistent with that we use as proof to make our points

 

[scelaton]

Yeah there's no bridge option with Samberg - he could opt for arbitration and be a UFA in July 2026.

Yeah, I see him signing long-term here. He has been developed flawlessly, is a charter member of the Jets' Minnesota Mafia and now has a partner who has just signed long-term. Also keep in mind his wife is a dentist, so it is in her professional interest to develop a stable practice in one place.
I don't see huge risks with Samberg--he will be here for many years and for less AAV than some might think.

 

[Gm0ney]

and yet rogers just agreed to a 7.7 billion USD tv contract just two weeks ago, I don't think the recession will effect the cap for the next couple of years with the recent attendance records new tv deals and potential expansion teams, in a few years if the attendance drops I can see the cap not going up much or another flat cap but I think the next 2 years will be close to whats being projected

I think the deal is $11B CAD.

Also, no one knows wtf Rogers is doing. They lost money on the last deal and now they're paying double? They are also abjectly terrible at broadcasting hockey, and I would vote for any political party whose policy promised that they would send the entire Rogers C-suite to a Salvadoran gulag forever.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not convinced the market offers Ehlers that. He's very good no doubt but a LW isn't exactly a key position and while Ehlers is my favorite forward on the team, he's not without his own flaws. He can be difficult for some players and in some systems. Always has been. I think the Jets at times have underutilized him, but I also understand why.

As to the injury aspect, you're overstating it:
2015-16 - missed 10 games
2016-17 - played all 82
2017-18 - played all 82
2018-19 - missed 20 games
2019-20 - missed 11 games
2020-21 - missed 9 games (47/56 games)
2021-22 -missed 20 games
2022-23 - missed 35 games
2023-24 - played all 82 games
2024-25 - missed 13 games

I believe the big gap in there (2021-22 and 2022-23) were related to a sports hernia injury and subsequent surgery that some doubted he'd come back from. So he missed, on average in most seasons about 10 games. Lots of players have had seasons missing 10 games a year.

Is he likely to miss games because of his aggressive style? Yup, but you factor that in.

I think the Jets are willing to pay Ehlers around $8 million, as long as he's below Scheifele and Hellebuyck. Will Ehlers take it? Remains to be seen.

As for Pionk I'll own up to not wanting him re-signed. Lots of cogent arguments to counter that though - lack of RHD overall, difficult to replace from UFA, no prospects quite ready to step up at this time.

Term is longer than I'd like, but you have to give somewhere. Do I think this is a worse deal than the Chychrun deal? Nope. Why don't I like it? I think Samberg is the perfect partner for him and allowed him, in a contract year, to thrive. If he plays with Samberg in the years moving forward I think this will be ok as a contract.

I do like the way they structured the contract. I believe the last year is $4 million. It might be an overpay in his age 37 year but I expect he'll be playing third line or bought out. Overpay then? Yes, but likely the same can be said for Scheifele in the last year of his deal.

TNSE/Chevy see a clear window and they're willing to pay for it. Good for them and us. Chevy is a master manager of having contracts expire at just the right time.

On to Vilardi, Samberg and Ehlers. GJG.

You overstate it to.
Ehlers missed no games in 2020 season. Covid shortened to 71 game season.
Also this contract will expire just before Pionk's 36th b'day, takes him through his 35 YO season.

I don't mind this contract if he can give us a few more years like this one. But that remains to be seen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We do tend to overvalue some of our players here (as they do in Toronto). People saying 6m for Samberg on the strength of his career high 20pts is even crazier than 9 for Ehlers.

No one is saying any number for Samberg on the strength of his 20 pt season. It is on the strength of his defensive play.