Confirmed with Link: Pionk extension 6 years 7 AAV

[Channelcat]

Omg how u gonna pay these guys... bafoons we paying less for our 4 best players than toronto is for 2.. and ehlers never over 60 pts getting 9 million hahahahahahaha

We do tend to overvalue some of our players here (as they do in Toronto). People saying 6m for Samberg on the strength of his career high 20pts is even crazier than 9 for Ehlers.

 

[Jets 31]

We do tend to overvalue some of our players here (as they do in Toronto). People saying 6m for Samberg on the strength of his career high 20pts is even crazier than 9 for Ehlers.

I don't think you are paying Samberg on points you are paying on the fact he's a very good all around defenseman. Great in his own end , moves the puck well out of his end, blocks shots and has good strength to move guys out of the crease. 6 million a year for 7 years would be a very good deal.

 

[Channelcat]

I don't think you are paying Samberg on points you are paying on the fact he's a very good all around defenseman. Great in his own end , moves the puck well out of his end, blocks shots and has good strength to move guys out of the crease. 6 million a year for 7 years would be a very good deal.

That would be a massive overpay imho. I like Samberg! But he's an average NHL defenseman. And I consider that a compliment not a criticism. He's 26, not 22. What we see is probably what we get with Dylan Samberg. I wouldn't go beyond 4m.

 

[ps241]

I'm not convinced the market offers Ehlers that. He's very good no doubt but a LW isn't exactly a key position and while Ehlers is my favorite forward on the team, he's not without his own flaws. He can be difficult for some players and in some systems. Always has been. I think the Jets at times have underutilized him, but I also understand why.

As to the injury aspect, you're overstating it:
2015-16 - missed 10 games
2016-17 - played all 82
2017-18 - played all 82
2018-19 - missed 20 games
2019-20 - missed 11 games
2020-21 - missed 9 games (47/56 games)
2021-22 -missed 20 games
2022-23 - missed 35 games
2023-24 - played all 82 games
2024-25 - missed 13 games

I believe the big gap in there (2021-22 and 2022-23) were related to a sports hernia injury and subsequent surgery that some doubted he'd come back from. So he missed, on average in most seasons about 10 games. Lots of players have had seasons missing 10 games a year.

Is he likely to miss games because of his aggressive style? Yup, but you factor that in.

I think the Jets are willing to pay Ehlers around $8 million, as long as he's below Scheifele and Hellebuyck. Will Ehlers take it? Remains to be seen.

As for Pionk I'll own up to not wanting him re-signed. Lots of cogent arguments to counter that though - lack of RHD overall, difficult to replace from UFA, no prospects quite ready to step up at this time.

Term is longer than I'd like, but you have to give somewhere. Do I think this is a worse deal than the Chychrun deal? Nope. Why don't I like it? I think Samberg is the perfect partner for him and allowed him, in a contract year, to thrive. If he plays with Samberg in the years moving forward I think this will be ok as a contract.

I do like the way they structured the contract. I believe the last year is $4 million. It might be an overpay in his age 37 year but I expect he'll be playing third line or bought out. Overpay then? Yes, but likely the same can be said for Scheifele in the last year of his deal.

TNSE/Chevy see a clear window and they're willing to pay for it. Good for them and us. Chevy is a master manager of having contracts expire at just the right time.

On to Vilardi, Samberg and Ehlers. GJG.

Good post and I am with you on this. This will get around to Pionk trust me (Lol)

Right now the Jets have a window and it’s going to close. Remember how good Blake Wheeler was and how well he aged after he turned 30. Blake peaked when he was 32 and 33 years old but after that he stopped being dominant, he didn’t fall off a cliff right away but instead of getting 90 plus points he dropped slightly below a PPG player and quit becoming the driver. Everyone ages out at different rates. We were lucky because we had lots of guys coming behind Blake.

Jets built the foundation of a Presidents trophy team in the draft classes from 2011-2016 and that group, along with the assets they have yielded through trades, have peaked this season. Scheifele turned 32 in March and represents the oldest of the golden era. When he begins to fade, like they all do, that will begin the unwinding of our contender team IMO. Once Helle starts coming down the back side of the mountain joining Scheif then I don’t think we contend again for a long time. We are not replacing the quality of these assets through our prospect pool or certainly not at a fast enough rate.

How long this lasts is up for debate but my guess is 2 to 3 season window after this playoff run.

That is why you extend guys like Pionk or maybe Ehlers. The only question I ask is do I think they can drive similar value over the next 2 to 3 seasons and I don’t worry about the term past that too much. The last half of these guys deals will be played in our post contender era anyways. This is how contenders roll.

I am less of a fan of Pionk than posters I respect allot but I am pragmatic on this topic. Neil plays pretty well with Samberg and they form a very solid second pairing which is really important for a contending team.

The math in a rising cap era would say this is about what his market value is as a % of the salary cap.

 

[PhilJets]

If Jets didn’t sign Pionk

Anybody ese out there that is better or have better deal that he currently signed?

Also him and Samberg works very well together as 2nd unit. I think they are top in the league in defensive metric?

 

[AtomicJets]

Pionk was 10th in points among RHD this season and the 27th highest paid RHD. This deal will place him roughly 18th highest paid RHD next season (pending other contracts being signed/expiring around the league). Cumulatively, in four years since signing his last contract, Pionk is 21st in points among RHD.

Points-wise, the deal is favorable to the Jets. This would be a home run if it was four years long instead of six. At six years long, I call it a fair deal for both sides.

As for those posting that Pionk looked much better with Samberg than with Stanley or Fleury.... Thanks for the brilliant insight, detective. Lol.

 

[Whileee]

A reminder that Samberg is better with Pionk and Pionk is better with Samberg. It's a mutually beneficial D partnership this season. Together, they have been dynamite, last season and this season.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Seems a bit rich for Pionk, but what do I know. Can't argue with his story though - an undrafted college free agent makes it to the NHL and thrives.

Samberg is a better defenseman IMHO.

 

[WolfHouse]

Seems like a huge mistake if the Jets lowball Samberg after the Pionk deal... we saw how bad things can be with Stan-Pionk and Fleury-Pionk

I was a hater but I'm glad to see him turn it on this season and excited for the prospect of Edmonton series Pionk showing up for this playoffs...

I could give two f***s about what contracts we have moving forward if we win the cup

 

[Flair Hay]

If Jets didn’t sign Pionk

Anybody ese out there that is better or have better deal that he currently signed?

Also him and Samberg works very well together as 2nd unit. I think they are top in the league in defensive metric?

Pionk and Samberg together, out of 60 pairs league wide with 500 mins together:

xGF% - 6th
GF% - 5th
SF% - 10th


Samberg-DeMelo and Samberg-Schenn both have kinda ugly numbers.

These two together are better than the sum of their parts - it's not just Samberg. Two $5M calibre players are producing $15M worth of results together... Jets can't mess with that right now no matter the costs down the road. At least within reason which this is still.

 

[jokesondee]

The Copp trade could end up being one of the most lopsided deals ever.

Especially since the Rangers only got 30 something games out of him before he bolted to Detroit

 

[Turin]

Please sign Samberg right this second

 

[WolfHouse]

Especially since the Rangers only got 30 something games out of him before he bolted to Detroit

That was really weird - he had so much chemistry with panarin

 

[WolfHouse]

Pionk and Samberg together, out of 60 pairs league wide with 500 mins together:

xGF% - 6th
GF% - 5th
SF% - 10th


Samberg-DeMelo and Samberg-Schenn both have kinda ugly numbers.

These two together are better than the sum of their parts - it's not just Samberg. Two $5M calibre players are producing $15M worth of results together... Jets can't mess with that right now no matter the costs down the road. At least within reason which this is still.

Have samberg-demelo played at 5v5?

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

​

Great to hear Pionk re-upping

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

cap is projected to go up to 104 when connor is up, connors 7.1 + the 8.5 million increase is more then enough to keep him also schenns 2.75 is off the books as well and salo can replace him

I don't think anyone can predict the cap beyond 1 year in the future. The whole world economy is in turmoil right now.

Perfetti and Lowry contracts are up at the same time as Connor.

The rising cap *might* make Pionk's contract easy to swallow - IF it rises as quickly as predicted. I think that is a big if right now.

But I think Pionk's performance is the real ? with this contract. Has he played well this year? Yes, clearly. The issue is whether or not it will continue. The last time he played really well was in his previous contract year. In between contract years all we saw here was how his defense was too poor to be compensated for by his offence. He was not worth his previous contract at <6 mil. etc, etc.

If he continues to play like he has this year then this contract won't be a problem for several years at least. If he drops back to the level of play of the previous 3 years then it will be a problem.

I won't say I hate this contract. I don't. But I am dubious. On the plus side it removes any pressure to rush Salomonsson and it shows that the Jets are still willing to spend. I think Pionk could have done equally well, or better in UFA so it also shows that players are willing to sign here. We'll see how it works out.

 

[KingBogo]

Please sign Samberg right this second

While it is possibility signing Samberg or Vilardi right now is unlikely. Both are still RFAs and arbitration eligible. The majority of those contracts get signed in the run up to the arbitration hearings at the end of July and beginning of August. That is when players have the most leverage and I would guess Samberg’s agent is advising him on that.

 

[gojetsgo]

I don't think anyone can predict the cap beyond 1 year in the future. The whole world economy is in turmoil right now.

Perfetti and Lowry contracts are up at the same time as Connor.

The rising cap *might* make Pionk's contract easy to swallow - IF it rises as quickly as predicted. I think that is a big if right now.

But I think Pionk's performance is the real ? with this contract. Has he played well this year? Yes, clearly. The issue is whether or not it will continue. The last time he played really well was in his previous contract year. In between contract years all we saw here was how his defense was too poor to be compensated for by his offence. He was not worth his previous contract at <6 mil. etc, etc.

If he continues to play like he has this year then this contract won't be a problem for several years at least. If he drops back to the level of play of the previous 3 years then it will be a problem.

I won't say I hate this contract. I don't. But I am dubious. On the plus side it removes any pressure to rush Salomonsson and it shows that the Jets are still willing to spend. I think Pionk could have done equally well, or better in UFA so it also shows that players are willing to sign here. We'll see how it works out.

they literally just added a 7.7 billion USD tv contract, the cap will raise then next few seasons and expansion is very very likely as well adding even more money to the league

also the memo that was sent out with the projections said two future seasons (2026-27 and 2027-28) are subject to "potential minor increases (up or down)." so even if it doesn't reach that 104 number is doesn't seem likely it will be much below it

 

[Moloch]

I'm fine with this signing as long as we can keep Samberg long term. I don't want to see Pionk with anybody but him for the next 7 years..

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How would it get in the way of Samberg signing? They are D partners and close friends. If anything it suggests the Jets are very keen on keeping the team together.

Money, cap. How much will it take to lock up Samberg long term? People are estimating several signings and making it fit - just. Add just a little to some of those projections and it doesn't work.

I've suspected since last off-season that Ehlers was an own rental and would be gone after this season. I haven't seen anything to change that. I think paying that much to Pionk at this time strengthens that probability. With Ehlers gone, there is no cap pressure at all. Doesn't make it written in stone. Maybe Ehlers signs for a number that can fit. It does put a cap on his number.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Even with this deal we have something like $25m in space next year. If the team wants to bring back Ehlers and sign Sammy long term they definitely can. Especially if the cap keeps going up aggressively like the league is planning.

Depends on what it will take to sign Ehlers and Samberg. But yes, the rising cap may make this quite affordable. With the economic uncertainty we have right now, I'm not putting much faith in the cap projections beyond next year.

 

[Gm0ney]

maybe it has to do with the fact that pionk had to play with stanley/fleury while samberg got miller/schenn

Samberg's had 9 defensive partners with at least 60 minutes at 5v5 over the past 3 seasons (from most to least TOI): Pionk, Schmidt, DeMelo, Stanley, Schenn, Morrissey, Miller, Dillon and Capobianco. He has positive CF% with 7 of them, positive GF% with 6, and positive xGF% with 6.

Pionk's had 7 with 60+ TOI: Dillon, Samberg, Morrissey, Fleury, Stanley, Schmidt, and DeMelo. He has positive CF%, GF% and xGF% with 2 of them (Samberg and Morrissey).

Deployment probably has something to do with it. But Pionk needs to be carried and Samberg and Morrissey are the only ones who seem capable of it. Pionk struggles on the 2nd pair without a competent partner.

As long as Samberg sticks around and plays with Pionk, it's not a problem.

 

[raideralex99]

Seems like a huge mistake if the Jets lowball Samberg after the Pionk deal... we saw how bad things can be with Stan-Pionk and Fleury-Pionk

I was a hater but I'm glad to see him turn it on this season and excited for the prospect of Edmonton series Pionk showing up for this playoffs...

I could give two f***s about what contracts we have moving forward if we win the cup

No way Chevy low balls Samberg.
If you look at the contracts he hands out over the years majority of them are basically the same pay Helle, Scheifele, Ehlers, JoMo all within $.5-1M the only difference is term.
Imo Samberg gets $6-7 M … 8 years if he wants to stay.

 

[surixon]

Samberg's had 9 defensive partners with at least 60 minutes at 5v5 over the past 3 seasons (from most to least TOI): Pionk, Schmidt, DeMelo, Stanley, Schenn, Morrissey, Miller, Dillon and Capobianco. He has positive CF% with 7 of them, positive GF% with 6, and positive xGF% with 6.

Pionk's had 7 with 60+ TOI: Dillon, Samberg, Morrissey, Fleury, Stanley, Schmidt, and DeMelo. He has positive CF%, GF% and xGF% with 2 of them (Samberg and Morrissey).

Deployment probably has something to do with it. But Pionk needs to be carried and Samberg and Morrissey are the only ones who seem capable of it. Pionk struggles on the 2nd pair without a competent partner.

As long as Samberg sticks around and plays with Pionk, it's not a problem.

Pionk's biggest issue is he's very ordinary in terms of being able to break the puck out of his end with control. He gets into defensive trouble when he is to carry the transition load on his pairing. When he has a partner that can move the puck efficiently out of the done like JoMo and Snerg he succeeds.

I'd peg him as average off the puck in his end and real good offensively in the ozone but his transition game is what really holds him back.

 

[gojetsgo]

Samberg's had 9 defensive partners with at least 60 minutes at 5v5 over the past 3 seasons (from most to least TOI): Pionk, Schmidt, DeMelo, Stanley, Schenn, Morrissey, Miller, Dillon and Capobianco. He has positive CF% with 7 of them, positive GF% with 6, and positive xGF% with 6.

Pionk's had 7 with 60+ TOI: Dillon, Samberg, Morrissey, Fleury, Stanley, Schmidt, and DeMelo. He has positive CF%, GF% and xGF% with 2 of them (Samberg and Morrissey).

Deployment probably has something to do with it. But Pionk needs to be carried and Samberg and Morrissey are the only ones who seem capable of it. Pionk struggles on the 2nd pair without a competent partner.

As long as Samberg sticks around and plays with Pionk, it's not a problem.

so what your saying is if pionk plays with legit top 4 defensemen that can skate well he puts up good results but when you pair him with #7 defensemen or top 4 defensemen on the slower side he puts up bad results...