Other Sports: Philadelphia Phillies: The Road To .500 Continues Into Red October (2024 Edition)

[swami24]

That sample size is 5.5 and tosses out the AL at the same time.

All byes are good. You want them. Always.

Baseball is all about timing and routine. 5 days off makes a difference to these guys. Including the AL(one top seed loss so far), the top seeds are under 500. These are the top teams, so they should have a better than 500 records. 5 days off is disadvantage so far. The opponent may not be rested, but they have their routine and timing.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Baseball is all about timing and routine. 5 days off makes a difference to these guys. Including the AL(one top seed loss so far), the top seeds are under 500. These are the top teams, so they should have a better than 500 records. It is a disadvantage so far.

This is purely a probability thing. We’re overthinking it.

The Phillies were a slight favorite to win the series, but let’s say they were a coin flip to make it as overwhelmingly fair as possible. So they’re 50-50 to go through the Mets series. Play it out 100 times, they get to the NLCS 50 times.

Let’s say the Phillies would have been a 55% favorite to win a 3 Game WC series, which probably isn’t even true. That means 45% of their outcomes are chopped off immediately. We now have a max NLCS outcomes at 55/100. Now let’s apply a 55% chance to win the NLDS because you believe they should no longer be at a disadvantage. 55% of of those 55 outcomes where they won the WC round leaves us with 30.25 out of 100 playoff runs where they advance to the NLCS.

50 vs 30.25% is a cataclysmic difference. That even assumes this proposed disadvantage doesn’t dissipate after 1 or 2 Games. Every number here was overly kind. No matter what you do, you cannot get a disadvantage in the following series to outweigh having to play one less. Byes are the best thing you can possibly get in all situations.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

I think the more likely cause of top seeds going out is simply that they generally don't peak at the right time. By nature the wild card teams are the teams that are playing the best at the end of th season. It is what it is. It's kind of a lame flaw of baseball having such a long season

 

[JojoTheWhale]

A lot of these arguments can be boiled down to “Playoffs aren’t about finding out which team is best. They’re just a manufactured entertainment product.”

Yes. True. And while we’re on the subject, the more teams make the playoffs, the more random it is.

 

[Svechhammer]

Baseball is all about timing and routine. 5 days off makes a difference to these guys. Including the AL(one top seed loss so far), the top seeds are under 500. These are the top teams, so they should have a better than 500 records. 5 days off is disadvantage so far. The opponent may not be rested, but they have their routine and timing.

This is the same lineup that got no-hit by the Astros in the World Series 2 years ago and completely shit the bed when 1 win away from the NL Pennant last year. Timing played as much a part in those as it did this year.

The fact of the matter is, the Phillies have terrible plate discipline with a lineup that is so weak mentally that anyone going into a slump pulls everyone else down with him. They all panic, swinging at junk that would be a 4th ball and popping out on the first pitch they see. The collapse is expected at this point.

 

[GKJ]

i wonder if they continue the philly sports tradition of just throwing more money at the problem

They’re kind of all in on this until Harper and Turner really break down - which is already happening. So probably. They’ll be in the free agent market, because they don’t want to trade top prospects.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Baseball is all about timing and routine. 5 days off makes a difference to these guys. Including the AL(one top seed loss so far), the top seeds are under 500. These are the top teams, so they should have a better than 500 records. 5 days off is disadvantage so far. The opponent may not be rested, but they have their routine and timing.

Byes are useful if you're burning through a lot of pitchers and need a reset for your staff, but they're a little scary if your team is in a rhythm. I think in this series the bigger issue was intensity/preparedness/confidence gap between the two teams.

The Mets were bottom 5 in the league on June 1st. So for the last 4 months they've been playing for their lives. Since getting 2 days off when Helene forced their Braves series to be rescheduled, they've played 12 games in the last 12 days, with all but one of them being essentially playoff games. They had to save their season with 9th inning comebacks twice since last Monday.

Meanwhile, the Phillies really didn't play meaningful, scary baseball games all year. They had essentially clinched a playoff spot, if not the division, before July was over. They then spent a few months twirling around, piecing together enough really ugly stretches to get some people worried and then countering with enough decent stretches to make the worriers question why they were worrying. But when it came down to it, one team was locked all the way in and the other was trying to figure it out on the fly. When the Phillies got punched in the mouth, their body language was "oh f*** oh no damn."

 

[BiggE]

I think the more likely cause of top seeds going out is simply that they generally don't peak at the right time. By nature the wild card teams are the teams that are playing the best at the end of th season. It is what it is. It's kind of a lame flaw of baseball having such a long season

Agreed. The optimal spot to finish is either the 3rd division winner or top wildcard, especially if you can lock one of those spots up by game 159 allowing you to set up your best playoff pitching rotation.

Opening the playoffs with 3 straight at CBP featuring Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola would be as close to perfect as it gets for the Phillies

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Does no one remember last year’s Diamondbacks entire season before the NLCS?

I am begging basically everyone in this thread to never bet on sports. These are the same pretzels people twisted themselves into over that flat 1st for future 1st Flyers trade. We’ve just decided we’re writing a narrative and that’s the end of the discussion.

 

[Chinatown88]

Does no one remember last year’s Diamondbacks entire season before the NLCS?

I am begging basically everyone in this thread to never bet on sports. These are the same pretzels people twisted themselves into over that flat 1st for future 1st Flyers trade. We’ve just decided we’re writing a narrative and that’s the end of the discussion.

Tell us how you really feel.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Tell us how you really feel.

I feel as if every exec at BetMGM will have a diamond toilet by 2030.

 

[Rebels57]

I'm taking this much better then I thought.

That's because the writing has been on the wall since July and they literally gave of us no reason to believe in them once this series started. They played about 2 innings of exciting baseball in 4 games.

The Mets stole the Phillies mojo in London

Lest we not forget that the Phillies have a 4-0 lead in Game 2 and then Thomson decided to make one bad bullpen decision after another to give the game to the Mets, which started their roll.

Thomson is the beginning and end of all the bad things that happened to this team.

 

[Halladay]

The Phillies outfield is a total disaster and was all year. They can potentially help this by moving Trea there. Would be an upgrade in the infield as well. They can't run it back with the exact same outfield setup though. Should be an interesting offseason.

 

[DancingPanther]

This is purely a probability thing. We’re overthinking it.

The Phillies were a slight favorite to win the series, but let’s say they were a coin flip to make it as overwhelmingly fair as possible. So they’re 50-50 to go through the Mets series. Play it out 100 times, they get to the NLCS 50 times.

Let’s say the Phillies would have been a 55% favorite to win a 3 Game WC series, which probably isn’t even true. That means 45% of their outcomes are chopped off immediately. We now have a max NLCS outcomes at 55/100. Now let’s apply a 55% chance to win the NLDS because you believe they should no longer be at a disadvantage. 55% of of those 55 outcomes where they won the WC round leaves us with 30.25 out of 100 playoff runs where they advance to the NLCS.

50 vs 30.25% is a cataclysmic difference. That even assumes this proposed disadvantage doesn’t dissipate after 1 or 2 Games. Every number here was overly kind. No matter what you do, you cannot get a disadvantage in the following series to outweigh having to play one less. Byes are the best thing you can possibly get in all situations.

Remember Australopithecus, Jojo. Human brains can't truly conceptualize probability

 

[Chinatown88]

I feel as if every exec at BetMGM will have a diamond toilet by 2030.

I had no idea this was a thing before I google'd "Minecraft diamond toilet".

 

[Rebels57]

The Phillies outfield is a total disaster and was all year. They can potentially help this by moving Trea there. Would be an upgrade in the infield as well. They can't run it back with the exact same outfield setup though. Should be an interesting offseason.

Yup. This.

Of course, a Luis Robert Jr. trade would have gone a long way towards rectifying this, but Dombrowski napped through the deadline. This is his retirement side-gig afterall.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Robert had a wRC+ of FIFTY SIX in the 2nd Half. That's worse than Stubbs.

I have hated basically every move they made besides re-signing Nola this year, but that's one they got right if the goal was 2024 progress.

 

[Halladay]

Yup. This.

Of course, a Luis Robert Jr. trade would have gone a long way towards rectifying this, but Dombrowski napped through the deadline. This is his retirement side-gig afterall.

I dont mind them not trading for him, if they were going to trade for a big bat i wanted Arozarena. Robert is injured too often. I didn't like trading Seranthony and especially for a player who doesn't walk. He literally didn't walk once as a Phillie this year.

What they could have done this year is not signed Whit who was terrible the 2nd half of 2023 and just gave Wilson his plate appearances. At least see what he could do. I'd like to see what he can do at the start of next year.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

No deadline move was fixing this team. The window was open but there was nothing they could have done at the deadline to fix the team at that point.

Similar to the Sixers deadline, you save your bullets although there’s some situational differences there.

Luis Robert wasn’t saving this team. They were going to go as far as they would go as is.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Wonder how different the mentality is for a reliever when their offense is scoring runs vs aren’t scoring. A 1 run game is a 1 run game but coming in in the late innings in a 1-0 game vs a 6-5 game has to have a different feel. The systematic collapse of the bullpen was strange and I have to wonder if they felt too much pressure because there was no chance of the offense bailing them out. It was clear that Thompson waited too long to pull some pitchers and then threw guys in their over their head. Nothing like entering a 1-0 game late with the bases loaded and one out or less

 

[Rebels57]

Robert had a wRC+ of FIFTY SIX in the 2nd Half. That's worse than Stubbs.

I have hated basically every move they made besides re-signing Nola this year, but that's one they got right if the goal was 2024 progress.

Trading for him when his value was lowest is exactly why I wanted to make that move. He has far too much talent. He played on the worst team in MLB history. He is ripe for a big turn-around on a new team. A few of the guys moved at the deadline, including Arozarena, played a lot better after a fresh start.

I would absolutely explore Robert Jr. this offseason again.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Robert had a 33(!)% strikeout rate with a 6% walk rate (and that was an improvement on his career walk rate). I’m all for getting talent where you can, but that is a stylistic nightmare with what’s already on this roster.

He still has great raw power but his max EV has dropped off 4-5 mph in the last year two years in the prime of his career. Something is off.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

 

[Taijuan Fedotov]

Betting on sports is bad.

 

[DancingPanther]

Robert stinks. Soto doesn't.

If they let Alvarado go then they need to try to find cheap hard throwers with an out pitch to reload the bullpen. That's how you uncover guys like Hoffman or...well Alvarado