Other Sports: Philadelphia Phillies: The Road To .500 (2024 Edition)

DrinkFightFlyers

THE TORTURE NEVER STOPS
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Reading!?! That would be the Jackson Holliday path. Maybe Lakewood after the allstar break.
Yeah there is ZERO reason to rush this kid. The Phillies are set at SS for the foreseeable future (and 2B and 3B if they were to try and change up his position). Unpopular opinion but I'd rather sell high on him and see what he can return for a WS run. Not suggesting we trade him just to trade him but if there is a legitimate piece we can grab that isn't a rental or on the downside of his career I'd do it. Especially in Philly, baseball prospects are way too hard to project and far more likely to not be great than they are to be great. Think of all the big time prospects we've traded or acquired over the years that have fizzled vs. the ones that made it. Nick Williams? Sixto Sanchez? Tommy Joseph? Alfaro? And so forth and so on. Obviously there are success stories too in terms of guys like Bohm, Stott, Nola, etc. on the present roster or JRoll, Hamels, Howard, of the past, but I would take the bird in hand over the two in the bush if the bird in hand could put them over the top and not disappear next year.
 

FLYguy3911

Sanheim Lover
Oct 19, 2006
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Nick Williams? Sixto Sanchez? Tommy Joseph? Alfaro?
I mean all of those guys had serious flaws as hitters so it’s a bit apples and oranges. That’s not even retro, it was pointed out at the time. Plus it was nearly a decade ago under old management and scouting staff. Not sure it’s relevant really. There’s much more data and analysis on these guys so it’s not like you are going to pull a fast one on another team.

And Sixto’s flaw was his durability which Klentak was right in his gamble.

No the team should not hug every prospect and they are firmly in contender mode and Dombrowski has never been shy to move prospects, but you shouldn’t trade prospects just because you have them on hand. Unless you want a decade of futility like this team had the last time they were competitive. This is an aging roster, especially the hitters. They are eventually going to need to replace these guys internally. Miller won’t be a ML SS and his ETA is pretty much in line with when Bohm will be hitting free agency. Teams are also pushing their young players quicker than they have in the past. If he’s as good as his start suggests, he could be big league ready in two years.

There’s also knowing when to sell. A prospect in A-ball is always going to be discounted more than one performing in the upper minors. Miller is on the older side for a high schooler also (turns 20 next month) teams factor that in also. I’m not sure what he’s actually returning this year. Fangraphs had him outside the top 100 to start the year. I think MLB has him in the 50s currently but they are less reliable. He would need to be knocking at Reading’s door by the end of the season to have real value as a trade piece this year. Of course he could be packaged with other prospects but that could get sticky considering this isn’t the deepest pool.
 

trostol

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Rebels57

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Working in banking, I see elder abuse scams like this all too often. Last week one of our customers was nearly scammed out of $90K but our Wire Transfer Dept refused to approve it thankfully.
 

DrinkFightFlyers

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I mean all of those guys had serious flaws as hitters so it’s a bit apples and oranges. That’s not even retro, it was pointed out at the time. Plus it was nearly a decade ago under old management and scouting staff. Not sure it’s relevant really. There’s much more data and analysis on these guys so it’s not like you are going to pull a fast one on another team.

And Sixto’s flaw was his durability which Klentak was right in his gamble.

No the team should not hug every prospect and they are firmly in contender mode and Dombrowski has never been shy to move prospects, but you shouldn’t trade prospects just because you have them on hand. Unless you want a decade of futility like this team had the last time they were competitive. This is an aging roster, especially the hitters. They are eventually going to need to replace these guys internally. Miller won’t be a ML SS and his ETA is pretty much in line with when Bohm will be hitting free agency. Teams are also pushing their young players quicker than they have in the past. If he’s as good as his start suggests, he could be big league ready in two years.

There’s also knowing when to sell. A prospect in A-ball is always going to be discounted more than one performing in the upper minors. Miller is on the older side for a high schooler also (turns 20 next month) teams factor that in also. I’m not sure what he’s actually returning this year. Fangraphs had him outside the top 100 to start the year. I think MLB has him in the 50s currently but they are less reliable. He would need to be knocking at Reading’s door by the end of the season to have real value as a trade piece this year. Of course he could be packaged with other prospects but that could get sticky considering this isn’t the deepest pool.
Yeah that's why I said don't trade him just to trade him. But if someone is available that suits this team's needs I'd rather strike now while the iron is hot than hope 3-4 years from now both he and the Phillies are still where they are now. I'm not suggesting trading him for a middle reliever or for a 35 year old rental or just shopping him to all the other teams in the league to see what's out there. I'm suggesting that if there is an opportunity to get an impact player present and future and the cost involves Miller, I'd be interested. Now if he was ripping his way through the minors and had crushed at every level thus far and he's knocking on the door, that's a different story. But this kid is still probably a couple years away from being called up and that's if he stays healthy and stays on this trajectory, neither of which are anywhere close to a sure thing.
 

JojoTheWhale

CORN BOY
May 22, 2008
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I’m not sure what he’s actually returning this year. Fangraphs had him outside the top 100 to start the year. I think MLB has him in the 50s currently but they are less reliable.

I know Longenhagen has a major problem with projecting swings with those huge load ups before they start seeing MLB velocity, so it wouldn't surprise me if he moved fairly aggressively on their list given that progress. I know BA already ticked him up.
 
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FLYguy3911

Sanheim Lover
Oct 19, 2006
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How you feeling about the Mead trade now?
Sanchez is definitely the better player today. Mead is still less than 200 PAs into his big league career and hitting as a young player has never been harder so we'll see. Sanchez also provided no value for 3.5 years while Mead was a top 100 prospect for most of that time so that was a trade chip they were missing out on. Credit to the development staff for getting to this version of Sanchez even if it wasn't the smoothest.

I feel like from a process standpoint though, if you trade a kid from your complex league, they can't turn out to be top 100 prospects (Tatis Jr. says hello lol).

I know Longenhagen has a major problem with projecting swings with those huge load ups before they start seeing MLB velocity, so it wouldn't surprise me if he moved fairly aggressively on their list given that progress. I know BA already ticked him up.
He's also pretty conservative with low minors guys unless they play an up the middle position. And while Miller has pop, I don't think he has the max exit velos to get these guys overly excited until he displays the power consistently as he moves up.
 

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