OT: Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): 2013 Regular Season

[Broad Street Elite]

My point in mentioning your BABIP argument is that fallacy that because the Phillies may have a bad defense that will doom them to "struggle for .500". I think the statistics in the area of team fielding demonstrate that there is little to no correlation that would suggest that fielding is a strong predictor of team success.

I would contend that this team will live and die with injuries as any aging team will. If we miss the playoffs, it will be because one or more of our aging stars spends a significant time on the disabled list.... not because of any potential shortcomings we have in team defense.

I, for one, am not convinved that Young plays, that Ruff stays nor that Michael Young is going to be a defensive albatross in the manner you are suggesting. I expect this team to be middle of the pack defenisvely based principally on the notion that our defense up the middle is so strong and our pitchers will be successful in covering that weakness.

Furthermore, your BABIP prediction (.35) is insane. No team in the last decade has had a number higher than the .331 put up by the Rays in 2006.

 

[Protest]

And ****, I'm not really very confident that the offense can even improve that much - Ruiz is suspended 50 games and unlikely to repeat a career year (BIG downgrade at C offensively), we have big downgrades offensively at CF/RF from Vic and Pence to Revere and Young, the other Young is, at best, a lateral move from what we had last season at 3B - the only spots that are going to be upgrades are 1B and 2B... and even then just HOW much are they going to be (especially considering the downgrades in other areas)? Howard was an average MLB 1B offensively before he got injured, are we going to be 'saved' by him miraculously returning to 'form'? Utley will be a big upgrade even if he isn't the Chase of old (despite being it, haha), but not nearly enough for what this broken down team 'needs'.

Honestly, this team is, at best, going to fight to be .500 all year. The most frustrating part, though, is that everyone is going to wonder why all year because the aces are all going to have great stats and the "Big Piece" will have 30-40 HRs... and, if given the chance, Amaro will keep this 'core' in tact and try to 'tweak the formula' once more... slamming that square peg into a round hole until his knuckles (which presumably drag upon the ground) bleed.

Ruiz is only gone for 25 games, but he should drop off a decent amount. Revere isn't a huge downgrade to last year's version of Victorino. Definitely in the power department, but he makes up for some of it with baserunning. Has anyone actually said Young is starting in RF? Dom Brown or a platoon of him and someone else has the potential to put up Pence like numbers. If Howard performs like he did in 2011 he'll be a huge upgrade at 1B, and if Utley is healthy he'll be another huge upgrade.

There's a lot of if's there, that's why I don't expect much, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of stuff went the Phils ways this year.

 

[CootaRoo]

I think the statistics in the area of team fielding demonstrate that there is little to no correlation that would suggest that fielding is a strong predictor of team success.

Uh huh... very interesting. Two quick questions, though:

1) Why would there have been?

2) Who said there was?

While you are at it, can you please do some 'research' and 'analysis' to prove that there is no concrete correlative trend between AVG, WHIP, et al and winning percentage as well? Then you could also make your 'argument' that batting and pitching statistics don't equate to success either (which is exactly what you are attempting to say about defense, fyi)!

I mean, really, did you not read any of my last post. I mean, you quoted portions of it, so you must have at least glossed it over, no?

I would contend that this team will live and die with injuries as any aging team will. If we miss the playoffs, it will be because one or more of our aging stars spends a significant time on the disabled list.... not because of any potential shortcomings we have in team defense.

Well, you are more than welcome to 'contend' that. It will make it easier for you (and inept Phillies management) to give the team another 'pass' and keep our 'window of opportunity' open with more 'tweaks around our core' after the upcoming disappointing season.

I, for one, am not convinved that Young plays, that Ruff stays nor that Michael Young is going to be a defensive albatross in the manner you are suggesting. I expect this team to be middle of the pack defenisvely based principally on the notion that our defense up the middle is so strong and our pitchers will be successful in covering that weakness.

Well, Michael Young WILL be the defensive albatross in the manner I am suggesting... every empirical reference points to the fact. I, too, hold out hope that we will come to our senses and not put Delmon Young in RF - but I consider it a naive hope considering Chollie's track record and Amaro's offseason commentary on the subject.

As for our strong defense up the middle, could you direct me to it? Rollins is a legit GG SS, noone can deny that, but Utley was a statistical average fielding 2B when healthy and the past 2 seasons has been a tick below average (with a tangible downward trend between 2011 and 2012 - a 8% decrease in RF). With bad knees at age 34 you'll have to forgive me if I have concerns about his ability to 'bounce back to average' in the upcoming season.

As for Revere, in his career thus far (as small a sample size as it may be) he has been a slightly above average RF (91 career games) and average CF (134 career games) statistically. Even if we allow for the plausibility of development with the glove from the youngster (a rarity, fyi) he still only represents a pretty even trade-off from Victorino in CF - which is pretty damn worrisome when we are contemplating two cement pillars starting in our corner OF slots - maybe we will play a new version of the "no doubles defense" in which we have our 2B and SS stand in the OF gaps.

Furthermore, your BABIP prediction (.35) is insane. No team in the last decade has had a number higher than the .331 put up by the Rays in 2006.

That team didn't have a Jimmy Rollins equivalent anchoring it, but position by position they were arguably better defensively, imo. .35 was always meant to be hyperbole, but posting the worst BABIP in a decade is absolutely what I expect... with Michael Young at 3B, Delmon Young in RF and Darrin Ruff in LF every day I honestly believe we will be a HISTORICALLY bad defense - THAT is not hyperbole.

 

[CootaRoo]

Ruiz is only gone for 25 games, but he should drop off a decent amount.

Hm, thanks for pointing that out. I thought every 1st offense for banned substances was 50 games?

Revere isn't a huge downgrade to last year's version of Victorino. Definitely in the power department, but he makes up for some of it with baserunning.

Victorino last year with the Phillies (worst season of his career):
101 games, .324 OBP, .724 OPS, 24 SB, 85% success rate

Revere last year with the Brewers (best season of his *young* career):
124 games, .333 OBP, .675 OPS, 40 SB, 81.5% success rate

True, the downgrade from '12 Vic isn't a chasm, but it is absolutely tangible - especially since him 'making some of it up' with the most overrated statistic in baseball is a complete myth (he ended with a worse SB success rate).

Has anyone actually said Young is starting in RF?

Amaro has. Coulple that with Chollie's evident disdain for Brown (and playing young players from the Phillies' system in general) and I choose to not hold my breath for common sense to fall upon the '13 Phil's opening day lineup decisions.

Dom Brown or a platoon of him and someone else has the potential to put up Pence like numbers.

Yeah, if we platooned Ruff/Howard at 1B, Brown/Mayberry in RF and Young/Nix in LF I think all 3 positions would post well above replacement level value... that doesn't mean the Phillies would ever do it.

If Howard performs like he did in 2011 he'll be a huge upgrade at 1B

You mean when he finished the season with <1 WAR because for the 2nd season in a row he had an OPS in the middle of the pack league wide for 1B?

and if Utley is healthy he'll be another huge upgrade.

That really is the only one I'm going to concede, but is whatever a 'healthy' Utley is at this point going to help THAT much - even if this one if works out?

There's a lot of if's there, that's why I don't expect much, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of stuff went the Phils ways this year.

I really hate pissing on blind optimism with facts... I feel like I'm trying to convince a friend that the girl he loves is cheating on him. I really am thinking of your best interests by opening your eyes - promise!

 

[BringBackHakstol]

My point in mentioning your BABIP argument is that fallacy that because the Phillies may have a bad defense that will doom them to "struggle for .500". I think the statistics in the area of team fielding demonstrate that there is little to no correlation that would suggest that fielding is a strong predictor of team success.

I would contend that this team will live and die with injuries as any aging team will. If we miss the playoffs, it will be because one or more of our aging stars spends a significant time on the disabled list.... not because of any potential shortcomings we have in team defense.

I, for one, am not convinved that Young plays, that Ruff stays nor that Michael Young is going to be a defensive albatross in the manner you are suggesting. I expect this team to be middle of the pack defenisvely based principally on the notion that our defense up the middle is so strong and our pitchers will be successful in covering that weakness.

Furthermore, your BABIP prediction (.35) is insane. No team in the last decade has had a number higher than the .331 put up by the Rays in 2006.

Are you trying to say that quality of fielding isn't a component of success?

 

[Broad Street Elite]

Are you trying to say that quality of fielding isn't a component of success?

I'm saying that our defense won't be the deciding factor.

Fielding, in my opinion, is the least impactful of the holy trinity (Hitting, Pitching, and Fielding) akin to Special Teams in football. Can it betray you and cost you a game/series? Absolutely. I do not, however, expect our defense to be so historically bad such as to cause a complete collapse if everything or a significant portion of the other factors break in our favor. Many, many, many MLB teams have won the World Series with mediocre team defense (San Francsico being a prime example).

As I stated previously, if there is a failing of this club it is its age and propensity for injury. Team defense just isn't a big enough problem to outweigh the other areas IF we were to stay healthy (or mostly healthy).

Frankly, I'm done with the statistical arguments. Those who tend to use them as a crutch pick a narrative, then snipe the appropriate stats to support their cause in the face of all of the other empirical evidence. I came to this conclusion after the last debate about the upcoming Phillies TV contract.

If someone who think the Phillies are a .500 team wants to make an avatar bet or something, I'm in.

 

[Protest]

Victorino last year with the Phillies (worst season of his career):
101 games, .324 OBP, .724 OPS, 24 SB, 85% success rate

Revere last year with the Brewers (best season of his *young* career):
124 games, .333 OBP, .675 OPS, 40 SB, 81.5% success rate

True, the downgrade from '12 Vic isn't a chasm, but it is absolutely tangible - especially since him 'making some of it up' with the most overrated statistic in baseball is a complete myth (he ended with a worse SB success rate).

So better OBP, and a decent amount of less power like I said. I also meant baserunning as in baserunning, not just stolen bases. Victorino is dumb, he doesn't know how to run the bases, he's just fast. How many times have you yelled what are you doing at him?

Also, I'm not a fan of the stat, but if you like UZR Revere has been a way better fielder the past 2 years, and had the same WAR as Victorino did last year because of it.

Amaro has. Coulple that with Chollie's evident disdain for Brown (and playing young players from the Phillies' system in general) and I choose to not hold my breath for common sense to fall upon the '13 Phil's opening day lineup decisions.

Yeah, if we platooned Ruff/Howard at 1B, Brown/Mayberry in RF and Young/Nix in LF I think all 3 positions would post well above replacement level value... that doesn't mean the Phillies would ever do it.

I don't know if Charlie is against playing young guys, I think he has certain guys he's mind bottling loyal to, like Raul. I don't see Young as being one of those guys. I'm hoping Brown forces Charlie to play him.

You mean when he finished the season with <1 WAR because for the 2nd season in a row he had an OPS in the middle of the pack league wide for 1B?

Yes his middle of the pack OPS for 1B was over 100 points higher than what we got out of that position last year. That is a huge upgrade in my book.

That really is the only one I'm going to concede, but is whatever a 'healthy' Utley is at this point going to help THAT much - even if this one if works out?

He finished last year with a .365 OBP while batting .256 with a .261 BABIP. With better luck he would be in the upper 300's for OBP like he used to. That's healthy enough to me.

I really hate pissing on blind optimism with facts... I feel like I'm trying to convince a friend that the girl he loves is cheating on him. I really am thinking of your best interests by opening your eyes - promise!

First off, since when is saying "I don't expect this to happen" blind optimism? Secondly, your facts didn't disprove anything I said.

 

[Karma]

Cleveland Indians signed Michael Bourn to a 4 year deal worth $48million.

 

[JDinkalage Morgoone]

Pitchers and catchers, y'all.

 

[PhillyPhinn]

Anyone planning to play fantasy this year? I played fantasy football for the first time this year, and even though I liked it, I love football and the NFL so much that I don't need fantasy to keep me entertained. I also don't like the split allegiances you get during games, as I usually love to root hard for a certain team during games, and having the opposing QB on your fantasy team ruins the fun.

With that being said, my interest in baseball has waned the last few years, and I've pretty much just checked the scores and watched the playoffs. I used to watch at least 50% of the Phillies games a few years back(yes, I'm a bandwagoner), but didn't watch much last year. I'd love to have a north american sport to follow in the summer as well, so fantasy baseball would probably be fun as I would have a reason to follow it more closely. Baseball is a total non-factor in Finland, so I have no friends to play with, and don't like the idea of playing in a league with random strangers.

Are there any moderately serious fantasy baseball players on here, who would be interested in inviting me to a league?

 

[montreal]

Michael Schwimer traded to the jays for a 1b prospect, Art Charles.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Michael-Schwimer-traded-to-Blue-Jays.html

 

[FLYguy3911]

Michael Schwimer traded to the jays for a 1b prospect, Art Charles.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Michael-Schwimer-traded-to-Blue-Jays.html

Saw that. It was only a matter of time before he was moved.

Charles is power guy that walks a lot, strikes out a lot, and is a long ways away. Already 22 and hasn't played full season ball yet. We'll see how he does. Can't really hate the move. Schwimer was a guy that had problems with the organization and they already had enough similar right handed relief guys with a similar profile.

 

[CutOnDime97]

Dom Brown homered on a pinch hit in the 8th inning today. The Phils play tomorrow on the MLB Network at 1.

 

[SnS]

Well okay, Schwimmer ; http://www.philliedelphia.com/2013/...t-phillies-is-going-to-aaa-for-blue-jays.html

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Well okay, Schwimmer ; http://www.philliedelphia.com/2013/...t-phillies-is-going-to-aaa-for-blue-jays.html

Lol. Sour grapes leave such a bad taste...

 

[Karma]

If I remember correctly, that guy sucked every time he came in to pitch.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Game is on TV today on TCN.

 

[Protest]

If I remember correctly, that guy sucked every time he came in to pitch.

You remember correctly.

 

[JDinkalage Morgoone]

I wouldn't have cared if they moved Schwimer for $25. I never liked the dude when he came in, and Charlie seemed to use him at the worst times.

 

[zarley zelepukin]

Lol. Sour grapes leave such a bad taste...

Regimented and plan-oriented?! Wow what a hateful comment! How dare he!

If I remember correctly, that guy sucked every time he came in to pitch.

Not really, he had a 3.50 ERA from June through August last year.

It's no big loss. He's a fringy 6th/7th inning guy, like Chad Durbin but less established in the majors (and cheaper). It just seems like things took a wrong turn between him and the organization and he's not the type of talent you put up with a headache for. He may very well be justified in filing a grievance against the team, if he does, but I don't really blame the organization for moving him.

 

[montreal]

Tommy Joseph smacked a 2 run HR today in his first AB for the phils (acquired in the Hunter Pence trade) D Brown also crushed one to deep center.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Anyone else hear Dustin Brown on WIP earlier today? He does not sound like he has the mindset to be a big leaguer (at least he didn't in this interview). The guys were asking him about why he thought he was sent down and what he has been working on and he was just kind of like, "whatever man, I don't make the calls, I just do my best." And they asked what he thinks about making the team this year and if there is any pressure and it was a similar "whatever man, if they send me down they send me down." This is the opposite of what DeFratus said the other day on the show when they asked him similar questions and he basically said "this is it, I have to make the team and do everything I can to stay up, etc." That's what I would expect from a prospect who is really on the verge of making or breaking his career, not Brown's response.

I was a big Dom Brown supporter from the get-go and always defended him to friends (and probably people on here), but hearing him today makes me worried. Still pulling for him but that interview really just rubbed me the wrong way.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Anyone else hear Dustin Brown on WIP earlier today? He does not sound like he has the mindset to be a big leaguer (at least he didn't in this interview). The guys were asking him about why he thought he was sent down and what he has been working on and he was just kind of like, "whatever man, I don't make the calls, I just do my best." And they asked what he thinks about making the team this year and if there is any pressure and it was a similar "whatever man, if they send me down they send me down." This is the opposite of what DeFratus said the other day on the show when they asked him similar questions and he basically said "this is it, I have to make the team and do everything I can to stay up, etc." That's what I would expect from a prospect who is really on the verge of making or breaking his career, not Brown's response.

I was a big Dom Brown supporter from the get-go and always defended him to friends (and probably people on here), but hearing him today makes me worried. Still pulling for him but that interview really just rubbed me the wrong way.

Damn you Dustin Brown.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Tommy Joseph smacked a 2 run HR today in his first AB for the phils (acquired in the Hunter Pence trade) D Brown also crushed one to deep center.

It was actually his 3rd AB. Went 0-2 the other day.

Damn you Dustin Brown.

Heard he has trouble with off-speed stuff

 

[JDinkalage Morgoone]

Anyone else hear Dustin Brown on WIP earlier today? He does not sound like he has the mindset to be a big leaguer (at least he didn't in this interview). The guys were asking him about why he thought he was sent down and what he has been working on and he was just kind of like, "whatever man, I don't make the calls, I just do my best." And they asked what he thinks about making the team this year and if there is any pressure and it was a similar "whatever man, if they send me down they send me down." This is the opposite of what DeFratus said the other day on the show when they asked him similar questions and he basically said "this is it, I have to make the team and do everything I can to stay up, etc." That's what I would expect from a prospect who is really on the verge of making or breaking his career, not Brown's response.

I was a big Dom Brown supporter from the get-go and always defended him to friends (and probably people on here), but hearing him today makes me worried. Still pulling for him but that interview really just rubbed me the wrong way.

I usually don't put any stock into that stuff but I heard the interview and it really was a head-scratcher. I have no idea what he was talking about.