OT: Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): 2013 Regular Season
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JDinkalage Morgoone
U of South Flurrida
DeadPhish5858
Rumham!
I'm headed down to Clearwater for the first time. The in-laws live in Tampa so I can kill two birds with one stone.
Nice. I've always wanted to go down to ST. I can never get anyone to go with me though. Haha.
usahockey22flyers
2 years away from being 2 years away
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,711
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I was gonna go down last year, but something came up. One of these years I'll get down there.
Yup, it's going to be interesting watching the Nats and Braves battle it out.
montreal
Go Habs Go
Over at ESPN Insider, Keith Law did a top 100 where he had 2 phils,
92: Adam Morgan
95: Jesse Biddle
He also ranked the phillies farm system at 27th, ouch.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/stor...spects-2013-jurickson-profar-dylan-bundy-more
Putting Morgan over Biddle is very surprising imo although I really like what I saw from Morgan in AA last year. One things for sure, the phils got a couple very interesting pitching prospects in Biddle, Morgan, Martin and Wright. Within two years we could see one or more knocking on the door as long as they aren't traded before then of course.
92: Adam Morgan
95: Jesse Biddle
He also ranked the phillies farm system at 27th, ouch.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/stor...spects-2013-jurickson-profar-dylan-bundy-more
Putting Morgan over Biddle is very surprising imo although I really like what I saw from Morgan in AA last year. One things for sure, the phils got a couple very interesting pitching prospects in Biddle, Morgan, Martin and Wright. Within two years we could see one or more knocking on the door as long as they aren't traded before then of course.
Hope we come out swinging and putting up hits instead of swinging at the first pitch and popping it up.
JDinkalage Morgoone
U of South Flurrida
I think a lot of people are sleeping on the Phillies and will be rudely awoken this season. I have some good vibes.
Be sure to go to Lenny's for breakfast one day. It's a really good time down there
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,711
- 89,994
Over at ESPN Insider, Keith Law did a top 100 where he had 2 phils,
92: Adam Morgan
95: Jesse Biddle
He also ranked the phillies farm system at 27th, ouch.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/stor...spects-2013-jurickson-profar-dylan-bundy-more
Putting Morgan over Biddle is very surprising imo although I really like what I saw from Morgan in AA last year. One things for sure, the phils got a couple very interesting pitching prospects in Biddle, Morgan, Martin and Wright. Within two years we could see one or more knocking on the door as long as they aren't traded before then of course.
No surprise. Law usually isn't too fond of Phillies' prospects. I like Law though. Different view on guys for the most part.
MLB.com released their top 100. Martin and Biddle made the cut. MLB.com's lists have gone down over the years. I wouldn't put too much stock into their rankings.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/
JohnnyOnTheSpot
I Believe in G-Sus
Phillies are going to make the playoffs this year. Once Howard was back in the lineup I'm pretty sure they played .600+ ball. People underestimate the effect his presence has. He may not be what he once was, but he's feared and makes pitchers go after the other hitters. He just adds a whole new element to our lineup.
I like the additions we've made, and I think Utley's going to have a real good year as well. Lots of chips on lots of shoulders.
I like the additions we've made, and I think Utley's going to have a real good year as well. Lots of chips on lots of shoulders.
Protest
C`est La Vie
If the Phils had any bullpen last year they would have made the playoffs. Hopefully this will be a crazy bounce back year. I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had around a 90-93 win year.
BringBackHakstol
Registered User
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
- Oct 19, 2006
- 54,711
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JDinkalage Morgoone
U of South Flurrida
I don't have any numbers if that is what you are asking for. As a fan, I'm generally optimistic and I don't see how having a healthy Utley and Howard (however bad you think they've regressed, they're better than what we fielded last season) as well as a revamped bullpen with the addition of Adams, Aumont and other then rookies having a season in the bigs, Stutes possibly coming back, I just have a pretty good feeling. I think Lannan will be seen as a nice signing.
But as I said, I have a generally optimistic opinion of the Phils more often than not. The way they played in the second half toward the end of the season had to inspire a bit of hope in you, no?
CootaRoo
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2012
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Our offense might bounce back a bit (at least in terms of SLG, our OBP is going to be crazy bad regardless, though).
Our bullpen is going to be great, no doubt.
If Roy bounces back our rotation is (again) one of the best in the league (I've always defended KK as a 4/5 and Lannan was the only signing I liked this offseason).
But our defense? There is a better than odds chance that we are going to be putting 4 DH candidates onto the diamond every single half inning... Young at 3B, Young in RF, Ruff in LF and Howard at 1B... I wouldn't be surprised if our team BABIP pushes .350 - maybe even worse. We also have a 2B with shaky knees, A GG C suspended for 50 games, a GG SS approaching the wrong end of the 30s (though he is still BY FAR the smallest question mark in the field) and a CF that played last season in RF and, by all accounts, would throw harder if he had his arm surgically replaced with a wet noodle.
So that great pitching staff you put together? You COMPLETELY waste them with no defense behind. A 50 point increase in BABIP is going to bloat their WHIPs probably 15-20 points a piece which could potentially bloat their ERAs upwards of 1 whole point apiece. That is an entire extra run every single game that our offense (which is going to live and die by the solo HR, btw, since noone is capable of getting on base at a respectable clip [except a fully healthy Utley])" is going to need to make up.
You'll have to forgive me for being... what did you call it? Pessimistic?
Here is some optimism for you. I am optimistic that the Phillies brass will finally axe Manuel and Amaro after the ****-show that the upcoming season is surely going to be. And that is the best thing for the franchise moving forward, bar none.
Broad Street Elite
Registered User
- Nov 9, 2011
- 4,159
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Where did the San Francisco Giants rank in BABIP against for 2012 and does BABIP against typically correlate in a predictive way to winning?
I did a little research on the topic this morning after seeing your post and frankly there seems to be little and certainly no statistically significant relationship between BABIP against and the playoffs or winning over the last 5 years.
BTW, used Fangraphs when I was looking at this.
I did a little research on the topic this morning after seeing your post and frankly there seems to be little and certainly no statistically significant relationship between BABIP against and the playoffs or winning over the last 5 years.
BTW, used Fangraphs when I was looking at this.
JohnnyOnTheSpot
I Believe in G-Sus
CootaRoo, Howard isn't as abysmal a fielder as you say. I can't speak for the Youngs, Ruff is going to be tough but I expect him to play better than he did last year since he was playing OF in winter league.
As for Chase, you say he has shaky knees on second but he played phenomenally last year if you recall. His only errors were really from bobbling the ball, not from leg work. I'm not worried about him at all.
As for Chase, you say he has shaky knees on second but he played phenomenally last year if you recall. His only errors were really from bobbling the ball, not from leg work. I'm not worried about him at all.
BringBackHakstol
Registered User
Very few players on this team can reasonably be expected to improve significantly. Just about every key piece is on a downward trajectory.
Too much has to go right for this to be a good season
Too much has to go right for this to be a good season
JDinkalage Morgoone
U of South Flurrida
I'm not gonna knock you for your expectations, it certainly could happen. While I am optimistic about next year, I certainly have my doubts, I assure you. The team defense as a whole certainly is an issue. I want to see it in action though before I automatically write it off.
Your pessimism is certainly not unfounded. I just have faith. Maybe it's blind faith, but I like to go into the season with hope.
CootaRoo
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2012
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Yeah... just like there is no statistical relationship between WHIP and winning over the last 5 years, or AVG or HRs or any other number of stats. It is one piece of the puzzle. The ONLY team stat that you can genuinely find to predict wins on a regular basis is run differential (and even then not as much as you'd think). I really, truly, have no idea what you were trying to prove with your effort.
A more genuine analysis would have been comparing the effect of BABIP on team pitching metrics. Here is the trend from last season:
Rockies: .325 BABIP, 5.22 ERA, 4.28 xFIP
Brewers: .313 BABIP, 4.22 ERA, 3.73 xFIP
Royals: .311 BABIP, 4.3 ERA, 4.18 xFIP
Tigers: .307 BABIP, 3.77 ERA, 3.63 xFIP
Astros: .306, 4.57 ERA, 4.15 xFIP
Those were the worst 5 teams in BABIP last season. They had an average of 12.4 points over .300 and average delta of .378 runs between ERA and xFIP (and, for those whom are unaware, xFIP is a defense-independent correlative stat with ERA - aka. what a pitcher's talent SHOULD have netted them in ERA without either the positive or negative effects of their team behind them).
So, that comes out to .3 delta runs per 10 points of BABIP. If the 2013 Phillies (which make the '12 Rockies look like a team of GG'ers) truly meet my expectations of ineptitude in the field (a .35 BABIP) then it could potentially cost them 1.5 runs PER GAME based on this analysis (with an admittedly sparse sample size - which is why I rounded down considerably to get my estimate of losing a mere 1 run per game due to defense).
So, the question then becomes... do you think the Phillies offense is good enough to overcome 1-1.5 runs per game that their defense is going to cost them? I, personally, do not see them as being much better than average in run production. (A healthy) Utley is the only player capable of getting on base at a respectable clip and HRs mean considerably less when they are 50/50 to be of the solo variety.
So, let's bring this into a full hypothetical now. Let's say the Phillies pitching staff is going to be absolutely lights out and put up a 3.5 xFIP next season (.09 points better than last year's best team - the Rays [PS. the Phillies were, a bit surprisingly, the #2 team with a 3.61 xFIP last season]). Their team ERA would then be between 4.5-5 after defensive ineptitude is accounted for. Last season, for comparison, the Phillies put up 4.2 runs per game. To break even in run differential, they would need to score between 729 and 810 runs (4.5 and 5 runs per game average respectively) - an increase of 45-126 runs over last season... just to be able to expect to be .500 (with a neutral run differential)!
And ****, I'm not really very confident that the offense can even improve that much - Ruiz is suspended 50 games and unlikely to repeat a career year (BIG downgrade at C offensively), we have big downgrades offensively at CF/RF from Vic and Pence to Revere and Young, the other Young is, at best, a lateral move from what we had last season at 3B - the only spots that are going to be upgrades are 1B and 2B... and even then just HOW much are they going to be (especially considering the downgrades in other areas)? Howard was an average MLB 1B offensively before he got injured, are we going to be 'saved' by him miraculously returning to 'form'? Utley will be a big upgrade even if he isn't the Chase of old (despite being it, haha), but not nearly enough for what this broken down team 'needs'.
Honestly, this team is, at best, going to fight to be .500 all year. The most frustrating part, though, is that everyone is going to wonder why all year because the aces are all going to have great stats and the "Big Piece" will have 30-40 HRs... and, if given the chance, Amaro will keep this 'core' in tact and try to 'tweak the formula' once more... slamming that square peg into a round hole until his knuckles (which presumably drag upon the ground) bleed.
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