Other Sports: Philadelphia Phillies 2025 (Spring Training Forward): Deferring to 2036

[JojoTheWhale]

They made it to the World Series with Kyle in LF and Rhys at 1B every day. I feel like people forget that. Two of the absolute worst fielders at their respective positions that year.

They've improved their LF, CF, and 1B defense over the past 2 seasons and yet have diminishing returns to show for it.

Now, I would have obviously loved to trade Nick prior to adding a player like Teoscar. But, I would be absolutely fine with Teoscar and Nick as the corner OFers. Historically, Kepler isn't much better in the OF, and has been slightly worse this season so far, while providing next to nothing at the plate.

To frame it a different way, we can afford Teoscar's shortcoming more than Keplers at this point. The only real argument there is contract.

I get what you mean, but I just can't agree that Kepler is a similar player in the field.

Since the start of 2022, there are 137 Qualified OFers in Savant's database. Kepler is 16th in OAA with +19. Hernandez is 127th with -17 (or -18 if you go by Fangraphs). Castellanos is 134th with -24. And while we're here, Schwarber is dead last with -32.

I believe the chief difference there is range. Hernandez is like Castellanos and Soto in that he just doesn't cover much ground. Kepler's up with guys like Corbin Carroll and Steven Kwan among the COFs with the biggest range.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The year they had Schwarber & Castellanos as their two everyday corner OFer’s was brutal.

 

[Magua]

I think I’d rather have Bader than Marsh.

It’s a very slim silver lining, but Marsh’s BB rate has remained high. His BABIP is also atrocious for a decently fast guy, but he’s hitting a million ground balls. It’s not good. But Bohm has literally been the worst position player in baseball. I’d take Greg Dobbs right now.

 

[Cody Webster]

Lost fantasy this week by .8 points.

Was down 4 points heading into yesterday and was supposed to have Baz and Ragans pitching compared to the five pitchers he had going. Ragans pitched a gem and Baz got scratched from his start, so figured I had no chance at winning. Checked last night and saw the score...221.13 to 221.9. That one hurt, but somehow wasn't even the closest score of the week. There was another matchup where the score ended up 221.13 to 221.02. We've been doing this for 15+ years and don't remember one, let alone two, matchups being that close

 

[DancingPanther]

It’s a very slim silver lining, but Marsh’s BB rate has remained high. His BABIP is also atrocious for a decently fast guy, but he’s hitting a million ground balls. It’s not good. But Bohm has literally been the worst position player in baseball. I’d take Greg Dobbs right now.

True life: I say behind a Greg Dobbs jersey 2 seasons ago at CBP.

 

[Rebels57]

I get what you mean, but I just can't agree that Kepler is a similar player in the field.

Since the start of 2022, there are 137 Qualified OFers in Savant's database. Kepler is 16th in OAA with +19. Hernandez is 127th with -17 (or -18 if you go by Fangraphs). Castellanos is 134th with -24. And while we're here, Schwarber is dead last with -32.

I believe the chief difference there is range. Hernandez is like Castellanos and Soto in that he just doesn't cover much ground. Kepler's up with guys like Corbin Carroll and Steven Kwan among the COFs with the biggest range.

Didnt realize Kepler had range like that. Havent seen anything special from him in LF this season so far and his DWAR is worse than Teoscar's so far. Is it possible his OF play is declining? He is 32 afterall. If so, including 2022-2023 might not be relevant when analyzing his current defensive abilities.

 

[Rebels57]

The year they had Schwarber & Castellanos as their two everyday corner OFer’s was brutal.

They were 2 games away from winning it all lol

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Didnt realize Kepler had range like that. Havent seen anything special from him in LF this season so far and his DWAR is worse than Teoscar's so far. Is it possible his OF play is declining? He is 32 afterall. If so, including 2022-2023 might not be relevant when analyzing his current defensive abilities.

Sure, it could easily be true. I tend to take a 3 year sample with defensive metrics just because they’re so volatile from year to year, but that would be a weakness of the approach. As always, we can massage these things.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

They were 2 games away from winning it all lol

In a small sample sure but when the sample grew bigger into the following season it was rough having two big defensive liabilities in the corner spots of your OF. That was Schwarber’s worst season as a Phillie that year going by WAR, he was in the negative’s for most of it unto Harper was able to play 1B freeing up the DH spot back.

 

[Magua]

Cy Young aura.

 

[DancingPanther]

might not be relevant when analyzing his current defensive abilities.

Neither is DWAR. Those calculations use UZR, which isn't the optimal indicator of an outfielder's defense. OAA is excellent for outfielders because it takes into account catch probability and rewards players for converting difficult catches. UZR kind of does this, but the way it does it is a little weird. It takes the data of the batted ball (velo, mainly) and the position it "lands" and assigns that particular path a difficulty. The higher the difficulty, the more you're rewarded if you convert an out. The problem is it determines how difficult the catch is based on historical data. "This batted ball profile was caught 40% of the time" type of thing. It doesn't care about how far the fielder had to travel on the play, for example. OOA does. This is particularly important with all the shifting going on in the 2020s.

If you've ever seen those "catch probability" metrics on ESPN or whatever, that is what is being used to quantify the "outs" in Outs Above Average. I hope I'm articulating how/why this is different and suboptimal for outfielders in particular.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He's baaaackkkkk

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Welp Walker’s back.

 

[Flybynite]

 

[Magua]

Cy Young aura.

Never mind, it was Pazuzu, not the spirit of Cy Young. That’s the last time I play with my Ouija board!

 

[Rebels57]

Bad team is bad. This is who they are. Its been more than 80 games in a row of this. Fire Thomson and Dombrowski before the window fully slams closed.

 

[Cody Webster]

I see the clock struck midnight

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Harper stinks right now.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Ump Show.

 

[trostol]

did JT just get rung up by a pitch that was "just a bit outside"

 

[DancingPanther]

In the latest and perhaps greatest installment of "great Philadelphia teams correspond with juggernauts", the Dodgers exist now. It just stinks. This team has been so good for the last few seasons, and the 2022 team was at the end of the Astros run. They're a top 5 team in the league on paper at the worst time. Frustrating

 

[Rebels57]

did JT just get rung up by a pitch that was "just a bit outside"

And Slopper couldnt be bothered to argue one of the worst punch-out calls you'll ever see. He's a lazy bum. Send his ass back to the Yankees.

 

[antman12]

And Slopper couldnt be bothered to argue one of the worst punch-out calls you'll ever see. He's a lazy bum. Send his ass back to the Yankees.

He cared more about the freakin lights than he did JT/his team getting screwed.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

He cared more about the freakin lights than he did JT/his team getting screwed.

I still haven't seen it I was listening in the radio and they were ripping the call pretty hard.

 

[antman12]

I still haven't seen it I was listening in the radio and they were ripping the call pretty hard.

I tried to screenshot as close to possible when the ball would be crossing the plate.