Wheeler has great stuff, two solid seasons after TJ surgery, but he's never quite put it all together.
Throws 97, touches 100, with his 4 seamer, 2 seamer, hard slider, hard curve, changeup.
The raw material for an ace is there.
So there's the typical downside with a FA pitcher, but also more upside than you get with most top FAs who are getting top dollar because they're at their peak and getting paid for that peak. Wheeler's been a 3.5-4 WAR pitcher the last two years, so he's worth $20-25M just off that (though durability issues in the past probably resulted in a discount).
The wildcards are Eflin, Howard and Seabold.
Eflin had one awful month last season, otherwise pitched like a solid middle of the rotation guy. Hopefully, the new pitching coach won't mess with him the way the old one did.
Howard has great stuff, touches 100 with 4 pitches.
Seabold doesn't throw as hard but has great command and actually out pitched Howard in the Arizona Fall League.
And of course, Arrieta without bone spurs should have one decent year in him before he rides off into the sunset, and certainly will be motivated in a contract year.