Other Sports: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): Vegas, Baby! (2023 Regular Season)

[Hollywood Cannon]

P.S. McCaffrey > Scott

 

[JojoTheWhale]

The Rams are everything you could want in a low playoff seed. They'll probably lose, but Stafford's highs are so high that they can beat anyone.

P.S. McCaffrey > Scott

Aiyuk blocking on that long run is going to be played in meetings by every high school offensive staff in the country next fall.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Aiyuk blocking on that long run is going to be played in meetings by every high school offensive staff in the country next fall.

Aiyuk > Jefferson

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

The Rams are everything you could want in a low playoff seed. They'll probably lose, but Stafford's highs are so high that they can beat anyone.



Aiyuk blocking on that long run is going to be played in meetings by every high school offensive staff in the country next fall.

I heard someone last week say that the Rams were the most dangerous team for SF to face.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

@JojoTheWhale two weeks in a row now with a TD, looks like he’s cracked their starting lineup too. Pretty wild he lasted to the 6th round.

 

[Chinatown88]

@JojoTheWhale two weeks in a row now with a TD, looks like he’s cracked their starting lineup too. Pretty wild he lasted to the 6th round.

I'm still baffled at his draft position. Should've gone like 4th round.

 

[Flybynite]

Can someone explain to me what the hell the Jags just did?

They are losing 31-21. They score a TD with a 1:33 left. It's now 31-27.

They go for 2. Miss it. Onside kick.

Now they were going to have to onside kick anyway because they had no time-outs... But wouldn't you just kick the XP to make it a FIELD GOAL game. So if you recover the onside kick you need a FG to tie it and not have to score a TD?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Can someone explain to me what the hell the Jags just did?

They are losing 31-21. They score a TD with a 1:33 left. It's now 31-27.

They go for 2. Miss it. Onside kick.

Now they were going to have to onside kick anyway because they had no time-outs... But wouldn't you just kick the XP to make it a FIELD GOAL game. So if you recover the onside kick you need a FG to tie it and not have to score a TD?

You play to win the game.

-Herm Edwards

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Can someone explain to me what the hell the Jags just did?

They are losing 31-21. They score a TD with a 1:33 left. It's now 31-27.

They go for 2. Miss it. Onside kick.

Now they were going to have to onside kick anyway because they had no time-outs... But wouldn't you just kick the XP to make it a FIELD GOAL game. So if you recover the onside kick you need a FG to tie it and not have to score a TD?

OT is worse than a coinflip. That's the whole explanation. They're a dog in the game.

There's this esoteric explanation from Seth Walder if it makes more sense:

Down four points: It's better to go for two here, starting with roughly 8-9 minutes or less in the fourth quarter. Here's how you can think about it: Imagine you're down three points driving late in the fourth quarter, but you knew the result of overtime in advance. It would change how you played. If you knew you were going to win in OT, you could kick a field goal to win. But if you knew you were going to lose, you'd go for it on fourth downs and try to score a touchdown.

Going for two down four points is the equivalent to finding out the result of OT in advance. It's almost a 50/50, just like overtime. And it lets you know if you need to score a field goal or touchdown on the next drive.

 

[Flybynite]

OT is worse than a coinflip. That's the whole explanation. They're a dog in the game.

There's this esoteric explanation from Seth Walder if it makes more sense:

I get some of that... but I think time and circumstances needs to matter. There's a huge difference between being down 4 points with 8 to 9 minutes on the clock and being down 4 points with no time-outs and about 1:20 left.

I'd like to see actual scenario results showing the odds TBH. It would need to 'scale' based on scenarios.

I guess it just comes down to odds of making a 2 point conversion plus making a FG with 1:20 left are better than the odds of just having to make a FG with 1:20 left and win in OT?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I get some of that... but I think time and circumstances needs to matter. There's a huge difference between being down 4 points with 8 to 9 minutes on the clock and being down 4 points with no time-outs and about 1:20 left.

I'd like to see actual scenario results showing the odds TBH. It would need to 'scale' based on scenarios.

The less time left, the more true it is. That's the natural progression of getting closer to OT.

I guess it just comes down to odds of making a 2 point conversion plus making a FG with 1:20 left are better than the odds of just having to make a FG with 1:20 left and win in OT?

That's part of it, yep. But going for 2 only has to be half as "good" as kicking to clearly be correct when you're a dog in OT. The goal is winning, not extending game time.

I know what some smart teams do is have a sliding scale of these decision charts. If you're a 3 Point favorite, these are the percentages. If the coach thinks they're not playing well and wants what happens in a Pick Em, they'll have that too. Same goes for playing super well and 5 or 6 Point favorites.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Nobody on KC can catch.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Nobody on KC can catch.

I'm about to drive over there with a hacksaw and start cutting them off.

CATCH THE F***ING BALL!

 

[Halladay]

Nobody on KC can catch.

Could they even catch a cold or std?

 

[CutOnDime97]

In 2 fantasy leagues, QBs are Herbert and Mahomes. PU.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Jawaan Taylor again. f*** my life

This all has to at least partially have to do with Matt Nagy. It has to be his fault in part.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@Chinatown88 Ja'Quan McMillan is why I'll never be able to quit these DBs without measurables that just make plays. When they hit late, they're Home Runs. That's a UDFA.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

In 2 fantasy leagues, QBs are Herbert and Mahomes. PU.

The one year I get Mahomes in fantasy he decides to be average at best. Figures.

 

[FLYguy3911]

@Chinatown88 Ja'Quan McMillan is why I'll never be able to quit these DBs without measurables that just make plays. When they hit late, they're Home Runs. That's a UDFA.

Waiting for the Amik Robertson breakout.

Speaking of ECU UDFAs, Keaton Mitchell is averaging 9 yards per carry this year lol.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@Flybynite One of the sharpest sharps in the universe.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Jawaan Taylor again. f*** my life

This all has to at least partially have to do with Matt Nagy. It has to be his fault in part.

What do you reckon for tonight, Cap? The classic solid game but NFCE season split?

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

What do you reckon for tonight, Cap? The classic solid game but NFCE season split?

Yeah, maybe so, Tugfart. I think there's a stat that in the week after playing the Niners, teams usually haven't won (I don't know the numbers). That's the only reason I think the Cowboys have an advantage. The other is maybe the Eagles secondary being less than great. But our fat coach just had cheeseburger removal surgery, so I don't know how sharp he will be - he is usually completely round.

 

[DancingPanther]

Expecting more misery tonight. Have Harry Potter and WhiskHeat on standby. Short leash

 

[Kermit the Prog]

Sooooo glad I took Justin Jefferson first overall.

 

[Flybynite]

@Flybynite One of the sharpest sharps in the universe.

Honestly. I was more accepting before you started talking about incorporating the point spread into the decision making process. So theoretically game starts as a pick 'em. Betting public makes the team a 'dog' and somehow that should factor into the decision the coach makes at the end of the game?