JojoTheWhale
"You should keep it." -- Striiker
- May 22, 2008
- 35,954
- 111,088
We have decades of data that says no one can win close games at this rate consistently. That doesn't mean that they can't straighten some things out and start winning by more. None of these metrics are calling them anything but a good team. Last year, FPI had them up at the top of the league with KC. It's not a metric that cares as much who you beat because it's not as predictive on the whole.
As far as betting markets, part of that is a popularity contest. The best preseason wager in sports for the last ~15 years has been the Lakers Under on Wins. It's not because they underperform reasonable expectations every year. Sportsbooks exist to make money, not to hand out predictive information.
As far as betting markets, part of that is a popularity contest. The best preseason wager in sports for the last ~15 years has been the Lakers Under on Wins. It's not because they underperform reasonable expectations every year. Sportsbooks exist to make money, not to hand out predictive information.