Damnit... all this time before the draft has me wanting to completely re-do my draft board.
I hope Ottawa gets cute and does the same thing.
Damnit... all this time before the draft has me wanting to completely re-do my draft board.
As long as we don't take a D or G, I will be happy.
1- Alexis Lafreniere
2- Quinton Byfield
3- Lucas Raymond
4- Tim Stutzle
5- Jamie Drysdale
6- Cole Perfetti
7- Yaroslav Askarov
8- Marco Rossi
9- Anton Lundell
10- Alexander Holtz
11- Connor Zary
12- Jake Sanderson
13- Mavrik Bourque
14- Seth Jarvis
15- Dawson Mercer
16- Brendan Brisson
17- Jack Quinn
18- Jacob Perrault
19- Rodion Amirov
20- Kaiden Guhle
21- Hendrix Lapierre (like him better than this... without concussions would probably have him #8-13ish)
22- Noel Gunler
23- Lukas Reichel
24- Dylan Holloway
25- William Wallinder
26- Braden Schneider
27- Vasily Ponomaryov
28- Jan Mysak
29- Thomas Bordeleau
30- Martin Chromiak
31- JJ Peterka
----------------
32- Ryan O'Rourke
33- Marat Khusnutdinov
34- Helge Grans
35- Daniel Torgersson
36- Alexander Pashin
37- Ridly Greig
38- Jeremie Poirer
39- Tyson Foerster
40- Tyler Tullio
HM- Hirvonen, Guschin, Barron, Cormier, Robins, Niederbach, Nybeck
Players I like more since doing this: Mitchell Miller, Dmitri Ramshevsky, Jacob Perrault, Connor Zary, Emil Heineman
I would probably flop Drysdale and Perfetti, at least I would if I was drafting for us.
I would probably bump down O'Rourke and Poirer. Also probably would swap Pashin for Ramshevsky/Heineman... even though I am a big fan of that kid. But other 2 guys have a way higher floor.
Maybe I'll just make a new list at some point, guess we have some plenty of time before the draft still....
1- Alexis Lafreniere
2- Quinton Byfield
3- Cole Perfetti
4- Lucas Raymond
5- Tim Stutzle
6- Noel Gunler
7- Jamie Drysdale
8- Jake Sanderson
9- Marco Rossi
10- Anton Lundell
11- Yaroslav Askarov
12- Alexander Holtz
Only really paid attention to the top half of the draft given Detroit's record but as you can see not a big Holtz/Rossi fan and am very high on Gunler being in the conversation of picks within the 5th-7th range.
I am shocked that you view Gunler as top 5-7 pick but have Holtz entirely outside of the top 10; I'm intrigued in the mental gymnastics here to come to this conclusion if you don't mind elaborating what you prioritize and how you see Holtz lagging compared to Gunler.
I am shocked that you view Gunler as top 5-7 pick but have Holtz entirely outside of the top 10; I'm intrigued in the mental gymnastics here to come to this conclusion if you don't mind elaborating what you prioritize and how you see Holtz lagging compared to Gunler.
No mental gymnastics here. Gunler had an underrated season with minimal TOI with good offensive and shot impact much like Raymond. I'm reasonably confident he'll be an NHLer.
Holtz's poor natural defensive awareness and one dimensional offense makes me not a fan of the player in general. I don't think he's near the tier of Raymond, Perfetti etc. I also question if he has top line potential, and best case scenario I see him as a more 2nd line winger/2nd PP unit player, if that. Just too many holes in his game for me.
A couple players from every draft around the 7th-13th mark don't pan out as they hope anyways, and I feel like I've seen too many Alexander Holtzes over the years to think much of him personally. But I'll be more than willing to eat crow if he does reach the potential many do seem to think he has.
I made a similar post in the draft thread, but it's feels like this post belonged in this thread more so than the general discussion. Over the last month or so I've created a very rudimentary prospect evaluation model based on the data from pick224. The model only looks at first time eligible players and works by assigning an expected pick value to the prospect by comparing the players production to historical values for the league that they played in. Depending on a players production they were given an expected pick value that could range between 3 & 250 - 3 meaning they produced at a top 3 picks rate of production and 250 meaning they should be undrafted.
The CHL leagues have the most data and are the ones in which I'm the most confident in the results, as well there were no professional leagues used so that means players in the DEL, SHL, Liiga, etc. would not be included. There are still some issues with the model, I think the model overvalues offensive defenceman a little bit too much and Russian dmen are just weird, but given the simplicity it's something I'm willing to accept. I redid the 2010-2019 drafts with my model selecting for the Red Wings and I'm quite happy with the results so I figured I'd share the 2020 list.
TL;DR: Model ranks players based on 4 different inputs, gives the player an expected pick value depending on those inputs. The higher the expected pick the better the better the prospect looks in the models eyes. While there are no expected pick values given each tier contains players within 5 - 15 expected picks of one another. Anyways, enough rambling this is the models list:
Tier NAME
1 Marco Rossi
1 Quinton Byfield
1 Cole Perfetti
1 Seth Jarvis
1 Alexis Lafreniere
1 Anton Johannesson
-------------
2 William Villeneuve
2 Jeremie Poirier
2 Jamie Drysdale
----------------
3 Zion Nybeck
3 Connor Zary
3 Tomi Niku
3 Shakir Mukhamadullin
3 Rodion Amirov
3 Emil Heineman
3 Veeti Miettinen
3 Tristen Robins
3 Jack Quinn
3 Emil Andrae
3 Sam Colangelo
---------------
4 Sergei Safin-Tregubov
4 Joni Jurmo
4 Jacob Perreault
4 Mavrik Bourque
4 Justin Sourdif
4 Martin Chromiak
4 Pavel Novak
4 Jack Finley
4 Tyson Foerster
4 Ozzy Wiesblatt
4 Jake Neighbours
4 Lukas Cormier
4 Dmitry Ovchinnikov
---------------
5 Tyler Tullio
5 Ridly Greig
5 Daniel Torgersson
5 Dawson Mercer
5 Maxim Beryozkin
5 Jacob Dion
5 Alec Belanger
5 Luke Evangelista
5 Kasper Puutio
5 James Hardie
5 Brandon Coe
5 Donovan Sebrango
5 Jan Mysak
5 Rory Kerins
5 Connor McClennon
5 Sean Farrell
5 Daniil Gushchin
5 Braden Schneider
5 Hugo Styf
5 Ryan Francis
5 Alexander Pashin
5 Maxim Nevolin
5 Marat Khusnutdinov
5 Kasper Simontaival
5 Miguel Tourigny
5 Daniil L. Zaitsev
5 Samuel Knazko
5 Helge Grans
5 Kaiden Guhle
5 Evan Vierling
5 Jacob Truscott
5 Zayde Wisdom
5 Cross Hanas
5 Oskar Magnusson
5 William Dufour
5 Danil Aimurzin
----------------
6 Mitchell Miller
6 Jake Sanderson
6 Brendan Brisson
6 Nikita Yefremov
6 Ryan O'Rourke
6 Isaak Phillips
6 Ryker Evans
6 Kyle Crnkovic
6 Lukas Svejkovsky
6 Hendrix Lapierre
6 Reid Valade
6 Colby Ambrosio
------------------
7 Jack Thompson
7 Eamon Powell
7 Jaromir Pytlik
7 Hayden Fowler
7 Thomas Bordeleau
7 Carson Bantle
7 Oscar Johnsson
7 Brady Burns
7 Bogdan Trineyev
7 Thimo Nickl
7 Hannes Nordstrom
7 Ivan Zinchenko
I don't believe the model is great at selecting in the first round, there's a lot more nuance in those first 31 picks; however, I think where it shines is highlighting players that may be undervalued and are falling in the draft. For this years draft I think it's look like the best value picks could be Anton Johannesson, Tomi Niku, Rory Kerins, Kasper Puutio, Pavel Novak, Alexander Pashin, Brandon Coe, and Veeti Miettinen.
One thing to note about the tiers is that there is a steady drop off in terms of how likely the prospect was to make the NHL. the 7th tier was chosen to be the cut off as this was the point in which prospects with less than a 104 expected pick value were selected. In the period I used for testing just 8% of players selected with a value of 104 or greater became NHLers. So, while there are some interesting prospects outside of the range, I'd probably let another team select them and go for the prospects the model had deemed to be safer.
Did you factor in age or birth date? Because I really think it should be.
For example - I definitely feel like what kids like Ridly Greig did is more impressive if you consider their age.
Rank Player
1 Alexis Lafreniere
--------------
2 Quinton Byfield
--------------
3 Marco Rossi
4 Tim Stutzle
5 Lucas Raymond
6 Cole Perfetti
--------------
7 Anton Lundell
8 Jamie Drysdale
9 Seth Jarvis
10 Alexander Holtz
11 Yaroslav Askarov
--------------
12 Jan Mysak
13 Mavrik Bourque
14 Lukas Cormier
15 Connor Zary
16 Noel Gunler
17 Rodion Amirov
18 Jacob Perreault
--------------
19 Zion Nybeck
20 Dylan Holloway
21 Jack Quinn
22 Lukas Reichel
23 Jeremie Poirier
24 Jake Sanderson
25 Marat Khusnutdinov
26 Dawson Mercer
27 Sam Colangelo
--------------
28 Martin Chromiak
29 Tyson Foerster
30 Daniil Gushchin
31 Emil Andrae
32 Roni Hirvonen
33 Dmitry Ovchinnikov
34 Alexander Pashin
35 Hendrix Lapierre
36 Daniel Torgersson
37 William Villeneuve
38 Ryan O'Rourke
39 Brendan Brisson
--------------
40 Veeti Miettinen
41 Luke Evangelista
42 Yevgeni Oksentyuk
43 Emil Heineman
44 Kasper Simontaival
45 Roby Jarventie
46 Helge Grans
47 Joel Blomqvist
48 Connor McClennon
49 Ridly Greig
50 Jack Finley
51 Brett Berard
52 Sean Farrell
53 Thomas Bordeleau
54 Kaiden Guhle
55 Pavel Novak
56 Ozzy Wiesblatt
57 Jacob Dion
--------------
58 John-Jason Peterka
59 Jake Neighbours
60 Justin Sourdif
61 Ryan Francis
62 Tristen Robins
63 Braden Schneider
64 Tyler Tullio
65 Evan Vierling
66 James Hardie
67 Justin Barron
68 Carter Savoie
69 Michael Benning
70 William Wallinder
71 Oskar Magnusson
72 Maxim Beryozkin
73 Maxim Nevolin
74 Danil Aimurzin
--------------
75 Topi Niemela
76 Brandon Coe
77 Zayde Wisdom
78 Kyle Crnkovic
79 Mitchell Miller
80 Colby Ambrosio
81 Samuel Knazko
82 Joni Jurmo
83 Theodor Niederbach
84 Oliver Tarnstrom
85 Ivan Didkovsky
86 Alex Cotton
87 Ronan Seeley
88 Tomi Niku
--------------
88 Mikael Pyyhtia
89 Juuso Maenpaa
90 Eemil Viro
91 Shakir Mukhamadullin
92 Pavel Gogolev
93 Vasili Ponomaryov
94 Xavier Simoneau
95 Rory Kerins
96 Brady Burns
97 Benjamin Baumgartner
98 Dameon Hunt
99 Alec Belanger
--------------
100 Jean-Luc Foudy
101 Billy Constantinou
102 Yegor Sokolov
103 William Dufour
104 Kasper Puutio
105 Carson Bantle
106 Stephen Haliday
107 Eamon Powell
108 Brock Faber
109 Thimo Nickl
110 Tomas Chlubna
111 Karel Klikorka
112 Jaromir Pytlik
113 Wyatt Schingoethe
--------------
113 Riley McCourt
114 Yaroslav Likhachyov
115 Gage Goncalves
116 Eli Zummack
117 Yegor Chinakhov
118 Dmitry Sheshin
119 Maxim Musorov
120 Maxim Marushev
121 Petr Hasek
122 Vladislav Myagkov
123 Yegor Stepanov
124 Viktor Persson
Players in Italic are over-agers
Some quick notes:
- For the most part the rankings were a mix of using NHLe and age and era adjusted ES and PP scoring numbers. I've seen a few players play via WJC and some CHL games, but not in a large enough sample so I tried to not let those viewings bias my rankings.
- Each "--------------" represents a tier shift. Players within a tier are pretty much interchangable. The tiers really begin to blend around 40 and you could argue for players to be higher or lower and you'd valid points for each side. The last tier are interesting players that could be around in the 6th/7th round.
- Of the 112 players ranked in the had 79 forwards, 31 defenceman and 2 goalies. This is not a good draft for defenceman at all and I expect NHL teams to reach considerably on them leaving a number of good forwards available for the later rounds. I only ranked 2 goalies because they're really the only 2 I reaaaaally like and would consider using a non 5th-7th round pick on.
- I think you can get solid middle 6 players/2nd pairing dmen all the way to 87, after that I think it's mostly longshots.
- The players I'm highest on relative to consensus are: Rossi, Cormier, Colangelo, Dion, Ovchinnikov, Finley, Oksentyuk, Niku, and Pyyhtia.
- The players I'm lowest on are: Pytlik, Ponomaryov, Foudy, Guhle, Schneider, Wallinder, Niederbach, and Peterka.
Tier | NAME | DY+/- |
1 | Alexis Lafreniere | DY |
2 | Quinton Byfield | DY |
3 | Marco Rossi | DY |
3 | Cole Perfetti | DY |
3 | Lucas Raymond | DY |
3 | Tim Stutzle | DY |
4 | Anton Lundell | DY |
4 | Jamie Drysdale | DY |
4 | Seth Jarvis | DY |
4 | Alexander Holtz | DY |
4 | Yaroslav Askarov | DY |
5 | Connor Zary | DY |
5 | Rodion Amirov | DY |
5 | Mavrik Bourque | DY |
5 | Jan Mysak | DY |
5 | Noel Gunler | DY |
5 | Lukas Reichel | DY |
5 | Jake Sanderson | DY |
6 | William Villeneuve | DY |
6 | Jeremie Poirier | DY |
6 | Zion Nybeck | DY |
6 | Jack Quinn | DY |
6 | Sam Colangelo | DY |
6 | Jacob Perreault | DY |
6 | Marat Khusnutdinov | DY |
6 | Dylan Holloway | DY |
7 | Alexander Pashin | DY |
7 | Veeti Miettinen | DY |
7 | Tristen Robins | DY |
7 | Martin Chromiak | DY |
7 | Tyson Foerster | DY |
7 | Lukas Cormier | DY |
7 | Dmitry Ovchinnikov | DY |
7 | Daniel Torgersson | DY |
7 | Dawson Mercer | DY |
7 | Daniil Gushchin | DY |
7 | Hendrix Lapierre | DY |
7 | Roni Hirvonen | DY |
7 | Emil Andrae | DY |
7 | Anton Johannesson | DY |
8 | Justin Sourdif | DY |
8 | Pavel Novak | DY |
8 | Jack Finley | DY |
8 | Ozzy Wiesblatt | DY |
8 | Jake Neighbours | DY |
8 | Ridly Greig | DY |
8 | Luke Evangelista | DY |
8 | Connor McClennon | DY |
8 | Braden Schneider | DY |
8 | Sean Farrell | DY |
8 | Emil Heineman | |
8 | Kasper Simontaival | DY |
8 | Helge Grans | DY |
8 | Kaiden Guhle | DY |
8 | Brendan Brisson | DY |
8 | Ryan O'Rourke | DY |
8 | William Wallinder | DY |
8 | Roby Jarventie | DY |
8 | Alex Cotton | DY+1 |
8 | Yevgeni Oksentyuk | DY+1 |
8 | Brett Berard | DY |
8 | Michael Benning | DY |
8 | Topi Niemela | DY |
9 | Samuel Johannesson | DY+1 |
9 | Jacob Dion | DY |
9 | Ryan Francis | DY |
9 | Thomas Bordeleau | DY |
9 | Tomi Niku | DY |
9 | Joni Jurmo | DY |
9 | Tyler Tullio | DY |
9 | Maxim Beryozkin | DY |
9 | James Hardie | DY |
9 | Brandon Coe | DY |
9 | Rory Kerins | DY |
9 | Maxim Nevolin | DY |
9 | Samuel Knazko | DY |
9 | Evan Vierling | DY |
9 | Zayde Wisdom | DY |
9 | Jacob Truscott | DY |
9 | Oskar Magnusson | DY |
9 | Mitchell Miller | DY |
9 | Colby Ambrosio | DY |
9 | John-Jason Peterka | DY |
9 | Carter Savoie | DY |
9 | Benjamin Baumgartner | DY+2 |
9 | Theodor Niederbach | DY |
10 | Billy Constantinou | DY+1 |
10 | Yegor Sokolov | DY+2 |
10 | Shakir Mukhamadullin | DY |
10 | Alec Belanger | DY |
10 | Kasper Puutio | DY |
10 | Miguel Tourigny | DY |
10 | William Dufour | DY |
10 | Danil Aimurzin | DY |
10 | Eamon Powell | DY |
10 | Donovan Sebrango | DY |
10 | Cross Hanas | DY |
10 | Kyle Crnkovic | DY |
10 | Brady Burns | DY |
10 | Alex Laferriere | DY |
10 | Vasili Ponomaryov | DY |
10 | Pavel Gogolev | DY+2 |
10 | Justin Bergeron | DY+2 |
10 | Axel Rindell | DY+2 |
10 | Justin Barron | DY |
10 | Oliver Tarnstrom | DY |
11 | Sergei Safin-Tregubov | DY |
11 | Jean-Luc Foudy | DY |
11 | Xavier Simoneau | DY+1 |
11 | Isaak Phillips | DY |
11 | Ryker Evans | DY |
11 | Lukas Svejkovsky | DY |
11 | Reid Valade | DY |
11 | Jack Thompson | DY |
11 | Jaromir Pytlik | DY |
11 | Oscar Johnsson | DY |
11 | Bogdan Trineyev | DY |
11 | Ivan Didkovsky | DY |
11 | Juuso Maenpaa | DY |
11 | Charlie Desroches | DY |
11 | Pavel Tyutnev | DY |
11 | Viktor Persson | DY |
11 | Gage Goncalves | DY+1 |
11 | Riley McCourt | DY+2 |
11 | Ilya Solovyov | DY+2 |
11 | Louka Henault | DY+1 |
11 | Gunnarwolfe Fontaine | DY+1 |
11 | Ty Jackson | DY+1 |
11 | Mikael Pyyhtia | DY |
11 | Maxim Marushev | DY+3 |
12 | Thimo Nickl | DY |
12 | Victor Mancini | DY |
12 | Ivan Zinchenko | DY |
12 | Jake Boltmann | DY |
12 | Stephen Halliday | DY |
12 | Wyatt Schingoethe | DY |
12 | Luke Tuch | DY |
12 | Rami Maatta | DY |
12 | Simon Kubicek | DY |
12 | Ronan Seeley | DY |
12 | Tomas Chlubna | DY |
12 | Karel Klikorka | DY |
12 | Eli Zummack | DY+2 |
12 | Elliot Ekmark | DY |
12 | Petr Hasek | DY |
12 | Vladislav Myagkov | DY |
12 | Yegor Stepanov | DY+2 |
This was my draft board last go around and not much has changed except for a few players that I moved up or down a few spots. I think the biggest movers were Villeneuve, Poirier, Sanderson, Johanesson, and some of the overagers.
- I still have Rossi at 3, but I really think anyone from my 3rd tier will end up becoming an impact player. They all have statically profiles of past top 3 picks and should make an impact relative soon.
- I think at least 1 of the players in my 5th tier should be available at #32, but if there isn't I think almost everyone in that 6th tier projects to be a 2nd line Forward or 2nd Pairing Dman.
- I really like the depth of this class and I think there should be a ton of interesting prospects available for us throughout the draft. I'd consider trading back with one of later 2nds if it meant we could get another mid round pick and draft someone like Novak, Pashin, Cotton, etc.
- This drafts strength is on the wing in the later rounds so I really hope we just go BPA as the defensive crop this year is quite underwhelming overall.
- Anton Johanneson could be the steal of the draft. I'd really have no qualms if we took him at #32
Why the Johanneson love exactly. I don't mind the player but am not begging to draft him necessarily.
This is just from his statistical profile, but in my prospect model he compares pretty favorable to prospects like Boqvist and Brannstrom. He didn't play much in his D-1 season and I think that has led to him being a bit under scouted and under appreciated. He was the top offensive dmen in the U16 in his D-2 season and I wonder what he could've done last year if he was healthy. If he had played more last year and had been able to play in the Hlinka & the U18s this year I think there's a real chance he could be looked at as at least a top 30 pick, if not top 15 in a similar way that Brannstrom was in 2017.
I think he is the most skilled offensive dman from Sweden this draft and is my favorite of the class. Even when you account for his inflated totals at ES he still comes out quite favorable and would be the top offensive D from Sweden this year. He may be undersized, but he's not bad defensively and he is a fine to good mobile defender. I think due to his size and lack of exposure he'll fall to the mid 2nd or later where he begins to become an excellent value selection.
I know he's not always well received here, but Scouching does a good job of breaking down Johannesson's game.
The Athletic article of most debatable prospects.
NHL Draft prospects up for debate: Who causes the biggest divide among scouts?