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People are not Ready for the Massive Cap Increases

Note sure what the OP is getting at.


While the cap is going up meaning teams have more to spend and it also means players will demand more. Teams will still be in cap hell due to how much the players will be demanding. Guys like Allan Walsh are already talking about how much more they will be able to get for their clients.
 
Crazy Cizikas said:
The price of gold is affected by many factors. Two big factors are inflation and global politics. When people feel uncertain about their nation currency, they buy commodities like gold (or pork bellies, which is used to make bacon, which you might find in a bacon and lettuce and tomato sandwhich). This increase in demand leads to the price increase of commodities.
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Pork belly prices have been climbing all morning, which means that everybody's waiting for it to hit top dollar so they can buy expensive and go short.

It's like Christmas is right around the corner and the owner's ain't gonna have money to buy the GI Joe w/kung fu grip. Mrs. Owner's ain't gonna like that and no love will be reciprocated. They are panicked, I can hear them. They are saying BUY! BUY! BUY!
 
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Eventually the percentages of the cap the players make all end up the same. There will be some bargain contracts for a few years and then everything will be pretty much the exact same as it is now.
 
Brookbank said:
More money chasing the same finite amount of players. NHL GMs cant be saved from themselves.

Some GM will step up to the plate and proudly sign some player to a criminally high number.

Just like after the lockout when Brad Richards was signed for 7 million right out of the gate
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Eichel in more modern times, totally upending the market for value
 
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chuckt said:
I don't think people are really understanding what will likely happen with the massive cap jumps in the oncoming years. It's not as simple as saying it's going up 10%, so new signings will just be a 10% increase on previous comparables.

In any given year, there are 2-4 prize free agents that are difference makers. Then there are usually 8-10 depth players that are solid, followed by all the rest which are replacement level or slightly above.

Every single team will have a huge amount of cap space. Take a look at the thread asking which teams are positioned to exploit the new jumping cap. Every single team could be named.

There are not enough quality players to meet the demand. What's going to happen is that teams will enter the season with a great deal of cap space, because they won't be able to find players that are measurably better than their prospects that will be graduating.

Extra cap space that isn't used is wasted. If you end the year with 15 million and never spend it, you don't get a benefit. This is going to sound ridiculous, but a team would be better off paying Rantanen 18 million than letting that cap space sit by with no options. Of course term and future contracts need to be a factor, but this will be less of a worry than in previous years due to the cap jumping every single year for the foreseeable future. Deals will only get worse each year as cap inflation continues to build.

I imagine a big effect of all this will be that contracts with perceived negative value today will actually have positive value tomorrow. Jones, Nurse, Huberdeau, Stephenson, and others. Teams would be better off paying Huberdeau for 60 points and hoping he can find a spark and reclaim some of his former glory, than letting that money rot or spending 9 million on a player with a 60 points ceiling that is more likely to produce 40-50.

Maybe I'm out to lunch, but the supply of quality players available to sign is incredibly small, and the demand is about to explode.
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Good post as a whole, but I do think the bolded is faulty planning. Rantanen (or any other major UFA) isn’t going to sign a short term deal. Whoever signs him is going to be giving him 7 years, so that 7x$18M contract might really be worse than just taking a pass.

In regards to the cap jumping up every year, all I can say is that in the cap era alone we’ve already had a global recession and a global pandemic. There’s nothing to say there won’t be a massive economic crisis within the next couple of years. And that’s before you even get into the likelihood that sports/hockey hits a growth ceiling for any number of reasons.

I’m not saying teams shouldn’t plan on moderate growth year-over-year, but the whole reason we’re experiencing this sudden leap is because revenue is correcting after an unforeseen financial crisis. Expecting it to continue on its current trajectory uninterrupted is, in itself, a very risky behavior which carries bust potential.
 
chuckt said:
I don't think people are really understanding what will likely happen with the massive cap jumps in the oncoming years. It's not as simple as saying it's going up 10%, so new signings will just be a 10% increase on previous comparables.

In any given year, there are 2-4 prize free agents that are difference makers. Then there are usually 8-10 depth players that are solid, followed by all the rest which are replacement level or slightly above.

Every single team will have a huge amount of cap space. Take a look at the thread asking which teams are positioned to exploit the new jumping cap. Every single team could be named.

There are not enough quality players to meet the demand. What's going to happen is that teams will enter the season with a great deal of cap space, because they won't be able to find players that are measurably better than their prospects that will be graduating.

Extra cap space that isn't used is wasted. If you end the year with 15 million and never spend it, you don't get a benefit. This is going to sound ridiculous, but a team would be better off paying Rantanen 18 million than letting that cap space sit by with no options. Of course term and future contracts need to be a factor, but this will be less of a worry than in previous years due to the cap jumping every single year for the foreseeable future. Deals will only get worse each year as cap inflation continues to build.

I imagine a big effect of all this will be that contracts with perceived negative value today will actually have positive value tomorrow. Jones, Nurse, Huberdeau, Stephenson, and others. Teams would be better off paying Huberdeau for 60 points and hoping he can find a spark and reclaim some of his former glory, than letting that money rot or spending 9 million on a player with a 60 points ceiling that is more likely to produce 40-50.

Maybe I'm out to lunch, but the supply of quality players available to sign is incredibly small, and the demand is about to explode.
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If teams are not spending to the cap, wouldn't that mean escrow goes away?
 
ToDavid said:
Why should we be protecting GMs from themselves? Bad contracts are part of the fun.

If teams wish to avoid bad contracts, simply make better decisions.
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Yeah? You don't wish Toronto had some other means to get rid of Marleau besides sending a 1st to Carolina that became Seth Jarvis?

Okay.
 
ShakenNotStirred said:
Pork belly prices have been climbing all morning, which means that everybody's waiting for it to hit top dollar so they can buy expensive and go short.

It's like Christmas is right around the corner and the owner's ain't gonna have money to buy the GI Joe w/kung fu grip. Mrs. Owner's ain't gonna like that and no love will be reciprocated. They are panicked, I can hear them. They are saying BUY! BUY! BUY!
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I have a report about FCOJ that might interest you.
 
wow-you-are-not-prepared.gif


People think Rantanen is nuts for demanding 14mil are the same ones that will be shocked in 2 years when that is the norm for a top line forward or top pairing defenseman.
 
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Golden_Jet said:
It’s not set in stone because of the 2 year lag calculation in CBA/MOU now.

Also from Seravalli.
Frank Seravalli: Because the NHL has been operating on a two-year lag formula on this current CBA, they had a chance to take a step back and have this be based closer to actual previous revenue, as opposed to what future projection revenue is going to be. The changing of the formula has allowed them ample opportunity to put in stone an ironclad agreement with the NHL and NHLPA. Not really a projection, moreso an agreement.

Of course, as they noted, it is subject to minor increases, up or down, but for the most part, you can now operate, if you’re an NHL team or an agent, with some degree of certainty here. I think the other really interesting part of this is not just the part of the increase in the upper limit, but what a lot of teams, especially smaller-market teams, are going to be paying attention to today is how much the salary floor is increasing.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Breaking down the NHL, NHLPA’s new salary cap agreement

The league has revealed that the cap could be up over $100 million by the 2026-27 season.
www.dailyfaceoff.com www.dailyfaceoff.com
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The best part of this whole topic is that the league and PA managed to work all this out without any drama.
 
It's funny to see people whine about Shesterkin making too much when someone like Rantanen will get paid way more for... similar impact?
 
Basically a pay raise for everyone, with the stars getting the biggest cut. Bad GMs are going to look even worse in the coming years. It'll be fun to see some of the horrific contracts handed out by the usual suits.
 
WarriorofTime said:
It's funny to see people whine about Shesterkin making too much when someone like Rantanen will get paid way more for... similar impact?
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Have you seen Shesterkin play this season? On his average days, he’s bad. On his good days, he’s average. And his slow-motion eight-year heist hasn’t even started yet.
 
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