PENS vs Montreal Canadiens Round 1 (Best Of Five)

[Peat]

We have a pretty good and experienced coaching staff too... and they have more than a month to prepare for the Habs. I mean, it works both ways and they do not have a distinct advantage on that front.

Tbf, I think it helps them more than us, as I think it's going to flatten the gap between the teams a litte.

You're right about the rest of it though. Not that people aren't right about the potential banana skins but that's what they are.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'm not really thinking about 2010... I'm thinking more like long, troubling streaks just last year (injuries were absolutely a factor but not all) plus what they looked like the LAST time this team played a playoff series. Though this isn't actually a playoff series... technically. Probably. I think?

But yeah I mean at least on paper if JUST one of the Penguins top two lines can be productive, the defense can hold things together and not self-immolate and whoever is in net can at least keep them in the game then it should go fine. Julien is a bit troubling, though. But at least this time around the team has Sullivan to match wits as opposed to uh... well... a moron.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Tbf, I think it helps them more than us, as I think it's going to flatten the gap between the teams a litte.

You're right about the rest of it though. Not that people aren't right about the potential banana skins but that's what they are.

It really depends. Great coaching can be a great equalizer, I agree. However, we have great coaching too and they have many more flaws to exploit. Despite being analytic darlings (meaning, they probably have a good system), they were still bottom-dwellers (which means they have shit talent). Maybe they could surprise us in game 1 with a weird game plan, but that advantage would last a period and even then, they do not have the talent to put 3 on us early... unless Murray shits the bed completely. They can neuter us for a while, but I do not see them having enough offense to capitalize on that... unless Murray shits the bed completely. It took them insane luck, Fleury being poor in the last two games, Subban slicing Staal's achilles AND Halak standing on his head to beat us in 7 games in 2010... and THIS Pens team is likely better/deeper + THIS Habs team is a lot worse (Gomez, Cammalleri and Gionta were legit at that time, Markov was a great D, they had 2 good goalies).

Julien is a match-up guy. He'll want Danault/Weber against Crosby. Then... what? Suzuki/Petry against Geno? Suzuki is good and responsible, but he is also very young. Petry is not a defensive defenseman at all. If I am Sully, I deploy Jake/Geno/Rust with Marino behind them against Suzuki/Petry, hell, maybe I even go Letang/Dumo with Geno at times to accentuate that advantage. We should OWN that match up. Danault/Weber can play Sid/Letang to a draw and that would be fine for us. I do think Sid (Sheary and Zucker) and Letang (Dumoulin) would win that match up though. But, honestly, Danault/Gallagher scare me more than Tatar or Drouin or Domi (if he even plays). They can win on both sides of the ice. One of Tatar or Drouin will play with them.

Their fourth line is full of bad players, we probably have the best fourth line (according to analytics) in the league. That line can also be used against Danault's unit at "home" so we can give Sid a few key shifts against shit opposition.

Their special teams have been atrocious all year (and that's why they are analytic darlings, their 5v5 is not that bad). With the talent we have on our PP, we need to exploit that. Also means we can play physical without fear as their PP is crap.

We have speed on every line and can push the pace wave after wave after wave. We will have the puck more, we will shoot more and we have match-ups advantages everywhere. I mean, Carey Price would really have to steal games by himself for them to beat us.

The Habs cannot win 5-4 against us, they need to shut it down and hope to win 2-1 every game. In a short series, it could work, sure. But the talent gap is soooooooooo huge.

I mean, I fail to see what advantage Julien could gain on Sully, even with one month of preparation.

Still, as I said, it is the NHL, so we could be swept even while dominating each and every game. It has happened before and could happen now. Still would be a huge upset and cause for concern. On paper, this Pens team SHOULD be favored against pretty much everybody but Boston and Tampa. Does not guarantee results, but let's not act as if the Habs are a tough match up. They aren't.

 

[BHD]

I understand you guys have 2010 PTSD...

That might be it.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

That might be it.

Let's say the Caps draw the Habs, should they have 2010 PTSD?

Absolutely not.

Deploy Wilson against Petry when you can and create turnover after turnover after turnover. Weber can defend Ovechkin, sure. Danault can neutralize one of their lines, sure.

Caps PP would ANNIHILATE their PK. Habs PP would not scare the Caps so they would play a uber physical game and guys like Wilson and Oshie would be VERY dirty.

This Habs team is not very good. Any top team should wipe the floor with them.

 

[Andy99]

It really depends. Great coaching can be a great equalizer, I agree. However, we have great coaching too and they have many more flaws to exploit. Despite being analytic darlings (meaning, they probably have a good system), they were still bottom-dwellers (which means they have shit talent). Maybe they could surprise us in game 1 with a weird game plan, but that advantage would last a period and even then, they do not have the talent to put 3 on us early... unless Murray shits the bed completely. They can neuter us for a while, but I do not see them having enough offense to capitalize on that... unless Murray shits the bed completely. It took them insane luck, Fleury being poor in the last two games, Subban slicing Staal's achilles AND Halak standing on his head to beat us in 7 games in 2010... and THIS Pens team is likely better/deeper + THIS Habs team is a lot worse (Gomez, Cammalleri and Gionta were legit at that time, Markov was a great D, they had 2 good goalies).

Julien is a match-up guy. He'll want Danault/Weber against Crosby. Then... what? Suzuki/Petry against Geno? Suzuki is good and responsible, but he is also very young. Petry is not a defensive defenseman at all. If I am Sully, I deploy Jake/Geno/Rust with Marino behind them against Suzuki/Petry, hell, maybe I even go Letang/Dumo with Geno at times to accentuate that advantage. We should OWN that match up. Danault/Weber can play Sid/Letang to a draw and that would be fine for us. I do think Sid (Sheary and Zucker) and Letang (Dumoulin) would win that match up though. But, honestly, Danault/Gallagher scare me more than Tatar or Drouin or Domi (if he even plays). They can win on both sides of the ice. One of Tatar or Drouin will play with them.

Their fourth line is full of bad players, we probably have the best fourth line (according to analytics) in the league. That line can also be used against Danault's unit at "home" so we can give Sid a few key shifts against shit opposition.

Their special teams have been atrocious all year (and that's why they are analytic darlings, their 5v5 is not that bad). With the talent we have on our PP, we need to exploit that. Also means we can play physical without fear as their PP is crap.

We have speed on every line and can push the pace wave after wave after wave. We will have the puck more, we will shoot more and we have match-ups advantages everywhere. I mean, Carey Price would really have to steal games by himself for them to beat us.

The Habs cannot win 5-4 against us, they need to shut it down and hope to win 2-1 every game. In a short series, it could work, sure. But the talent gap is soooooooooo huge.

I mean, I fail to see what advantage Julien could gain on Sully, even with one month of preparation.

Still, as I said, it is the NHL, so we could be swept even while dominating each and every game. It has happened before and could happen now. Still would be a huge upset and cause for concern. On paper, this Pens team SHOULD be favored against pretty much everybody but Boston and Tampa. Does not guarantee results, but let's not act as if the Habs are a tough match up. They aren't.

unfortunately Sully has already committed to NOT playing Jake-G-Rust...the Habs will try to take a page from the Isles and clog the NZ and let our talent get frustrated...like most series, Murray or Jarry are going to have to outplay Price because if the Habs play a defensive system first, we’re not going to get a lot of good looks at Price, and we tend to play more aggressive so the Habs will likely get more looks on net

 

[Scandale du Jour]

unfortunately Sully has already committed to NOT playing Jake-G-Rust...the Habs will try to take a page from the Isles and clog the NZ and let our talent get frustrated...like most series, Murray or Jarry are going to have to outplay Price because if the Habs play a defensive system first, we’re not going to get a lot of good looks at Price, and we tend to play more aggressive so the Habs will likely get more looks on net

Still, Zucker - G - Rust or whothef***ever - G -Rust should feast on the Habs's second line/pairing. I would just accentuate the advantage using Jake - Geno - Rust.

They can clog the neutral zone all they want, they do not have the talent the Isles have to control the puck and push the pace.

MAYBE they can contain us 5v5, but then, it becomes a special teams series and we have a huge advantage there.

I mean, there is no rational way to favor the Habs in this match up.

They could win, sure! It is the NHL, upsets happen all the time. But is it LIKELY? Hell no!

 

[Andy99]

Still, Zucker - G - Rust or whothef***ever - G -Rust should feast on the Habs's second line/pairing. I would just accentuate the advantage using Jake - Geno - Rust.

They can clog the neutral zone all they want, they do not have the talent the Isles have to control the puck and push the pace.

MAYBE they can contain us 5v5, but then, it becomes a special teams series and we have a huge advantage there.

I mean, there is no rational way to favor the Habs in this match up.

They could win, sure! It is the NHL, upsets happen all the time. But is it LIKELY? Hell no!

Goaltending and special teams—keys to any playoff series

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Still, Zucker - G - Rust or whothef***ever - G -Rust should feast on the Habs's second line/pairing. I would just accentuate the advantage using Jake - Geno - Rust.

They can clog the neutral zone all they want, they do not have the talent the Isles have to control the puck and push the pace.

MAYBE they can contain us 5v5, but then, it becomes a special teams series and we have a huge advantage there.

I mean, there is no rational way to favor the Habs in this match up.

They could win, sure! It is the NHL, upsets happen all the time. But is it LIKELY? Hell no!

The way to beat clogging the neutral zone is the stretch pass.

Keep passing directly into the teeth of it. If they stop it and come the other way for odd man rushes, keep doing it over and over and over and over again until they get tired of stopping it.

 

[Gurglesons]

Goaltending and special teams—keys to any playoff series

Montreal is horrible on special teams.

 

[Gurglesons]

The good thing is that Sullivan has only been out coached in one series.

The bad thing is Trotz’s Islanders system is similar to Julian in Montreal. That being said, Montreal doesn’t really have the forward horses those Isles had in Eberle, Lee, Bailey, Nelson, and Barzal.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Play-in Preview #2: Pittsburgh vs. Montreal

 

[HandshakeLine]

Wait, Danault is better than Crosby? Am I reading that graphic right? Oh my.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Wait, Danault is better than Crosby? Am I reading that graphic right? Oh my.

I read it as the Habs' 1st line is better than the Pens' 1st line.

Which is defensible if that were how the lines shook out...but we know Guentzel's gonna be with Crosby, not Zucker.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I read it as the Habs' 1st line is better than the Pens' 1st line.

Which is defensible if that were how the lines shook out...but we know Guentzel's gonna be with Crosby, not Zucker.

Ah, yeah... I see it now. Jesus, reading that thing without my contacts in gives me a headache.

Still.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I still don't even see how a line centered by Danault and flanked by Tatar and Gallagher is even close to Zucker + Crosby + whoever, but then again, I'm not a Habs fan, thank the lord.

The only solid that jerk's ever done me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I also have some reservations about trying to grade Zucker-Crosby-Sheary as a line when Zucker played for Minnesota and Sheary played for Buffalo in over 80% of games this year. Tatar-Danault-Gallagher was a fantastic line analytically all year, but we only got to see Zucker-Crosby-Sheary for a handful of games when Crosby wasn't playing that well.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I also have some reservations about trying to grade Zucker-Crosby-Sheary as a line when Zucker played for Minnesota and Sheary played for Buffalo in over 80% of games this year. Tatar-Danault-Gallagher was a fantastic line analytically all year, but we only got to see Zucker-Crosby-Sheary for a handful of games when Crosby wasn't playing that well.

That had occurred to me too. I'm also not sure what WAR is and how it's calculated (since that seems to be the basis of said decision), either, so if someone would be kind enough to illuminate that darkness for me, I'd be much obliged.

 

[Gurglesons]

Crosby’s WAR has been relatively low the past two years from what I remember. Which proves WAR is a flawed stat.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I also have some reservations about trying to grade Zucker-Crosby-Sheary as a line when Zucker played for Minnesota and Sheary played for Buffalo in over 80% of games this year. Tatar-Danault-Gallagher was a fantastic line analytically all year, but we only got to see Zucker-Crosby-Sheary for a handful of games when Crosby wasn't playing that well.

Not having time to build chemistry would be working against that line early in the playoffs too, I'd imagine.

Moot point anyway since it's not looking like that's gonna happen.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not having time to build chemistry would be working against that line early in the playoffs too, I'd imagine.

Moot point anyway since it's not looking like that's gonna happen.

I'm not concerned with this, Zucker looked like a natural fit with Crosby and Sheary has an extensive history of playing with Crosby. My problem was that the line was only together when Crosby wasn't playing that well. It's a sample size problem when trying to evaluate them.

That had occurred to me too. I'm also not sure what WAR is and how it's calculated (since that seems to be the basis of said decision), either, so if someone would be kind enough to illuminate that darkness for me, I'd be much obliged.

It's hockey analytics trying to create a baseball style WAR to evaluate hockey players. I haven't seen a particularly good one yet.

 

[Gurglesons]

Not having time to build chemistry would be working against that line early in the playoffs too, I'd imagine.

Moot point anyway since it's not looking like that's gonna happen.

Good thing they have a month to build chemistry.

Tatar blows anyway. He’s Poni 2.0. Mediocre player getting tons of minutes on a bad team.

Gallagher, Drouin and Armia would be the three forwards I’d be scared of.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'm not concerned with this, Zucker looked like a natural fit with Crosby and Sheary has an extensive history of playing with Crosby. My problem was that the line was only together when Crosby wasn't playing that well. It's a sample size problem when trying to evaluate them.

Well, we're talking about a best-of-5 series, which is conceivably only 3 games long. Not exactly a lot of time to generate chemistry and understand where new players are going to be in game situations...and that's without even mentioning Sheary's last playoffs here, which was anything but cohesive in spite of having virtually the same history with Crosby now as he did then.

Then considering the line they're being compared to contains 3 very good, well-rounded forwards who've killed it the last 2 years together:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

I don't think it would be outrageous at all to give Montreal's 1st line the edge in this series.

But again, it's moot since Guentzel's going to be with Crosby, and that naturally changes the calculation.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Good thing they have a month to build chemistry.

They would be playing a total of 0 NHL games during that period.

That's not the same thing.

I feel like entirely too much time is being spent talking about a line that isn't going to happen anyway, so my interest in this line of discussion is beyond limited.

Tatar blows anyway. He’s Poni 2.0. Mediocre player getting tons of minutes on a bad team.

He's a good part of what makes that line work, and it'd take me about a nanosecond to make a choice between him and Sheary.

 

[Gurglesons]

They would be playing a total of 0 NHL games during that period.

That's not the same thing.

I feel like entirely too much time is being spent talking about a line that isn't going to happen anyway, so my interest in this line of discussion is beyond limited.

I think the bigger thing is WAR is and has been proven to be a horrible stat for hockey.